Nation, be the ramifications are worldwide with the first votes in the two towns of Dixville Notch and mills field, New Hampshire, and then on to the polling occurring right now. With that is information flow, and jon ferro, weve got to bring it right up to the moment. One of the candidates in on his favorite network. Mr. Trump saying he will only declare victory if there is one. I guess that is a change. Jonathan the president adding he think she is winning in texas, florida, and pennsylvania. It might be a little bit of a change, but it is subtle. I dont think the president was ever going to say that he would call the election result if there wasnt one. That wouldnt really make sense. But it does speak to the tension that is coming into this election day in the United States of america. Really absolutely massive area of division between these two candidates at large and the company is split, but the interesting split for many of us looking at this play out is between the early voting that any people assume his skewed democrat and the voting today that most people assume will be skewed public and skewed republican. How big the republican vote is today is absolutely key. Tom we welcome all of you on Bloomberg Radio and television to what we hope will be really good conversation over the coming hours, including jon onros property at 9 00 a. M. Bloomberg television. What i find extraordinary here is we actually get to see the trends anything president ial race. The senate is a complete mystery, isnt it . Lisa a lot of people are pricing in a blue wave. Ae latest from 538 has it at 70 hard percent chance of turning democratic. We are not necessarily going to get a result. It is going to be a nailbiter on all sides. What i am looking at is how the social media aspect will weigh in. I think it has been very interesting to see twitter and facebook try to come up with policies to insulin themselves from some of the same criticisms in 2016 ash back they put warnings on different tweets. I think that is a fascinating develop. Tom i was explaining 1972 to the cherubs last night. There was no social media at that time. What we have seen on tv and radio is the juxtaposition of President Trump with his favorite network, Vice President biden attending church in delaware. We saw instances of that about 40 minutes ago. The view from london, is london engaged in the selection . The view from london and berlin has always been the take that in the previous a ministration before this, president obama had a preference to berlin over london. Theres a comfort question theres a conversation to get places to whether president biden, if we do get one, would do the same thing. Whether he would move more towards berlin and maybe not give lund a treatment this president has. This president talking up the potential of a freetrade agreement with the United Kingdom. It is not clear whether joe biden, if he did win, would be going down the same track. The room or that line from president obama . They will be at the back of the line. Wasnt the best of friends with the u. K. , and you wonder if we get a repeat of that if biden becomes the next president. Tom youve been way out front on the pandemic. In the last 24, 48 hours, we have seen not only dr. Fauci, but dr. Birx make some statements on the pandemic and the serious nature in america. Are they wearing the mask now in the United Kingdom with the grimness of this lockdown . Jonathan theyve started to, and i think we should clarify, they have certainly put out a point of view that is very different to what they have put out on the campaign trail. In england, things are looking down. I think the more important question right now is what happens in the United States. The u. K. , the europeans clearly made mistakes, particularly in the United Kingdom, on how to reopen. Now we have started to see a movie in massachusetts. I think that is really notable. Quite clearly, it is not giving it is not getting the coverage it would normally get. Tom futures up 37. Yields up on the 10 year. We have some dollar weakness as well. Texas has a 38 handles a 38 handle moments ago. Michael zezas is with us of Morgan Stanley, with a foundational extending thats with a foundational understanding of our municipal finance. Every single conversation we says and thenrea there will be infrastructure, and yet there is never infrastructure. What is the political outcome you need so that there can be infrastructure . Is a necessary condition to getting meaningful infrastructure package, that you end up with a situation where the democrats take the white house and the senate, and keep control of the house. Scenarioded government , there is not much legislation thanng done perhaps other another covid relief package. In a divided government, you have the same problem you had in 2017 and every other time you have complete control by the republic and party. In theory, they are on board with infrastructure spending. In practice, they have not been able to get there because they cannot agree on raising taxes to do it. They are against letting the deficit expand to do it. Up end up sort of twisted without a solution. The Democratic Party is obviously a little more amenable to raising taxes or expanding deficits when it comes to spending. I would say it is a necessary condition that that is the configuration you get. Not a sufficient one because the democrats will have to balance their policy priorities and health care is certainly in the mix, probably a high priority item also. Lisa i think the broader theme to all of your comments is the risk of a divided government when it comes to fiscal spending. How big of a Downside Risk could there be to markets should there be a divided government . It does not appear that that is being priced in. Michael the first thing i would say is most postelection configurations here lead to fiscal expansion. The one that concerns us is the one where the democrats take the white house, but the republicans keep control of the senate. That is not to say that you might not ever get fiscal expansion or covid specific relief in that situation, but you might need a greater demonstration from Economic Data or markets the response is needed. We know where the democrats are on covid relief. They want to go big. Senate republicans are expressing skepticism that the economy needs it, expressing concern about raising deficits further. That this agreement manifests in that type of election outcome, and you might eventually get there, but the fiscal reaction function becomes very reaction he becomes very reactionary as opposed to proactive. Jonathan i am really interested in the conversations were having with clients at the moment. If you were to ask them whether they would prefer to know the outcome of the senate race or the white house race ahead of time, what do you think they would say . Christopher most clients would prefer to know the outcome of the president ial race. The consensus is still that we have a divided government outcome of any type is preferable. Mostly because it creates certainty around policy, or at least that is the perception, rather than the argument that it is nuanced and a little bit different. I do think that is where most investors are paying attention, but they also obviously understand the difference between taking the white house with the senate versus without the senate. Generally speaking, our surveys are agreeing that you get the biggest fiscal boost in that situation. Tom the votes are in in the judiciary, and i believe we have nine justices as the clerks get ready to help Justice Coney barrett. What about the Affordable Care act . What is the Morgan Stanley view on where the Affordable Care act is, lets say in 2022 . Generalize a bit, not specific to the Affordable Care act, but whether or not in 2021 you will have the same level of Government Spending on health care or greater, the situation that makes that true is the democrats taking the white house and the senate, regardless of what the supreme no court the Supreme Court outcome is. One could expect a pretty quick shoulde legislatively the Supreme Court overturned the Affordable Care act. In the situation where the democrats take the white house, republicans keep control of the senate, i think it is trickier to maintain the white house. To the extent that you are looking for Health Care Equity to an extent the configuration that gets you the best outcome there is the democrats winning the white house and the senate. Jonathan appreciate your time. Send our best to the team at Morgan Stanley. Whereike today our days typically, a lot of news slips beneath the radar. This headline does not. The Shanghai Exchange has board, citings changes in the regulatory environment. This comes from a statement about 10 minutes ago or so. Can you speak to the regulatory tension between the Shanghai Exchange and this listing . Lisa we talk about tech regulation in the United States, but this is also going on in china in particular, with chinese regulators going after online lenders. New rules have come out targeting the use of assetbacked securities to finance quick consumer loans. They cited the inability of ant financial to comply. Fascinating at a time where china hopes to double its economy by 2035, that is cracking down on one of its stars. It speaks to a shift in some of the policies in that nation. Jonathan i saw that headline on doubling the economys size over the next couple years. I saw that on lisas twitter. Lisa did you . Jonathan putting out those headlines all the time. I dont know if this derails the listing in hong kong, just the shanghai one. Tom that speaks to the 760 miles between hong kong and shanghai. Guess what . Its a lot bigger divide than 760 miles. This will be fascinating. The Political Tension of the city states of china, and they can speak when they have an opinion. Jonathan that is the news coming out of china. The news coming out of america is where the focus is for the next 24 hours, and perhaps beyond. Alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, im jonathan ferro. On this election day in america, this is bloomberg surveillance. Ritika with the first word news , im ritika gupta. Two small New Hampshire communities that traditionally vote after midnight have already tallied their ballots. It was a clean sweep for joe in dixville march. In millersville, President Trump won 16 of the 21 votes. In vienna, Authorities Say the peoplewho killed seven national. Donian police made a number of rates this morning. In addition to the fidelitys , more werelities wounded in the attack. Global news 24 hours a day, on air and on bloomberg quicktake, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. Im ritika gupta. This is bloomberg. Pres. Trump this will be the most important election in the history of our country. It is going to set a course. It is going to go one way or another, and if it goes the other way, it is going to be a terrible thing, so get out there and vote. Mr. Biden it is time we take back this democracy. We can do this. We are better than weve been. We can be our best. We are the United States of america. God bless you all, and may god protect our troops. Go vote. Jonathan President Trump and former Vice President joe biden at their final rallies ahead of todays election. Alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, im jonathan ferro. For our audience worldwide, this is bloomberg surveillance, live on bloomberg tv and radio. Heres the price action tuesday morning, going into the main event. We add some more weight to the s p 500, up a little more than 1 . We talked about that cyclical rotation beneath the surface of the index level, away from big tech, toward the financials, materials, industrials. In the fx market, everything stronger against the dollar in g10. Eurodollar with a tidy 1. 17 handle again. A lot of talk about what is happening in the bond market at the moment. The curve is steeper, yields are higher, and treasuries are heading south. Yields up to 0. 8671 . Before i wrap this when up, got to throw crude into the mix, bouncing back after an ugly week. , up almoston wti 3 . Tom dow versus nasdaq 100 is important. It continues at this moment. Dow up 1. 4 , nasdaq up 0. 6 . These are little nuances as well. We welcome you on Bloomberg Radio and bloomberg television, where we are going around the nation, looking at polling places. This is an interesting polling place in houston, texas. This is a building to service houston. Ilities in it is part of houston parks and recreation. So many of these around the country, and of course, with in pub with important Public Services to the disabled. Cnn reporting we are now over 100 million in, according to cnn, on total prevoting. Joins us, jon lieber with eurasia group, the u. S. Managing director. An open question to you to begin. What is your number one focus as you begin to look at the mathematics of this election day . Jonathan l florida. It is going to be florida. Florida counts quickly. Biden is ahead, but barely. A leade total could show for biden, and that could shift to trump as a net goes on. If florida looks like it is going to go for biden, this race is over, we can all pack up our bags and get ready for the new inauguration and transition. Jonathan f you are calling, as a house, for a biden win. What do you see in the numbers that gives you that conviction . Jonathan l this has been a steady race, and biden has had a polling lead, despite trumps relatively high Approval Rating given the coronavirus, biden has had the lead since he clinched the nomination in march. Within 2 of Hillary Clinton in 2016, and you saw a collapse in Hillary Clintons numbers over the last 10 days. Brokeded voters towards donald trump. That is just not happen this time around. The trend no trend is suggesting that lead will go away. And all of the swing states that bidenwon that 2016, all needs to do is when one of them. Arizona, texas, georgia, florida, ohio, pennsylvania. Lisa a lot of people would say that sounds good, but 2016, we dont buy that this is that much different. I am looking at betting markets, people putting money on the election, currently pricing in about a 61 chance of joe biden winning versus a 44 chance of President Trump getting reelected. This is a much tighter race in Prediction Markets then it is in at fivethirnd tyeight or the economist. Shy do you say about voters, people that did not go to the polls in 2016, and some of these other dynamics . Jonathan l the betting markets have learned humility from 2016, and that is probably appropriate, but theres a lot of signals here. Theres very little evidence that there are shy trump voters. Theres basically one poster out there pushing that and getting a lot of airtime, and after the election, he is probably going they gooal to to poster to suggest that he was robbed of this election. Fores very thin evidence it. I think the polling markets excuse me, the betting markets are being overly cautious. A strong signal in all of the swing states, nationally, all the way down to the local level, youre seeing that biden seems to be having some coattails that Hillary Clinton did not. That should help Democratic Candidates in this election cycle. If we were wrong, it would be the largest polling miss probably in u. S. History. You would have to be off by nearly 10 points nationally, which would be pretty absurd, and he would have to be off between six and eight points in pennsylvania, wisconsin, and michigan, which is larger than the error we saw in 2016. Tom john lieber, thank you so much. Terrific essay on the putting putin outcome. Images from wisconsin, and for those on Bloomberg Radio and bloomberg tv, good morning and the battleground states. Kevin cirilli mensing no words, wisconsin Kevin Cirilli mincing no words, wisconsin will be on his list later tonight. In texas, about 108 2016. In today from those of the kind of states, wisconsin, they are the kind of states where we havent seen the same kind of turnout in the early voting. Tom Riverside High School in milwaukee of course, many different wisconsins. I saw the Washington Post doing a great job on partitioning the states, from county andup to dane green bay as well. Theres a headline from the president of the United States, and hes got a 306 handle on it. Jonathan im surprised he has a number on it. I am not surprised he said he is going to win, or you . Tom no. Ive got a wall of tv monitors here, mostly set up on tottenham football in london. Or seven. Ing bbc six jonathan what i shocker. Tom i thought the gold was really good the other day the goal was really good the other day. Jonathan honestly, lisa. Even on election day, he is doing this . Lisa look at those markets. They are up. Jonathan they are up. [laughter] tom move the penalty line. Jonathan focus. Alongside tom keene and lisa abramowicz, im jonathan ferro. Tom i hate penalty shots. Jonathan this is bloomberg. Are you frustrated with your weight and health . Its time for aerotrainer, a more effective total body fitness solution. announcer aerotrainers ergodynamic design and four patented air chambers create maximum muscle activation for better results in less time, all while maintaining safe, correct form and allows for over 20 exercises. Do the aerotrainer super crunch. The prestretch works your abs even harder, engaging the entire core. Then its the back extension, super rock, and lower back traction stretch to take the pressure off your spine and stretch muscles. Planks are the ultimate total body exercise. Build your upper body with pushups. Work your lower body with the aerosquat. The aerotrainer is tested to support over 500 pounds. It inflates and deflates in less than 30 seconds using the electric pump. Head to aerotrainer. Com now. Now its your turn to lose weight, look great, and be healthy. Get off the floor and get on the aerotrainer. Go to aerotrainer. Com, thats aerotrainer. Com. Jonathan today is usually tedious for wall street. Just waiting. The market is not waiting. Good morning. Action, up 40 on the s p. Gains yesterday today. Dollar strength last week, quickly replaced with weakness this tuesday. Markets,he Treasury Curve steeper, yield higher. Taking a bite out of crude yesterday. We bounceback, 3 . 38 handle, wti. Tom dow futures up. I am watching the vix. We are not there yet. James sweeney of credit suisse, not yet. Mark, out of columbus, ohio, quite expert on regional politics with corporate influence and the study of the races underneath the president ial race. He joins us from philadelphia. Ding is the gorgeous terminal philadelphia; what they did after new york city destroyed penn station. It is a triumph. What are you going to see . It is a hard bet. Because i military have been brought. What will you observe . Quasimilitary have been brought out. There is still a National Guard presence after protests last week after a black man was shot by police. There will not be Police Presence at the polls. It is not allowed unless there is an incident. We will watch to see how long the lines are in pennsylvania and philadelphia. Given there was a new option for voters in pennsylvania this year to do mailin voting, we saw a big surge in voting by mail because of the pandemic. Philadelphia, pennsylvania are running two elections at once. Regular in person voting. They are also counting processing this flood of mailin ballots. Lisa pivotal for the election. We may not know the results in that state for days or weeks. Mark because of mailin ballots. Pennsylvania is one of the only states that does not allow election clerks to physically open envelopes, scanning balance until 7 a. M. On election day. Wisconsin doesnt allow that. Michigan, sometime. Florida ken starr 22 days before the election. Allows 22 days before the election. It could take days and philadelphia. In philadelphia. Jonathan good luck for the rest of the day. From london and new york, good morning. Equities with a lift. Off session highs. 42 on the s p, up 1. 27 . Tom futures up. James sweeney joins us with credit suisse. Important conversation because in the mix of the political and financial punditry, mr. Sweeney has been careful on a cautious view of american growth. Do you continue with the view that it will be a struggle forward . James largely depends on stimulus outlook. I will be looking for if we get a clean sweep scenario where stimulus expectations become clear or do you have Something Else . Effectively, recent months, the big increase in deposit balances and households and people have not been buying services has hidden problems the sector has with cash flows if we do not get stimulus. There are quite a few things that will restrict cash flow households and incomes in the month ahead without help from the government. Jonathan can you be more specific about problems . Remember the unemployment insurance, which we had supplementary insurance during the worst of the pandemic. It expired in august. People said there was a cliff. There was. It fell. There is another cliff at the end of december. More unemployment payments from the government will be reduced further. Forbearance measures many households have benefited from will expire at the end of the year. Unlikely to is continue to 600 in jobs growth per month. Jobs growth should be good but continue to slow. Wage growth should slow. It has been driven up by a noncomposition effect in the data. Hours worked per week should slow due to a similar effect. If you are in the nerdy details, a lot of them point south in the near term in terms of cash flow of households. Jonathan you just dont sound as constructive as you were one month ago on the recovery. Is that a characterization of development of your ideas . Ases i think i see it stimulus dependent, nearterm. We are in a slowdown relative to sharp acceleration of q3 but the economy is growing. Stimulus, shortterm, Something Like the package negotiated in july is very important. If you have Election Outcomes that make the stimulus likely, we could be in good shape. Otherwise, there is trouble. Also, the virus is picking up again and that is a headwind. It will probably do more than expected. Skittish rather than forecasting major problems. What highfrequency data are you looking at the gauge response . People expect the u. S. To avoid lockdowns. What are the measures to behavior isoples restrictive on the economy . Virus, we look at positivity rates spread direct data. On the economy side, new data we have on foot traffic to establishments, point of sales data i dont think the macro data is helpful. The market is somewhat accustomed to looking at the same old indicators. You can get thrown off easily. For instance, people have been excited about retail sales. Retail sales is consumption. Consumption is 70 of gdp but 20 is good. Services of the problem. Foot traffic to restaurants, airports, things like that, related spending members are what we are watching. Diffusion,he word, except with a fancy french accent i dont have. Can any prosperity diffuse to a large body of americans who are anxious . The problem is the concentration of people working in lower Wage Services sectors while having lost their unemployment or extra unemployment and about to potentially be losing their forbearance. That is trouble. Bigfact people are buying ticket, durable, largely imported goods are not necessarily helpful. Jonathan great to catch up. More breaking news. Early today, one hour ago, tension between Shanghai Stock Exchange and the listing. Regulatory,ion over the listing will not be going ahead on that exchange. Set tog Kong Exchange is make an announcement onants sng kong listing on ant hong kong listing. Lisa fascinating. Tech regulation in u. S. , not so much in china but they are cracking down on Financial Sector trying to make online lenders hold more capital, perhaps not as easily raise money through security, finance, consumer loans. There is fear of stoking financial unrest should there be instability on the system. , into context 34 billion dollar ipo, the worlds largest, was set to start trading thursday, had 3 trillion of retail bids coming in. Incredibly hot among the rankandfile in china. Hot button issue. Interesting to see what transpired in meetings. Jonathan this could go one of two ways. Either you recalibrate in hong kong and go bigger and adjust or the whole thing gets pulled. People leaning toward the former. Ideai would partition the of a financial calculus. Price, shares, we want a piece of the action. Is it more about unrest over the structural calculus . This headline from the global times. Group to readjust listed businesses evaluation. I get the valuation. That is wall streety. To readjust . Is this about strategic structure or financial pricing . I dont know. Jonathan i dont know either. I am looking for clarity. Alibaba falling in premarket, 6. 7 at the moment. It is election day. We have a rally for you. Rally yesterday. Monday to tuesday continues. Equity market up 40, 1. 2 . With 1. 17. Euro yields up, curve is deeper, crude rallying, risk on tuesday on election day in america. This is bloomberg. Ritika President Trump and joe biden have brought their campaigns to an end. They spent a final day rallying in battleground states crucial to deciding the outcome. 100 million americans have already voted. Biden is seen to have the upper hand, leading in most polls. President trump is counting on turnout by his supporters today. Federal Appeals Court denied request by Texas Republicans to ban drivethrough voting today in the most populous county. Republicans say they wanted to protect violations. Courts denied the request without explanation. Coronavirus cases, alltime high in the u. S. Hospitalizations have risen in 44 states. Battleground states in the election facing their worst moments of the pandemic. Wisconsin posted americas thirdhighest cases per capita in the past week. 70 average cases at records in michigan and iowa. Eta strengthened into one of the most powerful of the year, roaring toward Central America with window of 150 mph. It is expected to cause lifethreatening storm surge and flash flooding in nicaragua today. Apple has ended its relationship with intel. The new computers will have processors designed by apple for the first time. They will replace intel chips, a mainstay since 2006. Global news, 24 hours a day, on air and on quicktake from bloomberg, powered by more than 2700 journalists and analysts in more than 120 countries. This is bloomberg. All right. So we are going to mass distribute the vaccine in a few short weeks, coming up very soon. We will quickly eradicate the virus, wipe out the china plague, once and for all, get it the hell out of here went on toht, trump say he would fire dr. Fauci. I have a better idea. Lets fire trump and i will hire foauci today, this coming on ant financial. Suspendedgo, shanghai the listing on the star board. Hong kong sang the ipo has been suspended. Alibaba, owning one third of the Payment Company is getting hammered in early trading, down 9 , off a. 5 premarket trading. Most mornings, this would be the story. This morning, of course, the story is Something Else. This is big. Tom no question. Speaks to the future of equity formation on the pacific rim. Certainly an original transaction. You wonder how the domestic politics of america folds into this. That, it is clear. This market the china view of biden is softer. You have seen that around the chinese currency. Election coverage will continue. Coming up on the open, i will catch up with experts on security. Looking forward to those conversations. Tom Bloomberg Radio, good boston, and up in bloomberg television, i would suggest the most important conversation of the day. Marty walsh is from boston, different than anyone else i know. The gentleman fought off cancer as a child, and then had to root for the new england patriots. They are not the patriots we know. Brady did better than good last night. It is boston and transition. Clearly, you are for president biden. What do the cities need from the Administration Day one . Collaboration is the first thing. Talked aboutyor the importance of having a white house that understands how a city works and the relationships that need to happen. Have had3. 5 years, i no meetings or conversations with the white house. Is the trumpists down approach and the Biden Administration would be different. Tom christopher whalen, friend of the show, expert in financial history, put out a photo on twitter of central park south, from the trump campaign. New yorkers are going to suffer and that is their problem. That has been the attitude of this president toward democratic strongholds, yet we see republican cities as well having challenges in the pandemic. How much do you need from washington and what will you do with the money when you get it . Mayors regarding other is cities mayors regard other mayors. There has been no assistance from washington through the pandemic. We have had to go it alone, including states. We have had to figure out ppe and how we prepare residents for the future on being careful and distancing. Our message has been consistent. Across america, it is important. Protests andwe had demonstrations around the streets. This white house, quite honestly, incited violence. We need leadership now. In boston, 159 thousand people have voted before election day. There is a feel for change in the air. It is not just democratic cities. It is all cities. Lisa there is a feeling of change and fear. My younger son last night said will there be violence . He is seeing the boarded up windows around new york city and boston. How concerned are you about violence in response to Election Outcomes, particularly if President Trump is in the lead, given the fact people in democratic cities other ones having boarded up windows people in democratic cities are the ones having boarded up windows . Marty we are proud of freedom and democracy and we have cities across america worrying about violence because of a general election. We have never seen anything like that. This is not a result of joe biden and his speeches. This is the result of a president who has failed america, the american economy. He has failed everything he claims he stands for. Today, weg after dont see violence. I am focused on making sure people get out to vote, without intimidation, safely. They should be able to do that in boston and across america without fear. I hope that is not the country we are becoming. Tom one final question. Dorchester represents the heritage of the Democratic Party that has lost so many people to the republicans or at least a donald trump. What is the policy prescription for the liberals in your party to get back to the kind of voters that may dorchester years ago . Made dorchester years ago . Marty first and foremost, elect joe biden today. Rebuild bute could certainly we have to get those democrats and pull them back into the party. The values are the same values those people joined many years ago. I am committed to doing that. Tom i would like to see tom english is pub. Marty there is still one in southy. Tom a most interesting day. Fm in boston. The Vice President traveling to scranton. Lisa the imagery will be telling. Both candidates want to display a sense of victory even though we are not going to necessarily know what that means for days to come. This will be an unusual election week month year. You want to keep going . Tom maybe it will be a permanent election. [laughter] wednesday, we campaigned for the primary season. Lisa it already started. [laughter] tom great images today and the focus on wisconsin. Philadelphia, the Convention Center in pennsylvania, front and center, part of the big city. Kevin cirilli focused on erie, pennsylvania. Election day across america. This is bloomberg. Jonathan from london and new york, good morning, the countdown to the open starts now. 30 minutes from the opening bell. Big issue election day in america. Ago, i won all. To a president who has divided this nation. He is not mentally equipped. Ande will win pennsylvania show the world what america stands for. We win pennsylvania, we win the whole deal. It is go time. We will keep on winning, winning, winning. It is time for donald trump to pack his bags and go home biden would be a disaster. I got a better idea. Lets fire trump. You have the power with your vote to save america. Jonathan
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