Gains of so far. Worry of this spread and the durability of this group markets. The yield on the ten year hit record lows. With investors seeking the safety of u. S. Government debt. Now the immediate cause of the fear was sudden evidence to the disease taking hold now well outside of china. The number of cases in italy, iran, south korea vote significantly. Trent President Trump sought to calm fears but the u. S. Would also see an epidemic and insisted the country was well prepared to cope. Anointing Vice President pence to take charge of the response. But the head of dissenter for Disease Control said americans will not be immune to the spreading virus. Meanwhile, in politics in the democratic primary, senator Bernie Sanders has his lead ahead of the fields with the strong wind and nevada caucuses ahead of South Carolina primary and super tuesday next week. Now the rapid pace of all these events only underscores the unusual volatile of the challenges facing the country today. The economy continues to perform well, but new technologies are clearly upending the way we work and live. The rapid spread of the coronavirus remind us of the risk and opportunities of america that is tightly connected to the rest of the world. All this at a time of the country seems more divided than ever over its priorities in its direction. And the political stage is increasingly dominated by outsiders first President Trump four years ago and now it seems a democratic socialist who may be rising to lead the opposition. So whats going on . What are these new risks and challenges tells about the evolving state of america . By far the worlds most successful democracy. Earlier, to get a better sense of where this may be headed i talked to one of the countrys most imaginative forecasters. George freedman was founder and chairman of futures and online publication that interprets and analyzes major global trends. He is also the author of a new book, the storm before the calm, americas discord becoming crisis of the 2020s, and the triumph beyond. The new book, its a fascinating account of what you see as a convergence of longterm cycles, longterm trends in the United States since its founding. Can you just give us a little bit of an explanation of that . Of 80 years the United States is a shift in its institutional structure. We are at the point where we are going to do another shift. Gerry so 185060 civil war world war ii,. World war ii we invented the government of experts technology. And weve done very well until we havent. Because experts know Little Things they dont know the whole thing. But weve lost the right to petition the government petitioning the government is fundamental to our constitution and the constitution. When you go to talk to the federal government at this point, there is no one to talk to. In those you talk to have no authority into anyway. You cannot petition a member of congress. Gerry you think that systems broken down . Its broken down in so many ways even the complex system they dont understand. And the individual when they need something that is not anticipated in the regulations there is no common sense. So where American Government after world war ii was operated on common sense and informality it has become rigid and inflexible and unsustainable. On the other side you have the social crisis with happens every 50 years, the reagan era was enormously successful and produced a massive amounts of money. We are now in a period of time where theres few things too invested in the price of money has collapsed so that retirement becomes impossible, savings become meaningless. Gerry to the 80 year institutional cycle in the 50 year social cycle is converging the 2020s. What happens . I think its easier because we cant solve this social problem without changing the way the institutions work. And we cant change the institutions unless we make a transformation in the social cycle. So we are at a time, and i dont want to overstate, we will not be rethinking his americans dont rethink things. What we are doing is under tremendous stress and making significant changes. And during times like this one of the things that happens is our politics go wacky. We have donald trump what more can we say. Gerry that we have Bernie Sanders a socialist. This is a time of the normal process of american politics breaks down and we have a series of incredibly intense and unpleasant elections and behaviors. And that will go on. Gerry what goes on that this goes on for the next two years how do we get beyond that . Is this something that happens organically or do we need to make changes to both our institutions of the way our economy works to get through this and get to the next phase . We are going to have to have political pressure to change the way the government interfaces with the public. And the way in which we create legislation. We dont know that legislation has been created. Gerry Technology Gives us the opportunity for us to do that. Oh talking my things like direct democracy work everyone by hitting a button could make laws every day . Not a doll im speaking of Representative Government where there is representative on the other side who has some authority. The basic fact is an ordinary citizen cannot find anyone who has the right to exercise common sense. That is an amazing revolution really and that will change. Gerry how does that change what is the calm after this storm of 2020 . One thing that has to go is primaries and most people dont pay any attention we wind up in a very strange choices. We used to have party bosses. And they gave us eisenhower, roosevelts, extraordinarily good candidates. Then we have the party system and some were okay and some were not. What we have to go back to is the system the government of the United States had for 30 years which was that the parties were not party of the government. They along to the owners. Gerry this is the left democracy in the party bosses candidates came from smokefilled rooms with largely men who decided who the person was gonna be in your now singer to go back to a less than them democratic approach customer. Its not democratic is a tiny fraction of people cared to choose the job. Like the internet where the idea was we are going to have thoughtful discussion between reasonable people. It turned into chaos. The primaries really did that as well. They turned into a minority of people governing with no recourse. Gerry georgia want to come back and talk about more of the issues you raise your book and more generally the geopolitical trends were facing in the world at the moment. But stay with us, will be back in a coughing hi susan honey . Yeah . I respect that. 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But heres a number you should take to heart zerothe number of fda approvals these products have, when added to statins, to reduce the risk of cardiovascular disease. Ask your doctor about an advancement in prescription therapies with proven protection. Visit truetoyourheart. Com gerry i am back with the founder of political futures george friedman. The 21st century has not so far at least worked out particularly well for the United States theres a paradox there because we ended the 20th century, the 1990s with america the single global power. The soviet union had been defeated, people talked about a unipolar world unites it seem to dominate all. Since 2000 weve had terrorism, disappointing wars in iraq and afghanistan, we had a financial crisis weve had withdrawal. It is not been a great 20 years. Whats gone wrong . In 1991 for the first time in five years there was a single european global power theres only one global power, the United States. It was the first country the staged a revolution against imperialism, but there was. It did not have the institution managing and it did not manage it. Had a world war ii model. They attacked us, we are going to hit them with everything we have. So there is no settled a anything. We have learned a great deal. Barack obama and donald trump, although they would not admit it had a similar view and reduce the amounts of action to take increase the amount of action we take. Gerry is that wrong customer. I think its quite right. Its selfevidently expect 18 year losing wars so ending was probably a good idea. Also, the key thing is the United States is a large economic world power, and more important the largest importer. That power that imports really allows us to dictate other countries what is the price of getting access to denied states. And this we have seen in the confrontation with china over trade. Gerry do you think President Trump is a having the approach right customer. I think its right its same approach a bottle is taking, he was moving in that direction. So despite that of the different ideologies, beliefs, personalities, history compels the United States a certain direction. Gerry lets talk about china you just raise it there. That is obviously the emerging great power and many peoples views, secondlargest economy in the world people many people think will overtake the United States the next hit ten, 15, 20 years. Growing military and political power. Going to real crisis right now on multiple levels. Challenges to its own rule, like hong kong, chinas Economic Growth United States, and of course most recently this coronavirus. Give us your sense, your longterm observing of whats going on there. So china elses economy on exports. Since 2008 the world is been an export crisis. The exporters are scrambling for markets. Chinas Financial System resembles it. We can take a look at japan, the way it collapsed in 1980s. You see a model there. The important thing to understand is the key thing she was it elected do is control the country. You dont need a dictator if youre in good shape. And his biggest job was to manage the president of the United States who could not be managed by anyone. On this person understood that the United States we ask for less than half of a percent gdp they have over 4 and would stop that. They were in trouble. The problem with the virus is, we dont know what it does. It was so badly mishandled by president xi jinping let a combination of secrecy and incompetence, now the question is does he survive . The idea theyre going to bypass the United States with their Economic Growth. Their Growth Numbers are collapsing and i dont believe them anyway. The china release their gdp numbers. Gerry with this really question residents shes position . Lets take a look hong kong, the South China Sea made no progress whatsoever. Confrontation with the United States, many things going wrong in the Financial System that is deeply troubled. And now this. I thought before this happened come inside the Central Committee there moves being made, raising the question does president xi jinping really know what hes doing . I think this is going to push it over the edge. Gerry what could follow him could be worse in terms of authoritarianism. You have a sense . Thereto of china one model is the emperors powerful the countries united in the other was in place a hundred years was chinas fragmented. Its interesting to me they brought in the head of the Shanghai Party because shanghai has been fighting with beijing quietly a great deal. So there is a regionalism in china that is frequently ignored. Gerry let me stop you there gerry let me stop you there got to get a quick imagine traveling hasslefree with your golf clubs. Now you can, with shipsticks. 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We also keep them ready for the next big opportunity. Like 5g. woman where machines could talk to each other and expertise could go anywhere. woman when it comes to Digital Transformation, verizon keeps business ready. I am totally blind. And non24 can throw my days and nights out of sync, keeping me from the things i love to do. Talk to your doctor, and call 8442142424. [ fastpaced drumming ] gerry i am back with george friedman. George is directly United States, that the president ial election coming up in a matter of months. We still dont know who the democratic nominee is going to be. It looks increasingly like or we could have Bernie Sanders. The next president ial election this year it be to political outsiders. Donald trump from four years ago he wasnt given a hope by many people the republican side. A nationalist, and economic nationalist very much against the grain of the Republican Party for the last 20 or 30 years. On the democratic side we could have a selfdeclared socialist very much different than the Democratic Party. What is that tell us about american 2020 . During the crisis, the outsiders come in. So its not as if weve had a highly successful corps of politicians who we can turn to. We have very questionable ones. That part of the public like him precisely because he was an outsider. And then turning sanders i love to win or not, but theyre turning to sanders for the same reason. The Democratic Party is moving away from anything weve seen before. Thats what you expect to see this political cycle. This is the preface. Out of the preface will come the real struggle, who are we, what do we want, and just as Ronald Reagan and Franklin Roosevelt emerged at these times, someone will emerge. In the meantime, we got warren g harding, and richard nixon. [laughter] x the way it works. Gerry there does seem to be a fair amount of pushback by the establishment for both of these on the republican and democratic side. I dont know what we can type do deep state in washington. Are they being a clips now . Are we really into a. Riordan political competition between two people with a radically different views on how the government should be run for those who have run it for so long. Americas ruthless in the establishment has not been succeeding. They havent had that much accountability. There looking at the behavior of the meter of donald trump or they are horrified the extremism of the senators. They dont forget is they didnt succeed. What youre seeing here is a natural process is bloodied and nasty as is, they are dealing with the establishment. There is no establishment. They think there is an establishment, biting for the New York Times there must be an establishment, but the countries not listening. Gerry is it possible to see commonalities between aiken we dont know hes going to get the nominee he can still be beaten. But between Bernie Sanders and donald trump. As different as they are in terms of the way the economy should be run, is it possible to see the forces that are driving them in common terms . They both promised not to be the way it was before. What they have in common is not any real vision of what should come, but a real sense that what came before is over. Until this is the transition points common in this transition point you will see politics that will convince people the republic has collapsed. Gerry and the minute or so we have remitting back to the theme of your book come the storm we are going through in the calm, what do we get to the end of this process . What we get after truck, sanders, or whatever comes after that, what does america look like and tenure time . The problems are dealing is this. The middle class earns 35000 a year. Thats a lower rental class we have house in a car, thats impossible for the vast numbers of the white industrial class are being thrown out. There is a term mendez struggle with the universities everything else. This class, that has to be handled. The place is at the university and you see that battle he be getting. Gerry at the moment its being won by the woefully politically correct crowd you think theyll change question work. And how soon it will. These people know that to get access to the elites, they have to get to the university. The university is financed by 16 trillion in government loans. When those loans stop, the ability to work six hours a week will go away. And when that goes away, university is going to be forced to reconsider itself. That process is going on right now. Gerry the book is the storm before the calm. Up next, my thoughts on american. Civilians in the face of global and domestic im your mother in law. And i like to question your every move. Like this left turn. Its the next one. You always drive this slow . How did you make someone i love . That must be why youre always so late. I do not speed. And thats saving me cash with drivewise. My son, he did say that you were the safe option. And thats the nicest thing you ever said to me. So get allstate. Stop bossing. Where good drivers save 40 for avoiding mayhem, like me. This is my sons favorite color, you should try it. [mayhem] you always drive like an old lady . [tina] youre an old lady. Tits great actually, ive been listening to audible. Its audiobooks, news, meditations. Gotta go hey you know, i do think its weird youve started commuting when you work from home. Ill be in my office. Download audible and start every day off right. Can we go get some ice cream . Alright, we gotta stop here first. From smarter atms, to after hours video tellers comcast business is connecting thousands of banks to technology that turns everyday transactions into extraordinary experiences. Hi there. How are you . Do you have any lollipops in there . laughing no, sorry. Were helping all kinds of businesses go beyond customer expectations. How can we help you . Earning on that eclair. Dont touch it dont touch it yet let me get the big one. This one . No this one . Yes no. The big one theyre all the same size with freedom unlimited, youre always earning. Let me get them all. Im gonna get them all. I cant decide. Gerry these are undoubtedly unsettling times, pandemics, market panics, rising global tensions that propel us to turn inward as a nation. But home, loss of faith in traditional politics and institutions and a makes enemies fellow americans. This all leads us to want to try something new and different. Nationalism perhaps, socialism, anything not associated with conditions that created the certain uncertainty. But america we should not forget is uniquely blessed with robust institutions built to withstand the rising positions. And the creativity to develop solutions and technology, healthcare, finance, education, and yes indeed, governments. That paved the way for a better future. And worrying as things may be, we can take comfort the country has survived much worse. It should also be noted that despite the challenges by most measures, these are still among the best of times in this countries a short history. With that, thats it for this week, for though it is show updates be sure to follow me on twitter, facebook an instagram, i will be back next week with an indepth look at the super tuesday primary results right here on the wall street journal at large. Thank you so much for joining. This week the markets rocked by the coronavirus as it spreads around the world. What it means for the economy in your portfolio. Mortgage rates fell to three year low, how low can they go . And is now the time to refinance . And the stocks that defied wall streets wild ride, which ones are Holding Steady and why . Barrons roundtable starts now. Welcome to barrons roundtable we get behind the headlines to prepare you for the week ahead. I am jack otter. We begin with what we think are the three most important things investors should be thinking about right now. Coronavirus feared have a Market Correction what to expect them here. Some stayathome stocks held up better during the storm, with got the nays and whats ahead. And bob stepped down at disney, why it makes sense the themepark has take the helm. Ben levisohn, jack hough, you dont need us to tell you its an ugly week on wall street heres a rescan s p 500 plunged into correction territory down 11. 5 for the week that makes february at the worst month of the market since the great recession. Treasury years fell to their lowest yield ever with attend yield on trade year yield low but the recent Market Action perspective. Longterm investors have had a wonderful decade since the market in 2009 stocks have delivered a total return of 448 . Ben, what should make of all this . See necklace talk recession. Do we have to . Profanity right out of the gate. Around a year ago thats been very reliable recession signal. The fed went ahead and did the rate cut and everybody talked about the planning and then we thought forgot about it but everyone was saying at the end there is no sign of recession and lissa get a shock guess what we got the shock. This is gonna be a problem the economy wasnt looking all that great even before we had the coronavirus come along. Jack thats contrary to what were here and give us some data on that. First met her industrial pmi this Industrial Survey data was Getting Better but the service pmi was getting worse. Job openings were falling, they werent looking for as many workers thats not good things. Then along comes the coronavirus and this is very possibly people just stay home and stop shopping. The economy grinds to a halt and this is not the worst Case Scenario where we all told have to work from home and then you have real problems. I think the recession might be coming but their only knowledge of recession is what happened in 2008 with the Global Financial crisis. Recessions they do happen we dont want to talk about the pain but we had recessions in 1949, 67 and 90 that we dont talk about anymore. So a recession may come, i think we may need to keep in mind is what happened 12 years ago. Smack in after recession had pent up demands. Exactly city of recession or people are staying at home, because their corn cedar working remotely, when things turn around, there is going to be that pentup people again to be using goods and services again. I just want to point out bennis could be a nice guy he only gets grumpy when he talks of the coming recession. I am not quite there with you. But what i will say if i have to guess around the stock market i guess up and keep it simple. But we think of the stock market is following reflecting the economy. Sometimes it does but sometimes the economy follows and reflects the stock market. Consumers have felt pretty flush from this long bull market. If you have stocks continue to slide from here you could get a reverse wealth effect or would start to hurt spending. I think thats a lease on friday where he had the fed come out the statement while the market was in turmoil saying we are aware of the situation right now. We will use the appropriate tools if needed. In the market turned around then on friday and that may be why. I want to ask you one weird thing then, the market plummet in gold goes down with it. Usually when the market goes down gold goes up. Two and today the gold is doing great until today. The rumors out there basically theres a lot of margin calls. We get a margin call you sell what has made you money, in this case its gold. Jack other things went up over the last week which most people wont realize there are a few stocks that were really green what happened with that. Where to calling at the stayathome stocks this is when your quarantines where the goods and services you will be using. She had zoom Video Communications or people are forced to work remotely or cant travel, youre going to have videoconferencing. Peloton, the 2000dollar exercise bike makes a little more sense and people dont want to go to the gym. You have netflix going up, clarks going up, people are going to disinfect everything. Youve got to wipe off the peloton. [laughter] be nine jack Something Else is happening in the market. Non virus news bob iger replaced by bob j peck you spoke with them on the phone everyone has respected bob in what is and at the park for the last five years why would you go to parks i would every talks about streaming so thats disneys biggest earners television so why would you go to bob meyer with the streaming business the first answer is parks are the fastestgrowing part of disney right now. They are becoming profoundly popular and i can envision in the next couple of years parks overtaking television becoming the business. Also hes got 19 years of hollywood experience before he ran the parks business if you ask about streaming he says its not called streaming is called direct to consumer. And there is nothing more direct to consumer than running the parks. Jack tough time he because parks are not the place we want with the possible pandemic. Jack barely had to close in shanghai and hong kong. You can see a downturn in attendance here in the u. S. Is things get worse. But keep in context this is a business where you are at 7 billion in operating profit just up from a few billion dollars five years ago youre probably headed for 10 billion so things are moving in the lon right direction over longterm. Jack kind of rough guide he agreed customer. I spoke with him at disney world last year at about 285degree orlando heat. He is matter of fact. I have something in the magazine are described below bit and i say hes not what you would call an oscar party raconteur. He likes to get down to business. He is a guy who talks about storytelling and be at the heart of every thing disney does, something ive heard many times from bob iger. Jack torsten from deutsche telling talking about the telling talking about the markewhile the world keeps fighting for your attention. Well keep building smarter suvs. To help keep you focused on the road ahead. And. The road beside. Did we mention the road ahead. With an available best in class. 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Call right now. What i pray is that you wont turn your eyes but you will look at their suffering and your heart will be changed. [presenter] with your gift of just 25 we can rush an emergency survival package to help one desperate elderly person for a month. Call right now. Jack coronavirus be a fierce spook investors and pushed into the fastest correction ever from a peak. Deutsche bank torsten slok tells what means for the global markets. Torsten you had a widely misquoted chart can you tells what it said and what it didnt say . The point of this chart is to try to figure out how quick was this correction that we saw over the last week, and the answer is if you look at it from the peak that was an alltime hi, how many days did it take before we got a 10 correction . This was the fastest we have seen basically since the 1930s. So the reason why this is interesting is doing from euphoria basically a week ago we are at alltime high every thing is good, now we suddenly have a whole different view now that we come to the end of this week. Jack s are generally investors are told when everyone else is selling youre supposed be buying. At what point do you determine its a buying opportunity or you aint seen nothing yet its going to get worse . The old saying is you do it at the worse and you look at the situation today can get much worse . The problem with the situation is so difficult to figure out what the imp occasions are because the coronavirus is going to hit both the supply side of the economy more people be staying home, the b disruption of supply chain, so basically therell be less productive and less apply the economy overall bit on the man said bergens see people going less to restaurants, less traveling. Basically having less consumption which means thats going down. The magnitude of these things combine those most importantly with the stock makes it very hard to figure out where we are at the worst yet. But we will look worried at next week how things obese still significant the downside going ahead. Jack thats an important point because everyone throughout the tenure bull market has had the consumer, so important to the economy has remained strong. At what point does the consumer get a little worried and starts point that . This is really critical the Unemployment Rate is essentially at the lowest level in 50 years. So from that backdrop, this coronavirus, came at a time when the economy did recently well from that perspective number of other things you worry about. Job creation is good but moving into next week we will not get any information from payroll numbers about the coronavirus. This was all measured before this week. So thats like wise for the corporate sec. We dont have a corporate sector will be taking this hit. So we really dont get any information thats particularly helpful. That means a cloud of uncertainty is still hanging over the markets. We are quite worried looking ahead next week this continues to be a problem. Jack can you explain to victory . This virus originated in china but the u. S. Market was having such a horrible week, chinese stocks were doing relatively better, ways that . One thing i thing that is going on and when you look at what markets have been doing over the past week, is that there are signs theres improvements in the number of people affected and also improvements generally speaking the Second Derivative here is the slowing growth and that looks to be a little bit better particular in china or it looks to be a lot worse in europe and the u. S. Still. We really dont know how well its measured. That of course maybe china is having a little bit away from the coronavirus problem. Where is here its getting to be more of a problem. Too that could explain some of the reasons why we have seen some assets in china over there and in particular to up a little bit in those have benefited from the idea that china is beginning to move away from the corona problem. P9 how you look in International Diversification right now . Other areas in the world that look like an opportunity . From that thing we are looking to see where we see things are going to improve and deteriorate. Thats very difficult when you look broadly. Europe was also hit quite hard this week. Now the insurgency is really about the u. S. At the moment, which is why you see u. S. Rates and levels of Interest Rates come down. Much more than what you have seen in europe and internationally. Jack so what should we take from that . Bond market relish would be happy about that . Or the bond market signaling worse to come . Wed have today globally about 14 trillion in negative yielding debt in the world. Thats roughly 25 have an negative Interest Rate. To the Interest Rate is of course Interest Rates are going down is normally goodness in particular people had the moment rates bed and bad news in the situation code has a reflex to things, both that people might be revising their views and Inflation Expectations are going down people think Economic Activity and gdp of a going forward. Also reflects another thing that people are going away from and have to have a safe asset and the safest acid is just treasuries. So yield metals are going down because both people revising the strategic outlook and also because people are selling more risky assets, Corporate Bonds, highyield, ig, and also target being their money in u. S. Treasuries. Jack and thats has worked out this week. Coming up historic low Mortgage Rates have a lot of homeowners thing about refinancing. Economist mark zandi weighs in. In. Well be right back. Every year, our analysts visit thousands of companies, in a multitude of countries, where we get to know the people that drive a companys growth and gain new perspectives. Thats why we go beyond the numbers. T. Rowe price. Invest with confidence. Thats why we go beyond the numbers. Tto examine investmentgo opportunities firsthand, like innovations in agricultural research. Because your investments deserve the full story. T. Rowe price invest with confidence. How you watch it does too. Tv just keeps Getting Better. This is xfinity x1. Featuring the Emmy Awardwinning voice remote. Streaming Services Without changing passwords and input. Live sports with realtime stats and scores. Access to the most 4k content. And your movies and shows to go. The best tv experience is the best tv value. Xfinity x1. Simple. Easy. Awesome. Xfinity. The future of awesome. Jack market turmoil has sent treasury yields to never be sort of scene load and Mortgage Rates are falling prey what is it mean . Should homeowners rush to refinance . Mark zandi joins the panel. Thanks for joining us mark parham stocks the punches got most the headlines this week, but tells was going on the bond market . Well, their record lows. Tenyear treasury are closing in on 1 , officer reflecting the panic and the bad news and prospects for global recession. So rates are falling. Not falling is much as Corporate Bond yields because her concerns about the credit quality of the companies. So we are seeing spreads at wyden for highyield debt and other corporate debt. Mortgage rates are falling, they are more tied to longterm Interest Rates as you pointed out 30 year fixedrate Mortgage Rates are now pretty close to record lows. If theres any good news and whats going on here, its for homeowners and folks who are looking to refinance their mortgage. This a bigger time to do it. Jack want to ask about that but quickly due to the falling yield is worse to come . I think it signaling recession. I think were going to have a global recession. If the cdc is right, and the virus shows up here in a meaningful way, for example for closing schools and different committees across the country, yes, i think its going to be very difficult to avoid a recession, and thats precisely what the stock market and the bond market is telling us. Signaling fears all over the world. We are in the strongest economy on the planet, we are still aaa credit on the planet. Theres a problem anywhere, money comes pouring into here. Weve got a problem so the rest the world has a big problem. For a while he been hearing about the strength of the u. S. Consumer. But the fears of the coronavirus and recession is there reason to worry . Yes, the stock market reflects the economy but also impacts the economy very directly. We have a lot of baby boomers and visitors in fact free of baby boomers own more than half of all of the stocks in the country. Over 25 of all their assets, financial and nonfinancial are tied up in stocks. Boomers are in their 50s and 60s and their focus on the stock market like a laserbeam, thats their nest egg. If that nest egg starts to diminish and clearly diminish this week, theyre going to respond to that. Obviously the virus goes away, the stock market rebounds no big deal. Kind of like what happened back in 18, if it stays down out expect to see that in weaker consumer spending, particularly among those boomers at least at first. Thats a prescription for recession. The line between in expanding rick connie and it recession is the american consumer. I hear about panic selling in stocks is there such thing as a panic refinancing on mortgages . Is that what people should be doing . I look at treasury yield diving and im trying to figure out what is the best time for folks to start calling riverbanks. Should they wait for breakfast time on wednesday . One is again hit bottom on Mortgage Rates. Now, go online and so you can do literally. The average coupon and outstanding mortgages 4 . To the typical american homeowner is a 4 Mortgage Rate but Mortgage Rates are three and a quarter so youre in the money you get theres going to be a fee shrink that money back in a year because of the lower rate. Its time to move, i would move very quickly. Youre talking recession is the bank going to want to give someone like me a mortgage . I dont know about you. But for the typical person freddie. Sandy mae fha, yeah sure they are going to sell that bank wells fargo, quicken, theyre going to make that loan and then theyre gonna sell it to fannie or freddie or fha or whomever it is. Theres going to be a buyer there. Thats not going to change. If not a down the middle kind of potential homeowner with credit score loantovalue ratio debt to income ratio youre not in the sweet spot of the loans the banks gonna make that on their own Balance Sheet theyre gonna take the risk. You may have a problem that might be more difficult for you. If you look at house prices relative to incomes, rents, things like that you think housing in america broadly speaking is a good deal right now . Depends on where you are if you are out west, west of the Mississippi House prices are very sharply very high relative to income and rent. Valuation becoming an issue but with a downdraft in Interest Rates, thats going to give another jump up and house prices. Heres what i say, abstract and from nearterm things. The housing market, particularly for affordable housing, workforce housing, the plainvanilla housing is vastly undersupplied, we dont have enough homes and we are not building enough homes to meet the underlying demand. Jack bergen have to leave it there thank you very much. At the next roundtable members give their suggestions for the next week. Stay right there. Schwab, a modern approach to wealth management. I am totally blind. And non24 can make me show up too early. Or too late. Or make me feel like im not really there. Talk to your doctor, and call 8442342424. woman no matter what business you are in, Digital Transformation never stops. Verizon keeps business ready for whats next. man we weave security into their business. second man virtualize their operations. third man and could even build ai into their customer experiences. We also keep them ready for the next big opportunity. Like 5g. woman where machines could talk to each other and expertise could go anywhere. woman when it comes to Digital Transformation, verizon keeps business ready. The better question would be where do i not listen to it. While im eating my breakfast. On the edges of cliffs. On a ski lift. Everywhere. Download audible and start listening today. Jack subject, earlier this show you said whenever anyone asks you what the markets going to do you gas up. I still optimistic after this week . I am, i need something calming. I dont do yoga said this is financial yoga. Deep breaths. But assume any position you and think about the basic principles of the thing its not we just point to a chart and say stocks outperformed bonds and commodities and other assets. Its what stocks represent. When you are invested in them you are invested in people with talent across the country, around the world. These businesses only exist to the extent they can turn financing and stuff, which is another saying bonds and commodities, into higher returns. B9 karlsruhe start with you. Campbell soup. This is a corona virus people stocking up on canned soup goods, it limited international exposure. Also the companies under activist attack two years ago its wellness away and turned around plants of the still room to grow outside of the coronavirus. Berkshire hathaway. Stock has a Balance Sheet is been beaten up, it is like the market but its with Warren Buffett its a kind of self he loves. Stock will probably degrade from here. Jack and of course when things are going bad, hes got a lot of money on a think youll do good things of that. Thanks very much ben mark carlton jack thanks for listening different follows on twitter at barrons online. Thats all for us, see you next week on barrons roundtable. [ ] gregg good evening, im Gregg Jarrett sitting in for the vacationing lou dobbs. Monday lou declared the coronavirus a pandemic. Now it has spread to at least 56 countries. Despite the threat, the World Health Organization refuses to call it a pandemic but opting to increase their Risk Assessment globally to very high. The spread of the virus, the
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