ian, welcome. you were quoted in a recent interview saying this crisis is, quote, the most seismic geopolitical event since 9/11. is it really that critical, and if so, why? >> well, the united states doesn't have the kind of direct interests at play in ukraine itself, but when we talk about the disposition of russia, one of the world's larger economy toward the west or asia, a real pivot, one that will matter for a long term. this is a major country in play. it's very clear that the relationship with the west is broken. inexorably so. >> give me an idea of their economy. >> it is the eighth world economy. it will grow moderately. >> which is why you would think economic sanctions might have some effect, correct? to avoid recession in that country.