To pandemic, that there will be little room for a serious discussion either on Foreign Policy issues or domestic issues . That remains to be seen. But clearly back in the day, Foreign Policy matters a lot more than it does now. The republican landslide in 1920 was a direct result of the uncertainties and challenges in the wake of the first world war. Fdr broke the twoterm president in 1940, 1944, and gained enormous legitimacy in response to impending war and war as well. In 1952 korea was the dominant issue, the stevenson ike issue. In 68 lbj was literally drifen from the consequence of vietnam. In the election, vietnam did not play a singular role. Of course, 1980, you have the iranian hostage crisis and afghanistan. Increasingly, though, after the cold war, it seems that Foreign Policy had more or less dropped out of the president ial electoral cycle and the debates. You had the iraq war in 04 and 08 and figured prominently 9 11. August 20, just last month, registered voters on r12 issues americans said were very important to them, the economy polled in at 79 . Health care at 68 . Supreme Court Appointments at 64 . Covid, 62 . Violent crime, 59 . With climate and the abortion issue, interestingly enough, coming up at 42 and 40 respectively. And id be remiss if i didnt point out that like so many other issues confronting the republic today, we were a divided nation. So theres a lot to get through today and we have a number of questions that id like to pose before we start. Is Foreign Policy doomed to be a peripheral issue most of the time in shaping Voter Preferences . And is the lack of attention to Foreign Policy a result of the publics that either indifferent, not well versed in National Security, or to quote tip oneill, flows from the fact all politics are local. What would it take to get americans focused in an Election Year . And vents beyond the countrys borders. And, of course, how will the issue of National Security and Foreign Policy play in the debates and in tlelection . The issue of biden and trumps record is on the agenda and it may well come up. Finally, might any Foreign Policy issue prove consequential as we move toward november 3rd . Im glad i dont have to answer any of these questions, but to answer them, to unpack them, we have three we have an allstar panel. All of them are well known to you. Abbreviated bios should suffice. Amanda carpenter is a Political Columnist for the bulwark. Regular cnn contributor. Author of gaslighting america. Previously she served as a speechwriter to jim demint and Communications Director for ted cruz. Charlie cook, editor and publisher of the Cook Political Report and political analyst for the National Journal group. Charlies also a political analyst for nbc news. Jen psaki was the white house Communications Director in former president Barack Obamas administration from 2015 to 2017 and spokesperson at department of state under thensecretary of state john kerry from 2013 to 2015. And above all, i hope she doesnt mind, shes proudly the mother of two humans under the age of 5 which i think is the most extraordinary identifications ive heard in a bio. So, format, each will speak for roughly five minutes. Moderated round with me of annoying questions for about 20. And then q a with our twitterverse email, and whoever else is listening. So, jen, without further ado, let me turn it over to you. Well, thanks, aaron and charlie and amanda, its great to join you for this panel. Im sure ill learn a lot from both of you. You had a lot of questions in there to unpack. It made me think about back in 2007 and 2008 when i was working for thensenator brm brl and as charlie and amanda, probably you, too, aaron, will remember, part of the reason why he became the nominee is because of his opposition to the iraq war. Very much a Foreign Policy issue that was central in that president ial race and was central for in a different way in 2004 when i worked for john kerry. But by the end of the campaign, he won the election in part because of the financial crisis. And because he presented, you know, an option to the American People of somebody who they felt would be fighting for them. And i use that example because it may feel like people are starting to vote, of course, across the country, there are lines here in virginia almost every day where i live. But we have a lifetime before the actual election happens, even though people are voting, and all sorts of things can happen. So, i say that because Foreign Policy, as we all know, is a fickle guy, or gal, and events can happen that may impact how voters think. The later it is, the closer it is to november 3rd, obviously, many people have voted before then. I thing its important to keep that in mind. I think some of the polling you added there, aaron, vais really important to touch on. Charlie, obviously, follows this very closely and im sure hell have some interesting adds to make here, but Foreign Policy is something that americans say they care about. And i think they do care about. Its just where they care about it in the rank order of things. Right . Health care and the economy are consistently higher. Thats been the case for some time. It was certainly the case in 2018. Democrats won back the house. In part as a check on trump, but in part because people were afraid of having their health care taken away. Didnt mean there werent, as we all know, many, Many International and Foreign Policy events happening, but its all about how it how it impacts peop people. How do you meet people where they are. I think that is a lesson for a lot of bepeople who are trying communicate about how important Foreign Policy issues are and the differences. How are these issues impacting peoples daily lives . Ill take covid. I dont know how long ive been talking. Ill stop in a minute or two here. I want to hear what amanda and charlie have to say. Lots of questions. People dont think of covid as a Foreign Policy issue. It is absolutely a Foreign Policy issue, and when it is done effectively, when joe biden is president , i think i can be, you know it will be very much coordinated between the domestic and the National Security teams. Thats how it should be. And helping solve this crisis in the United States requires a strong Foreign Policy and National Security approach. People dont always see it that way and it doesnt you know, when youre sitting at home trying to do zoom school with your kids or trying to figure out when life will go back to normal, people dont think about it that way but it should be talked about in that way. Climate change is a Foreign Policy issue, very much so. You know, the United States obviously needs to do a lot to get our house in order, but needs to continue to lead on that front in order to address climate change. Its not just about whats happening in our streets and cities here in the United States. Thats part of it, but its very much an international issue. These are issues that impact people domestically and at home. You know, the last thing ill say is just that, you know, having served in a white house, what people dont always realize or digest is that Foreign Policy and National Security is one of the ways that any president can operate by this you know, through their own vision of what leadership should be. And what their own vision of what policy should be in a way that at many times is unchecked by congress, by the public, because theres so much power that every commander in chief has. So, it is an area where it should be a focus of the public because you are giving trust over to a president in a way about this scope of issues more than most others. But ill stop there. Whos next on the hot seat, aaron . Jen, thank you so much. Amanda. Yeah, well, i think whats really interesting is there a tendency to think that Foreign Policy doesnt matter because as jen pointed out, it describes, encapsulates, so many things. I mean, what is it, does it mean trade, does it mean cybersecurity, does it even mean immigration policy . I think in a post9 11 world, voters have basically boiled down Foreign Policy into thinking, are there bad guys coming to strike American Land again and who will stop it . I think its become solely a National Security and terrorism issue in the minds of voters, but, you know, that said, some of our most important political events during the Trump Presidency have been firmly in the Foreign Policy wheelhouse. I mean, lets not forget, he was impeached this year for inappropriate conversations with ukraine. Theres a yearslong investigation led by Robert Mueller based on inappropriate, undisclo closclosed contacts wi russia. Those are pretty major events in the Trump Presidency. I think we always end up asking, will it matter, will it move Republican Voters . Whats really interesting to me from my Vantage Point as a nevertrump republican is the only time that his supporters on capitol hill who are also responsive to constituents and voters, the only times they have really broken with him have been on Foreign Policy and election issues. I think people look past that because theres only one republican vote against impeachment, but look at the times theres been Senate Resolutions led by Senate Majority leader Mitch Mcconnell to draw a line in the sand. They had a Senate Resolution speaking out after that disastrous helsinki press conference. Saying that no, we will not we must refuse putins suggestion that well extradite u. S. Soldiers. They could have gone further, should have gone further. Senate democrats pushed that. That was a significant point which they said this is an intolerable line. They opposed his declaration of emergency to allow for the sale of billions of dollars to saudi arabia. He later overrode that senate vee y veto, that was still a significant point of Foreign Policy. The senate gop passed a resolution to get that whistleblower complaint in the fall of 2019 from the Intelligence Community which did provide the basis for impeachment. And then after he issued the drone strike in iran to kill the top military commander, there was also legislation to limit his war powers. And then just this Summer Senate republicans have spoken out pretty harshly against him when he talked about possibly delaying the election then once again, when he was talking about not having a peaceful transition of power. And so for this discussion and does it matter to voters, i think the intersection of Foreign Policy and elections is incredibly important because, remember, for this to matter, he only has to lose a small percentage of Republican Voters for this to be a landslide for joe biden. So thats extremely interesting and its not only contained within, you know, voters and on capitol hill, the most prominent members of his white house who have left to speak out against him represent the Foreign Policy community in voices like former defense secretary jim mattis, former department of Homeland Security secretary john kelly. Both retired fourstar generals. John bolton. The list goes on from other whistleblowers inside the department of Homeland Security. So i do think that does have an effect, even though it gets missed in this broader Foreign Policy discussion because we dont quite have the language to distill that down to voters. These are absolutely going to be voting issues for people on the fence. You know, amanda, thats an excellent point. I mean, it almost reaffirms something that ive felt very important for many years and that is that politic the on many issues, critical issues, to image of the nation, should, in fact, stop at the waters edge. You pointed out its a fascinating construct, the kind of backdoor analysis of why Foreign Policy actually does matter and could in reshaping Voter Attitudes and preferences. Fascinating point. Charlie. On to you. Great. Thank you, aaron. I want to thank you and bill burns for the invitation to be on such a Prestigious Panel with these other folks that are so much smarter and know so much more about this stuff than i do. So im just a political hack, but im going to put up a slightly different construct. St it its not disagreeing at all with anything amanda said. T to me, yowhen you have two peop running for Election Partnership and other things come into play. Thats a choice. When you have an incumbent president running, its a referendum. Its do you want to extend this present contract for another four years . Thats the fundamental question. You siay, okay, what feeds into that . Now, sadly, Foreign Policy, at least directly, because you guys have brought up ways, immigration, trade, these other things. Foreign policy, per se, its not i wish americans thought more about it. I wish you know, i wish every american read the economist cover to cover every week and, you know, read Foreign Policy and Foreign Affairs and go to watch carnegie but thats not where were living. Thats not what they how not a major ingredient when they decide who they want to extend this president s contract or not. So i dont think to the extent that it convinces people that this person is not cut out to be president , or this is someone theyre proud of or that they would like to continue with, thats thats where it comes into play. You know, thinking about, you know, in terms of Foreign Policy, in some ways, it comes down to a question of are there americans coming home killed or maimed or not . I mean, thats, like, the big thing. And it the threshold for other things influencing Public Opinion in a president ial election is pretty limited. And its a pretty esoteric group. But, you know, in an election where weve got its very, very stable. There are very few undecided voters. And this is an election like it always is, you know, do you want to renew President Trumps contract for another four years . Yes or no . And he its always like that with an incumbent, but with someone who is as polarizing as he is, with 75 of americans either strongly approving or strongly disapproving him, and that was pretty much true before he even took the oath of office. And theres just been very little change. So, the odds of something tonight or in the next debates related to Foreign Policy moving people because they agree or disagree with something said, i think thats really pretty unlikely. But does it feed into a is it something that for one of these 3 , 4 , 5 , thats really what were looking at here, that would tilt some of them toward that would resonate with them in a special, special way, and im count me as pretty skeptical that thats that thats going to happen. So, im a little im embarrassed when i meet with people from foreign governments, foreign, you know, foreign ministries, that sort of thing. I i always sort of have an apoll jea papoll apologetic thing. This preseeds presidecedes pres. Americans, its like were an island in the middle of the ocean with nothing else for 10,000 miles away. I know for people, like, in europe, for example, that border lots of countries, they just found this absolutely bizarre. Mindboggli mindboggling. But only having two borders with canada and mexico and not being an island and, but being so much larger than our two neighbors in terms of population, its a little inevitable, but we are, you know, we are pretty selffocused as a country and so i im a little skeptical about about how much it would affect unless it just said, this person is who i want to lead us or this person is absolutely unfit for the job, and anything outside of that paradigm related to Foreign Policy in these debates or anything else, i mean, i, frankly, dont think the New York Times story is going to affect i mean, President Trumps base, its 40 , 42 . Right. I dont know which is harder, marble or granite, but those people are not going anywhere. And the 45, 50 , theyre not going anywhere. And the people that are left the people that are actually in between, i really wonder whether they are going to vote anyway, because i dont know how you cant have an opinion on this. I mean, one way or the other. So im a little you know, ill be the skunk at the picnic, so to speak, of saying probably wont. But the other thing is most undecided voters, i dont think they watch debates. Are you kidding . If they paid attention to stuff, they probably would have made an opinion one way or another by now. So mark me as a skeptic. I get your point. Its grim. Let me push all three of you on a point that jen raised. Organized principle of any nations Foreign Policy and primary responsibility of a president is to protect the American People and guarantee their security and prosperity. What if this is picking p on a point that jen raised. I ask it as a question to you. Youve got the most serious threat to Public Health since the great influenza of 19171918 which killed 675,000 americans. You have floods. You have fires that are affecting the daily lives of americans. In fact, in theory, this crisis, the pandemic, on paper, if not in practice, theoretically, threatens the health and wellbeing of every single one of us. All 330 million of us. So its a backdoor approach to the importance of Foreign Policy since climate. Its not just an american issue. Obviously its a pandemic. Its a global experience. Could that not have an impact on reshaping Voter Perceptions in this election . Or people dont see it that way . Climate was literally 40 in the pew poll. The last issue. So what do you think . Jen, you raised that issue because i think its compelling. It looks forward, to be sure. Yeah. Look, my view on that is that it can impact some pockets but its not as sweeping as those of us who may support joe biden think it should be, right . Its just like the tax story. I know this is not a discussion about that, but, you know, thats not im not a believer thats going to massively move the public, even though if we read it, its shocking. Right . The tax story of how little donald trump paid in taxes. I will say if you look at covid as an issue, which you mentioned is obviously heavy on the minds of everybody, there are pockets. Like support among seniors for joe biden, which is higher than it has been for Democratic Candidates for president in some time. Across the board given where the economy is, the recession and millions of people are out of jobs, their support for donald trump would have dropped dramatically. It has not. I think its impacted in some pockets and not others. Theyre referendums. And at that point when i worked for barack obama, the economy was not fully recovered but our goal was to show mitt romney as somebody who was not qualified not not qualified but not suited, i should say, to be stand iing up for people who were still struggling, right, by painting him as somebody who was disconnected and very wealthy, and kind of only of that world. And also to ask people to give us another give us more time, right . Thats part of what any president does and part of what trump and his team were trying to do on the economy. They have managed or by inertia i have no idea, to keep support for him on the economy at a higher rate given what most would expect, given what were looking at. But i dont think we should underestimate that as a factor even though i think joe biden would win if the election were tomorrow. Amanda, charlie, any thoughts . Yeah, yeah. Look, obviously, when youve got 5 of the worlds population and everybody points to the 25 of the cases that i think are far more compelling is 25 of the worlds deaths due to the pandem pandemic. Thats pretty embarrassing. Are you americans aware of that . No, not really. Are americans aware or Many Americans aware that we were the preeminent leader of the free world for threequarters of a century and now were not trusted . I think that shockingly few people its even crossed their minds. Or if it has, they dont care. These are the things that get me down. Its not what part of it is what is talked about. A lot of it is whats not talked about and whether its this, whether its you know, were going to have a National Debt thats going to equal our gdp next year. But, you know, is that a topic in this debate . No, not really. So i kind of get down on this. But to jens point on the yes, when an incumbent is up, its a referendum up or down of that incumbent. If that incumbent is in danger, and certainly the economy it was Getting Better by 2012, but it was doing it really it had gone into a really deep ditch. You know, it was a slope. And so to me any time you have an endangered incumbent, the incumbents campaign tries to either disqualify the opponent or to change the subject. And in the disqualification, i think what was so unique about president obamas situation was that because it was the economy that was holding him back and the opponent was a very successful business person, this required a heck of a lot of delicacy, because he was coming at you in a way that virtually none of the other republicans could have. And so you try to disqualify or change the subject. And with President Trump its really actually, theyre kind of doing some mix of both, but ultimately its going to be up or down on him. If you think about it, for the last 3 1 2 years, everything in american politics, everything has revolved around him, for good or bad. Everything thats happened. And ultimately, i think that thumb up, thumb down is what its going to is what its all about. Have we taken a hit around the world . Oh, gosh, yeah. The good question is, how about this . If we elected god as our next president , how long would it take god to restore american prestige and position around the world . I think it would take a few years. Thats not a metaphor i should use. I think its going to take a while to fix where we are in terms of our allies, and forget the skeptics, the people who say gosh, these people are incompetent. They cant theyve done worse than a lot of third world countries have in terms of dealing with the pandemic. To the issue of our standing, just a note to our viewers, if you want to ask a question im reading here. Use the live chat feature in youtube, email us at pressoffice ceip. Org or tweet at us carnegie connects. You raised the issue of the incumbent, charlie. I want to ask a question of the three of you. How powerful a card or an advantage is the incumbent . Weve now had three twoterm president s in a row. The last time we had three twoterm president s in a row minus the fdr exception, was jefferson, madison and monroe. So im kind of thinking that americans get forgetful, forgiving. They bring all kinds of rationalizations to the vote, at least in modern times. How important is the incumbent, even with respect to Foreign Policy, when it comes to an election, or just generally . Amanda, do you want to take a crack at that . Yeah i would say well, donald trump is going to have Foreign Policy achievements to brg about. Quite frankly, it surprises me he hasnt done more of that. If i were giving him advice going into this debate, i would urge him to find ways to highlight that. I mean, the normalization of relations between the arab states and israel is a big deal. Primarily because it upended the conventional wisdom that you would have to deal with israel prison question first, and they just went straight to these arab power brokers and got it done. Am i uncomfortable with the fact that Jared Kushner is as close a buddy as it seems with mbs . Yes. That doesnt mean that the Trump Administration doesnt have Something Big to talk about. And possibly throw in joe bidens face. A lot of the conventional wisdom was you cant do this. There will be deadly, horrible consequences. This isnt the only achievement he could talk about within this framework. They also can talk about using the embassy moving the embassy to jerusalem, withdrawal from the iran treaty and that lethal strike against solemani. He could say i was right, joe biden you were wrong. He would be sort of silly not to present that framework. That doesnt mean that joe biden doesnt have responses to that. That would be what a healthy Foreign Policy debate would look like from a president with the powers of incoupkincumbency to about. Thats a good point. Who has the better story to tell . Look theres go ahead, jen. Theres always a better story to tell on Foreign Policy as the incumbent. Almost always, right . Maybe not in the case of bush in 2004, but he still won reelection. Yep. Because it was reassuring to the public that he was trying to continue to fight against terrorism, right . But, you know, to amandas point nobody is calling me from the Trump Administration for advice. Im not offering it. Me either. But i do think the benefit of theincum bbency is have you the pomp and circumstance of being president , your relationship with foreign leaders, being the commander in chief, engage with the military and use all of the incredible resources and assets at the u. S. Disposal. I will say that theres one piece that i think Many Democrats, including myself, thought would be more powerful, which is like showing that donald trump is buddies with dictators and people who have questionable moral high ground, to put it diplomatically. And thats not effective. Its been shown ive been watching focus groups and seen polling, showing that donald trump is pals with all these dictators and immoral figures around the world, people who support him and even around the border, say that it shows he does things differently and that hes a strong man who pals around with strong men. It doesnt have the effect that Many Democrats thought it might. In fact, i think they use it to kind of show that he does things differently and that hes willing to take chances, even if most Foreign Policy, National Security experts from all political stripes will say that the things he has done have been crazy and put us in a poor position in the world. Charlie, go ahead. I feel a little self conscious talking about the power of the presidency in front of a former white house Communications Director, phd s dissertation in her sleep. Theres no question, the presidency is a powerful instrument. There are a lot of tools in that tool box. And a focused, disciplined prn president can get in a really deep jam and find ways to get out. But if someone isnt focused and if they arent disciplined, thats a different story. And i talked to all kinds of groups and all kinds of people. People rarely agree about american politics. But i would say the one thing that i could get more people to agree on than anything else, regardless of their party affiliation, regardless of their ideology is President Trump is often his own worst enemy. That will get heads nodding, no matter where you are on the spectrum. And thats why, you know, as we are sitting here and hes eight to ten points behind nationally, hes behind in the three states that matter most, by five, six points, and the clock is ticking and more people are voting every moment and earlier, that could someone help him out of the jam using the tools of the power of the presidency . Of course they could. The question is, can he . Can he . Its a fascinating question. It really is. I have the luxury of being now with three people, all of whom have probably provided consultation and advice to candidates of one kind or another in debates. So i want to ask you a question. Its a does it matter question . I thought about it a lot. Im old enough, of course, to remember when in the 76 carter ford debate when the New York Times reporter asked jerry ford whether or not mr. Europe was under soviet domination, and i understand what the president was trying to do. But he said at least three times that eastern block states were not under soviet domination. My question is a very narrow, tactical one focused on the debate. Is there any stumble, bumble or tumble that could actually change Foreign Policy or otherwise, that could actually change Voter Perceptions, to create a serious jerry ford moment . I think ford lost the presidency because of the pardon of nixon, but clearly that statement, in the second debate, did not help him. But are we beyond the point where anything that is said is going to matter . At least by the president. I think the stakes are definitely high. If you look at what the Trump Campaign is doing, they have been laying the foundation for joe biden to get caught make ina mistake. They were shocked by the fact that he theyre still betting he will have a senior moment, right, because joe biden does have those. If joe biden is asked a question and he kind of blavengs out, even if he takes a second to think and respond, how is that going to play into the existing narrative that may be unfair, but will be repeated ad nauseum throughout the internet. When it comes to donald trump, i think he has the risk of going too hard at joe biden on the family issues. Clearly, thats something that donald trump wants to do. I mean, throughout the 2016 republican primary, he kind of made a name for himself, going after the family members of his republican opponent, starting with jeb bushs wife, ted cruzs wife, et cetera. Thats kind of his thing to do the thing that is so beyond the norm that other people are too shocked to think he will actually do it. Im afraid it wont be hunter biden thats the target in this debate. It will be beau biden. He wants to go for that emotional knife into joe bidens heart and make him cry. Even if people thought it was unfair, people would say wow, joe biden couldnt really handle that. Or they might look at donald trump and say, wow, we are so familiar with this familys story and the love that biden has for his family, we cant believe he would do that. That was an ugly moment. Those are the really out of bounds moments. I could see moving things in an emotional way for voters. Those are two vulnerabilities, one for each candidate. Jen or charlie, any other thoughts on this . I was going to throw in there were talking about 60 years of debates in modern history and arguably only two of them had any importance really in terms of 1960 Kennedy Nixon and 1976 the second debate with jerry ford. Right. Arguably, as you pointed out, aaron, that the pardon probably got into there a little bit. The economy was in awful shape. So there were lots of moving parts in that election. This is being very generous to say that it really was just those two, and that thats what sunk President Trump or president ford. I just think that because this is that biden would have to pretty massively screw up in a debate for an election thats not really about him to change the trajectory of a race thats not very close at this moment and has very few undecideds. Right. Yeah. I would just add, i think biden has to get like a b minus, even a c plus. And, you know, its clear what the strategy is, as amanda said, of the trump team. They are waiting for biden to have a moment where he doesnt finish an answer, where he needs too much time, where he says a name inaccurately. Im sure they will push that through their social media massive apparatus. But, you know, at the same time, joe biden i watched all the democratic debates in the primary. Those were not his high moments and he still won the primary, right . Yeah. So sometimes while were all sitting here, eating popcorn and watching in our homes at night, which i will be doing this evening, as all of us will. Were politic alan males of different stripes. It may not be what people are digesting, right, or what matters to them in the same way. I think we saw that through the primary. I will say, and not just because im a democrat. But, look, the way trump and his team have an aggressive strategy is because they need to change the dynamic in this race, right . Even those theres 30plus days left, its not the same as it has been in the past where everybody is out doing five or six events, people are doing toppers with hits on candidates as it has been in the past. And he needs like a different narrative here to make it not about covid or reference on him. The Supreme Court fight is certainly good for him. Im sure that will come up a million times. But from his end i would predict. But, you know, theres some pressure on him, too. Thats why i think well see some pretty aggressive tactics from his end. I would be surprised if we didnt. Yeah. We have a question from the minneapolis star tribune. I think charlie touched on it. Do voters care about americas standing in the world, and what are the risks and benefits of biden emphasizing our global standing in the remainder of the campaign . Is it an inside the beltway or outside the beltway answer to this . Im very much reminded, even though i go to maine partly in the summers, my own head is very much stuck. Youre a beltway in your heart. I need to be very careful. There are americans who care about that. But there are also the americans who watch the pbs newshour in the evening and read the economist and, you know, theyre reading two or three newspapers a day and, you know, its a pretty elite group. For the average person out there, no, i dont think that matters so much. Its their job to get along with us, not their job to get along with them. I mean, that would be the mentality with a lot of people which is horrifying. But i cant say its entirely wrong. Yeah, no. Theres got to be a balance. There ought to be reciprocity. Amanda, any thoughts on americas image as a resident issue . Well, i think the easier way to talk about it with voters is does america need friends in the world . Does that benefit america when we have friends who we can rely on, in times of need . There was a big, lost opportunity to talk about the importance of organizations like the world health organization, which is shocking how easy trump was able to walk away from that and demonize that organization when, you know, we should have been able to explain this is why we need to strengthen our relationship. When something bad like the pandemic happens, we can quickly go into action and have scientists who are on the ground quickly in the world and share information. Got private testing and labs in places like germany way faster than our own cdc, which is so well funded and so well staffed, somehow that mismatch that should have been a conversation with voters. How come these smaller countries were able to do it so quickly and we werent able to copy that information and deploy it here . Thats what friends and standing in the world gets you. It gets you results. When i talk to republicans who have been working inside the administration, theyre very worried that donald trump, in a second term, will absolutely walk away from nat o. This is something he has been talking about doing. Given a second term where he is free to do whatever he likes with no accountability to voters, i would expect him to eagerly walk away from more organizations, which were enacted to help americans and keep americans safe. There are some academics who argue that Foreign Policy, while not substantively of much interest to voters, described Foreign Policy as a gateway issue. That is to say, through a commander in chiefs poise, prudence, dignity, knowledge, competency, toughness, that this is somehow important. So again its another backdoor to the Foreign Policy question. But is that likely to matter . A lot of times you could have something that is, technically speak i speaking, an issue, but its not being used as an issue. Its more of a means to an end. Right. Take china, for example. Lot of times ill be talking to people from the Pacific Basin who will say is china an issue in this campaign . And i will ask, well, wait a minute. Which is the pro china and which is the antichina candidate in this race . I would argue that china, its more like a codule each side is using to beat the daylights out of the other one. Its a weapon. Its not an issue thats pk debated in any serious way. Its a way to inflict harm on the other one. Each one has some at least theoretically exposure, whether its fair or not, on that. And if they want to draw blood from the other and keep it on the other end of the field from them. I guess it cuts to the core issue. What does leadership mean to large segments of the American Public . I mean, the president is the National Repository still of our greatest hopes, aspirations. Were fixated, obsessed with this, with who the president marries, the dogs they have. Its 24 7 job. What they eat. Exactly. We cant get enough of them. So even with trump the disrupter, is there a downside that accompanies that . I would argue perhaps among independents, certainly among democrats, thats the case. B but, i mean, i hate to put that in the it doesnt matter bin. Theres a lot of issues that dont seem to matter. I think whats true is that people may not say im voting on Donald TrumpsNational Security qualifications, for or against it, but theres a line of questioning among focus groups, or people who may have been trump voters in 16 but may be reconsidering. We where they are questioned whether hes up for the job or up for the task. Sometimes theyre saying i wish i didnt vote for him. Sometimes theyre not even criticizing him personally, where democrats need to be careful. Its not as effective as people think it is. But they are questioning, look, the guy had a chance. Should we give him four more . He doesnt appear to be up for the job. And i think that was in part of the messaging from joe bidens speech. It was part of Barack Obamas speech. It was part of Michelle Obamas speech. And i think thats a way that you could see joe biden just go back to the debate try to get under Donald Trumps skin tonight. I will say the question of, you know, Foreign Policy and how you engage in it is always especially when you have an incumbent running, less on joe biden, because he was on the Foreign Relations committee and hasnt worked in Foreign Policy for 50 years. I was on this trip with barack obama if anybody remembers this. We had a couple of people with us who were longtime experts but we did that to kind of jump over what people often shorthand us, the commander in chief test. Is this a person you can see being not just the president of the United States and leader of the party, the leader of the country, but navigating foreign leaders and navigating thorny, National Security issues . That is a hurdle that historically some people have to overcome. What jen is saying is, its like you look at a dining room table and you see a cake. You just see a cake. There are lots of ingredients in that cake, that made that cake. And its whether you want to renew a contract for another four years or not or is this person up to the job or not . There are lots of things that go into that, that are important and you cant leave out. But you cant throw everything in. I mean, i think thats one of the challenges for democrats, theres so many things that you could attack President Trump on. Yeah. You cant High School Debates sometimes you do spreads. You give them a million attacks and theres no way they can answer. That generally didnt work that well. Youve got to foiks on whats important and youve got to let the other ones go by. Yeah. Justin vogt asks on youtube its fascinating. Ive not seen any polling on this. Im sure you all have thoughts. Do American Voters care about foreign intervention to our electoral process and tampering with our institution . Is there any data on that, charlie . Well, i think they care some about when a lot of their tax dollars are going on things, you know, wars that dont seem to be going well or things that they would like to see have more spending on that are going to something else. But it gets down to casualties. Over that shoulder is our son in the 82nd airborne. You can bet we were paying attention. It was really important. That was while you were in the white house, jen, and we were watching that like a hawk in 2012. Thats what people really care about. To the extent that intervention costs lives or maims americans, or displaces money, sucks up money that could be used for things that people really would like, thats important. But just on another level, not i dont think its that much. Yeah. Amanda, jen, any thoughts . Yeah. I was reading into that question more like foreign interference in the election. Right. Oh, im sorry. No, no. More of an issue to voters and i think its because, a, the trump universe did such a job of convincing people it wasnt real until the Mueller Report came out years later and looked and charged the russians who did interfere in the election. But more broadly, it didnt relate down to them. Why did this interference matter to you . So what . What happened with the Trump Campaign, that happened. He still won. And there hasnt been a good Civic Education on how when these actors tamper with the elections, it really impacts their ability to vote. And when i talked about this with just other regular republicans, conservatives who didnt understand this, what i would say to them is, listen, when they were interfering in the election through their social media campaigns, they were impersonating you. They were mocking christian, Second Amendment supporting voters in giving this aura of support to trump that may or may not have existed. They were impersonating your demographic profile to do that. I think thats something were thinking about when talking about why that kind of intervention does matter. It is a low form of identity theft, in my mind. Yeah. We have a few minutes left. Two questions. We can do we can dispense with them quickly, unless you want to add something to them. One question looks backward and the other one looks forward. Well save the forward one for last. Its now going to be october very soon. Does, did, will impeachment factor, in any way, shape or form, into this into Voter Preferences, attitudes, or has it basically gone the way of the dodo . Okay. Anybody. I think its gone the way of the dodo. Yeah. I think democrats are lucky that people have largely moved on and forgot about it. You know, were not talking about the merits. Were talking about something that was going to put the country through a whole lot that never had a slightest chance in the world of being successful. So, they moved on. But its kind of like when you had the democrats oppose the first iraq war, and it was hugely successful and it looked li like, wow, that might have been a big mistake. But other things happened and moved on so they got a pass for having been on the wrong side. And i think democrats are pretty much getting a pass on impeachment, even though i thought from their standpoint i would have thought that anything that distracted from trying to win an election in november of 2020, certainly impeachment would fit there, was less than prudent. I will say when i looked at republican polling, when things really started to get away from trump wasnt after impeachment in february. It was a combination of the pandemic setting in, that he wasnt taking seriously, protests that were breaking out and aftermath of george floyd and his reaction to that. And then also the fact that the democrats did not nominate bernie sanders, as Many Republican feared, but instead selected joe biden who is perceive perceived as a more moderate alternative to donald trump. So those three things really gave people permission to start looking beyond trump, from what ive seen. One more to that list. The loss of the economic tailwind. Yep. That was the most compelling argument to reelect him. Unlike what you would expect, there is no headwind, economic headwind. But its the loss of the tailwind, the loss and most compelling argument he had. I would add that to amandas list. Its a great list. Finally, i will give you my answer first. I know theres 30 days left for an election. I find it hard to imagine that a president who is risk adverse when it comes to the use of military force would, in an effort to create another surprise i just dont understand how it would play or help him push, provoke most likely in the u. S. iranian theater some sort of incident. I say no. What do the three of you say . Or any other october surprises that would create a sense of real Risk Readiness . Amanda . Well, i dont think the october surprise will happen in Foreign Policy because it happened in september with the unexpected death of rbg. And now were going to Supreme Court confirmations. Thats essentially his new vp for the next month. Thats where the intention will be. That was the unexpected factor that came into play at the last minute. Right. I agree with that. Jen . I also think nobody should underestimate how democrats have become a little bit more passionate about the issue of the Supreme Court and the control of the Supreme Court than they were in 2016 and 2012. And i have seen it. I think it could be a motivating issue for people that may not even be super jazzed about joe biden, but are concerned about the future of the Supreme Court. I will say that in the october surprise category, weve already seen hints of this, rushing out a vaccine before its ready and trying to push that out on the marketplace. Thats the place where i would be watching and is alarming, hugely, to me, and should be to many people. Charlie, last word. The october surprise would have been better if it were in september, given how many people will be voting really early. Yeah. So if its an october surprise, it will be awfully futile unless its in really early october because otherwise its oh, well. So what . All right. I want to thank you. I mean, its been accessible. Authoritative commentary. You guys were terrific, truly. On behalf of everybody who is listening, let me thank amanda, charlie and jen. And well see you, figuratively, tonight, i suspect, as will scores of millions of americans. Stay tuned for the next carnegie connects. Take care. Announcer congress is expected to be out of session for much of october. The senate meets today for legislative business but no votes are planned for the next couple of weeks. Majority leader mcconnell says they could meet later in october for possible vote on Supreme Court nominee amy coney barrett. Work continues off the floor on her nomination, including Committee Meetings and confirmation hearings. The house has no plans to meet for legislative business. If theres an agreement on a new covid relief bill, members will get 24 hours notice for a vote if its scheduled. Week nights this month on American History tv, were featuring the contenders. Our series that looks at 14 president ial candidates who lost the election, but had a lasting effect on u. S. Politics. Tonight, author h. W. Brants on henry clay, john c. Calhoun and daniel webster. He explains why the three statesmen were critical to american politics between the war of 1812 and the compromise of 1850. Watch tonight, beginning at 8 00 eastern. Enjoy American History tv this week and every weekend on cspan3. Tonight on the communicators, berin szoka and Jessica Gonzalez on issues that may play a role in campaign 2020. Trying to narrow the protection for content moderation so that websites would no longer be protected if they tried to remove content that they thought was false or perhaps racist. Im no fan of big tech platforms and how theyve abused their workers and how theyve abused the privacy rights of their users. But, frankly, going after section 230 is not the right approach to the very real problems that were seeing with online platforms. Berin szoka and Jessica Gonzalez tonight on the communicators on cspan2. Join us later this week for the Vice President ial debate. Kamala harris and mike pence are set to square off wednesday in salt lake city. Its due to start at 9 00 p. M. Eastern. You can watch it live on cspan. The mayor of chattanooga, tennessee, and the former mayor of philadelphia were part of a conversation on how the coronavirus pandemic e