Transcripts For CNBC The Exchange 20240713

Quite a bit now. Its big ramifications for the reelection campaign, as well. A 7. 8 down 1660 when it was halted we have had 1,000moves for 7 straight sessions. Lets get more on everything going on bob pisani at the New York Stock Exchange bob . Our fourth trading halt, a circuit breaker. Down 7 . The fourth one in two weeks here look at the markets here 2351, very important number. The old december 24, 2018, low technicals not much good to anybody these days we are sitting right on top of that again, just want to review the Circuit Breakers level one, we halt 7 . We halt 15 minutes so well reopen in about ten minutes or so. If that happens again, theres no stopping at 7 . The next one is 13 . Thats until 3 25 and then there is no trading halt after 3 25 p. M. Eastern time unless you drop 20 in terms of whats bothering the market, ill put up a chart to explain everything everythings down. So here you see Corporate Bonds down here you see the s p 500, equities down. Here you see croude down and gol down, as well. This suggests people are just selling to raise cash essentially. If you take a look at the dow movers, boeing is centerpiece of a lot of this, of course seeking access to 60 billion in public and private liquidity. You get the concerns there theres the united tech also down dramatically. Then you see some of the consumer names not down nearly as much. The bifurcation that we are getting with some consumer names doing especially well. Looking at the kruconsumers, kroger, clorox and hormel talking about a surge in demand for food 2153 level for s p 500, heres a twoyear chart of the s p and the december 24th, 2018, low thats exactly where we are right now. 2351 well see if that holds or not but you see right now waiting for the market to reopen ill be over here just checking on things as we start in the next five minutes or so. Back to you. Thanks. Drawing attention to the bottom right of the screenplaying the countdown clock for you so you know when the stocks open again. Investors unsettled last week and then the yields spiked higher 10year rising in the session. Right now about 1. 14 . Lits get out to Rick Santelli and hopefully demystifying whats going on with the yields, rick. First of all, do realize that that 122 high at 5 30 in the morning o. Officially kind of the carryover outside our time zone and whats going on outside our time zone . Lots of things like higher Interest Rates, credit different yags meaning, you know, all the stimulus is good and spooking as a market guy okay stimulus is good but theres a reckoning and Interest Rates are going up two day of 10s, in the wee hours, of course, traded up to the 122. Here we sit right now were up 5 basis points twos are down 8. Twos to tens steepened 12 1 2 basis points over 70 now. Look at a year to date of 10s, we have gained traction on the long end and steepening is a good thing the problem, of course, seems to be what the offshoot is of that. Dollar index year to date of bunds, theyre at minus 23. Theyre getting ever closer to our yields and good for global recalibration. Fly in the ointment. Look at the other 10years lo at the way rates have zoomed and this is an issue because everybody is going to stimulate and there is a price and the countries on borrowed time with the huge debt to equity issues, maybe theyre paying a higher price now. Christine lagarde is nomar owe draghi and being a hawk and finally lets look at the chart. Basically at levels we havent seen in three years and thats part of the whole picture. Dollar demanld not necessarily positive it shows the nervousness around the globe. Dollar funding is huge hoarding dollars is huge switzerland is auctioning them off. We have swap lines but a market to give you a tell when we calm down, the dollar index should calm down back to you. We appreciate it. Lets get the latest out of Washington Congress is trying to quickly hash out the deals of three big stimulus plans and a vote expected this afternoon. Kayla has the latest for us. Reporter the white house just finished its Coronavirus Task force briefing, the pentagon and the department of Veterans Affairs expected to hold briefings on the mitigation efforts this afternoon and then the senate in a matter of hours to vote on a 105 billion package providing paid sick leave to about 40 million americans. The Treasury Department is putting the finishing touches on a proposed 1. 3 trillion stimulus package in that, 50 billion in assistance for airlines. 150 billion in assistance to distressed companies, 500 billion in two tranches of direct payments to americans and 300 billion in Small Business loans. Last night or yesterday when the treasury secretary was speaking to republican senators he said if they did not pass that 1. 3 trillion stimulus package then the worstcase scenario would be unemployment hitting 20 today President Trump was asked whether he saw that as a reality. I dont agree thats an absolute total worstcase scenario. But no we dont look at that at all nowhere near it. Reporter although when you consider, kelly, some of the rapid decisions that ceos in america are having to make it is hard to see how many of the people are going to be able to keep their jobs. The Business Roundtable putting out a survey of ceo confidence just moments ago and saying that the second week of their survey from march 2nd to 10th that is a week ago, if just those results were captured, that would be the steepest declean in executive confidence since the 20082009 recession. We also had this news about the big three halting operations at the plants right now. The plant closures, i wonder how the white house would respond to that. Reporter the white house will not take the news sitting down larry kudlow said on sunday he was making personal calls to the ceos of Auto Companies to try to convince them not to lay off workers but it seems they feel its inevitable and its unclear what if anything washington can do to keep it from happening. I know that phil was saying that the union was pushing them maybe for closures or more precautions. No indication they let people go furloughs seem like an obvious move but maybe close it now and able to get through this as opposed to, i dont know, maybe just trying to pick the best of two bad outcomes here. Reporter also to spare employees from potentially being exposed to the virus furloughs and layoffs from an important distinction, kelly, but for people not getting paychecks either way, its gong to be really hard to make ends meet. Yeah, no, for sure. Appreciate it very much. What you see on your screen there is reminder that in two minutes stocks will reopen for trade. Theyre halted because the s p fell 7 for the first time today. The dow down 7. 8 , 1660 when we halted trading activity. Its obviously been just an ugly and difficult time here for the stock market governments worldwide stepping up to help through the outbreak. My next guest said the worst of the market panic may be over joining me is bill miller, chairman and chief Investment Officer of Miller Partners what do you think about the i dont know if you would call it panic in the marks and whether were nearing an end here. Oh yeah i definitely call it a panic in the markets. You can see that in the vix, number of new lows in the market, the trading halts that we are getting you can see it in the fact that i think two of the three worst days that we have had in the last 50 years have been this market decline but it takes a lot to maintain a panic. You know to keep that emotion up and so i think that just as time goes on and unless the news on the pandemic side is radically worse, i mean worse than expectations, not just worse because it will do that, but i expect that the fear would aten wait because keeping that level of emotion and fear up requires a new dose of bad and worst news. Do you think people can invest in the stock market and feel as though theyre making a vote of confidence in the country to get through this . Oh, absolutely. My view is that there have been four great buying opportunities in my adult lifetime the first was in 1973 and 74. The second was in 1982, the third was in 1987. The fourth was in 2008 and 2009. And this is the fifth one. So i think this is an excepti exceptional buying opportunity but layering it in the way to go if you look at these historic buys opportunities, 73, 74, i was in in the army then and still managed to buy stock close to the lows but that was we had a war that began in the middle east in october the vietnam war was still going full blast we had a recession, soaring oil prices we had double digit Interest Rates for the first time and double digit unemployment for the first time and then a constitutional crisis in watergate that led to the president s resigning. Those are the sorts of events you see when markets are making historic lows. The news is bleak all the way around. As youre speaking there, the dow just reopened for trading down it dropped about 60 points relative to where we were before the halt and down about 8 right now i think people are frightened, we heard a lot from bill okackmn would you be in support of a concept like that . Well, i would leave the particulars of how to deal with the coronavirus to the Public Health authorities i certainly dont have any expertise there, no competitive advantage, so i just say lets listen to what the Public Health Authorities Say to do and follow that to flatten the curve. Are you personally taking precautions, bill . What kind . Are you concerned about contracting coronavirus . Or your employees. Two questions on the personal front about you, yourself. But also, about managing money at a time like this when were hearing wild things of liquidity and how it may be lacking when the bond market is doing confounding things how would you explain those experiences . Yeah. I mean, theres certainly liquidity crisis going on. People are basically trying to get cash and sell anything that they can to do that to protect themselves against the further decline. And also is an extent of coronavirus which is the cause of this liquidity scramble and again, i think just people following the directions of the Public Health authorities. Heres the right way to go im in that range of over 70 so the fatality rate is considerably higher for somebody like me than it would be for my grand kids who would probably skate right through this im doing the same thing that probably most people doing are people in the office are working from home if they like to or if they want to come in the office thats fine, too we have a small team and nobody sits that close to each other anyway im down in florida and so at least as bad as it is in the markets, the weather here is very nice and, you know, im just sitting in the house and watching the, you know, watching the carnage in the market and trying to see how we can improve our positioning and portfolios so when things get better we are positioned to take advantage of it. I want to ask you about that detail but one more macro question before i do theres talk now about these lending facilities, about as some are calling it bailouts of the airlines and of other really hard hit industries. Now there are there is talk of attaching conditions to these. Saying the companies should maintain payrolls, 15 minimum wage turn a board seat over to workers. Does that risk doing more harm than good . And should there be any conditions even as simple as banning share buybacks to industry that is accept fund in this time . Well, i mean, my view on that is that Elizabeth Warren is not exactly one of the worlds great macro economists she is a politician and has the courage of her convictions which i mostly dont agree with. But with respect to dealing on the economic side of things, i think the key to try to get this thing handled in whatever way that we can. I think we saw with some of the stuff that happened in 2008 and 09 with doddfrank and the measures there, theyve had to be at least partly and many of them wholly unwound because they were done in this high emotion and just like the t. A. R. P. Which was a fantastically successful policy but terribly unpopular politically and put an end to that panic no Bank Failures after t. A. R. P. So i think we have got to look at with respect to each industry what the best way to protect the industry and the economics and then obviously peoples jobs and livelihoods and, again, on that case, Pay Attention to the people i think understand the economy very well, people like larry summers, for example, theres a whole host of people out there on both the left and the right and then in center that i think probably come to some level of agreement of what the optimal policies are. Bill, i appreciate you answering all those big picture questions. I would like you to talk about how you try to improve your investments and where you think you put capital to work here. Sure. You know, one of the things i have heard, kelly, on cnbc is many people have been interviewed is they say, well, you know, if theyre inclined to buy at all, others say its a good time to upgrade the portfolio and names like nike or disney or these high quality names you wish you had owned and too expensive, nows the time because theyre on sale. Theres nothing wrong with that advice but i tend to look at things differently and say what i want to do when i say upgrading my portfolio, adjust for the price changes that have occurred so when the recovery happens, happens in three months or six months, whenever it happens we are positioned to get the maximum return when that happens. And so, part of what we are doing right now is taking a look at businesses going back just before the coronavirus hit and seeing where they all traded so that was a period, you know, u. S. Economy was very strong you know its not going to be strong now and certainly could not have been at a better place to have this thing happen because unemployment at a 50year low,en inflation not a problem, Interest Rates down, corporate profits at alltime highs. A good, solid economy and we would take and we have taken a look at what where things traded in january and then an early february and then looking at whats down the most and then adjusting for financial risk, Balance Sheet risk and stuff and things to go up the most when that happens and whens been hit the hardest is obviously things Like Companies with leverage, companies that are smaller and market capitalization, the stuff thats held up the best or the obvious beneficiaries of stay at home you know high quality category that everybody regard as high quality i think that its if you didnt own amazon, this is a great time to buy it because no secret that amazon will benefit from all of this but i think whats remark sable is to hire 100,000 people, a rough 10 increase in the workforce and how powerful the orders have been and this is, of course, happening all around the world and the impact of this will be that people that were not amazon customers or sporadic customers ordering more and then join prime, the huge flywheel that amazon has so all of this activity that deal with the coronavirus, the countries are taking could be relabeled the amazon subsidy act of 2020. Right well, again, not great news to kind of main streets across the country. I can hear that, i hear that outrage already saying theyre hiring the workers basically from local businesses and i dont want to get you bogged down in that but ask about the Financials Bank of america, the companies that could be permanently damaged by if rates stay where they are what would you do with those holdings well, those are in our top ten names so let me just take the first one, genworth. Its approval finally to close the deal with china ocean wide and so thats an arbitrage right now and kicked up whether the markets are in complete disarray so it looks to us like they have basically all the arrival that is they need to put 100 million into the subs sidiaries and hope to close it by the end of this month. So in a couple of weeks and the price is 5. 43 in cash and the stock is around 4 today so thats a 30 , 35 return in 1 month if they close it on the 31st it is hanging fire for three years and the 31st, it will be a few weeks after that. What about bank of america . I have so many more questions and will run out of time but i know b of a is a wide olding for a lot of people. All the banks are under pressure with net margin squeeze and the turmoil but the fed is most important thing is the fed is going to make sure that the financial plumbing is operating and what it is doing the banks will have plenty of liquidity, access to the discount window and otherwise. So yeah. The banks, like everything else, sort of a correlation have gone as my son runs an income fund, the correlations to one and everything is going down and, you know, the banks i think the banks are great opportunities if you dont own them theyre in the strongest financial position in history. Brian moynihans done a great job with bank of america and we own jpmorgan and citibank. What about American Airlines, with both the leverage piece and the fact that they face a months long if not quarters long business hit here yeah. American is in the weakest position we have been adding to it down here we also own delta and ual. But the one thing that i think you can say with confidence about certainly delta and United Airlines is that i would put it almost almost impossible for them to go bankrupt and the reason i say that is Warren Buffett owns 9 or 10 of each of those and warren bought more delta stock in the 40s recently and i would be highly confident that if those guys needed help he would be there with his standard 8 preferred and he had 130 billion on the Balance Sheet so i wouldnt expect any issue with those except just the price changes that we have seen. Again, i think for american, does it become a survival of the fittest . Consolidation . Im surprised theres not a better reaction to details of the emergency loans from the government will look like. Investors dont seem to care. Yeah. Investors dont care about anything right now theyre in a panic mode. The differentiation, should begin to see differentiation as the panic winds out and then look at the bailout if it occurs, the lines of credit to be given to the airlines and then what will the terms be . We have to wait and see on this. Finally, bill, before i let you go, to reiterate, you look at these markets and think that declines at this point are near an end, that the selling pressure is about to abate an enthat this is a historic buying opportunity, one of the top five in your lifetime come back to 2008 because as you may recall, your viewers may recall, in october of 2008 Warren Buffett wrote an oped saying buy american stocks, saying he was buying stocks and urging people to do the same thing. And, of course, people didnt do that but selling stocks and the reason that warren is the richest guy in history making the money in the stock market is that typically, one of the remarkable things to me is when he says to buy, people dont do that they do the exact opposite and why he has all the money and they dont i was in a meeting with him a few years later. Somebody said how did you know that was the right time to buy stocks in the fall of 2008 he said, i dont know time i know price he said, i know when stocks are cheap and when theyre bargains and not. He said so i buy them when theyre bargains and i would say the same thing here. I think stocks are cheap, bargains can they go lower . Absolutely we are down 30 some percent. We were down peak to trough 50 in 2008 and 09. You cant rule anything out. Certainly the prices i think and the context of a normal environment are extraordinarily attractive we were looking today, we dont own it yet, Carnival Cruise lines. But carnival today is trading lower than it did in 2001. You know at 9 11. Lower than it did in 08 and 09 when it bottomed in the teens and averaged around 20 bucks a share during that period of time and now a single digit name. It is an Investment Grade credit you know it is better capitalized than the other cruise lines so are the sort of things out long term, 50 in january and now 8 or 9. Those sorts of things to be looking at now whether you pull the trigger or not got to be on the list. Football night in americaly, whats the message to friends and family say im not putting the money in the market what is your message to the folks listening . Well again, if people cant take the risk, they have to invest where theyre comfortable and if people are ever interested in investing in the stock market with the best rates of return over long period of time then now is the time to start into that and again just go with an index fund. That way you dont have to worry about active managers, costs and participate in the inevitable recovery whenever that occurs. Bill, thank you for joining me today. Okay. Thanks. Bill is chair and ceo of miller value partners. A lot to digest there. What an hour its been we did reopen stock trading in that interview the dow down about 8. 5 . The nasdaq down right now. The s p at 2339. Down 7. 5 and it is a worst picture in oil right now crude is cratering again hard to say it but building on the worst month ever it is crushing the sector explaining the action today. Wti crude hit a 18year low. Broke 22 a barrel the outlook for fuel demand is bleaker every day with travel restrictions the whole sector down more than 40 . Lets bring in brian sullivan. You rightly keyed into the saudi story, the supply aspect of this yesterday, as well, seems to making it worse and down 20 in oil again and the journal talking about we could go below 10 with a global storage glut. Well, they must be watching cnbc at the journal. This is when you have a barrel of oil that nobody needs or wants, and all the storage tanks are full, that barrel has either zero value or even negative value because youve got to pay somebody to take it away to maybe store it if you dont have room for storage. We are not there yet obviously but crude oil below 22 a barrel and nobody i have talked to thinks that we move up any time soon now, of course, like bill miller was just saying, when everybodys on one side of the boat maybe you have to start looking but oil is for by and large a come phdty and we are below 22 theres a lot of Oil Companies that used to be worth 5 billion, 8 billion, 10 billion worth today 50 million and priced basically at zero. Its wild, brian. Why are the producers taking this moment to try to crush it if im saudi, russia, the news is bad enough. There seems to be a big geopolitical aspect to this. Whats the end game here i wrote about it a couple weeks ago. Russians want to go to war with u. S. Shale and now the saudis go with war with the russians and we are caught in the middle of it we are the marginal producer we have doubled the Oil Production in last ten years and i think they sat by and were like, okay, this shale thing cant last and run out of money and debt fueled an kept going up, up and up and now i believe theres an idea that, listen, lets just crush the Weaker Companies while we can and hopefully production comes down in the United States because to bill millers point, im not an Equity Analyst ill say this. There are companies that will survive this many Oil Companies are going to go away. Not my opinion written by pretty much everybody out there. The equity is effectively zero already. I think the saudis and russians they want production to come down they want the kind of the world broken into four things. The u. S. , sort of opec, russia and then kind of everybody else and the u. S. Is barging in through the front door and i think theyre trying to slam the door closed. Fair enough well said as always. We appreciate it today all right. Some breaking news on the housing front right now. Diana, whats going on reporter kelly, moments ago the fhfa put out a note saying to suspend evictions for 60 days as a response to the coronavirus. I spoke with director about borrowers concerned about making mortgage payments. Fannie and freddie saying to offer loan forebearance which means a borrower can miss payments to paid later or tacked on to the end of the loan but on the front end of this. We dont know. If this goes more past the summer, certainly, its going to call for a different set of responses. As for halt of all mortgage payments done in it will i, he said the white house or congress would have to lead on that several cities including denver, seattle, San Francisco and san antonio as well as new york state already put a ban on evictions from rentals or foreclosures at wells fargo, they have said they have been getting calls from borrowers and providing assistance with wee waivers, other expanded assistance for credit card, auto, mortgage, Small Business and personal lending customers that contact us theres concern now that the Mortgage Servicing industry is not equipped to handle the onslaught of the calls and just about to go on air i got a response from Jpmorgan Chase and offering forebearance to customers. Diana, a side note although normally wouldnt be but the action is so crazy has been the whats happening with Mortgage Securities ishld say. In other words, theyre not trading that well the last couple of weeks and bond yields plunged. They have not followed them down and rates back up a little bit an i have people in the market saying to me announcements while they help the economy and homeowners, will they hurt the ability to push those rates down in the long run . Reporter well, look. The rates have been all over the place in the past two weeks. We saw them drop to a record low and then massive flood of refinance applications, the banks couldnt handle that investors concerned and not buying the mbs and pushed rates back up again and now back a little after we saw the federal stimulus last sunday putt in place and you saw those rates start to come down and yields up again. Theyre all over the place and important to focus on is not whether you can refinance the loan but make the mortgage payment and addressed now. For sure. Thank you. Lets get the very latest on the coronavirus count. Its spread to all 50 states here in the u. S. And sue herera has the latest for us. Indeed. Thank you very much. Heres whats happening at this hour, everyone new yorks governor is reporting 1,000 new coronavirus cases since yesterday. That takes that states total above 2,300, double the cases in Washington State which has the second highest count Governor Andrew Cuomo announcing the uss comfort, a Navy Floating Hospital is being sent to new york. Worldwide, the number of confirmed cases is now above 207,000. The u. S. And canada have agreed totemporarily shut thei mutual border to nonessential travel canadian Prime Minister trudeau said trade will continue supply chains including trucking will not be affected by this new measure canadians and americans cross the border every day for essential work or for every urgent reasons that will not be impacted. And british cabinet ministers meeting to discuss new stimulus measures there. Prime minister johnson said every worker will receive support and working to protect people from being evicted from the homes. Johnson says britain is increasing testing capabilities to 25,000 tests per day. Meanwhile, the Scottish Government says all schools to close this friday and may not reopen before the summer wow. You are up to date, kelly see you next hour with more. Thank you very much lets turn back to the market and stocks are selling off sharply today. We were halted at the top of the hour now you can see the dow down 10 . Well below 20,000. 19,123 10 decline. Russell small caps down 11 today, the nasdaq and s p down more than 8 technical note, a lot of folks watching the 2350 level on the s p and hit 2300 all 11 sectors in the red. Energy as we discussed a terrible session for crude thats the biggest loser in terms of sectors with industrials. There are a couple of bright spots in the dow relatively speaking walmart is one of them helped by an analyst upgrade shares up 1. 5 walgreens, cisco and p g in the up boeing down 27 again today. Take a look. Well below 100 a share. 89. 10 the latest print it is on track for the worst month ever the company saying its in talks with the administration right now about shortterm support because it had completed the draw down of the rest of the nearly 14 billion line of credit in fact, for more on the story, lets bring in phil lebeau a terrible story for boeing here despite the president s assurances of support. It is i hate to be a pen to say the boeing news is one to get to in a little bit, it is terribly important, but first an update on the news broke a half hour ago regarding the auto plants that are going to be shut down here in north america. First of all, ford now sending out a release confirming what we reported that it will be stopping production at the end of tomorrow shifts second shift tomorrow, that will happen all the way through march 30th we also expect to hear this afternoon that gm and Fiat Chrysler shutting the plants, as well they met with the uaw yesterday. They said shut it down how about a partial shutdown the Companies Realize to shut down the production in north america. We will have more throughout the afternoon im sure now lets shift to boeing terribly important story and, kelly, you showed how much the stock is down. 67 in the last month. With regard to boeing an its negotiations or requests for aid from the Trump Administration and from the congressional leaders, they would like to see at least 60 billion in aid going to boeing but it is not like its going strictly to boeing but also to the aviation suppliers, remember, 70 cents of every dollar that boeing gets it would be going on to the suppliers. Their point, youve got to help the suppliers out or else you see the Aerospace System essentially collapse in this country and killing boeing the airlines not only here in the u. S. But around the world, they are getting crushed right now so you have to wonder about future deliveries. How bad is it for the American Airlines delta dropping 8,000 in the last hours. On pace to lose 2 billion in revenue this month cutting capacity 70 a. Week ago they said they will cut for 40 . Jetblue also out with an 8k today. On friday took out a 1 billion term loan. They said today that they went through that 1 billion and drew down the loan by monday. Three days is how long it took them to draw down that loan. Spirit, ticker simple save cutting the april capacity 20 may capacity by 30 . United, it is increasing its april schedule cuts by 60 bottom line is this, kelly nobodys flying. Nobodys booking and the cancelations keep increasing and as a result you see the airlines ratcheting up the expectations and people are probably saying how much more can they cut cutting 70 of the schedule . Theres 30 there and you have to wonder, you know, does the administration at some point say, yes, they have talked about 50 billion aside for the airlines when does that get passed and when is there reassurance to the airlines of some type of backstop and what comes with that phil, it is a lot it really is it is a lot to digest for all of the critical sectors of the u. S. Economy. Well leave it there and get back to you as we continue to get news on the automakers and on the airlines. Confusion and concern reign in the industries and in others including restaurants, shopping malls as theres been a lot of mixed m mixed messaging who whats to stay open. For more im joined by mitch daniels, president of Purdue University and former governor of indiana and former director of management and budget of president bush and former adviser to president reagan. Governor, it is great to see you. We need leadership not the back and forth over whats open and not. How do we better communicate to people of what to do at a time like this . Oh, im not too inclined to second guess having lived at the last week with the new information every day. Exactly. And new guidance. Scientific and medical guidance leaving the government i think looking back, kelly, later on well fault ourselves more for the steps we didnt take in the last decade or two the preparatory steps we could have taken to be more ready when this fully predictable event happened. The way we have been dealing with it recently, yes, im sure that some folks could have acted a day sooner than they do or here and there more wisely but i think in general im impressed really with the swiftness of the national response, not easy without totalitarian controls. Governor, im going to try one more question with you hope we dont lose you here. Youre the first person to call it a predictable crisis that could have been fixed. Are you talking about face masks made in america . What do you mean by that people forecast that a pandemic was a when not if phenomenon and yes, there were things we could have done. Stockpile antivirals. We are short of swabs right now. We hope that testing will be much more here soon but some of the could have been done in advance werent so i think in the inevitable after action reports well look at ourselves more critically in that area and well i hope take action so that when Something Like this comes around next time were much better ready to deal with it. Governor, i apologize your sound is dipping in and out. Wed love to check back with you and wanted to discuss what happens with your university and others but if you would be so kind and maybe rejoin me as we get the wires open again and we thank you. Thank you. Activity picked up in the stock market here, also picked up a little bit in Corporate Credit and specifically the high yield or junk part of the market so whats going on with the stresses there lets bring in dom chu from his home bureau. Dom, it is good the see you again even at a distance here. This is a really important topic. What are you seeing in the credit markets all right so there are stresses happening and whats a little bit more curious over the last couple of days about the price action specifically in Corporate Credit in that world is that we have seen kind of like that divergence or convergence happen again. The first thing is an interesting chart put together by the data and research folks at wide charts and what that chart shows is Corporate Risk curve and what it looked like from aaa bonds all the way to ccc bonds, highly rated Corporate Bonds to less highly or more junk rated debt. A line on the top shows you what it looked like with the Interest Rate curve across that span back in the great crisis in 2008, 2009 and then the two lines below it are this year and its stress points in the last year the thing that you want to key in on is not the absolute level of Interest Rates across that curve because we know back in 2008, 2009 Interest Rates nominally were higher than today and key in on is the righthand side of that chart where you get more towards the junk and leveraged side of things the steepnesses happening have not yet happened in this particular crisis and the Corporate Credit market, nor did it in times of stress in the last couple of years, as well. Theres a precedent that we could see even more pain specifically targeting the junk or high yield part of the corporate portion. Thats going to be something to watch. Also what to watch here is the difference in yields between aaa rated, very highly rated bonds and ccc or junk dead so far what we have seen is aaa rated debt is doing pretty well. People buy it for that yield and relatively safe. After that, look at the cccs we have seen a big amount of stress there so its two flash points in the corporate debt market to keep a close eye on. We are doing so here at cnbc. Yes, sir. Thank you very much. Lets turn to the casinos which are taking it on the chin after the nevada ordered a 30day statewide shutdown. Contessa brewer has the details for us reporter its not just nevada right now we are seeing these casinos shut down coast to coast but nevada, casinos and tourism, thats the Economic Life blood of this state. According to the university of nevadalas vegas, there are 100,000 people who work on the Las Vegas Strip alone and as they shut down these casinos, at the order of the governor saying that all nonessential businesses have to close, you know that these guys are going out, going home and wondering whats going to happen. At this point, if youve got 450 thousand dollars people working in travel and tourism in the state of nevada, according to the nevada resort association, this is an Industry Worth 68 billion, it is very important to know what happens to all of these people well, Las Vegas Sands, station casino says theyll pay the workers. Mgm resorts announced some layoffs and furloughed workers saying it will pay those furloughed workers, even part time it will pay them for two weeks wynn resorts says it will pay for 30 days and in a video message to the employees the ceo explained why he is willing to pay workers to stay home. If you take our families, we represent about 50,000 people in our houses and the 50,000 of us if we do what were supposed to do, were going to save lives. Reporter theres a big question now about liquidity and solvency and analysts are coming through with estimates at the low end. We have Penn National gaming that some analysts say maybe has four months of liquidity but on the other hand you have Las Vegas Sands which is at the upper range and says its well positioned financially stable, can take care of employees caesars included 2. 8 billion cash on hand and is doing other cost cutting measures. Barry jonas said, look, if you think that gaming is a place you want to be looking at the reits and even though their share price is taking it on the chin as you said, kelly, they could go between 43 months to 81 months without getting any rent from their casino tenants and still be okay. Wow that is a great stat contessa, so when you mention curious how it plays out but paying workers, do they say for how long i wonder if its tough for people who might say i could collect Unemployment Benefits and not say theyre stuck in limbo. I wonder how long that situation can last. Reporter i think it really depends from company to company because caesars said theyre trying to work out how can they minimize the impact on the employees and not being clear. Mgm said two weeks Las Vegas Sands said pay our people it probably depends a lot on the Balance Sheet, a lot on how long that theyre kept out of this. But in nevada, the closedown is 30 days an leaves people going, okay, what happens after two weeks of being furloughed from my job and then what happens if the closures have to go on longer than that . Kelly, in macau the casinos shelling out up to 2. 5 million per day, going to salaries, oerpgal costs, utilities an things like that theyre not getting any money in and bleeding money out its a crisis point. It is it is. Like everything, it depends on what happens with coronavirus here nationwide. Thank you very much. Just want to bring you a quick news alert Prime Minister johnson saying now that england will shut the schools do you know to coronavirus. As of wednesday, the uk had 2,600 cases confirmed with 72 deaths and the country taking the step to close the schools and here in the u. S. Many have done on a state by state basis coming up, my next guest says that this is a whatever it takes moment and theres no limit to what the fed or fiscal stimulus should do what does he want to see happen next how big a price tag. Well ask him with the dow down almost 1800 points were back in two. Our Retirement Plan with voya gives us confidence. So we can spend a bit today, knowing were prepared for tomorrow. Wow, do you think you overdid it maybe . Overdid what . Well planned, well invested, well protected. Voya. Be confident to and through retirement. To feel connected. It all starts with an invitation. The invitation to lexus sales event now through march 31st. Lease the 2020 es350 for 379 a month for 36 months and well make your first months payment. Experience amazing at your lexus dealer. Welcome back lets get you caught up where we are in these markets right now deep in the red, long story short. The dow is down 1850 points, thats an 8. 6 drop. And we are down 10,000 points since the record highs we did trigger the Circuit Breakers with the s p 500 when it fell 7 around an hour ago. We halted traini inin inin inii5 minutes. Energy falls to an 18year low and in the last hour, we heard from bill ackman who said, quote, hell is coming. Bill miller, meantime, telling us just now that this is the buying opportunity of a lifetime whos right . Im joined by Jason Trennert and Julia Coronado is founder of macro policy perspectives. Its good to have you both here. Julia, let me start with you on the economy. Ive seen Second Quarter gdp figures now of minus 10, minus 13 . Is that outlandish or totally feasible its not outlandish when were talking about the economy, effectively grinding to a halt right now, as we speak, and this is going to last at least several months i dont think were its o outlandish to think were going to see some of the biggest onequarter drops weve seen in the postwar period. And this sets up for a unique challenge, because its almost like the country was hit by a virtual meteor, right . Theres a lot of talk about what happens kind of in the rebuilding effort, right in a way, that could be as tricky a period of time, if youre in the market, for example, by trying to figure out inflation and how to unwind some of these programs. I know im way ahead of myself here, but its going to be a dicey few months yeah, no, its a liquidity crunch in the real economy so businesses are looking at revenues just stopping on a dime and households, meanwhile, still have rent to pay and mortgage payments to make so it really is something that can feed on itself, and the goal of policy right now should be to short circuit that feedback loop and if you think about the scope of this and the scale and the speed with which this is happening, its going to take a lot of money even more than theyre talking about on capitol hill right now. And more from the fed. And its rippling through Financial Markets in a very insidious way. Were hearing about deleveraging and forced selling were seeing breakdowns between in the correlations between stocks and bonds so we really are at a moment where this could feed upon itself in a very bad way and policy makers need to just break it all out, be creative, go big, and arrest this feedback loop jason, let me bring you in on that note. Are you someone who would at all say, this is the time not to worry about the dollar figure, per se, because the cost will be huge if we do nothing. I dont think anyone understands what a recession means for the budget, for the deficit, for the debt it could be, spend less now to spend less now on that front or spend a whole lot more later if we cant get this thing back on track pretty quickly, right . I think thats right. And i think theres been a very big change in the administration itself just in the last two weeks, certainly in the last four or five days, where there was some talk of targeted stimulus, you know, a week and a half ago. And now it seems to me this is like draghi said in 2012, this is very close to the whatever it takes moment you know, so far, youve passed 8. 5 billion spending bill, 105 billion spending bill is about to be passed, and youre talking about 1. 2 trillion. We may be right, it may need to be more. It seems to me, though, that theres no upper bound in what policy makers are willing to do now. Especially jason with ten hch yeyear treay yields as low as they are, theres not much cost for doing whatever it takes. People will push back some say we havent seen the hit yet thats coming to the economy and say, how can you say open ended, how can you be throwing around multimillion dollar figures out there. Explain why and maybe this is dangerous, and maybe thats why we have to worry about what this looks like on the other side and maybe thats why the bond market is going a little haywire. This is a form of monetary theory, theres two ways about it and that can be somewhat worrisome as far as inflation is concerned later on but by the same token, we have to get you know, i would suggest very much a onedayatatime approach and its not just whatever gets you through the night, im very much for whatever will work in the next couple of months. So the liquidity crisis doesnt become a solvency crisis, which it seems to be morphing into it, if were not careful so youve never seen its cliche to say, its unprecedented, but youve never seen large lay government not mandated, because we have a free economy, but largely mandated demand shock and they have to compensate people for that. You cant order things closed and let me ask you too, jason, because were running out of time this Bernanke Yellin on yped i the new york times. The theyre basically saying the fed should buy corporate debt. Would you agree with that . I would again, its hard to believe theres in foxholes here and you cant be intellectually pure thats not what the fed was designed to do but again, this is different and i would suggest i would want to make it a permanent feature of our central banking, but if youre going to pull that lever, this is the time to do it okay. And julia, i want to make sure everyone heard what you said i thought it was the best encapsulation of this yet. Quote, a liquidity crunch and the real economy and that helps explain why were trying to get liquidity to households directly. No matter how that has to be worked out and in addition, lets throw in Municipal Bonds in flp state and local governments are on the front lines of addressing the health aspect of this and theyre going to need access to funding. Give the fed the authority at least temporarily to help finance them that will help a lot of problems and help us get through this holy moly thats all im going say for today. Julia coronado and Jason Trennert, thank you both we do very much appreciate it. Coming up, we are going to speak with massachusetts senator Elizabeth Warren about the governments proposed 1 trillion plus stimulus package and the potential bailout of the airlines and boeing. Dont go anywhere. Msnbcs breaking News Coverage continues on the other side of this break when you look at the Critical Issues facing our world, what do you see . We see a billion more people breathing free. We see access to fresh food being the global norm, not the exception. We see homes staying cooler, without the planet getting warmer. At emerson, when issues become inspiration, focusing core strengths to create a better world isnt just a result, its a responsibility. Emerson. Consider it solved. Its only human to find inspiration in nature. And also find answers. Our search to transform. Farm waste into renewable natural gas led chevron to partner with california bioenergy. Working to provide an alternative source of power. For a cleaner way forward. When i lost my sight, my biggest fear was losing my independence. Mmm. Good. So ive spent my life developing technology to help the visually impaired. We are so good. We built a guide that uses ibm watson. To help the blind. It is already working in cities like tokyo. My dream is to help millions more people like me. Good afternoon to you. Im Tyler Mathisen and we start with breaking news on the major market selloff that you see right there. Down 1958 points we are at session lows a moments a ago, just as we wern break, the dow dipped below that 2,000point level of loss. Trading, by the way, halted for 15 minutes in the 1 00 p. M. Hour as the s p 500 fell 7 for the first time today now, coronavirus fears, of course, reaching a fever pitch as the Government Works to pass a massive stimulus package the voting on that is coming up very soon. Look at oil in free fall yet again, down another