Transcripts For CNBC Closing Bell 20140314

Mind about where stocks are going for the long term, and thats higher. A lot higher as a matter of fact. Well hear more from Warren Buffett coming up here. General motors doing more damage control today after a report shows there was a simple fix to the ignition problem that costs as little as 1 a car. The company made a socalled business decision not to spend that money. Today we investigate how a decision like that ever gets made in a company like gm. The answer is illuminating and alarming. It continues to be the story gripping the entire world. More fast moving developments in the malaysia aramis tri including evidence thats prompting investigators to become more convinced this was not an accident and the flight may have been deliberately diverted. Or something worse maybe. Were going to try and have the very latest for you coming up a little later. Certainly not helping to soothe markets right now. The dow popping up a little bit since we just mentioned it was off 50. Its now off only about 38. 16,070 is the level. The nasdaq up 12 points today and the s p 500 off 4, 1842 is the level there. The fact is sliced so quickly through 1850 where there had been some sense of support is certainly what traders are watching. Something one of our next guests is watching in our the closing bell exchange. Diane from clear alternatives, kenny polcari. Bill smith, jason pride and our own rick santelli. And, kenny, does anybody want to be long this market going in . The big referendum on crimea possibly joining russia is on sunday, and washington says they will stand ready, whatever that means, should this referendum pass. What does that mean for the stock market . Here is what i think. I think thats whats baked into the stock market. I think people expect crimea is going to go. I think they expect the u. S. And eu will stand up and impose sanctions. As long as russia doesnt move into ukraine, i actually think that the market is expecting that. You might see the market attempt to rally on monday as a result. Jason, what do you think and how does it play into the decisions people are making . Sure. This year weve been saying that investors need to be constructively positioned. That means hague a littving a l of overweight to equities. Economics are relatively decent. You might be pushing higher generally. What we havent been recommending is weve been telling investors be careful not to get too far over your skis. Dont be in a position where youre so overweight equities that when these things like ukraine come around or like the emerging market complex having some issues or china having some issues or even europe with their asset quality or later this year probably having some issues, theres going to be risk. Some investors will bail out of the market. Thats going to be providing opportunities for investors to buy and you need to be in a position where you will be comfortable buying in that environment and that means being only modestly overweight equities not all the way over your skis so you are freaking out if the markets take a little bit of a dive. Lets talk about the Economic Data that has suggested an economic slowdown in china, and i sense a possible conflict among a couple of our guests here. Diane, you call this more important than ukraine. Bill smith, you say china is merely noise. Have at it. Diane, you first. Absolutely. I think one of the things thats really key, of course, the ukraine is an issue, and we all are concerned about the people of the ukraine. But one of the things thats key is we have this dramatic slow go down happening in china. Its a longterm phenomena. And the other thing thats really important, Many Chinese Companies use copper as their collateral. Weve had these dramatic prices with copper and we see a very strong dollar. That means individual companies throughout china could also be in trouble when their banks call them and ask them to recollateralize these loans. I think china can pose a much larger problem than the market is already giving it credit for. Bill, why do you think this is noise . China is not a consumption country, so i dont think it really affects america or the rest of the world that much. I think the events in the ukraine, i think thats why the markets sold off going into today and into monday, but i think as long as we get out of the ukraine without any conflict, i think the markets rally next week. Juneau, bill, theres a line out of china picked up by the news wire. Government source saying dont panic if First Quarter gdp target is below. What opportunities does that create . As clear a message as they can come out of china. If anybody believes anything china says, i guess you can put something into that, but i dont. So i really think china is not material here. Rick santelli, let me move on here because, again, this is another day, rick, where equity traders are watching the bond market very carefully and the message from the tenyear treasury. What is it telling you today . Well, the fact that once again we traded down to a yield level close to 2. 60 , did not go through it. The reason its important, the february 3rd low closing yield for the tens was 2. 57 . Thats hugely important. I couldnt tell today, bill, if we were following stocks or they were following us. Yesterday i thought it was more clear that we were leading the way on the treasury side. That makes me a little nervous, to see its a tough call, to see were not at the low yields even though theres some time left leads me to believe that whats going on in crcrimea, what may happen on sunday, obviously its all important. Countries have that nuclear weapons, fat tails, anything could happen. But most likely as i look at the eurocurrency, still very close to 139, i dont see that this thing is going to move in ugly ways. Natural gas, whether its the money that putin needs, look at what his stock market and his currency have done or that europe and merkel need, i think thats going to take care of things outside of who is bossing the country around. As for china, our guest is right, theyre not a consumption economy, but, gee, what happens when you have all those people that youre trying to feed, you have moved from rural areas and urban areas, you tried to improve the middle class, they will knock the price of exports down. That will affect europe. All that, of course, affects the u. S. And not the least of which to mention is what happens to the German Economy already dealing with a highpriced currency if they have to compete on an export level. Thats where it starts to unravel. Jason, if investors wanted a port in the storm, its interesting gold and silver have behaved as they have. Theyre up 13 , 8 respectively but they havent been that correlated to whats happening with stocks. Are you telling people to start looking at these Precious Metals again . We are not actually. Theyve come down a good degree, but when it turns to Precious Metals, they provide insurance, they provide some sort of protection or noncorrelation or diversification versus other things in the portfolio. They occupy a little bit of a spot on that basis but at some Point Insurance is too expensive. I think those valuations even on gold at these points, even down from the 1,800 announced level is still too expensive of insurance to be buying in portfolios. Its not the best way do it. If youre going to get insurance, do it in other ways. You can do it with municipal securities which are a better run for taxable investors. Theres some Institutional Investors that are even buying that as an offset to the risk in their equity port portfolios. There are cheaper options you can provide insurance to your portfolio with. Kenny, kelly mentioned the support levels on the s p that weve blown through this week. Walk us through this last hour and what youre going to watch here, especially since we are below the 1850 level right now. So were testing 1840 and i think 1830 is really the number on the s p. Thats the 50day moving average. Thats where its going to want to test to see if theres really support. I wouldnt be surprised if we see it in the last hour, the market get weaker as we move into the closing bell just because its the weekend thats coming and its going to create that kind of nervousness. That being said, i think its going to find support at 1830. On the other hand, just another note on the gold issue, keep your eyes on that chart. Youre about to have a golden cross where the 50 day crosses up to the 200 day. As a technical bullish buy signal or gold and gold probably has a little more on the upside. The august highs of 1415, 1418. Diane, what do you think about the Precious Metals . People prekly go to Precious Metals as a hedge but one of the things thats important to think about is after this weekend when we start trading on monday again, that also ends up being expiration week. I think with the higher volatility, when people are looking for incremental yield, higher volatility means that selling options will be a much better way to generate that marginal yield relative than just going out and buying commodities. I think its going to take us another two weeks before we really get a clean look at this market. So a lot of open interest in the market right now in the Options Market that needs to work its way through next week. Bill smith, what are you doing to navigate our market . I think you stay with companies have that event driven situations going on, spinoffs, share buybacks, mergers, acquisitions. Theres a catalyst that are going to create value for you. How many decimal points of pi can you name . How many decimal points of what . Pi. Its pi day. I think i only can go to 3. 14. I dont know the rest. If youd asked me about 30 years ago, maybe. Listen, one more point we have to bring up, yesterday when we saw the Federal Reserve information come out and their Balance Sheet is now 4. 18 trillion, there was also a category called Foreign Central Bank holdings. Yes. Im so glad you mentioned this. 4 billion and speculation is certainly that maybe something it was one of the biggest moves weve seen with Foreign Central Banks dumping u. S. Treasuries and yet the yield was rallying. This was three times the size because i dont think it was a sell. And you brought up the salient feature, everybody is debating this via email. It probably wasnt sold. It was probably just transferred off the fed Balance Sheet. Ahha. Thank you. Happy pi day. Happy st. Paddys day almost. Beware the ides of march. Apparently were getting snow again come monday. Could be a lot, too. Dont blame the messenger. 30 minut 50 minutes left in the trading session. The dow trying to avoid five consecutive down days but down 41 points. Russias stock market hitting a 4 1 2year low ahead of the referendum to secede from ukraine. Will those kind of ugly losses only be confined to russia . Later, we get a report on that malaysian airliner mystery. Suspicions are growing foul play may have been involved. If you could only own one of these two stocks, which one would it be . Visa or mastercard . Well try to get the answer from dom chu and seema mody. Stay with us. Stay with us. No two people have the same financial goals. Pnc investments works with you to understand yours and helps plan for your retirement. Talk to a pnc investments Financial Advisor today. Just take a closer look. It works how you want to work. With a Fidelity Investment professional. Or managing your investments on your own. Helping you find new ways to plan for retirement. And save on taxes where you can. So you can invest in the life that you want today. Tap into the full power of your fidelity greenline. Call or come in today for a free oneonone review. announcer scottrade knows our and invest their own way. With scottrades smart text, i can quickly understand my charts, and spend more time trading. Their quick trade bar lets my account follow me online so i can react in realtime. Plus, my local scottrade office is there to help. Because they know i dont trade like everybody. I trade like me. Im with scottrade. announcer ranked highest in Investor Satisfaction with selfdirected services by j. D. Power and associates. The russian stock market has been hitting a 4 1 2year low ahead of this weekends terroripivotal referendum. Hi, kelly. Well, this referendum is now only two days away. A meeting in london today between secretary of state john kerry and his russian counterpart didnt make any progress. Lavrov came out of that meeting saying there was no shared vision, which seems a bit of an understatement. It does now seem that russia is going to press ahead quickly with the formal annexation of this peninsula soon after the referendum results announced on monday or tuesday a referendum that will almost certainly endorse them joining russia. At the same time we can expect to see european and u. S. Sanctions click in as early as next week. So things now really coming to a head. The defense ministutistry in mo saying there are 8,500 Russian Troops on exercise close to the east ukraine border. Now, president putin has said he has no intention of invading east ukraine, but, of course, he did say he had no intention either of annexing crimea a short while ago. Now, here the situation is very tense. We have seen rival protests. Ukrainian activists have complained of intimidation. There have been disappearances. Two days to go, very tense. Back to you guys. Nbcs ian williams there. Ian, thanks very much. Thank you. So whats next for the markets amid this geopolitical and Economic Uncertainty . Lets bring in terry miller, former ambassador to the United Nations economic and social council. Ambassador, its great to have you with us. What do you expect will happen over the weekend . Well, i expect this referendum to go ahead and i expect the people will vote in favor of some sort of greater relationship with russia. The question then is what do we do about it . And theres been a lot of tough talk, but we have to wait and see what actions are actually taken. Well, the talk is about economic sanctions. A, should they, b, would they work . Well, i think almost certainly they should be. We in the west need to make some sort of response, but the initial sanctions were talking about are very modest. Theyre on individuals, things like travel restrictions and asset freezes on individuals. That, of course, can expand in the future to things like cutting off all relationships between russian banks and western banks. That would have a severe impact on russia. Mr. Ambassador yes. Im sorry, go ahead. Well, already in russia you see the stock market is in free fall, the ruble is in free fall, Interest Rates are up, capital is fleeing out of the country. The real question has to be does Vladimir Putin care about any of this . I think in the short run the answer is probably not. I was just going to ask what you think his end game is here . What is the strategy . What is Vladimir Putin thinking . I dont think he wants to push this too much farther. Hes made a huge gain in the short run in this move into crimea. At the same time the situation overall in ukraine is not necessarily favorable for him. Certainly whats going on in the western part of ukraine is that people there are being driven ever more closely towards europe and the European Union. So i think at some point putin is going to have to stop and sit back and take stock of where he is before he makes any further moves. We all know how dependent europe is on the russian natural gas. I mean, he uses that as a sort of a weapon economically against europe, but at the same time during this crisis we realize the possibility of exporting u. S. Natural gas, not in the near term, but eventually. I mean, does this alter a fundamental relationship do you think down the road between europe and russia if, in fact, the u. S. Can make up the difference for what they will not be getting in terms of natural gas from russia . And would that matter to Vladimir Putin . I think a crisis like this certainly ought to make russia european leaders realize the vulnerability that they have created because of their dependency on russian natural gas. At the same time Vladimir Putin is just as dependent on the europeans for the revenue that comes in from those sales of russian natural gas. So theres quite a bit of interdependence there, but you raise the question of u. S. Exports, and its absolutely criminal that we have these restrictions by our federal government on the export of our own natural gas. Thats a longterm solution, but its certainly one we ought to be undertaking. I wonder if we ought to be thinking about this, just strategically from russias point of view, wanting to secure access to ports on the black sea, potentially on the baltic sea, given the arctic sea is the only other real option. If thats the case sort of viewing ukraine as a Strategic Asset and understanding why he is stone ya might be so concerned and if all of this is true and russia is looking to assert its influence in the key regions and more broadly, what does nato do . Well, thats the key question. Nobody wants a military confrontation with russia, and im certain that russia doesnt want a military confrontation with the west. But at the same time weve been offering weve been in a posture of strategic weakness for the last five years or so, and weve withdrawn, we withdrew our Missile Defense forces from poland and chezechoslovakia jus in a sort of unilateral concession to russia, and we didnt respond strongly to russias move into georgia. I think from Vladimir Putins point of view, he sees a west, and particularly a United States thats in retreat, not massive retreat, but in a retreat at the margins, and hes trying to move in and take advantage of that. Okay. This weekend will be key in how all of that plays out. Mr. Ambassador, thank you so much for your time. My pleasure. About 40 minutes to go to the close. The dow is off 31 points. The s p 500 off 4, 1842 is the level there. General motors recall crisis has been escalating in the last 24 hours. Nbc news breaking the story that gm engineers found a partial fix for the faulty ignition switches nine years ago. That fix would have cost 1 per car, and it was a business decision made not to implement it. Fim phil lebeau with the latest developments. Its not just whats is in your wallet, instead, its what to be in your portfolio. Visa versus mastercard. Which one is a better buy . Thats coming up. Thats coming. [ male announcer ] its simple physics. A body at rest tends to stay at rest. While a body in motion tends to stay in motion. Staying active can actually ease arthritis symptoms. But if you have arthritis, staying active can be difficult. 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Patients also taking aspirin and the elderly are at increased risk for stomach bleeding and ulcers. Dont take celebrex if you have bleeding in the stomach or intestine, or had an asthma attack, hives, other allergies to aspirin, nsaids or sulfonamides. Get help right away if you have swelling of the face or throat, or trouble breathing. Tell your doctor your medical history. And find an Arthritis Treatment for you. Visit celebrex. Com and ask your doctor about celebrex. For a body in motion. Welcome back. Just because two companies do virtually the same thing doesnt mean they will be virtually the same investment. Indeed. Our dominic chu and seema mody are looking at stocks that appear to be very similar but might not be from an investment standpoint. Dom, you are taking visa. Seema, you have mastercard. Why is visa the better bet . I think visa is a better bet but im going to be a gentleman and go ladies first. Thank you so much. Seema, you take the stage first. Lets talk about credit card companies. Their businesses sare so heavil tied to the economy. Transactions increase, thats a boon for these type of companies for mastercard, profits rose 3 . Analysts say when you sift through the tea leaves the numbers look encouraging. For example, processed transactions increased yearoveryear, cross border volume also up in january. Management also said that the u. S. Economy is showing forward momentum. Now, another reason to be bullish on mastercard is its buy back plan. It repurchased plenty shares in q4 and in january. It has 3. 3 billion left under the existing plan. It upped the dividend by 83 . You want a company thats submitted to its shareholders, this one is a name. I want to take a look at the chart of visa. First of all, over the course of the past year, its up 37 . Thats actually a slight underperformance to master cord, i will concede that, but just this year alone in 2014, that righthand side of the chart here, its actually just about flat on the year versus mastercard which is down. Visa has 127 billion market value. It is the 800 pound gorilla. It trades with a forward earnings multiple of 23 times earnings. Again, thats slightly less than mastercard. Also got 18 long term earnings growth. Thats a big deal as well. With the visa by the numbers, youre talking about investing in best of breed and the Biggest Company on the block. These guys are a tough, tough act to follow here. I see that, i can understand that. When i speak to analysts in terms of what factors that could help mastercard in the future, the real growth driver seems to be its expansion overseas. Citi, analysts write that a push into International Markets could help shares move higher. Theres cowan and co highlighting another opportunity and thats electronic payments. While most transactions are doing using cash, mastercards growing share of the electronic Payment Market will be a positive. Thats what cowan and co says. Visa is in all of those and on a bigger scale. Here is the bullish case for visa. If you look at the average target price is 257 bucks a share. Thats what wall street says 3 out of every 4 analysts has this stock rated a buy. That target price implies a 17 upside to just where visa stock is trading right now. Its no longterm debt on this Balance Sheet. That means its financially more stable. It doesnt have a lot of risks that having a leveraged and share buy backs. This is 5 billion and they have 4. 2 billion left on current authorization. 4. 2 billion, a little over 3 billion, they have a lot more. Compare dividends as well. Dividends are just about the same. Its a tough choice. We had to really struggle to come up with a bull bear case on this particular debate. Big debates going on in this newsroom. Admirably gone. I would have gone with see ma first as well but the script asked me to start with you. Com. I totally get it, bill. Good job. See you later. 30 minutes left in the trading session. The dow down 30 points. This would be the fifth consecutive down day for the average. First time weve seen that since may of 2012 and by the way, were down 2 on the dow this week. Same thing for the nasdaq. Crimea, the global economy, the missing Malaysia Airlines jet. The weekend is finally here but plenty of uncertainty is coming with it. Well talk to two pros next about how this could play out for your money. Later, ron insana writing a piece on cnbc. Com that makes the case that the u. S. Is shaping up to be the only super power on the planet. Ron will be here to tell us why so stick around for that. Ameriprise asked people a simple question can you keep your lifestyle in retirement . I dont want to think about the alternative. I dont even know how to answer that. I mean, no one knows how long their money is going to last. I try not to worry, but you worry. What happens when your paychecks stop . Because everyone has retirement questions. Ameriprise created the exclusive confident retirement approach. To get the real answers you need. Start building your confident retirement today. Heading towards the close, the markets starting to come back here. Wondering whether we have five consecutive down days for the dow. Hasnt happened in almost two years. But we may turn positive here. Im jinx ill jinx it as we head to the close. The dow down 19 points, was down 50 points at the low of the session. Nasdaq and the s p also coming back here. Warren buffett telling squawk box another financial crisis is in the future, its just a matter of when. It will happen again someday, but were not close to it, remotely close to it happening now. It wont happen in the same way. Humans will behave in crazy ways on the upside and downside in the next 50 years. Its very unlikely they do it in the next few years because after Something Like 2008, once they get out of the emergency room, theyre a little more careful for a while. Warren buffett and jack bogle are cut out of the same cloth. They think the same way. Is mr. Buffett right . Bringing in jim bee yjanko and diane swan. Diane, are we sowing the seeds of another financial crisis yet do you think, or are we still in the recovery mode from the previous one right now . I guess all of the above. I do worry about the Current Situation in we did reveal during the fed tapering talk that we actually saw we revealed some bubble that is were forming in emerging markets which is now even more of an issue with whats going on in russia and the reality of the emerging markets situation hitting home with china not doing as well and people not looking at the fundamentals of those economies and now they are but not enough. I do think i agree with Warren Buffett that humans are humans and you cant prevent bubbles, that will happen again. On the flip side, i am a little worried about the Current Situation maybe a little more than he is just because weve got a situation where any reaction we have from policymakers will be limited if it were to cascade and as weve already seen, frankly, the situation in crimea is really awful and it should affect the ukraine and russia more than anyone else and the rest of the world should be able to escape most of it, but that said it has had ripple effects and theyre there. Perception becomes reality really quickly. If you had to guess, its clear were in the middle of another credit boom, how do you guess this cycle plays out . Its hard to say how this cycle is going to play out but i think youre right we are in the middle of a credit boom. It might be a bubble. The one issue i would take with buffetts comment is we had a bubble in 2000 and we thought in 2002 that we wont have another one for another 50 years. It was three or four years later we had another one and were five years since the last one. And weve had many more in the last 20 years. He says they come a lot more frequently than buffett says. So, yeah, i am very worried about whats happening with the credit markets. I do worry they could get overdone, and that is probably the biggest point of concern. As he said, theyre different every time. It comes from a different point here, right, diane . We had something of a bubble in the 90s, the early 90s that led to a recession there, but in the emerging markets. Then it was the dotcom bubble, then the financial crisis. You could argue there were commodities in the middle of all of that somewhat related to what was happening on the credit side. Where do you think it comes from next time . Gosh, my biggest concern is Student Loans because the inability to restructure student debt, its the only credit thats rising into defaults and double digit pays. That understates the actual defaults on the Student Loans. Theres over a trillion of it from the federally guaranteed side. These are people who cannot buy homes. Home sales have been falling, existing home sales, instead of rising. This could undermine a whole path to wealth and saving we take away from a whole generation and the parents that have to house them now. Im worried on that side of it of what the ripple effects are for the current economy and potential growth going forward. Jim, if the fed, as worried as it is about tightening too quickly given past financial crises and their aftermath, et cetera, and yet all of these recent events that were discussing here, if the fed were to say were going to try to lean against and keep this from playing out again, do you think they would . When do you think they raise rates here . I think they only raise rates if they can get away with it. If anything looks the little bit problematic, i wouldnt be surprised if they pulled back on the taper later this year if things looked problematic. I think theyre a long way of raising rates. I think what theyre afraid of is the bubble question. If the fed were to taper too fast, if the fed were to raise rates too fast, what are they afraid of . The markets would respond badly because maybe theyre in a bubble state caused by fed policy, caused by easy fed policy. I dont think theyre going to be in any hurry to pull back on this anytime soon. They will only do it to the extent markets will allow them to do it, and so far they have been. Whats the lesson then from the last 25 years of policy . Im sorry . Whats the lesson from the last 25 years of fed policy . I dont think that theyve learned the lesson of the last 25 years of fed policy is to let markets correct, let markets self adjust. They constantly get in the way of that and they try to overmanage it. Yes, what they did was necessary in 2008 and 2009, but i dont think what theyre doing is necessary when you get to 2014 and 15. They should have exited a long time ago from these policies, so i dont think so theyre learning that lesson from the last 25 years. Let markets correct. Didiane, Alan Greenspan took knock for keeping rates low when he did and causing a real estate boom, a bubble of sorts. Is that happening again . We heard anecdotal evidence its happening big time in San Francisco where cash offers are being turned down because they werent high enough right now. We have a shortage of inventories. I dont think were in a real estate bubble. Im worried about the churn in the market. It is though becoming a very much affluent market. Whats interesting and whats troublesome is how much of the economy is pooling at the highest income left levels. The difference between new home prices and exists homes is as wide as it has been in history. Do you have markets like San Francisco and new york that may actually get a little bit of air taken out of their tires if you dont allow russians to buy some of the real estate theyre buying there because theres been a lot of foreigners buying up that real estate at the very high end. Guys, thank you. You know, its also telling about this market today, there are as many people waiting for that crash to get back involved with stokts, to get back involved with real estate. Interesting what psychology has begotten. Big waiting game. Were waiting to see how we finish this day as well. The dow has started to move back down again. 20 minutes left, were down 35 points as we head toward the close. Our thanks to jim and diane on that. Coming up, the latest developments in the search for the missing Malaysia Airlines plane. Suspicions are growing this was not an accident. So what happened . Well see if were any closer to some answers. Also ahead, the crisis at General Motors continues to deepen. New information coming to light that the auto giant decided nine years ago not to implement a 1 per car solution for those faulty ignition switches. Phil lebeau has the troubling story for us coming up. Dont miss it. In the new new yo we dont back down. We only know one direction up so were up early. Up late. Thinking up gamechanging ideas, like this dozens of tax free zones across new york state. Move here. Expand here. Or start a new business here. And pay no taxes for 10 years. With new jobs, new opportunities and a new tax free plan. Theres only one way for your business to go. Up. Find out if your business can qualify at startupny. Com no two people have the same financial goals. 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Low dues, great terms. Lets close new at t mobile share value plans our best value plans ever for business. Welcome back. Just more than 15 minutes to go before wall street calls it quits for the weekend and what is week its been. The dow needs to win this week to avoid finishing lower each day this week. Bob pisani is here at the new york stock exchange. We have Sheila Dharmarajan tracking the Market Action at the nasdaq. Bob, you kick it off. What is the mood on the floor as we head into the weekend and this referendum on crimea. The problem is Everybody Knows whats going to happen. What theyre concerned about is what the g7 might say on monday afternoon, and its not clear what the response is going to be. Look at the s p 500. We rallied in the middle of the day. Lavrov, the foreign minute of russia, said they had no plans to interfere in the Eastern Ukraine. That caused a little bit of a rally. Weve been dropping lower. Theres been substantial imbalances for sale going into the close. I think thats affecting a few things. Utilities, the whole week, guys, have been defensive and thats true today. Utilities and telecom are leading. Cyclicals on the downside. A lot of people have been talking about taking the air out of the momentum stock, your amazons, yelps, facebooks, zillow. Theyre not cracking, down a little bit, but nothing surprising. Finally one of the big ipos of the year, cast light, were talking about a company that helps Companies Control health care costs. 16 price, that opened at 37. 50. Thats the kind of line you want to see if youre an underwriter. Straight across 39. 398 39. 85, near the top. Cloud computing combined with health care. Its also what happens with a small float. You can come in with the secondary and make a killing. Sheila, biotech in particular really losing momentum here. So how does that connect back to what all the geo political events and turmoil weve been discussing . Biotech has been the spot of weakness. This is a rask off week. People arent feeling great about going into the weekend. Theyre going to pare back on some of the names. Here at the nasdaq we look to be closing at session lows right now. Were going to be posting a loss for the week and that would be breaking a fiveweek winning streak. A lot of people do have their eyes on that. They also do have their eyes on the sense this is really a broad based selloff were seeing. If you look at the nasdaq 100 for the entire week, about 90 of the names are in the red. So a lot of selling going on here. Like bob was saying, the classic momentum names, the tesla, pricelines down big on the week. Social media names also taking a hit. Biotech, again, this is a real point of weakness. Since hitting a high on february 25th this year, the index is down 7 . Definitely outpacing some of the other losses in the market. Today in particular we saw a lot of weakness from gilead and cell gene. Two biotech names have helped the nasdaq drive far their. Whenever you talk to traders about whats happening here at the nasdaq, they say these names, this index has run up so far. Sure, were seeing a little weakness, a little bit of these names crack, but, remember, were still well near that 13 1 2year high. These names havent fallen back all that much. Not really surprising the action were seeing here given Everything Else thats happening in the world. Biotech is a classic example of that. Yes, we are down from the highs. Yes, we are seeing some weakness in the past couple weeks, but yeartodate, biotech is still up 18 . So people not very panicked yet. Theres not that panicked selling going on. Lets a little bit of lets take some risk off the table. Sheila and bob thank you very much and have a great weekend. Now, we have 15 minutes as mentioned to go into the close. Were trying to make a little bit of a comeback but not quite happening. The dow is still off 33 and the nasdaq about 11. The s p about 5 points. When we come back, what you need to know ahead of this weekends crucial referendum in crimea and how that could affect wall street and your money, coming up next week. Stay tuned. Tuned. Does it end after youve expanded your business . After your companys gone public . And the capitals been invested . Or when your companys bought another . Is it over after youve given back . You never stop achieving. Thats why, at barclays, our ambition is to always realize yours. Save you fifteen percent or more on car insurance. D Everybody Knows that. Well, did you know pinocchio was a bad motivational speaker . I look around this room and i see nothing but untapped potential. You have potential. You have. Oh boy. Geico. Fifteen minutes could save you fifteen percent or more on car insurance. Salegets up to 795 highwayeals the passamiles per tank. Sel salesperson 2 actually, were throwing in a 1,000 fuel reward card. Weve never done that. Thats why theres never been a better time to buy a passat tdi clean diesel. Husband so its like two deals in one . Avo during the salesperson 2 first ever exactly. Volkswagen tdi clean diesel event, get a great deal on a passat tdi, that gets up to 795 highway miles per tank. And get a 1000 dollar fuel reward card. Its like two deals in one. Hurry in and get a 1,000 fuel reward card and 0. 9 apr for 60 months on tdi models. All right. Dow trying to avoid its first monday through friday fiveday losing streak since the last time it happened was may of 12. Dominic chu, whats in the wind right now as we head toward the close. So were going to start off with keurig green mountain. The stock is moving higher after signing a new deal with starbucks which will give up its exclusive license for keurigs highest end coffee packs. A very successful debut for castlight health. Valued at 3. 4 billion. Gravity taking hold of plug power. Its moving lower after doubling in price. Cowan down grades it to a market perform from an outperform. It said fiscal 2014 still has potential for the company. Fellow fuel cell makers fell in sympat sympathy. S sirius xm is announcing today its resuming its Stock Repurchase Program and reaffirmed its guidance. A nice day for the siri shares. Nine minutes to go. Joining us is david darst. Warren buffett says he wouldnt sell anything because of ukraine but somebody did this week. The market has act eed prett well all things considered. You have had some good developments. The jobs were better. Chicago purchasing well above 59. The ism, manufacturing and nonmanufacturing, are still above 50 evening wi with all th weather concerns. The big worry for me this week was china coming in with those low fixed asset investment, the retail sales, okay, the industrial production. China as weve discussed before is in the midst of a john acres giving the reins to gersner and he had to restructure ibm and it took a year or two. China is going to do that and they will come on gangbusters. Im hoping the markets action today, after todyesterdays selloff, had it been down, this would have been Something Big is going to happen geopolitically. Keep calm and carry on. We know thats generally the view. What changes your mind . What makes you more cautious . If there was bad news out of china. If the fed had to tighten, which we dont have to do. The big three things that can happen are an external shock, an internal imbalance, owe are a policy error. I dont see those right now on the horizon. You want to see earnings. The market went up 32 last year on an 8 rise in earnings. So you want to see the earnings start to come through. And instead weve had more than 100 companies in their preguidance for the First Quarter, its been negative. I know thats part of the game these days, but there are the earnings picture is not looking all that great here. This market and the economy will make up for it in length what it lacks in strength. I knew youd find a way to rhyme somewhere. The market the economy is the tough, 2 growth, but it will grow longer, and the party will get hotter from here. So youre going to want to edge out at that point. Stay right there. Were going to come back with a closing countdown. You will get ready for the next hour. I am. Good to see you, david. Good to see you, kelly. After the bell, information that General Motors made a business decision not to implement a 1 solution to fix those faulty ignition issues. I. So were up early. Up late. Thinking up gamechanging ideas, like this dozens of tax free zones across new york state. Move here. Expand here. Or start a new business here. And pay no taxes for 10 years. With new jobs, new opportunities and a new tax free plan. 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They bought treasuries and they bought them in fistfuls. Part of the week here. This is the tenyear yields. Remember, as the price goes up, the yield comes down, and the yield we put this in weird terms, but the yield came down 5 on the week. So a big move up for the tenyear treasury on heavy volume as the stock market was going lower. Ben willis, what happens monday. This crimean referendum is expected to pass. This market is trading on panic, npa fear, not panic, but fear. Gold saw a 3 increase and thats pure fear in the marketplace and i dont think that goes away. As a matter of fact, monday we will rattle our cage a little more with what the g7 is going to have to say in light of the crimea response. This is the kind of crisis you were talking about before that can affect a market. And you want to basically be prepared to add some money if there is a selloff, bill. We think next week we will get the industrial production, the philly fed, and the Empire State Manufacturing and the fed twoday meeting. So theres a lot going on next week, which i think can offset any worries, and if you have some good weathnumbers that sho that weather was a factor, you could be putting some money to work. Happy st. Patricks day to all the irish americans out there. Should be trading stocks, not the 345shmarket. Would you be among those buying if we get more of a dip this next i would be a stock buyer, not a stock market buyer. I would be selective in what im adding based on whats going on. Im hopeful this is the correction that will give us the opportunity to buy the stock market and stocks at a better price. And on the fed meeting, are you hoping and praying for a nonevent . This will be Janet Yellens first News Conference as fed chair as well or do you hope we hear some new information about what theyre thinking . If her testimony is any indication, theres not going to be anything to read because she doesnt like to speak. There wont be a whole lot in the minutes. My expectation is a continuation of the taper because theres not enough economic indications to do other than. Good time, good place to put some money into some health care stocks. Johnson johnson, fizz pfizer, abbott. Some defensive stocks that have lagged, the big tech moves. You think defensive is a place to be right now. Defensive is a place on any selloff. Utilities, look what they did this week. Weve forgotten about utilities right now. If im going to play an Interest Rate play, im more fond my friend across the street, eric hoffman, im more fond of the Partnership Group than i am of utilities. Youre right. Very good. Good to see you both. Thank you. Have a great weekend, and happy st. Paddys day when the time comes. So were going out. We will have five consecutive down days for the Dow Jones Industrial average for the first time in almost two years. What does that mean come monday . Well find out at that time. Meantime, stay tuned for the second hour of the closing bell with my coanchor, kelly evans. Have a good weekend. Thank you, bill. And welcome to the closing bell. Im kelly evans, and here is how were finishing the day on wall street. It is red arrows, a better day at least than yesterday, but this does mean the dow will be down for five consecutive trading sessions. Interesting to know that hasnt happened since may of 2012. The dow gave up 40 points, the nasdaq 15. The s p 5. Got to talk about that 1850 level. Todays panel, joining me now is kayla tausche, david seaberg, robert frank. David, what is running through your mind . I look at the market and i say going into a weekend on a friday sort of not being down big, given all the fear thats sort of been put in the system is a good thing. I will tell you there are underlying things that make me a little fearful that when we do, if we do have a pullback, it could be a little greater. I mean, part of that is just i think investors are much more apprehensively long right now than they have been in the past with little protection on. If news comes out thats not necessarily positive, it could take this market down in a pretty significant way given the fact that no one is protected. I like you said apprehensively long there. If you think through some of the terms people have used to describe this market up all the way up, fear of missing out there, is no alternative, weve called them fully invested bears, robert frank. Everyone has kind of hated it the way up and dragged higher. I dont know what that reveals more broadly to davids point. My concern this week and today is really china. I mean, crimea is a big concern, but lets not lose sight of china and its importance. This week we saw its the unknown unknowns in china we should be worried about. The idea that copper is a huge collateral there. Everyone talks about its great that the toxins are being leached from the system there, but there are so many unknowns in china, and the degree to which its slowing more than people expected, thats going to be a big weight on the market. Kayla, is it china or is it, for example, the guys over at bm o combing through the exposure u. S. Banks have to russia saying 10 billion at citi, 6. 7 at bank of america, 5 million at jpmorgan, less than a billion at wells. These figures arent massive. But this weekend is going to be so critical. Theyre not massive and, of course, thats just a percentage of their overall asset base. Citigroup has the biggest exposure. They have branches, a consumer unit. There could be a lot of fear in russia and people who are banking at citi, consumer loans, they have 6. 5 billion there. But its still a pretty small thing. The one thing im hearing the Bank Executives talk about is china. At this point a lot of people have wrapped their heads around the fact that china isnt growing as fast as we maybe thought, but the cover of the ft that talked about tpotentia defall, that could be a potential lehman moment. We dont know a lot of the figures associated with that system. Talk about complicating things, elon, for the Federal Reserve. As we look into next week, thats going to be the key event. Janet yellen, shes going to give a press conference for the first time. They have to grapple with maybe changing the way in which theyre going to exit should that day come with what kind of tools theyre going to use. Again, with whether the macro back drop has softened enough. The challenge for the fed will be to change their language without making the markets think theres actually a policy shift. Theyve already said that they believe markets are inline with what the fed is thinking in terms of potential liftoff in the second half of 2015 and i got to tell you the market may be over reacting to bad news but they also tend to ignore good news. Weve actually had a pretty good week of Economic Data. Consumer sentiment notwithstanding. Retail sales were up. I have to mention the bipartisan agreement in the senate over i was going to say jobless claims. Jobless claims potentially increasing. The white house has estimated the failure to extend the benefits could have cost 240,000 jobs this year. So the fact that we could get five months of reinstated benefits is definitely going to be a boon for the economy. David, whats so interesting is at the start of the week, bank of america talking about various scenarios, said weve seen the u. S. Data surprisingly weak for first couple months of the year. If this was a weather fa none na, you could get into a scenario where youre talking about the next move in yields higher. Is it all geopolitics. If we remove some concerns do, we have another speed up scare looming . Yeah. I absolutely think you can see a speed up scare happening. Theres no question. You know, from the standpoint of how it could affect the equity market though, its actually very telling. When you look at a lot of companies that cut costs so incredibly over the last year or so, they have cleaned house, made their Balance Sheets really work, and through the cost cutting they have shown aernt n earnings. If things dont progress the way were expecting it and we dont see that topline growth, look out. Thats the next thing. How long are we going to give these companies . Whats the leeway were giving them to show topline growth before we give up . Q2, q3 . The trading activity this week has made you a little more cautious. How much further could we go on the downside . Its based on the fact that back up. Im long term cautious on the market. I think things will ultimately pan out and be okay. Our pullbacks can be a lot greater this year just based on the fact were priced almost to perfection. Okay. If we do pull back, i could imagine easily another 5 pullback. You know, wouldnt be out of question at all. But, again, the fact that people arent protected right now, that theyre reluctantly long is going to put a little bit of wedge in this tape or pressure on this tape if we dont see things pick pup. But theyre continuing long because we saw fund flows the 12th straight week of net equity inflows. Theres continued momentum to go into stocks. 81 more companies in the First Quarter of this year cited the weather on their Conference Calls than last year. So the weather is a real phenomenon. You have to believe at least for First Quarter earnings thats going to be a pass for now. Once you get into the second quarter, thats when time will tell whether investors are still willing to put money to work in equities on a casebycase basis. I want to bring in steve grasso to the conversation, just off the floor. What do you make of the activity today . I think the last guest really hit it on the head. You really have to have the ability to stomach some risk to the downside here. In the last couple of months, kelly, i havent seen investors think about what it would be like to take it on the chin when the market really starts to selloff. This was the first week i actually felt some panic in the voices and not only the panic, but you started to hear guys saying, you know what . Lets step away on the buy side and see how it reacts without us. I have not seen that in months. Its always been that buy the dip mentality. Guys reaching for utilities. When was the last time you saw a guy reach for a utility stock . So obviously, you know, im long. Im not really talking my book so to speak but im long s. O. Ive been searching for yield. Other people are looking for that. Steve, let me say, if this is panic, then were pretty spoiled. Oh, definitely. When i say panic at 17 when you say panic, its all relative, right . Its like saying were having a selloff here and the market is off under a percent. So everything is on a relative basis, but easily we could check that 50day moving average of 1828. Easily we could check 1800 in the s p. Thats a nobrainer. Guys want to see how the market reacts without that buy the dip. Nobrainer . I dont know. I say nobrainer he says nobrainer and i agree with him. You have to understand, think about the short side of the market. No one is getting short this tape. Theyre concerned, but theyre not shorting the tape because every time they shorted it last year, they got burned. The market ripped in front of them and they had to chase and cover. You know, that mentality of like just being there long stocks and hoping that we continue, i think thats falling less and less in the mentality of an investor right now. The other source of support, a big source of support were going to see is as the rest of the world starts to crumble, a lot of that money will come here as a safe haven both into the dollar and into the stock market. No question. The u. S. Is such high ground right now, and its just going to get higher. Tough balance all these negatives against the fact that in an increasingly bad neighborhood, we are still the best house. You know, thats interesting actually because i had a conversation with someone the other day that is overseas that mentioned to me, theres a lot of other more compelling investments that are not in the u. S. Out there that hes interested in. Its a trust factor that he doesnt look at sort of deterring him from being there. Growth opportunities exist in other markets. They dont trust other markets right now so theyre coming here. And that again speaks to the reluctant nature of whats happening. Its interesting to look at silver and gold, too, right . If we look at those yeartodate, theyre up Something Like 13 and 8 respectively. People these really fell out of favor last year. A lot of portfolios, a lot of funds had to dump these assets and i wonder if its possible that they can really get a bid even as were talking about, for example, a china slowdown. Yeah. I mean, look, to be honest with you, i think that gold was way oversold. I think its come back here. Can they catch a bid . I think they can. I look at silver as being an interesting commodity. You know, can silver its used so much in so many different industries. Is it looked at as a currency . No, its looked at as a commodity. Gold is a currency and a commodity. The way you invest in those two is very different. Can i see them moving higher . I absolutely can. We have this debate on the desk of fast money all the time whether you should be in gold or whether you be in the miners, and we always talk about this. Im long gdx. When you look at how the miners bounce when we have hit a quote, unquote bottom, they outperform the metal 2 to 1. If you look at gld in the same time frame, its a very short time frame, its up 15 . Gdx up 34 . Wow. Go to the junior miners, theyre up over 50 . So you have to look at but it works both ways. Theres a lot of risk in these trades, steve. Totally a lot of risk, but thats why you dont just buy one miner. Thats the key. You have to buy that etf. If youre buying the miners, dont think youre going to be smarter than the herd and pick the one that doesnt go out of business. Catch steve and the fast money gang coming up at 5 00 p. M. Right here on cnbc. Straight ahead, another day, another black mark for General Motors. Its coming to light that a simple plastic part that would have gone a long way to fix the fatal ignition switch defect would have cost the company 1 per week and the Company Elected not to do it. And is america, speaking of this conversation, going to be the last super power standing . Ron insana burning up the cnbc. Com website all week making that case. Hes going to join us in a bit to tell us why america will be alone and why thats a good thing. Youre watching cnbc, first in business worldwide. Ss worldwide. Welcome back. Markets finishing lower for the fifth straight day. Joining me a bob pisani. No matter how you slice it, not a good week for stocks. Lets take a look at the major seconders. Weve been emphasizing this all week, its been a defensive play. Utilities, Consumer Staples held up better than the more cyclical groups. Financials and industrials. Panic . No, not yet. The volumes werent there indicating panic. The vix did spike up. Were at the highest levels in a month. Remember my rule of thumb, i dont pay a lot of tension to the vix until it gets over 20. We did see though in the fixed income markets, the tenyear started to weaken. In the middle of the week was close to 2. 8 . We could see ending at 2. 6 and change. That raised a few eyebrows. If youre an overseas investor, might be a little more panicked than in the United States because look at the s p 500 here. We might be down 2 , but china, brazil was also down, germany down 3 . Thats the worst in three months that weve seen, and japan down 6 . That was the worst performing bourse in asia. Theyre down 12 . The ipo business, were about to embark on a huge number of ipos. Several dozen tech ipos coming in the next few months. It started with castlight. Closed at 39. 80. This is what happens when you get the intersection of software as a service and health care. Big, big money involved in that. Again, you will see a lot of ipos in the next two months. A couple hot industries lately. Startling development in the General Motors ignition recall story. It seems there was an expensi expensive an inexpensive and easy fix that the company passed on. This involves the recall of 1. 6 million gm vehicles going back between 2003 and 2007 models. When they started to have some problems with accidents starting in 2005, court cases came up, and at that time these faulty ignition switches were linked to 31 crashes, 12 deaths. Analysts now estimate fixing this problem for General Motors will cost from 6 million to 8 million when it starts next month, but if you go back to 2005, Court Documents say that General Motors could have fixed the problem back then. In fact, one plaintiffs lawyer says gm could have fixed the problem with faulty keys for 1 per car. Listen to this exchange in a deposition of a gm Program Engineer asked about whether or not gm was considering business costs instead of other costs. It made a business decision not to fix this problem, and five months later sold her a vehicle with the problem, didnt it . Object to form, argumentat e argumentative, lack of foundation. You can answer. That is what happened, yes. A little hard to hear, but he says that is what happened when asked if it was a business decision that was made. As you take a look at shares of General Motors since its ipo, nbc reached out to General Motors and one Senior Executive told nbc we regret some of the decisions that were made back then, but this is at the heart of the recall crisis, whether or not General Motors waited way too long and could have resolved this problem much sooner for much lower cost, certainly financial costs, back in 20052006. Thanks very much and stay there if you will. I want to dig deeper into this with our panel and ask importantly how this could have happened. Corporate negligence, a dysfunctional corporate culture, Something Else, robert . Weve had these kind of conversations when it comes to the bank skcandals that weve seen. We know so little. They have an internal investigation, all these other investigations. I think its easy to look in hindsight and said we could have fixed this for 1. At the time they had no idea it would be the hundreds of deaths, 6 million to 8 million now. So we just dont have enough to know whether even at the time it would have made sense, not just from an this was such an inexpensive fix. 1 per car youre not talking about something thats really all that material. In other words, just from a risk reward point of view, wouldnt it have made sense . Its hard when you hear from the families of the victims. One of the first victims of this faulty ignition switch was from the washington area, and her family has told us at the Washington Post they cannot believe it has taken so long for this recall to happen. The victim i think who was a teenager at the time actually died in 2005. Here we are in 2014 just now talking about this. And a the problem still isnt fixed. Gm doesnt have the parts until april and now is offering a discount on a loaner and a 500 credit which when you think about the grand scheme of things is pretty small potatoes compared to how long this has actually been going on. I mean, i think a lot offy sis management and pr experts are going to be digging through this to figure out, if you are gm going forward, how do you deal with those consumers and how do you figure out exactly how to compensate them. Kelly go ahead, phil. I think one of the things you need to keep in mind is think about what General Motors was like back in 2005 and 2006. Now, this is not a justification for them making this decision, but at that time this was a company that was struggling to make money. I havent looked at what their financials were then, but those were in the years when they were losing tons of money, especially because they were spending so much on health care, and it was definitely run with the bottom line in mind. When you look at the vehicles that were put out at General Motors by General Motors at that time they were very unimpressive. It was a case of whats the best in terms of cost analysis. That doesnt justify the decision but thats the environment where General Motors was at that time. How do you put a cost analysis on the lives that were lost. I look at this as being an irresponsible situation in general. If im running a company like this and its a small fix and a cheap fix, im going to make the decision to fix it. Im not going to take chances. I think the fact you take a chance, what is that to say about the future . Whats that to say about Something Else that may come up that may be small that could have a bigger impact. Other question to you, phil, i know were at the early stages but how deep do you think it will go for gm in terms of a longterm credibility and Sales Problem when you look at the next two, three quarters of people lowering their estimates. What are going to be the dollar impact of this . Not yet, robert. Sad to say, a lot of people will sit there and say, well, thats it. Nobody is going to buy a gm car again. We heard the same thing when toyota was dealing with unintended acceleration. I cant tell you how many of my neighbors said im not but it did take them a while. They did lose share. But it started coming back, and we have found through the history of the auto industry, you go back to the ford pinto days, back to what happened with the explorer in 99 and 2000, over time you regain that trust. Now, a lot of people will sit there and say, thats the price you pay, a little bit of a hit in market share, but the general feeling im going to get on this is that General Motors will be fine, which is why investors, many of them, are sticking with the stock, guys. But, phil, how if you understand that this was clearly an issue that could have been prevented at such low cost, how do we make sure it doesnt happen again. Is it happening at some other car company in this country right now . Its easy to say it shouldnt happen again and you would think it would never happen again, but how many times have we seen this in the past, kelly . I hate to say this but it is a record that repeats itself. I know we can never totally eliminate it. We have previously discussed where nhtsa was in all of this and the extent to which they said the number of complaints they got didnt justify looking into it but is there some alternative, some option, some way of making sure in a situation like this theres at least more of a conversation about it . Im not sure theres a better system than the nhtsa system right now. Nhtsa is considered the best system in the world in terms of reporting defects and then having the government investigate them. I would say maybe you give more funding and more staffing to nhtsa. Nobody is going to be in favor of that. Im sure nhtsa will say that. Im not sure thats going to change anything. Phil, thank you for the perspective. Appreciate it, as General Motors shares lagging ford by 15 Percentage Points this year. Is fortress america the future for the u. S. . Ran insa ni will join us next to discuss. The search for the missing plane continues. Some new developments emerging indicating the plane may have been deliberately flown off course. Well have the latest. Were back in two. [ banker ] sydney needed some Financial Guidance so she could take her dream to the next level. So we talked about her options. Her valuable assets were staying. And selling her car wouldnt fly. We helped sydney manage her debt and prioritize her goals, so she could really turn up the volume on her dreams today. And tomorrow. So lets see what we can do about that. Remodel. Motorcycle. [ female announcer ] some questions take more than a bank. They take a banker. Make a my financial priorities appointment today. Because when people talk, great things happen. Make it happen with fidelity active trader pro. Its one more innovative reason serious investors are choosing fidelity. Call or click to open your fidelity account today. Welcome back. Forget china or new sovietstyle russia. My next guest says there will be only one super power in this world right now and thats the United States. Hes our own ron insana and he joins me now to explain why. Ron, its good to see you. You as well. Make your case. Its an economic super power. I think were already the lone military super power in large part, but i think when you look at whats been happening in the country over the last several years with the Energy Revolution, with manufacturing returning to the United States, and while thats not showing up in statistical data in terms of jobs, the plant and equipment are being built because of the Energy Competitiveness that the u. S. Is enjoying, a more Competitive Labor force, and the like, and were also seeing technological innovation happen at such a rapid pace that new businesses and industries are being created extraordinarily quickly, and i think when you look out three, five, and ten years, there really is no other country or group of countries thats doing what were doing in energy and manufacturing and technology at the pace at which were doing it. So i think were poised for whats likely to be an extended and rather prolonged and profound change in the economy even though most people, 57 think were in a recession, most people dont believe that to be the case. Well, and, ron, a couple years ago this would have sounded ludicrous. I think today theres a lot more acceptance of this notion than there certainly would have been in 2009 and 2010. Yeah, and im not sure how much acceptance there is, kelly. People are recognizing an Energy Revolution is under way. As i travel around the country and i do 45 dates a year, 35 are out of the new york city area, you go to harrisburg, pennsylvania, and there are copp copper tubing plants being built. Manufacturing is really picking up. We didnt get gutted in a day. It happened over a 40year period a thnd is going to take some time for the full effects to be felt. But i think the fed, number one, laid the groundwork for a recovery, and, two, the private sector has done such really remarkable things with technology and with energy that the u. S. Is becoming a haven in many ways when compared to the rest of the world. Lets get the panel in here as well. Kayla, your reaction. I have a question for ron because in reading the oped, its like ron and the open road for the last 18 months. The last five years actually. You mentioned harrisburg, pennsylvania. I know the recovery has been so spotty across the country. Im wondering where else you went and whether there are specific observations you made. Recovery isnt nearly as spotty city to city as some people would suggest. Miami, the 15year surplus of condominiums they had a few years ago have been bought up. Now theyre building another 13,000 condominiums. Vegas is back, Southern California is doing fine. Ohio, small towns doing well. There are places like buffalo, like milwaukee, like detroit that have had 40year structural issues where were not seeing great improvement. You look at new york city, boston, chicago, in many ways, there are a lot of things going on underneath the surface that arent in the stats that suggests this economy looks more like 1948 to 1968. Its also, robert, one way to think about everything thats happening with regard to the way the u. S. Is handling the situation in russia. The more there is turmoil overseas, the more that reinforces americas position as a sole super power. So whether its keeping iran from having regional hegemony over the middle east, whether its russia and whats happening in that part of the world or china, there is a certain interest the u. S. Has in keeping things somewhat, shall we say, in maintaining upheaval. And, ron, i love this piece. I told everyone to read it this week. When i look at the wealthy through my prism, you know, these are people who have the most disposable income around the world could put it anywhere they want, and so much of it is coming to the u. S. Not just in the stock market but in other assets. We are ignoring if we start to get too u. S. Centric 80 of the global economy. If you were to invest overseas right now, and i dont think you would say that anyone should have all their portfolio in the u. S. Pretty close. Arent there good values out there . This is so fashionable to just say the u. S. Is everything. There must be some overlooked pieces. I dont know quite how fashionable it is. I have been very u. S. Centric and increasingly so. I dont like emerging markets. China is a disaster waiting to happen. Their real growth is between 3 and 3. 5 . Nowhere near the stated rate or goal of 7. 5 . Russia, you dont want to put money there. Europe, obviously there are some specific investments that can do very well if youre in the distressed debt karch and ycamp invest through a hedge fund and their stock market still if 80 of the world doesnt look that great, how great can the case be for america . Im not in that camp that says were the cleanest shirt in the dirty laundry or the best house on a bad block. I think whats happening here is quite good. The more energy selfsufficient we become, the more manufacturing that takes place, the more high value added work that takes place here, were less dependent on other nations in a lot of ways and i think that make the u. S. Unique in that regard. We have domestic consumption of 70 of the economy. Thats the mirror image of what goes on in any other part of the world. Ju you can read the rest of rons piece online. The mystery thickens around the malaysian plane. Well have the very latest on this incredible story coming up. And secretary of state jon kerry at odds with his russian counterpart about the fate of the ukraine. Ill be joined by meet the press moderator David Gregory who has been following this story from washington. Stay tuned. Stay tuned. announcer scottrade knows our clients trade and invest their own way. With scottrades smart text, i can quickly understand my charts, and spend more time trading. Their quick trade bar lets my account follow me online so i can react in realtime. Plus, my local scottrade office is there to help. Because they know i dont trade like everybody. I trade like me. Im with scottrade. announcer ranked highest in Investor Satisfaction with selfdirected services by j. D. Power and associates. Its amanda. Hey sweetie. What . [phones rings] okay, ill send it. One hundred seventytwo dollars for a chemistry book, what is it, made of gold . Just use citi popmoney. Boom. Ah, shes feeling lucky. Hey sweetie. Cancun, yeah no, youll be spending spring break with your new chemistry book. With citi popmoney its easy to send money to just about anyone, anytime. Visit your local branch or citi. Com easierbanking to learn more. Welcome back. The hunt i still on for any sign of missing Malaysia Airlines flight 370. Keir simmons joins us from cue allah lumpur with the latest. The Briefing Held here today as they hold briefings every day on the disappearance of flight 370 took us closer to the possibility that the plane flew for many hours after it disappeared. That is clearly being investigated, searches are now under way in the indian ocean, and its clear that the authorities here are working with u. S. Authorities in trying to unravel exactly what happened. We spent the day looking at the various crew on board, the two pilot its and the copilot. There were 12 crew including the pilot and copilot and all of the passengers. All of those people will be screened and investigated by the inquiry. Back to you. Thats keir simmons with the latest. What to make of all this, were joined by greg feith a former nts b investigator. Greg, its great to have you back with us this week. Can you ever remember a case like this . This is unprecedented. With all the different information coming out every day, now were really down to theory du jour. It is just difficult as an accident investigator to get your arms around the fact that, you know, what we think is factual information steams eems change on a daily, if not hourly, basis. One consistency, it seems to be the case that this planes transponder was turned off. Is it true someone else most likely would have . Typically there is never a reason to turn off the transponder. You may have to recycle, it but there is no normal operating parameter you would ever turn off the transponder. Its evident that with the transponders going down and the a car system, the data system, there was human intervention. Somebody had to physically have turned those off. So lets take that there was human intervention here, something happened in the skies. Is there any plausible way in which this plane could have dropped out of the sky and not see debris on the oceans surface or have it turn up on la land . Even a controlled ditch, youre going to do damage to the airplane. There would definitely be physical evidence from the aircraft itself, especially if it broke up during the impact sequence. Somebody would find it. The question is where do they look for that kind of debris . Right, and is it possible we just vnd found it yet . Thats always possible, kelly, absolutely. The fact theyve expanded this search area, were now up to 35,000plus square miles, its a very daunting task. Theyre trying to use this new information that they got this generic information off the satellite for the a car system to try to focus that investigative process in that area where theyre looking, but, again, thats going to take possibly hours, days, weeks, months, were not sure. Greg, the conspiracy theories have everything to do with the Freescale Semiconductor employees who were on board and information they might have had to, you know, this plane would have been landed and perhaps will take off again at some future point and resurface. Is there anything out there that strikes you as plausible or does all of this just are we just simply in wait and see mode . I think really were in wait and see mode. To land this airplane, youd have to find a facility that could is capable of handling an airplane this large. If you intend to keep it intact and use it for some other purpose, you would have to be able to find a facility that could put on fuel, enough to go wherever your destination will be. You have all these people on board. You have to hide this airplane for at least some period of time until youre ready to do your thing. I just dont believe that there is anything like that in the world, and you cant land this airplane in the jungle and cover it up with tree branches. I mean, its just weve got so many different theories out there, and we really have to just try and wait and see where the search operation is going to take us. Hopefully we will find something. Right, and lastly, is there anything in the way its been reported that you think is off a bit . Do the facts as you understand them at least seem consistent with a sense of whats happened . Oh, kelly, i believe that, you know, after they started to really put out the information about the turn, that the military radar picked up. The fact that theyve expanded their search area to the west, as broad as it is now, they are all convinced that this airplane wasnt on a track to beijing, that there is probably nothing in the china sea, that, in fact, theyre looking in the indian ocean. With all of that in mind, they know something. We probably dont know all the information, but theyre looking in an area they believe is going to give them the best possible result as we know it now. Incredible. This story has transfixed the globe. Greg feith thank you for walking us through the latest. Youre welcome. The clock is ticking for crimea in the meantime. How will this shake out with russia and ukraine . Both u. S. And European Union leaders saying there will be consequences if russia annexes the region or pushes further into either ukraine. Met the press moderator David Gregory joins me after the break. And are you trying to streamline your spending . There is an app for that. 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Call 18886282419 to learn more. Tdd 18886282419 so you can take charge of your trading. Geico motorcycle. See how much you could save. Making moves that would put an adult in an emergency room. Yet all they really want to do is grow up. Its funny, everyone i know wishes they could go back and feel younger. Sound familiar . Then test drive one of these. Current nongm owners and lessees use your 1,500 allowance to lease the 2014 cadillac ats for around 359 a month with nothing due at signing. Welcome boack. All eyes on ukraine. It remains a flash bite for international diplomacy. Lets get to it with David Gregory from met the press. With no deal between the u. S. And russia and some strident remarks from secretary kerry. Some tough words about the military build up on the border ahead of this referendum in crimea. The fear is, is there an additional military buildup to push into Eastern Ukraine at a time when the ukrainians might feel the need to respond. This thing has gotten tough. It has the Administration Quite concerned namely because Vladimir Putin does not seem ton bending to some of this international pressure. You alluded to the fact that angela merkel, russias biggest trading partner in europe, has really ramped this up, speaking in germany yesterday making it clear there would be a big price to pay for russia economically. If theres a unified voice, its to say well punish russia economically in the west. Russias stock market already in dollar terms down 27 . Certainly sanctions would bite as well. Is there a sense that this is all about putting pressure on those closest to putin in order to make him change his mind . Well, yeah, and you have seen some conservatives who were critical of the administration saying lets be more specific. Lets have some real sanctions that bite. Lets target kremlinlinked companies. Lets start naming names of people that we would target. I think some of the reluctance, frankly, on the part of the administration is there are those in the United States in the Business Community who have real concerns about what their response would be from russia and its impact on our companies ability to do business in russia, which is significant. So youve seen this uncertainty rattling the stock market certainly, and it doesnt look like its going to abate anytime soon because the question becomes do we accept the status quo . You know this referendum is likely to go russias way. So if the United States doesnt recognize it, then what . Do you actually think theres a chance to reverse this invasion of crimea . And there appears to not be any way to reverse it. If you think about it from russias point of view, securing access to shipping lanes, for example, in the black sea, the baltic sea potentially being next. Its no wonder estonia is so concerned about this whole situation and what russias ambitions may be. At the same time for those traders here who are trying to say what if Eastern Ukraine is the next domino, to what extent can we really know and what does it really mean . I dont think by the way, the status quo is crimea being in russian hands. Its effectively in russian hands now and if a referendum makes that more formal, then effectively russia controls crimea. Its no longer part of the ukraine. So the question is to what extent does ukraine want to fight that . Physically fight it or oppose it even as it tries to remember, ukraine is bankrupt, needs money from the west, and wants to build up a fledgling democratic state, so it has a lot of priorities. Crimea is just one piece of that and a big piece. The rest of this is what is putin willing to risk . What does he feel the response would be. If there is a real economic bite to what hes done thus far, does that prevent him from going further . Does nato take a step and say there is a line you cannot cross or else nato will get more involved . Again, its a matter of what putin is prepared to do. Yeah, and, look, i know youre going to be talking with white house Senior Adviser i understand dan pfeifer this weekend and its not just the white house though. This is an issue that Congress Left without addressing. There were no sanctions, no aid approved to ukraine. Right, and this is about the amount of money thats in the International Monetary fund that could be used for actually helping ukraine, and some conservatives had a problem with some of that money being used in the way it was. It basically garbled this thing up. Theres no sanctions moving forward. Some of the real strident critics of the administration but who were supportive of the sanctions package like john mccain excoriating fellow republicans saying this is no way to act right now. It looks like it will come back after their week recess, but now congress is losing time standing up on the sanctions package on this. So, you know, this status quo remains, and it only moves into a worse direction with the troops amassing and this referendum on sunday. How much of a distraction, how much attention is the white house paying right now to whats happening with this missing malaysian jetliner . Its so intriguing and mysterious and horrible all at the same time, and you have investigators looking into this the human end of this, that this was deliberately caused as you were talking about just a couple minutes ago. Theyre obviously involved in trying to help the malaysians search for this as well as going through all of the investigation of the individuals who would be involved. You have to start investigating the passengers and whatnot and what links they may have. Incredible. This is mysterious for sure. David, thanks very much for your time this afternoon. Really appreciate it. Of course, be sure to tune in to meet the press this sunday. David will be sitting down with seen are white house adviser dan pfeiffer. Coming up, american stupidity and obamacare. The hot list right after this. [ girl ] my mom, she makes underwater fans that are powered by the moon. She can print amazing things, right from her computer. [ whirring ] [ train whistle blows ] she makes trains that are friends with trees. My mom works at ge. Welcome back. So, whats atop the hot list right now . Allen joins us. Kelly, every once in a while, one story or piece just stands out and dominates. Today, with a piece written by the executive producer of the kudlow report. Its called obamacare you cant fix stupid. He points out youre always going to have stupid people in population, people who dont eat right, dont exercise and not smart about their insurance needs, with obamacare, we have about 4 million signups already. The report says only 10 were uninsured before signing up. This is against the backdrop of 30 million or more people who were uninsured before obamacare, his argument is, you passed a law with an mandate forcing the responsible who are insured a anyway to make up for those irresponsible. This is an opinion piece. It has drawn fire all day long. Pro and con. It has nearly 3,000 comments on it. Its been picked up by a number of our partner sites. Great source of debate and some internal discussion about it, too. This is standout story. Allen, thank you very much, sir. Some thoughts from the panel here, some pretty controversial oped getting lots of reaction. I dont like namecalling. Well, i think one of the things thats clear this is adding another level of uncertainty to the business environment, to the economic environment and you saw the survey come out recently and it was down. Maybe this has something to do with it. We have been hearing a lot about what impact it can have on small businessing hiring. Is that what the piece, though, is about its basically saying that americans who make poor choices about their health are stupid . Theres a great line in the piece. Jake says youll have the responsible people in our economy and our culture subsidize the irresponsible people. Health care is so complicated. Look, i make bad decisions every day, i drink so das that are bad for my teeth. I eat candy thats bad for me. Youre healthy. But theres a level of understanding about the choices that we make that has nothing to do whats good or not good for you. This is part of a bigger process, this is a part of the socialistictype mentality that our government has taken on a roll. Its an issue. I believe in responsibility. Im a responsible person. I take responsibility for, you know, everything around me. I think that im making choices that are active choices to improve my quality of life. Youre going to have irresponsible people in the system when it comes to their health. Thats just how it is. Not everybody thinks about their health. It comes down to education a huge point of it. The piece is online. Im sure theres lots of interesting debate happening in the comments. Attention my len yals, cataloged in one place sound, the level money app does just that. Were going off wall street and talking to the cofounder, next, stay tuned. [ male announcer ] this is joe woods first day of work. And his new boss told him two things cook what you love, and save your money. Joe doesnt know it yet, but hell work his way up from busser to waiter to chef before opening a restaurant specializing in fish and game from the great northwest. Hell start investing early, hell find some good people to help guide him, and hell set money aside from his first day of work to his last, which isnt rocket science. Its just common sense. From td ameritrade. Welcome back. A goal managing all of your expenses in just one place and staying on budget. A new app is aiming to help people reach that goal. Its called level money and joining us to explain it is jake fuentes the ceo. What is level, how is it different . Its a financial gps designed for the my lillennials generati. Many people in our demographic, under a lot of pressure financially, we dont use traditional tools and we frankly dont have a whole lot of allies when it comes to the Financial Guidance, so we think of ourselves as the next generation financial tools. Okay, people basically feed all of your information into this. Would you feel okay giving that level of access to your accounts. Not necessarily, theres a lot that goes into it. Lot of Security Issues with your bank. If the banks that have a lot of resources on the tech side and connect it to your money peer to peer. We operate across a Broad Spectrum of different accounts. We connect all of your accounts into level and we also track credit card expenses when it happens. So, we think about money the way consumer thinks about money. Jake, we dont have much time, how much uptake are you seeing in the app so far . We have had an incredible response. We have been out in market, a billion dollars in consumer spending. Thanks very much. Well keep an eye on all of it. No substitute for financial planning. Mandy in for melissa. Well be talking about china fears, real signs of slowdown, what you do with your money when it comes to commodities. We got a topranked china analyst thats going to give us all of the skinny. Fast money starting right now. Were here. Were live from the nasdaq marketsite from new yorks times square. Im sitting in for melissa lee. We have our wonderful traders. And elon mufk making a direct swipe at