About how far weve come in a market for the s p 500 that has just about tripled. The dow jones not nearly as much, but still a huge move higher. The charts, this is in real tile. The dow industrials, yes, up 160 since that march 9th closing low. The s p 500, 193 , so yes, nearly a triple 676, that was the closing low price on the 9th, 666, the number of the beast, day low the day before. Nasdaq composite setting it up 267 . If you take a look at the next layer of the onion, where we saw the biggest winners and losers overall from a sector perspective, the retail stocks, consumer stocks, up 377 , and of course, we know over the last couple of years, with the sharp drop in Oil Prices Energy stocks have been the big lagguard, up but since marlowes in 2009. Put it in perspective, stock winners and losers. Delta airlines, 1,000 gain since then. Netflix yes, it was around, up 1667 . General growth properties, once a 38 sent stock, was thought to be going bankrupt. Up nearly 10,000 then. As for the lagguards again, its only at 42 since the lows. Eneterge, they didnt go for the defensive name and then trans ocean, down 77 since that. So again, just to put this in perspective guys, i remember the days when we saw stocks like under armor hit 3 a share, or starbucks hit 4 a share. Look where we are now. The vast majority of stocks to have bought that day would have been the trade of a lifetime. If we listened to mark haines, i know i didnt go career long at that point. Which is youre here. Were all still working. That was seven years ago today. What do you do now. Lets bring in ron and jeff of kkm financial. Ron, good to have you here. You know, intuitively, you want to say you go up every year, at win point, you cant go up every year, so you tend, just based on the numbers, you tend to get bearish, no . You get moves that, you know, if you net them out over 50 years, there is an average gain for the stock market. But listen, the easy money has been made. Ci citi group was so worried to buy it. Ge. My stomach turns at the thought of it. Everybodys did. Thats why it was the trade of a lifetime. That much fear, the stepping in at that juncture, as mark suggested. Not as much fear now. Not as many tail winds, and we may be well, with respect to where the fed is versus where they were. I was raising my eyebrows at the lack of fear in the market. Jeff, i dont know if you want to weigh in here, but in terms of fear in the market, isnt that youre seeing the bid to gold, isnt that why gold is in a bull market since the start of the year, utilities up, i mean, there is a certain level of fear still in the market as evidenced by wanting to be long defensive trades. Melissa, absolutely right. Once it was unleashed last august. Remember, folks, volatility goeks up and down. But to your point, melissa, we saw it above 26, just a couple of weeks ago. This bipolar market has gone completely the other way and seeing complacency back in. Im cautiously bullish, but a variety of reasons. It has to do a lot with the ecb. Mario came in disappointed. Will he be super mario tomorrow, i think he will. Is now the time to buy stocks. Also, good times to sell stocks. Is this one of those times . I think its a good time to buy some stocks. Were looking into the financial sector, absolutely crushed. Look at bank of america. Down 21 year to date. Hot money move this sector down. So i think there is a lot of opportunity, and i like it, yes, 40 lower from a year ago today, but i like these discounts, bargains, because you will see the financial prevail. On my long commute listening to fast money, you had a great guest. Joe, you called him the godfather. Granno. And he made the comment about buying private Equity Companies i believe. He would agree with jeff. Theoretically it would be a good time to pick through and value here. I would rather by private equity than private Equity Companies. Weve seen that time and time again, hedge funds that have gone public, deals out perform their stocks. True. But thats rare. I disagree, ron. Look at kqi, the last five years, even with the drop down, theyre up 16 . You have to let the pros go in there, the uncertainty out of washington, let them come in here and do the job for you is my thought. Youre rolling your eyes at financials over all. Mean reversion, this is one of those instances, no. Even if some of them are selling at 60 or 70 times book values, if interest goes up, its going to flatten, net, more difficult for banks to perform well. Listen, i think, you know, if anything, you go contrary on some trades, but longterm investor, youre buying all the names you love at cheaper prices. This is a traders market. Long short, swing trading, whatever makes sense. Thanks, guys, thanks jeff. The u. S. Government just borrowed some money. Lets get to ron. Ten years worth of money, right. Its kind of backtoback. We had 20 billion 9 year 11 securities. 20 billion in total. I gave the auction a d as in dog. Actually half a grade lower than yesterday. A time when there is fails in the repo market. The yield at action, depending on how sharp your pencil was, thats about a full basis point tail. It was around 188 trading in the one issue market. 249 on bid to cover since august of 13. Lowest since january 15, not that long ago. And on the directs, 11. 1, dealers take about 32. 4 of the action. And you know, whether its Central Banks, meaning or many that are looking to find some tens, looking secondary market. I cant answer the question why the demand has been running so poorly, but very important to Pay Attention to, especially tomorrow, with a dozen 30 years on the block. Brian, back to you. Rick, thank you, sir. Crude oil doing really well right now. Up 3. 5 . Were going to head back to the one town that maybe tells the oil story better than any other in america. It is not in texas. It is williston, North Carolina. We first visited there in october 2013, it has fallen, last year of december 2014, where it was by the way, minus 20 degrees during our first morning hit. It is expected to be 60 on thursday and friday. 80 degrees swinging temperature. Listen, were going there for one reason. A, we met a lot of nice people, see how theyre doing. But also, try to understand a little bit more about what is going on in america. I think the thing thats surprising, despite the fact that weve seen prices come down so much, Oil Production is still very high, and i want to go to wells and find out why are you still taking so much oil out of the ground. I want to go to the man camps and see if theyre equally staffed as during the boom. I dont want to give away everything, but i will say this. Some of them are not staffed at all. These were i met a guy ghost towns basically. December 14, whatever it was, met a guy who paid 600 a month for an unheated, unplumped gar range. Towed go to the bathroom outside. No heat, 600 a month. I have a feeling thats changed. Really nice people. Theyre sort of the epicenter. Boom and the bust, yeah. Looking forward to it. On deck, after a big drop, could this be the one group that really helps your money take off . Do you want to invest in transports . Plus, new polling indicates that a majority of americans have some pretty negative feelings in both parties 2016, shaping up to be no doubt the ugliest president ial race. What could possibly left to be said. You might be surprised. Debate coming up, watching cnbc. Were back after this. Anything worth pursuing hard work and a plan. At baird, we approach your Wealth Management strategy the same way to create a Financial Plan built to last from generation to generation. Well listen. Well talk. Well plan. Baird. Im in charge of it all. Business expenses, so ive been snapping photos of my receipts and keeping track of them in quickbooks. Now im on top of my expenses, and my bees. Best 68,000 employees ever. Thats how we own it. Welcome back to power lunch, transports have been out over the past month, but dow up 7. 3 . Can transports continue to trend higher or head south again. The bull is gene peroni, our bear fast money trader, brian kelly and managing. Gene, ill start with you. Do we need a bottom to be bullish transports . Well, i think that its important youre seeing a significant bottom, maybe a trading bottom, maybe something more significant. But with that, the transports have been coming along quite nicely on february 8th, we began to see them out perform the industrials on a year to year basis. Not a theory just yet because of last years sour performance. We have some pretty constructive elements here. Theyre providing a bullish under pinning for the market. What may be the beginning of a tradeable commodity space, what other factors are there . You could make the same case from the bounce in the financials, with the stabilization of oil, because of energy exposure. Plenty of other sectors have found what appears to be a bottom, how do you separate the real bounces, the investable bounces from just sort of a flash in the pan . Well, when the dow theory was created, it was called the rails, not the dow transports. Now the transports have a number of different subcategories. You want to Pay Attention to the rails, which have come up nicely from their lows and oil come up nicely. When we look at the stocks, though, in the transport index that are above moving average, the Number One Group is the airline group. That underscores maybe more Business Activity and also, probably more consumer confidence. Right. We see the truckers and Companies Like ups doing better. I think the the transports are indicating there is not going to be a recession. The economy is doing somewhat better than the overall market has been depicting. Brian, i want to get your take. I know youre bear on transports. You dont believe there is a bottom necessarily in km commodities. I would separate airlines from the transports. I mean, we were just talking about the fact that the rails might be separate. So but in general, talking about the transports, ill use the data that we saw today. Wholesale invento wholesale inventories tick up, thats due to the restocking, last quarter, we had a d stocking, inventories were down. Now weve restocked. But what concerned me about that number today is the inventory to sales ratio. That is increasing, and were at a level that we have not seen since 2008. So thats telling me that sales are not going, increasing as fast as inventory. So when i look forward, youre going to see inventory sitting on the shelf, discounts coming, that means youre going to put less things on trucks, on trains, and on planes. Is it a sell across the board in your view, brian. I mean, for me, top down macro guy, im going sell is the way to play this. Gene, im curious in the way that you invest in the transports, what will cause you to sort of pull in your bull horns on this sector so to speak . I mean, right now, oil has made a tremendous progress in the past month. If we see a pull back to what level, will you start getting more concerned about your bullish stance . Well, i think on the trading basis, if it broke below 30, that would be a psychological to grapple with. The Double Bottom we hit in west texas 26s probably a reliable bottom for the longer term. More upside than downside. All right, guys. Good discussion. Thank you, gene and brian. Still ahead on the seventh anniversary, what could keep the bull alive. Much more power lunch straight ahead. Youre an at t Small Business expert . Sure am. My staff could use your help staying in touch with customers. At t can help you stay connected. Am i seeing double . No maam. Our at t buy one get one free makes it easier for your staff to send appointment reminders to your customers. And share promotions on social media . You know it now im seeing dollar signs. You should probably get your eyes checked. Good one babe. Optometry humor. Right now get up to 650 in credits to help you switch to at t. Where selfproclaimed ofinancial superstars , pitch you investment opportunities. Ive got a fantastic deal for you gold with the right pool of investors, theres a lot of money to be made. But first, investors must ask the right questions and use the smartcheck challenge to make the right decisions. Youre not even registered; im done with you i can. I can. Savvy investors check their financial pros background by visiting smartcheck. Gov welcome back to power lunch. We are on the hunt for value on the seven anniversary of the bull run. So where should you be looking . Joining us, bob phillips at Spectrum Management group and. Guys, good to have you here. What do you think happens after the seven years of a bull market . Where do we go from here . Higher, lower, bob, or he thinks to think were going to be stuck in a trading range. I think were going to go high, but right now were in the trading range. The s p turned negative last fall, and it is still in the negative trend. Were in a range between 1820 on the downside and about 2022 on the high side. Without significant break out of that 2022 level, were going to browns around. This year is going to be extremely earnings dependant. What do you do in that situation, you have to be a stock picker if youre going to make money in a flat market . You do, michelle. Our clients are Business Owners and professionals that are strategically trying to build their financial future. Its been a difficult environment the last several years. We focus on High Quality Companies with good cash flow, growing cash flow and strong Balance Sheets. And if we can bring those to the table, you still have price volatility, but you get some Downside Protection and you are gating a decent dividend hopefully. Specific names in a secretary, but ross, let me go to you first. What do you think happens from here. Higher, lower, stuck in a range . Well, considering the election process that were going through right now, its going to be really hard for stocks to really get that bull wind behind it. But i look at this as a corrective year. We have a massive shift in wealth and flows of capital due to the decline in oil prices, which ultimately is very positive for this country. So we love what is happening right now, because were able to position in the companies that we really like, thinking out to 2017, as longterm investors, we really like the opportunities in the market today. So when you look out past the election, we see the bull market resuming and being very strong, because the underlying u. S. Economy continues to do well. Regardless of who wins . Well, i think there is positives and negatives to both potential people, as winners, because i think donald trump is full of it. I dont think he is really this right wing. He is really a democratic. So well see what happens if he wins. I think the second thing is i think hillary is the better choice for the economy and the markets longer term. Okay, so bob, let me go back to you. Cisco and t. J. Max were the stocks we were showing people that you like. How do they fit into your criteria, strong Balance Sheet and good cash flow. They meet the criterias, michelle. Cisco in particular, you know, its trading about 12 times forward earnings, a cash flow generating machine. Paying 3 dividend. Been aggressively buying back their stock the last several years. Theyre right in the middle, so there is a longterm trend that favors them, i think substantially. So i think its a company that you can look at and five years the dividend will be higher. T. J. Max, one of the largest discount ter discounte discounters, and what we like about them, going back to 1996, they have not saturated the market with stores. They have more stores to build out. Theyre building their online presence. Quality company, quality Balance Sheet. Extremely well run. You can count on higher stock prices as time goes on. Okay. Their market. Ross, i see a lot of check on your list here. Facebook and netflix and also, apple, which you qualify as a value play at this point. Yeah, its probably the greatest value stock ive ever seen with 200 plus billion on the books and also seven pe. So many people counting the company out. Apple has its challenges in front of it, but i think theyre going provide some solutions this next week as well. But facebook is killing it right now. Its a wonderful company, and a great business. Theyre growing on every level and a real lot of ad spending going on with the political process going on. We think theyre wonderfully positioned as well. You know, there is a lot of opportunities in the markets right now if you think longer term. Of course, there is risks with every security, but you know, youve got to think longterm. I think there is value out there. Over the longterm, it usually works out. Bob and ross, thanks so much. Go to power lunch. Cnbc. Com at you see there on the full screen. More on the run for the white house and some poisonous politics. Most negative president ial campaign ever . How low can it go . Well be right back. My mom loves giving me advice. She even gives me advice. About my toothpaste and mouthwash. But shes a dentist so. I kind of have to listen. She said jen, go pro with crest prohealth advanced. Advance to healthier gums. And stronger teeth from day one. Using crest toothpaste and mouthwash makes my. Whole mouth feel awesome. And my teeth are stronger too. Crestpro health advanced. Is superior to colgate total. In these 5 areas dentists check. This check up . So good. Go pro with crest prohealth advanced. Moms right. Again navigating todays business landscape. Cisco and papal cfos global challenges and their strategies for the future. Squawk box, tomorrow. Update by comcast business, built for business. Hello everybody. Welcome back to power lunch, here is your cnbc news update this hour. The director of the board of health in massachusetts says one employee at the closed chipotle restaurant had a confirmed case of noro virus and two more employees may have it. The restaurant has been cleaned and expected to open tomorrow. Speaking at the start of an antidoping conference in london, former antidoping president dick pound criticizing Maria Sharapova criticisms. She has to know whatever he or she is taking is not on the list. It was willful negligence to miss that. According to a new report by credit card. Com, most people asked for a late fee waiver or Interest Rate dedeks greduction. Analysts say the credit card market is so competitive, sho s issuers usually do say yes. Spom band in indonesia were positioned perfectly, millions more in australia saw a partial eclipse. Thats the update this hour. Lets go back to you, melissa. Gold prices closing right now. Gold dropping about 5 or a loss of 4tenth of 1 . Taking a check on the rest of the medals. Played yum as well as silver are all to the negative, brian. Two big headlines military activity to tell you about. First, american troops conducting live fire drills near the border with north korea. The u. S. And south Korea Holding large scale military exercises for its part. Nor korea has threatened to respond to the drills with an all off offensive. Elsewhere, for the second straight day, iran testing longrange Ballistic Missiles. They say theyre designed to hit israel, and on the missiles them self, iran wrote, quote, israel should be wiped from the pages of history. Meantime, a new wall strewt journal poll dissatisfaction on the right and left. Get this. 66 of registered voters said they cant see themselves for donald trump. But they also say they cant imagine themselves voting for Hillary Clinton. Consider that, america. The two leading candidates for the partys nominations are largely disliked by a majority of the country. Bernie sanders surprising win in michigan last night, what could possibly be next . Apparently much more. Keith boykin is a democratic strategist, sara fagen, and former aid to george w. Bush. Keith, i think michelle said it best earlier. How low can this go . Were breaking out steaks, hurling out insults. Hillary clinton may have to go further to the left than she may like to get the sanders supporters. Where are we headed with this . Well, we havent gotten to a penis measuring contest in the democratic side. Thats next. Bernie would win that one against hillary. Im pretty sure he would. This is a reflection of how low donald trump has dug us into this race, you know. I dont think that the American People want this. I think its entertaining for people, but its actually very sad for our democracy. We go into the fall election, assuming its a clinton versus trump race, donald trump has a lot of baggage and Hillary Clinton has baggage too. But donald trump is not taken seriously as a potential president. I know, keith, you talk about it being sad that, and i dont want to disparage any of the candidates here, because they all care, i imagine, because theyve opened their lives to this process. But does this also Say Something about america in a sense that perhaps we are not getting more palatable candidates in the sense that if the polls say 60 dont like somebody, would why do we have that person. Theyre palable candidates ut there, but john kasich would be considered in the traditional norm or mainstream of republican candidates. He is doing relatively well in a few states. But its not what the base wants. The Republican Party is very angry. They want someone who is angry, like donald trump or both faces are quite angry. I disagree. If you look at the polls, im not sure if that was michelle or melissa speaking. The polls, the Democratic Party voters are much more satisfied with their candidates than republicans are. Keith, that was the point of the conversation and sarah, both candidates have extremely high negatives. Ever a point where a leading democratic contender and for now, the republican contender have extremely high negatives on both sides. I dont think that weve seen them as negative as they are today, however, you know, they are both in bruising primary contests right now. Its not unusual for candidates in this situation to see a hit in their factorability. I would expect eventually, assuming Hillary Clinton is the democratic nominee, she will get a bit of a bump out of having secured the nomination, as would the republican. I will say this about donald trump. I know that everyone is writing his inevitable nomination, but it still takes 1237 delegates, 1,237 delegates to secure the nomination, and increasingly, you know there is math to suggest that he may not be able to get there. I dont believe that if we were in an open convention situation, even if he had the most delegates, that he would ultimately win the republican nomination. I dont think that is over yet. But thats a disaster for the Republican Party going to a brokered convention, having half the party or potential he it is not any better to be unified. It would be better to be unified. Thats not the situation we are in. And i would remind everyone that the reason Hillary Clinton is unfavorable ratings are as high as they are, the majority of the country doesnt see her as honest and trustworthy. They will become very high hurdles to overcome in an election. Sarah, im sure you guys are dialed in the political scene much more than i am. This is what im hearing, conservative friends, im not going to ask them who theyre voting for, ive gotten a lot of friends who say i normally vote republican, but im going to vote for Hillary Clinton this time, because at least i understand what she stands for. Have you heard that . I think that switching teams because they want the consistency of message . I think that is a logical talking point today in the face of a tough primary contest, where donald trump looks like he is the nominee. And i think Hillary Clinton would pull republican votes if trump is the nomination. I dont think trump is good for the Republican Party. I would just submit to you, i think this is a still long way away. But sarah, wouldnt you admit if donald trump were the republican candidate, he would pull democratic voters, union workers. Thats an excellent point. He would pull in many Blue Collar Workers in the rust belt. So states like pennsylvania and wisconsin, that have been difficult for republicans in general elections and president ial years, i think would become in play again and put new possibilities for the Republican Party to secure enough electoral votes to win the presidency. The Chicago Tribune has endorsed marco rubio in the 2016 president ial campaign. Not going to do much good unfortunate unfortunately. Im wondering myself. Keith, on the other side, are you surprised that a gentleman, senator sanders, who is proposing by the tax policy or tax box accounts the largest tax increase in the history of peace time america, that includes tax hikes on the medical class, who sanders disputes their findings, either way it would increase taxes, are you surprised that a gentleman proposing that won in michigan last night . Well, i dont know if b the characterization you put on sanders, but i am surprised that he is doing as well as he is. I mean, its a reflection of how much the Democratic Party is changing. Its also reflection of how young people are changing the party. Millennias in particular are far more progressives than the older democrats. Theyre having an enormous impact on the direction of the party. Its also having an impact of the country at large. Number of issues, candidate who a socialist like marriage ae quality, where the country is just shifting dramatically to the left. Far more so than most people would have expected eight years ago. I want to be clear, too. My characterization of the taxes comes from politico and Tax Policy Center and tax box and cnn. Taxes are so complicated, its hard to make a general statement and be true for everybody. Im trying to capture the meaning, rather than the actual details here. Taxes, keith, used to be the third rail of politics, unless you used the word cut in front them. Well, yeah, but even a slight increase doesnt seem to be scaring people off this time. What Bernie Sanders is proposing is not just about cutting raising taxes. Its about raising taxes for the purpose of helping the people who havent benefitted from the economy over the past 10 or 20 years. Talking about middle class, working class people would have been putting in their hours every year and they havent been reaping the benefits like the upper income people have. Which is the reason you see the stock market has more than doubled during the Clinton Obama administration, but the working american, the wages havent increased as much. Thats a part of the reflection what Bernie Sanders is articulating. People are resonating with that message. What has been so interesting about this cycle is if you look at what donald trump says and what Bernie Sanders says, they arrive at the same place through different means. They say the system is rigged. Youre getting hosed. Im going to make someone else pay for it and solve our problems. Donald trump goes after china and mexico. Bernie sanders goes after wall street. There is a lot of similarity, more similarity between those voters than people realize, and i think its why you the rules are being rewritten as we we go through the process. Particularly if one of these two men is a nominee, thats quite different than anything weve ever seen. That is for sure. Thank you, guys. Thanks, keith, thanks sarah. Thanks, melissa. Sanders trump ticket. No. The voices. Were going to show you some new companies hopefully changing the market. A startup reinventing the shower. We pulled in technology from rocket engines and agriculture. A steam shower and will the founder make a splash. I was surprised at the pricing. Are you really more leading off with a socially conscience Water Company or a luxury premium bathroom brand. Stay tuned to find out. At mfs investment management, we believe in the power of active management. By debating our research to find the best investments. By looking at global and local insights to benefit from different points of view. And by consistently breaking apart risk to focus on longterm value. We actively manage with expertise and conviction. So you can invest with more certainty. Mfs. Thats the power of active management. Welcome back to power lunch, im michelle. Amc entertain, thats because middleman brothers, the largest shareholder said it would vote against the deal and encourage other shareholders to oppose it as well. Ubs has downgraded to neutral. The website operator has lagged user growth, Product Innovation and also, technology investments. Carl icahn cut his stake in Hardware Company mentor gaff graphics for the second time in a week. Off 2. 5 . Power pitch, big idea to a panel of experts. My name is phillip winter, co founder and cne of nebia. Beautiful design, 70 water savings. Millions of tiny droplets, we pulled in technology from rocket engin engines. Experience people have raved about. Halfway between a steam shower and regular shower. Showers are a vital part of peoples rituals. There hasnt been any meaningful innovation. People rarely know what brand to have. The market is vast. Over 50 Million Units sold in the u. S. Every year. In testing, the roi is astounding, for the past year, weve been doing tests with google, apple and stanford, with thousands of showers taken. Longterm, our vision is to change how people think about water in their daily lives and creating water. Welcome, we saw his pitch so lets meet the panel. Alicia, advise z as and invests. Nir, the early stage Lifestyle Brands and consumer tech. The bay area, david wu, a bc firm focusesing on under management. David has more than 30 startups in his personal portfolio. So phillip is in the hot seat. Great deliver eon ty on the. Major milestones. I would have liked to hear about leadership backgrounds and pricing, but ill stiff you a b plus. I saw you had a really successful kick starter campaign, great marketing for you too. What do you do on the marketing from this point forward to get the word out. Sold over 12,000 units so far, the idea is to have a really strong connection with other people from the boxes experience to the installation and have them really sort of be our biggest brand promoters. I give your pitch an a. The delivery was strong. Nice skrob about talking about the product disruption and social mission of water conservation. You mentioned building it into an aspirational brand. Consumers who can afford it like a 400 shower head, the con supers that need a reduction in their water bill. We realize its out of reach for most people. But when you look at the number, the pay back is between a year and two years. Most showers dont have an roi like that. Its a worthwhile up front investment. The idea is to drive down cost. You did a nice job talking about the product in the market, but i would also like to hear more about the background of the team. And the business itself. So im going to give the pitch a b plus. When you think about your go to market strategy, its more about going directly after the consumer, or more about going after luxury high end home builde builders. Both. The market for consumers far bigger. 30 million homes in the u. S. We want to create a consumer demands, but hotels and gyms are the best way to get people to try it. Youve got some pretty Big Investments already. Tim cook, eric smith for instance, do they use it. They have used it, yeah. If anybody wonders what tim uses in his shower, now you know. Long hair, rinse the product out of their hair, its a mist based shower, how are you going to concerns rinsing their hair. Weve had 700 people get naked, the prototype is the long or currently hair. Im happy to say no problem right now. I heard people saying they were sticker shocked by the high price point at first. How much does it cost you to make the device and what are your plans and how much do you think you can reduce it. 50 of the retail price to manufacturer. We feel we could bring it down over time. Its a premium material and nossle technology. We want to know if the panel is in or out, alicia, what do you say. Initially i was pretty surprised at the pricing, and i also thought it was an incredible amount around a shower head. With that said, so much to love about this. I love the design, the technology, innovation, and more importantly, theyve dem strapted a lot of consumer demand with a killer kick starter campaign. So i will go in. I really like businesses with a social mission, and they have a great Product Design and Disruptive Technology to boot. At 399, a bit expensive, but it is right for disruption. These guys may have the technology to do it. Im in. David, a clean sweep . I really like the product. I really like the social conscience mission, but i would like to see him make the tough decisions earlier in the process, whether youre going b to b, direct to consumer, lead with the social conscience mission around the brand or premium products. So for now, im going to be out. But i expect great things from this company. All right, two ins and one out. Phillip what, is your reaction . Thrilled. We appreciate your support. Happy to have you in. And david, were in San Francisco, maybe we can convince you with a shower. Sounds like a date. Thanks to the panelists, and that is todays power pitch. Okay, so we heard what the panel had to say. Are you in or out, tweet us powerpitch, power lunch cnbc. Com. Fed meeting, what to expect nextly one week from today. Must see video as wicked weather rolls parts of the south. Power lunch will be right back. Trend tracker live data board brought to you by the cme group. Hey, jesse. Who are you . Im vern, the orange money retirement rabbit from voya. Orange money represents the money you put away for retirement. Over time, your money could multiply. Hello, all of you. Get organized at voya. Com. Perfect driving record. Perfect. No tickets. No accidents. That is until one of you clips a food truck, ruining your perfect record. Yup. Now, you would think your Insurance Company would cut you some slack, right . No. Your insurance rates go through the roof. Your perfect record doesnt get you anything. Anything. Perfect for drivers with accident forgiveness, Liberty Mutual wont raise your rates due to your first accident. And if you do have an accident, our claim centers are available to assist you 24 7. For a free quote, call Liberty Mutual at switch to Liberty Mutual and you could save up to 509 call today at see Car Insurance in a whole new light. Liberty mutual insurance. With extraordinary offersmance on the exhilarating is. The thrilling gs. And the powerful rc coupe. This is the pursuit of perfection. All right, welcome back. Treasury bonds under pressure following the lousy ten year action. Lets get back to rick with the bond report. How lousy was it, rick . Yeah, it was pretty lousy, especially when you contract dynamics. A lot of repo fails, People Holding it, theyre not going to let it go. When you take the penalty of nine minus 3 ners a , youre li holding a 6 coupon. So theyre not letting it go. The people who want to short it need to find it in the repo and the action didnt find redemand. They are knocking at 189. Opened up to one year, you could see 190 on the left side. Its going to be good onward resistance. Two days of booms. I hate to use percentages, but im going to. Thats a 50 move. Look at 24 hour of 30 year japanese bonds. Would you, they move from 47 to 52. A 53 move. Were talking about in 24 hours. Look at a two day dollar index, but maybe in front of the meetings of all the Central Banks facing us over the next week it, couldnt get its leg back, basically lateral. Rick thank you very much. Were going to watch the market. Meantime, up next, a new face in loans. You need money, there is a new way to do it. Well tell you how and with who. Coming up. Stick around. Here at td ameritrade, they work hard. Wow, that was random. Random . No. Its all about understanding patterns. Like the mail guy at 3 12pm every day or jerry getting dumped every third tuesday. Jerry every third tuesday. We have Pattern Recognition Technology on any chart plus over 300 customizable studies to help you anticipate potential price movement. Theres no way to predict that. Td ameritrade. Hiim here to tell homeowners that are sixtytwo and older about a great way to live a better retirement. Its called a reverse mortgage. Call right now to receive your free dvd and booklet with no obligation. It answers questions like. How a reverse mortgage works, how much you qualify for, the ways to receive your money. And more. Plus, when you call now, youll get this magnifier with led light absolutely free when you call the experts at one reverse mortgage today, youll learn the benefits of a governmentinsured reverse mortgage. It will eliminate your monthly mortgage payments and give you taxfree cash from the equity in your home and heres the best part. You still own your home. Take control of your retirement today in new york state, we believe tomorrow starts today. All across the state, the economy is growing, with creative new business incentives, and the lowest taxes in decades, attracting the talent and companies of tomorrow. Like in buffalo, where the largest solar gigafactory in the western hemisphere will soon energize the world. And in syracuse, where imagination is in production. Let us help grow your companys tomorrow today at business. Ny. Gov well, for most of recent history, if you wanted to borrow money, you had a few options, number one, rich up your rich, creepy uncle who will turn you down any way. Go to a bank, mr. Potter, or three, refinance your home. Thats all changing, as the personal loan market tries to get more personal. Lets bring in anthony, loan depot, the second biggest nonbank consumer lender. What does that mean . Were not a traditional depos tor depository. So you do home equity, correct, like if ive got equity in my home, i can refi, but youre also doing these personal loans. How would i get one . Because were coming out of a tough, you know, cycle as far as home equity, some consumers have great credit but lack the equity. Or the will. Or afraid. They dont have a week to fill out 700 documents. You know, that makes a big difference. You can get a personal loan in loan depot. Com in about three to four days. The type of experience is completely digital, the mortgage industry is still, you know, sort of operating in the same manner it has in 30 years. Im getting a lot of mailers, lending tree, either asking plea if i want to borrow money or if i would like to give money into the borrowing pool. Do you compete directly with them. We do, we do. The difference with our platform is were not a mono line lender. Cash out, personal loans, so it gives the consumer a lot more variety. I would fund your loan theoretically, right, some guy in america is funding some other guy . Is it peer to peer with you as well . No. We are institutional, so i think youre talking about lending club, and most of the lending club, not lending tree. Thank you. Right. Most of the liquidity going through the p and p, p to p type of platforms, the majority is still not coming from private investors, its still coming from institutionals. Why is it so hard to get an equity line these days. Because were in the world of crisis. We have cfmb, quite a lot of regulation. Just a lot easier if lending is done outside of mortgage lending. However, youre going to see that start to switchback in, mortgage lend something down to 1. 5 trillion a year. That sounds like a lot of money. It was 3. 10 years ago. The Mortgage Market has been cut in half. We dont want to go back to the levels of 2006, because they were taking out mortgages for 10 million condominiums. We dont want to go back to that, because the home market this year is supported by fannie, freddie, to ensure a healthy, not only credit, but housing market. Okay, good. So the headline, you were going to go public last year, you shelved it, are you going to go public . Thats an option for us. Youre obviously interested. You would not have applied to go public prior. I think at some point, thats a trigger that were going to, you know, actually pull. But for now, were having a good time not getting on the quarterly treadmill and you know, well see what next year brings to us. If you do do that, well look forward to seeing you on cnbc for squawk on the street if you decide to do it. Anthony. Lets head into the 2 00 hour right now. Dow jones is higher by 38 points, quarter of a percent. Just above the 17,000. Nasdaq higher. And the s p 500 up by nearly 10, but still below the 2,000 level. 1988. Big part of the dows gain coming fr coming from chevron, the price of oil. So nextly one week from this very moment, were going to get the feds next big decision on Interest Rates. Are they going to stay put or raise rates again . Were joined by two investment experts who have different answers to that question. Lets bring rob morgan, chief Investment Officer and tom hanlin, private capital at u. S. Bank. Rob, im going to start with you, youre pretty convinced that rate hike is on the table for march, and could very well happen, right . I am, michelle, yeah. I think the friday jobs report just confirmed that the market is on track for full employment, and fed is going to be meeting its dual mandate. Plus they need ammunition to fight the next recession. The majority of the members of the fed realize this, plus theyve already said theyre going to raise rates four times this year. Im not sure theyll do that but if thats the case, march is in play. You realize it was only yesterday that fed funds finally 100 , there would be one rate hike this year by december. Absolutely. No, i agree. The market is saying one this year, and im not saying the fed is going to raise rates four times this year, but to maintain their credibility, they better do something in march. Tom, what do you think . You obviously think theyre not going to do something in march, thats why you have on the other side. We think theyre going raise rates in 2016, just not at the next meeting. We have the ecb tomorrow and we think theyre going to wait. See sooe what the ecb does, we think they want to raise rates two to three times, but just not at the march meeting. What about rob was talking about, the employment report, which was pretty strong and finally gotten inflation. No disagreement. Consumer confidence is still high, but you can see that globally, risk intentions are still out there. We saw what happened when the feds raised rates in 2015, and we think theyre going to want to go slowly, especially what the ecb is going to do. As michelle points out, clearly the contrarian belief out there, youre right on the money, you could be poised to make some descent money. For a longterm investor michelle hike, we basically advised clients to trim back on their Equity Holdings and also to rotate into a more defensive sectors. Because you know, the stock market isnt going to go into a bear market immediately, but at some point, the fed rate Hike Campaign is going to push us in into a recession. Hopefully not until next year. Why, tom, do we seem to on so afraid of fed rate hikes . I know weve got the recent bias from last year and everything got shaken up. In 1994, the Federal Reserve raised rights by i think 2 . An incredibly aggressive campaign. The only thing the dow did in 1995 was jump 34 . Why do we treat fed hikes as poison ivy. I think because it comes back to the dollar. So youre right, the feds raised rates, but if they do it too aggressively, theyre going to push up capital and make a return on the capital. Push the dollar too high, bring risk assets down, volatility up. So the fed is looking at that saying we have to consider our context, relative to what is happening globally. Why are we stuck so worried about the dollar and everything else, because maybe has the world stupidly gotten itself caught in a fed trap where they cant do anything, theyre going to destroy the credit markets, because everybody is set up in a way where we cant do it and the fed is not irrelevant, but stuck. Right, well theyre cutting a feedback loop, because the dollar is a reserve currency, a lot of em debt is denominated in, so that swing is important globally, so the volume stilly comes back on the fed and comes back on the relatively fed versus japan rates. Were going to find out tomorrow, i mean a week from now. Sounds good to me. Rob, and tom with private capital. You could never have a decent. That would be bad. Thanks. Domdominic. Shares of fox surging ahead of the Fourth Quarter after todays closing bell. On average, earnings per share of 0. 29 of revenues of 82 million. Come pl commentary, health of it spending, progress of stock. Descend of 45 of january 2015 ipo price, off by about 10 year to date. So another cloud stock, brian, in focus for traders. Back over to you. Dominic, thank you very much. I want to show you some live video from the Reagan Library in simi valley, california. Thats the casket carrying nancy reagan. She will lie in repose from 1 00 to 7 00 and 10 00 a. M. To 2 00 p. M. Tomorrow. Shell be buried next to her husband on the grounds of the library. Ready to lie in repose at the national library. Lets talk about trading nation. Chip po chipotle store in massachusetts coming down with tnoro virus, ivan, analyst with tigers financial partners, ross wi withcore. So many people wanted to believe that the selloff initially when the first ecoli scare, and here we are with another scare. What is your stance . Neutral rating for quite sometime because of the evaluation, however once we thought the cleaning process, they closed the stores and addressing it, they started to coupon, bringing people back into the stores, it looked like it was safe to go back in, and this is quite surprising. A lot of chatter is out there saying that this could be somehow saab stasome sabotage, but the same problem has come back. When you say you thought it was safe to go in, meaning you thought it would be safe for investors to go back in, even though with any sort of headline or scare, there could be this reaction for investors who have been shellshocked by the initial scares. I mean both, both consumers and investors. They had a big dropoff in business. The restaurants were mostly empty during key times, and all of a sudden, they were very busy during key times. Thats because their coupons forp for free burritos. People were using the coupons, but you saw people making regular purchases. It did bring people back and they were consistently starting to come back. I know youre neutral on the stock, but i think we do need to be clear here. This is not ecoli. This is noro virus, im sick, michelle and all of us, i could sneeze on their keyboard. They had a noro virus last year in boston as well, but theyre not the only ones. Maggianos, the fat duck i think about a year and a half ago, so this is not ecoli, could this be a couple of people getting sick, they got the flu. Thats possible. It was noro virus, and ecoli. When you farm organic, you have to use m it tends to be the ones we see on cruises. Its the context. The context of this scare. Like, i wonder if they have product supply issues, and if they can sanitation issues. Thats a bacteria. Red cross, what do the charts look like, rich. Melissa, plets be clear. From a macro technical standpoint, they go far deeper than just noro virus, whats driving the market, the surge in commodities which is driving energy, the yields, which is driving defensive, like utilities, telcos and staps. Where does that leave us with chip po chipotle, 100 day moving average, key, but more importantly, look at the weekly chart, melissa. Youve broken down below the 200, which has held for the last seven years. Counter trend, you failed there on the counter trend, right back into prior support, which is now resistance. Thats the textbook set up for the sell site. Dont let the headlines distract you from the real issues here, which is driven by the macro, driven by the technical and all of those tell you that you want to be a seller of the stock in here. All right, guys, thank you. More trading nation, head to our website, trading nation c flchlt nbc. Com. Student loans, debt crisis looming, iron soaring this week, and guess what, flowers, yes, flowers may be the reason why. Should be you afraid of an upcoming cyber war. Yes. Would you like to play a game, joshua. Were back right after this. The latest from trading nation, cnbc. Com and a word from our sponsor. Woman is that a newspaper . Man yes. Woman its quaint. Man did you read about this latest cyber attack . Woman yeah, i read it on my watch. Man funny. Woman they took out the whole network. Man they had to hand out pens and paper. Woman yeah. Man could it happen to us . Woman no. Were okay. Man we are . Woman yeah, we brought in some new guys. Man what do they know that we dont . Woman that you cant run a country with pens and paper. Its not just security. Its defense. Bae systems. We need to be ready for my names Scott Strenfel and r im a meteorologist at pg e. We make sure that our crews as well as our customers are prepared to how weather may impact their energy. So every single day were monitoring the weather, and when storm events arise our forecast get crews out ahead of the storm to minimize any outages. During storm season we want our customers to be ready and stay safe. Learn how you can be prepared at pge. Com beprepared. Together, were building a better california. Were going to liberate you from that burden, enable you to get on with your lives to have the future that you deserve. A 500 increase in the Student Loan Debt in this country over the last ten years. You know who has Student Loan Debt, the kids of families that dont make enough money so they cant pay for the school. Imagine that we have access to college, where you tuition that is debt free. You dont have to borrow a dime. We should not punish people for getting a higher education. We should reward them. Those of course are the president ial candidates sounding off on student debt and that could be a ticking time bomb out there, because default rates, actually increasing. In fact, according to the website, overall Student Loan Debt was 200 billion. Currently, it is 1. 3 trillion. What can be done about this. What impact could it have on the economy. Natalai is a nonprofit organization, pushing for education reform, with the American Enterprise institute. Gait to have you with us. Higher education costs a lot of money. Its not necessarily students should be forgiven debt for instance. Well, absolutely. You cant talk about student debt without talking about the high cost of college. But we cant forget the fraud and abuse thats going on by the Student Loan Service hers. What do you mean by that . The fraud . Oh, well, weve seen in the recent cfb report that student loan servers, which used to be sally mae are abusing student loan, overcharging them, misleading them on available government repayment programs, which frankly leads them on the road to. There is going on and the government or authorities are allowing this fraud to perpetuate . I think thats part of the problem. We have a lot of bad actors here, and we need focus on all of them to take care of this huge crisis thats going on for student loan borrowers and 43 million americans. Andrew, i want to bring you in. You say this loan crisis rhetoric is completely overblown. You talk about forgiveness, but before we even get to that point, do you at least agree that this could be in fact a drag on future Economic Growth . These kids are coming out of college, a lot of debt, theyre not going to save for retirement, theyre not going to invest in the stock market. Who knows what the job market is going to bear when they graduate. Look, i think the evidence that this is having a drag on the economy is unclear as of now. And if you think about it, the problem cuts both ways in some ways, because more student debt means more people are getting an education. People who have an education have higher wages, pay more taxes, buy more things. To the extent that student debt is a drag on the economy, it is probably counter balanced by higher wages from college graduates. I do think the crisis rhetoric is overblown in part because the rush to provide solutions to it, we havent really stopped to clearly identify the problem. And the problem is not the 43 Million People who have student any Student Loan Debt at all. Its the people struggling to repay those loans, and those tend to not be the people we think they are. Theyre not the people with the six figure debts that you hear about on the New York Times. They tend to be people with very low debts who dropped out before a degree. Thats where the real problems lic lies and thats where our solution should be geared. So how do you solve that . Congress and the campaign trail have basically been lets throw more money at all borrowers and hopes it helps the subset struggling. Loan refinancing, a favorite policy of the democrats in congress and on the campaign trail, that would give the biggest benefits to people with the biggest debts. We just heard the people with with the biggest debts have the most education, often have graduate degrees. Loan refinancing is giving a wind fall to people who dont necessarily need it and only adding a little bit of help with the borrowers with the lowest debt. We dont have loans refinancing. Let me understand this. So the people who arent paying tend to be the people who have dropped out is what youre saying, andrew, and theyre never really going to have a huge incentive to pay it back, right, because they never got the degree, they never got the apple that they were trying to pick off the tree. Yeah, i think some of the repayment issues are due to frustration with the program that they chose, and the fact that the program may be failed them in many cases. But i do think that a better approach here is to allow borrowers to tie payments to their income. It ensures affordable payments and people with no income with the first stretch, they dont have to pay anything back until they start earning income again. But at the same time it requires borrowers to make payments to the obligation, which is the deal they signed up for. And instills responsibility. How did we get here, we are talking about solving this problem, a story in the Los Angeles Times yesterday, usc is now going to cost more than 50,000 a year. Isnt in some ways easy credit also responsible for the massive jump in the price of college . So, yes. You need to look at the easy availability to loans, but we also have to look at state d disinvestment, and we pay less per student than any time in history. Real quick, to andrews point, we already have those programs. We have repayment programs offered by the federal government, which are tied to your wages, but no one knows about them. Only 3 million of the 43 million borrowers are on them, when about 20 to 30 million more people would qualify. So we have that program, andrew, and right now, borrowers cannot refinance. While that was a bill in congress, it never passed and thats not even existing right now. She went to ucla, i gave her a chance to slam her rivals, and she did not. Kudos to you. We can leave it there. Thank you, guys. Up next, huge rally for medals and mining stocks this week, time to get in . We have one analyst position, plus for other analyst calls coming up in street talk. Straight ahead. By looking at global and local insights to benefit from different points of view. And by consistently breaking apart risk to focus on longterm value. We actively manage with expertise and conviction. So you can invest with more certainty. Mfs. Thats the power of active management. All right, time now for street talk. The Analyst Recommendations that we think you should hear everyday. Cbs, wells fargo up gratigradino out perform the the analyst believes broadcast believe skinny bundles, so cbs goes in. They like retransmission fees. They think thats looking good as well. They did downgrade cbs back on october 15th. Now likes it again. 5860 dollars a share. Weve been talking a lot about stocks that have made come backs since the february 11th lows. Cbs has done better, 22 . Viacom, off the february 11th lows. Dhb getting a downgrade from a hold to buy. Theyre trading above the 24 price target after the huge rally. Jeffrey says they look better versus a couple of months ago, and stimulus may be coming. They say they should use cash flow to pay down debt, versus acquiring assets. The theme you just talked about, the big runs, bhp up 22 in just 30 days, maybe something to do with iron ore, but thats a story later in the show. It has to do with flowers. Phillip morris, bullish on the e significant cret, i dont know the cigarette. The crowded market, they think Phillip Morris has ultria, they see the potential of value add of 27 a share, extra in ten years, on to Phillip Morris, the valuation range goes up by 15 from 109 to 111, minute, she was on fast money. I thought it was interesting, i thought it would have an impact in the domestic, versus internationally, because there are more regulations, and ecigs. Energy and banks, different from normal call weiss do. Drexel out with a noted to. Bank exposure, ranking banks, cit topping the list, total loans outstanding energy. Citi, regents financial came in at third, and bank of america, fourth. You think j. P. Morgan, theyre not in the top four. The bottom line, manageable for all of these banks. Like subprime. That was a joke. That was sarcasm. The fifth stock is Caseys General stores. Go caseys. All right, here we go. Oil up, crude close is coming up. Pig left us 19 years ago today. Announcer Straight Talk brought by wisdom tree. To learn more, visit wisdom tree. Com. Hello everyone, welcome back to power lunch, im sue herrera and here is the cnbc news update. The white house is aware and reviewing iranian Ballistic Missile tests and determine an appropriate response. They said it wont be a surprise if there are additional missile launches over the next several days. Democratic president ial candidate Hillary Clinton, though, says she was deeply concerned about the Iranian Missile launches, and the country should face sarnnctions for its actions. The threats toward israel will not be tolerated. Ted cruz meeting in miami after receiving the endorsement of carly fiorina. The republican contest is now a two man race. It is now clear as weve got some 361 delegates, there are only two candidates that have a credible path to the nomination, a credible path to 1237 delegates, and thats donald trump, who is 100 ahead of me and myself. After a brief private service attended by Nancy Reagans relatives, the casket arrived at the Ronald Reagan president ial library in simi valley, california. The public will be able to pay their respects before the private funeral. She died sunday at her Los Angeles Home at the age of 94. Brian, back to you. Thank you, sue. The oil is set to close higher. Lets find out with jk key. Closed over 38 a barrel, taking out some of the session highs, but taking them out as we got closer to the close. Similar to the action we saw several weeks ago when they were extremely volatile. The Inventory Data this morning. Big build in crude, but drawdown in gasoline. They balanced each other out. The builds and crude coming down a little bit. Season seasonality, looking at it as bullish. Meantime, production here in the u. S. Was flat, week on week, positive sign. It didnt decrease but didnt go up. Were getting closer to the 9 million barrel a day mark. Securing a 6 to 8 billion loan. Leading the market to believe that theyre feeling some pain from the lower oil prices, and that maybe theyll take action, but of course, that is really an inference, and speculation at this point at best. But still, supportive for prices. Back to you. Jackie, thank you. Time now for the power run down. Our first is a strained relationship between the residents of San Francisco and Tech Companies being blamed for everything from high home prices to higher cost of living in general. The New York Times reporting people are cheering, actually cheering for the downfall of the hometown industry. This is going to happen in any kind of boom town i think, right, but in San Francisco, its really exaggerated, because its been a progressive place for a long time so air going to have this attitude, especially so much focus on equality. A lot of money, San Francisco, a lot of growth to San Francisco. If the boom went away, the cheering, be care of what you wish for. Thats true. The Service Industries being supported, the development, et cetera. We think its like the same place. Like Silicon Valley in San Francisco, theyre an hour apart. It could be three hours with the traffic, as you creep through burlingame, right. The first internet boom wasnt in san franciscfrancisco. Theyre based downtown. Busing out, for instance. And so its finally hitting San Francisco. I thought it was amazing, the city adding 10,000 people a year to a record. Explain why. Highest in the country. Yeah, 3,500 a month. Beats new york city. There is nowhere to go. So pretty. All right, next story here, dosiqui retiring, after it introduced at introduced ad setting move. He is 77. Older, an older gentlemen ja. They gave him the job when he was 70. Thats pretty good. They have to refresh the band. He reminds me of the aflak duck. Is the duck no longer with aflak. No, he was really pivotal. And the duck doesnt age. Thats the upside to having a duck instead of a man. Right. When in rome, the romans do as he does. Ill miss him. Iron prices skyrocketing to hold the flower show. Snapping up the ingredient as they ramp up progression of the six month showdown. Massive implications in terms of pricing of commodities around the world. Why is iron ore moving. They think this is the answer. So chinese, right. They have a he got a big flower show coming, they have to stop the pollution, so they told everyone for four months, shut down the mils, so they have to work extra capacity leading up to the shut down and go on the buying binge. I mean, the downfall of a managed economy that theyre claimed theyre not managing. Ive been working on this one for 60 seconds, very proud of it. The pen may be mightier than the sword, but in this case, the go. Im not the most interesting man in this newsroom. An interesting things, youre going off to williston. Williston, North Carolina. Yeah. Third trip in two years, really the, i dont want to call it the ground zero, but the epicenter of the oil story. I think 1,000 barrels a kay being produced in North Carolina a year ago. 1,000 barrels a day. Now its 1 poin 2 Million Barrels a day. Come down, operating wells come down by 75 . Growth was out of control. You know, my hotel, last year, when i went in december 2014, i think it was 379 a night for a hampton inn. The flights, its adjusting, were talking to some of the same people. How are they doing. How are they managing their business. Were going to get some Good Business lessons about running a growth story when it slows down dramatically, what have they learned, adjusting, surviving. Great on the ground stuff well see you tomorrow. And its going to be 60 degrees, versus minus 20. Well see you on friday. Have a safe trip. The dow up 160 , or are the bears about to take over. Well debate that next on power lunch. Welcome to opportunitys knocking, where selfproclaimed financial superstars pitch you investment opportunities. Ive got a fantastic deal for you gold with the right pool of investors, theres a lot of money to be made. But first, investors must ask the right questions and use the smartcheck challenge to make the right decisions. Youre not even registered; im done with you i can. I can. Savvy investors check their financial pros background by visiting smartcheck. Gov at ally bank, no branches equals great rates. Its a fact. Kind of like bill splitting equals nitpicking. But i only had a salad. It was a buffalo chicken salad. Salad. In new york state, we believe tomorrow starts today. All across the state, the economy is growing, with creative new business incentives, and the lowest taxes in decades, attracting the talent and companies of tomorrow. Like in buffalo, where the largest solar gigafactory in the western hemisphere will soon energize the world. And in syracuse, where imagination is in production. Let us help grow your companys tomorrow today at business. Ny. Gov today marks the seven anniversary of the bull market run, third longest on record. Jeff making a bearish case last night on a conference call. Listen to what he had to say about the confidence in the risk reward. A lot of belief right now in risk markets. I think risk markets have a poor risk reward setup. If we use the stock markets as a proxy, it seems to me the s p 500 maybe has 2 of upside and probably 20 of downside for a 101 risk ratio. Is it over . John najarian, dr. J, you totally dont agree. Whats going to keep us going. I look at zero Interest Rate policy, michelle, and i think that were going to continue to plmelissa. There is one here. I think were going to continue to see upside because of low Interest Rate policy. I think when you take a look at things like for instance, the volatility index overseas with whats going on with ecb right now, whats showing up right now is about a 19 pop in volatility going into drahgi right now. The same here in the United States in the s p 500, however, neither of these are any where near where we were in february. So in other words, jeff is a genius. He has done a fabulous job building double line, but i think that people clearly are not betting with him, that there is morrisie risk to the downsid jack, how bearish are you, jeff also said gold would hit 1,400, you know, so he is putting his money where his mouth is so to speak. First of all, you can go broke, ill say that to start with. Like the kardashians. There is something that happened i would say early december when we took out 40 in oil to the downside, the fundamentals of this market really changed. It also coincided with the end of the economic cycle, which usually takes about seven years. Now, what were going through right now is fully expected, when you call me a bear, im really a longterm bear. Im looking what jeffrey is about is spot on, primarily because of the relationship with oil. Remember, last year at this time, the ten largest sovereign funds 6 trillion, either china with the exception of sing singapo singapore. Mass liquidation. Take the saudis for example. This is a country that has not needed money for years. Here they are, borrowing capital. That giving you an indication of where these Oil Producing nations are and where the selling pressure came from. So unless youre convinced that oil is going back up to 50, watch out, i dont think the pain is over yet. Dr. J, even if it goes up to 50, that doesnt for the oil producers, there has to be selling down the road. Your points and jacks is that a lot of that sovereign wealth selling created the opportunity that i see to the upside, michelle, because when i see that aggressive selling that was literally like margin selling is, that is indiscriminate which was happening in january. Financials, for instance, one of their biggest holdings. Exactly, financials, but of course, the thing that they had to tap, melissa, was whatever they could. In other words, the most liquid areas of the market are the exact ones they sold. I would say there were stocks like apple that got pushed all the way down to 96 a share. Think many of those are great opportunities with much more upside than downside from this level, jack may or may not agree with that. Jack, just quickly, wasnt to get your take on how youre seeing traders positioning ahead of tomorrow, which could impact tomorrows session. I think everybody is looking for the dollar to go up. I dont think anyone is looking for hawk ish comments. If thats the case, the question of deflation starts to spring up again. Guys, thank you. Tmassive flooding all over. This is brazil, show them all to you, but is there an even more serious threat coming our way. How afraid should we be of a cyber war. Thats next, on power lunch. She wants to change the world with you. She can program jet engines to talk and such. Her biggest weakness is she cares too much. Thank you. My friend really wants a job at ge. Mine too. Im a wise elf from a far off shire. And sanjay patel is who you should hire. Thank you. Seriously though, stacy went to a great school and shes really loyal. You should give her a shot. Sanjays a team player and uh. The waters are rising around the world this morning. We start in the United States. This is louisiana. Dozens of people had to be evacuated. Police going around in boats to rescue some of the res departments there. In brazil, hundreds of people forced out of their homes. In venice, italy, a quarter of the land area after venices canals overflowed. A big Natural Disaster weve been talking about, the next major human disaster could be manmade. Here is john mcphee. Talking about a massive cyber attack. There is a cyber war. Everybody knows this. Were ill prepared. Were way behind. And we will not survive. A report to Congress Last year stated that if a major cyber war occurred with china, 90 of the american populous would perish within one year. Fred kaplan war stories for slate, the new book, Dark Territory, the secret history of cyber war, joining us here. A lot of people may think youre an expert on cyber, but youre an expert on war. Youve written about war for a long time. National security, nsa as well. John mcphee, is he right, cyber war coming, are we in one right now. Way too far when he says 90 of the population would perish. I dont know weighs talking about exactly. He is our Computer Security industry and might have an interest in saying that. But it is true. Look, we are we have infiltrated into the networks of military and Critical Infrastructure in many countries abroad. Many countries abroad are trying to infiltrate our military, have in many cases, theyre vulnerable to attacks. This has been acknowledged by the pentagon, which no longer a from it quickly. They accept that somebodys going to get in if they want to. Reading your book, i get the point this is the new face of war, cyberwar. It will definitely be an important supplement to any war. In war, all of our Qualitative Advantage in weapons are wrapped up in things that are plugged into computers. If they hack into this, or Qualitative Advantage goes away. The navy is currently training its navy gators on ships to use section ta sexan sextant, and they would have to do it the oldfashioned way . Yeah. Edward snowden said today he thinks its b. S. That the government cant get into the apple phone. Where do you come down on the debate . Im not asking you about what apple should do. A lot of people are saying, wait a minute, the government cant do it themselves . Theyre perplexed. The nsa could. Could get into the phone . Yeah. If they really thought that there was something on this phone that we urgently needed to get information on, the nsa could go to the attorney general and get something signed and they could hack into this phone without any cooperation from apple. The fact that they havent done that and the fact that the fbi has entered a legal battle which would take months to settle, suggests that there might not be anything in this phone. Why are we going through the kabuki dance . Because the fbi and administration as a whole apple is right in this sense. The fbi wants to create a new legal precedent for weakening encryption, fro strengthening their authority to get into encryption, but you know, this is perpetuating. They want to perpetuate an arrangement thats been going on for decades. Back in the 20s an Intelligence Agency made an arrangement with Western Union to gain access to all the telegraphs. Every single telegram. They could get access to it. At t had similar arrangements, since the enter net has happened, its a twoway street. Microsoft, their first windows program, when they submitted it for approval so that the Defense Department could buy it, the nsa found 1500 points of vulnerability, and helped them repair them. Well, not all of them, most of them, leaving a few doors so that when foreign powers bought the windows program, they could get in. I laughed reading your book, because the internet of the 80s was wild west and i was surprised how hollywood influenced so many things, including war games and sneakers. That was real. Ronald reagan watched war games the first weekend of june, there is a meeting the following wednesday about Something Else completely, but all of his National Security advisers were there. In about ten minutes into the meeting he says has anybody seen this movie war games . He turns to his top general and says, general, could Something Like this really happen . He says ill look into it, and he comes back a week later, and said the problem is much worse than you think, which led to the first president ially signed directive, which unleashed a battle between the nsa and congress and other entities in the government over who will control setting the standards for security. In other words, its bizarre, but everything that we see going on now was put in motion when Ronald Reagan watched war games. Thats a great story. Its a great book, fred. Thank you for joining us here on cbs. Fred kaplan is author of the new book Dark Territory the secret history of the cyberwar. One of the f. A. N. G. Stocks making a play today. The full story when cnbc returns. Your business is on hold. Thats why comcast business doesnt leave you there. When you call, a Small Business expert will answer you in about 30 seconds. No annoying hold music. Just a real person, real fast. Whenever you need them. Great, thats what i said. So your business can get back to business. Sounds like my rides ready. Dont get stuck on hold. Reach an expert fast. Comcast business. Built for business. Thank you. Imagine if the things you bought every day. Earned you miles to get to the places you really want to go. With the united mileageplus explorer card, youll get a free checked bag, two united club passes, priority boarding, and 30,000 bonus miles. Everything you need for an unforgettable vacation. The united mileageplus explorer card. Imagine where it will take you. We built our factories here because of a huge natural resource. Not the land. The water. Or power sources. Its the people. American workers. They build worldclass products. And that builds communities. And a better future. For all of us. Because making something in america means so much, to so many. Weathertech. Proudly made in america. We believe in the power of active management. Management, by debating our research to find the best investments. By looking at global and local insights to benefit from different points of view. And by consistently breaking apart risk to focus on longterm value. We actively manage with expertise and conviction. So you can invest with more certainty. Mfs. Thats the power of active management. Welcome back to power lunch. We have two big headlines. First up, amazon is going deeper into the supply chain, going into the air freight business, and leases 20 companies from air transports. It will operate the network for niv years. In the meantime it will be warrants with an option to buy 20 of the company, so if you look at atsg, thats the interesting stock chart. Its hitting a new alltime high on the prospect that amazon could own a big piece of them soon. A bit of vertical integration. The other big story, the first live tv so style code live. Are you going to watch this . Youre so excited about this . No, i just think i think amazon is one of the most interesting stocks we debate on cnbc, because for years weve been wondering when will they show strong profitability to justify what has been an incredible move . And jeff bezos has defied people over and over against as he expands into these different businesses. The i think its super interesting. And if he wanted to, he could show a profit, but their focus is on growth. I hate to say that, but he operates almost like a private company. We have all these things working. The fact of the matter is theyve got the luxury of having amazon web services, which is a huge growth engine. What i find so interesting about web services, you look at the margins, theyre small and helping everybody else reduce their costs, right, by allowing people on these massive servers, yet compared to the margins in the rest of the business, the margins look good, considering how small they are on book and everything else. He throws stuff at the wall, some of it fails, he shakes it off and he moves on. Its been impressive. It has been. You wonder if at a certain point theyll clamor for detail about bush more transparency at a more granular level as we are seeing with google breaking out some of its big bets that may pay off like the selfdriving car. I wonder what the mission is with style code live. Qvc is pretty profitable, so the model for getting people to sell it has to be out there. You wonder what the networks are thinking if theyre getting into live tv, whats next . Well have much more on this story, specifically on fast moneys. Well discuss the freighter side. What will it have on the likes of u. P. S. Or fedex, could it be threatened if amazon owns its own supply chain. That and much more tonight on fast tonight at 5 00. Thanks for watching power lunch. Closing bell is up next. One shining moment its all on the line one shining moment basketball fans know that march madness doesnt start until next week. However the market march madness kicks in tomorrow, with the european meeting, and the bank of japan, our own fed decision is coming up, plus the florida and ohio primaries are next week, and the possible oil output meeting of the opec and nonopec producers, coming up around march 20th. And that is what we call march madness. Wish we could do brackets on banks. Im sara eisen. Thank you for staying up late today. Never woke up at 3 00 a. M. . I would only do it for you. Many years ago i