Transcripts For CSPAN2 Discussion 20240706

Next a discussion about the political future and chinas military modernization with policy experts from the broking institution and at the German Marshall Fund. The panel also talks about the tension between taiwan and china and the probability of the u. S. Going to war with china over taiwan. Welcome everyone. Im Suzanne Maloney Vice President and director of the Foreign Policy program at the Brookings Institution and im delighted to welcome you to todays event marking the release of an important new book titled u. S. Taiwan relations with chinas challenge lead to a crisis. It is a great honor to help launch such a profoundly important to study of the u. S. Taiwan relations and to celebrate its truly impressive coauthors, ryan and richard bush who are my colleagues here at brookings and Bonnie Glaser of the German Marshall Fund. I want to congratulate them on the publication of this book. Growing concerns about chinas intentions and plans prompted an enormous amount of policy attention on cross trade affairs here in washington and around the world. Some u. S. Officials called for action that may depart from the longstanding u. S. Policy posture on taiwan and risk more harm than benefits for the longterm objectives that are shared by the United States and taiwan. Peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. Bonnie, richard and ryan responded to an increasingly overheated to debate with a book that called for calm and informed policymaking. The book lays out the past, present and future of the Taiwan Strait and appeals to the decisionmakers to appreciate taiwan and its 23. 5 Million People as friends of the United States who share similar ideals and aspirations with the american people. The authors also explain how america can best support taiwan and its people and their contest for the future. I cant imagine a more timely or relevant study. The authors draw on their deep knowledge and hand to run expertise in writing this book. Ryan is currently a senior fellow at the michael h chair and Foreign Policy here at brookings where he holds the joint appointment to the china center into the center for east asia policy studies. He is also the sicilia chair in taiwan studies here at brookings. Prior to joining the institution, he served as director for china, taiwan and mongolia on the National Security council and in that role he advised president obama and senior white house officials on all aspects of u. S. Policy towards china, taiwan and mongolia and coordinated the implementation of the policy throughout the region. We are also joined today by the second coauthor who is the managing director of the German Marshall Fund indo pacific program. Shes also a nonresident fellow with the institute in Sydney Australia and senior associate with the pacific forum. Shes worked at the intersection of asiapacific geopolitics and u. S. Policy for more than three decades including at the center for strategic and International Studies and in Government Service at the department of defense and state. Finally, we are also joined by our third coauthor here today, richard bush. Richard spent more than 20 years with brookings helping to found what is now the center for east asia policy studies where he is currently a nonresident senior fellow. Richard started his career at the asia society and went on to serve in the u. S. Government for many years including in positions with the House Foreign Affairs committee and the National Intelligence council. From 1997 to 2002 he served as the chairman and managing director of the American Institute in taiwan, the mechanism through which the United States government conducts substantive relations with taiwan and absence of diplomatic relations. And of course we are thrilled to have the newshour Foreign Affairs and defense correspondent nick shifrin who will moderate the discussion along with the three authors of this masterful book. Following their conversation, we will open the discussion to those of you here in the audience for questions and answers. Microphones will be passed around the audience. A quick reminder that we are live and on the record. If you would like to submit your questions those the few that are watching the program virtually, please do so at the email address event at brookings edu or twitter with the hashtag u. S. Taiwan relations. Since this is a book event, let me just say the book is currently on sale, available for purchase in the bookstore in the lobby of the Brookings Institution, or any online realtor of your choice. I encourage you to pick up a copy. There could be no more important to look at this moment. The floor is all yours. Thank you very much and thank you all for being here. I will say you are not going to get the signed copy if you order it online. Thats my plug. Thank you. Brian, it is your name at the top. You get the first big question and what im going to do here is we can do a quick first round, get some of the big thoughts from all three of you and then the book has been divided into three top present kind of last few years and then future. Richard is in the past and ryan has been the future so we will split up the rest of the conversation based on having split up the writing of the book but the first round, the overall and ryan you get the question that you asked in your subtitle will chinas challenge lead to a crisis . Thank you for being here and its wonderful to be among so many friends and have the audience, my family watching in seattle. Will the challenge leave the crisis . I will tell you my answer and im sure my colleagues well i dont think it is a forgotten conclusion. I think that if we look at whats happened over the past 40 years theres been a dynamic among all three parties each responding to the actions that have led to the other and theres no reason to believe weve arrived at some conclusion in history. But i do think is that its the fundamental interest of all three parties to avoid conflict as possible and there is no inevitability in conflict at all and thats part of the work the book is trying to do. One of the things we want to do is harness this growing interest to that exists in the United States across productive purposes. My view is that a lot of energy has been devoted to the security and defense side of that discussion. As some of the economic and other issues have been underweight in the discussion hopefully through the process of the book we can begin to balance. Youve answered enough questions of mine and youre going to answer whatever questions you want. [laughter] rather than giving you the same thing, let me read to you a quote you may know this is going on already. December 2021 taiwan is located within the first chain anchoring a network of u. S. Allies and partners that is critical to the regional security, critical to the defense of vital u. S. Interests in the indo pacific. You went on to say taiwan is a stark contrast in authoritarianism and oppression in the prc. Taiwan has proven the possibility of alternatives to that of the Chinese Communist party. Does the u. S. Now viewed taiwan as a Strategic Asset to be kept separate . Thank you. I want to thank you for a fun project writing this book and starting off with a tough question i think that the United States has had a powerful policy of accepting any outcome that is agreedupon peacefully besides the two sides of the straight. We have yet to hear a Biden Administration official make that statement and a so in the absence of that statement, i believe that the description did raise concerns among many people that the United States use taiwan as such an important Strategic Asset that it would under no circumstances allow it ever to be integrated into the peoples republic of china and i think that the danger of that conclusion if that judgment is made by beijing, if that increasingly this is potentially part of a chinese assessment that the United States has walked away from all of the components of its one china policy and weve heard many chinese officials express about that even President Bidens statements directly many say are not credible as chinese experts say that on the various conversations. The president says he will support Taiwan Independent of the chinese claim that actions dont match our words. So, my view is that we need to have a clear and consistent set of policies from the u. S. Administration and that its really not in our interest to foreclose the possibility at some point in the future. This is even part of taiwans policy that if there is majority of people in taiwan that if there were to be a referendum because the people of taiwan would have to agree that there could be some outcome in which the two sides of the street find a way to have a relationship thats different than the one it is today. That door should be left open. Closing the door creates more potential for crisis. And richard, we will come to you. And the history and a second. We talk so much about the u. S. Policy of course, talk so much about beijing whether its military modernization or some of the coercion that is used with the other tools. The taiwanese people theres a sentence in the book maybe you wrote it or maybe not but you can speak to this, the will of the taiwan people to put their democrat excess demand political autonomy at the center of gravity for determining the future of the Taiwan Strait. Why . Can you explain that . First of all, let me thank you for quarterbacking this effort and getting the ball over the goal line. Without his efforts it wouldnt have happened. This is not a purely military issue. It is a political dispute with the military dimension and at the end of the day, what china has been trying to do is persuade the leaders in taiwan and the people in taiwan that unification under the terms that they have set forth the one country and two system formula is so in taiwans interest that of course they would want to comply. The people of taiwan have their own views. They oppose one country to systems by a wide margin. On the other hand, they dont want to go for a republic of taiwan. A completely independent entity. They understand that independent means more and that if taiwan is seen by the United States is provoking that war, they cant be confident that we would come to their defense. So they are very pragmatic and the status quo is not perfect but its a hell of a lot better than any of the other options. I think that its very important that beijing realized the democracy in taiwan is authentic. That the opinion polls we see are not the result of the antics by politicians but this is 23 Million People who live in a Civilized Society and if theres going to be a change in the status quo they have to be convinced that it is the right thing to do and that that decision has been carried out from some sort of an authoritative mechanism. I will take about 25 minutes or so to go through the past, present and future if you well and then i will open it up to questions here and we have some questions coming in from the audience already. So, let me start with back in the 40s take us through a few aspects and we will get quickly to that party were ending with about the taiwanese democracy but first why in the ccp and kmt are they not considering taiwan particularly important and how did that change . Why did they not consider taiwan particularly important and then how did that change . It was something of a nonissue in the 1930s because japan owned taiwan and the republic of china government acknowledged that and had a consulate on taiwan. The ccp and katie were fighting their own civil war. However, as people started thinking about the postwar settlement, it suddenly occurred to people in taiwan, people in the United States and the ccp that who controlled taiwan would be important. One person involved in this was Franklin Roosevelt and his conception of the postwar order was that the great powers would Work Together to maintain peace and security and that this would be is done through quarantines and air bombardment so islands became very important and so it was automatic for him to say taiwan should go back to china. John had a similar view and he felt that taiwan was one of the chinese fortresses, one of the gateways guarding china from foreign aggression and it was much better for the republic of china than to not. The communists actually were the last to come to an agreement on this. But once they did, they then ferocious as tigers and defending that view. Absolutely. We are going to fastforward through a lot of taiwanese history. Remind us how taiwanese gained a seat at the table through democratic reforms and how fundamental a shift that was and even to this day how influential is that . Taiwan is the poster child for the third wave of democratization and in a way proves the hypothesis that a society that goes through social and economic modernization creates a public that wants more of a say over its future. Moreover, there is a special factor operating in taiwan and that was the kmt under president john wanted to impose a conservative version of the chinese nationality. And moreover, john had stated the goal of recovery of the mainland and the civil war was still going on and therefore you couldnt have democracy. His son and i think had a much different attitude. He was more a man of the people and recognized in a counterintuitive way that the kmt could better stay in power by opening up this political system than by keeping it tight and allow the taiwanese identity to grow and flourish. Maybe also to make it harder for the prc to reach its unification goals. So what happened in taiwan as a result of enlightened thinking my leaders but also by pressure from the opposition and a little bit of pressure from some american congressmen that i know taiwan made the transition to democracy peacefully, gradually and in an Ethnic Chinese society which people at that time thought was impossible. And one of the things you point out it became part of the struggle between the democratic and communist goliath and the u. S. Instinct was to support david. How important is that . It depends on i think today how much our political leaders and politicians understand the background of u. S. China taiwan relations. There was a time not too long ago when the consensus in the United States was that u. S. Interests are served by having a Good Relationship with china. Economic, political and security. The soviet union was the target of that policy for a long time then there was the belief that if we could cooperate as much as possible with china, that would serve peace and prosperity. Its only been in the last ten years or so you have the consensus to viewing china as hostile and in the early days the leaders understood they needed to balance the policies. Now there is no balance. And you also make one last point they didnt create the term rejuvenation. He didnt create the term rejuvenation. It is not something that we can say he was a revolutionary leader about the product of the party and that isnt the case that it created the idea that didnt exist. Whether its rejuvenation or revival its an ambition that goes back more than a century but restoring wealth and power to china was the goal of statesmen in the dynasty and in the republic of china and the peoples republic of china. The corollary of that is at least from the ccp side, china that doesnt have taiwan under control isnt. That brings up the singular leader. How has he both accelerated what we could argue is the fastest military modernization in World History but also you write quite extensive use of other instruments of power. How has that often been pointed out taiwan . Its a very important question because of course china has developing the return for some time and it has been under the really rapid progress made including breakthroughs that have made to china dominated some areas of military Technology Like hypersonics. We see an incredible achievement in space and things like that but in terms of the toolbox china has to use against taiwan we have seen massive and developed misinformation. Cyber tools when Speaker Pelosi was in taiwan in august of last year and then the chinese initiated their display of force after she left one of the examples with the use of cyber taking control of the video cameras it displays in the 711s throughout taiwan. And theres been many instances in which its been a tax to take down government websites periodically representatives from taiwans government gives data of how many attacks there are per day or month and if it is massive. Then of course the media where there is been purchases of media in taiwan and some of that was outed by some journalist who found theres some media organizations in taiwan who actually been receiving money and also instructions from the Taiwan Affairs office. So the amount of interference and forms of pressure is incredible. It really has increased and that is the latest component that we didnt see for some time but now its growing in the economic and of course in the sense its interesting china had been using economic coercion against so many others for a decade but didnt do much against taiwan because their goal was economic integration so they wanted to give preferences to the taiwanese businesses. At that that would be a pathway to the unification. But with the reduced confidence in networking, we have seen china take more economic courses and we saw this with the alleged whatever they claimed and now some kinds of fish. Its through over a thousand Agricultural Products although if you look at the overall exports to china it is still a drop in the bucket. So to me it is still a slap on the wrist about an indication of what china could do. However if they go into the sector they will be harming themselves and i dont china wants to shoot themselves in the foot. That is a discussion that they will talk about today in terms of the chips. Lets do taiwan for a second and then the u. S. Policy. So, take us through the president s First Campaign or early missteps how did she recover and how has she evolved into taking a much more harder stance . If we go back to when the president first ran for the presidency in taiwan, she was ultimately defeated. One of the reasons she did come here to washington, d. C. To meet with officials and they asked about her approach to china and her answers were not adequate. Her main message privately was you can trust me but not a lot of details on why. Perhaps the u. S. Officials would have been satisfied so this was a learning process on their part and so ultimately yes she was defeated the first time when she ran. She brought to this position a tremendous amount of experience. More so than i think many people who dont know taiwan well. Its also been the negotiator for the wto the head of the mainland of horse counseling all the different positions that really i think came to understand how to not get effectively the relationship with china and the United States. Its not necessarily whats the instinct that helps you navigate the relations with either one particularly the United States. She understood when she was elected that she needed to try to keep relations with china stable and had a sophisticated plan that initially laid out part of the speech in down the street. Some of that was repeated in the inaugural address where she talked about her policies would be based on the constitution, the governing relations with of the Taiwan Strait acknowledging that there had been a meeting between the representatives in 1992 which i would say went more than halfway towards acknowledging there was something somebody later on called the 1992 consensus. Lets remember that politically that would have been a debt for her because her party would never have accepted the consensus. If you look at all that she laid on the table in her first speech and in her actions and some of the months to come i think presented opportunities that beijing did not and should have responded to. How did she evolved a little bit . They set the bar deliberately to high so ultimately overtime yes she took a harder line. We saw that even begin that october in the First National speech but it was really after the crackdown in hong kong the protest when she was running for reelection and her polling was very low at the time and i think that was really her policies towards china that just became much tougher where she stated that they dont want to live under one country to systems. That the chinese pledge towards hong kong certainly couldnt be trusted how could the people of taiwan over trust any pledge that would be made towards taiwan and she ended up winning by a margin of 25 . Which brings us pretty much to the present day. Talk about one aspect of what we are seeing in taiwan today which is theres been dispute over how to defend the island by the National Security council and brace with the u. S. That is what we call the porcupine strategy. The ministry of National Defense historically has had certain political connections to beijing and also a certain sense of the tanks and f16s being imported. To be able to prove to the people that they could defend themselves is that dispute still existing and what is the implication if it does . The way that i would frame it as you said i answer the question i would frame it as a debate between how you balance the resources and investments between addressing the invasion threat and the gray zone threat that is everything the chinese are doing that are short of triggering the kinetic response and that includes all the things i talked about earlier so i think that there are people here in the United States. We are so worried about these threats that we think that they should just put all of its investment into the kind of capabilities that would prevent them from successfully landing on the beach. Harpoons and stingers and things of that nature. They were to say wait a minute we have every single opportunity in the air Defense Identification Zone we still need advanced fighter jets into the pilots that are trained to conduct those kind of intercepts. We need to demonstrate to our own people by doing that at that we are defending ourselves. We cant just abandon that mission and just focus on the potentials. So i think even though the way the genitals think about that balance as different and within the country we all have differences of course but nevertheless the trend is in the right direction but they started to take much more seriously the need to actually prevent them from establishing the invasion threat more seriously than they did several years ago and i think that the u. S. Has come around to understand that there are some areas where they are going to have to let taiwan cope with these threats as well. One last one to you and then we will come to you. You are right there is no policy playbook for supporting taiwan against the chinese pressures and i think youre talking about more than just military there. Why isnt there that playbook and how it deficient this u. S. Policy until that playbook exists . Theres probably pieces of it the ways in which china applies pressure on taiwan are so deep and broad and growing all the time in the nature of them is changed into good example of that is probably disinformation. We saw for example when the russians invaded ukraine and there was this massive effort to that they didnt come to ukraines rescue so therefore of course they are unreliable. Its not going to come to taiwans rescue and i dont see that as being a credible narrative but im surprised how many people in taiwan are worried about that. And i was recently in taiwan when the story broke that President Biden had a plan to destroy taiwan which i thought was absolutely ludicrous but interesting how many people were really worried about that. President bidens had four times we will come to their defense. What do you mean you think that this is credible but thats exactly what, i mean, by helping support taiwan against chinese pressure. Its what we are doing, its how we are communicating it to the people of taiwan and its also how we are communicating it to china and even to other countries so that we can get other countries on board with a strategy. So theres so many different layers of this. I give the Administration Credit for making an effort and making headway on some of the pieces. I think internationalizing the Taiwan Strait, getting countries in europe for example to have more of a stake in the preservation and its something that the Biden Administration made good strides in but there doesnt seem to be a really overall set of Government Strategies to help push back against this pressure. They need to have more confidence. The risk of taiwan losing confidence in this government and in the United States is enormous because as we write in the book first and foremost the strategy is one to induce psychological despair. The people of taiwan have no choice other than to give into china and to take whatever beijing puts on the table. We have to avoid that from happening. You right its important to remind beijing of its vulnerabilities. The u. S. Must provide reassurance that the u. S. Is open to any peaceful resolution. Why is beijing looking for reassurance and why do you think reminding beijing of the vulnerabilities would make a difference . I will do my best to answer the question but i want to go to the point that richard made because i think that its absolutely foundational to the argument of the book. Richard was pointing out that since the peoples republic of china there has been a through lining, a threat of ambition to absorb taiwan. Taiwan is the last jewel on the crown for china and something they are committed to. The reason why this is such an important point is because it belies the notion if we had a little bit more military capability or for averments that this would all solve itself and china would retreat and abandon its ambitions. This is sort of foundational to the challenge where it means the strength of the law isnt going to solve this problem, smarts are going to be increasing. Im really glad that richard made that point and i think bonnie has done a Tremendous Service talking about the two paths running parallel getting to the same destination information. One is a military path within invasion type of scenario and the other is this career zone without violence and if we fixate on the one and ignore the other, we are missing the train upon which this competition is challenging. Its absolutely critical and im glad that bonnie didnt really focus on this. We know that if we come from hard personal experience if we want to create a New York Times bestseller we would put a Mushroom Cloud on the cover and initiate it by robotic code. Thats how you sell books and attract attention. Thats not what we are trying to do. We are trying to nudge the discussion into a little bit more holistic comprehensive view of the challenges and that sort of gets to the question that you phrased which is why should the United States be open to any potential future scenario. Our argument is what would be the value of stealing property in the future what would the United States gained by foreclosing a potential solution to the differences and what costs or risks would we incur in the process . The people of taiwan have no enthusiasm for nearterm unification. This isnt something that many in the United States spent a lot of time worrying about. The people of taiwan showed through repeated elections they dont have a lot of appetite for degradations. The policy and strategy isnt to solve but the people on the Mainland China are not looking for the United States media role. This is an artifact of an unfinished civil war. The purpose of strategy and policy is to keep the path open for a resolution to be found by the protagonists themselves. But there is a deadline . We should talk about that. This is where we need to orient our thinking, not towards speculating whether or not theres going to be this time line for an invasion. As far as i know 2026 is still open on the bingo board if anyone wants it but seriously we need to sort of really start sharpening our thinking and having more discipline and precision because the stakes couldnt be higher. There are some who disagree but explain why he reassurance is important to beijing that the u. S. Remained open to whatever taiwan decides despite the statement antibody reminding beijing of its vulnerabilities would make a difference. The purpose of our efforts is not to embarrass but to make clear there are risks if they were to try to resolve this conflict. Just as the United States is focused on the russian vulnerabilities is somewhere a process would play itself out if there were ever a conflict in the Taiwan Strait. The economy is minor ten times larger and different than russia but has significant vulnerabilities. And we dont need to spend a ton of time but we should make sure they are aware of the capacity should they become necessary to do so and on the reinsurance side, Thomas Schilling who is a famous political scientist has written about deterrence. Good deterrence also has an element of reassurance to it and if you have to transfer that reassurance while youre doing is trying to back someone in a corner. I told you offstage after you left and reiterated your argument which of course others make as well and they point out where they argue beijing is and after reassurance and beijing will not act based on some kind of lack of reassurance but when it is capable of achieving what it wants. Can you respond to that . I welcome my coauthors response as well. I think that there is a philosophical disagreement. The idea that a measure of capabilities will be determinative whether beijing chooses to invade taiwan. I would offer the past decades as proof. I also would posit that show us the evidence. Show us your work to make this case because what i hear him telling his peoples china is winning. That they are on a path leading towards the goal of unification, that they should stay on their current course and they are capable of achieving the outcomes that they receive through those current strategy. Other than the fact china is engaging in a program we all should take seriously and be careful but it also is similar to every other previous rising power in modern history. What is the evidence that suggests that its accurate . Very quickly because i want to get one last question then weve got the audience. I think that beijing, the reinsurance is important to the decisionmaking so if youve done credible if the chinese believed that the United States essentially abandoned its one china policy then what is the point for them to not go ahead and use force if they believe that weve crossed what is the redline. I believe that they have two red lines that are real. The rest i believe or not. One is that the United States essentially resurrects the mutual defense treaty with taiwan and the other is that we accept that taiwan as an independent sovereign state. If the people in the white house would tell you they dont have the intention of doing either of those but if the chinese believe that thats where we are headed, then we are headed towards a crisis so its not just an issue of concessions. We have to provide a consistent and credible and coherent policy. What i try to lay out in my section of the book is how this administration actually has not done that. Its been very unclear, contradictory, inconsistent so they are basically left wondering what is that policy and will they wake up and find of the United States is going to recognize an independent taiwan . I think that is standard. Two quick questions. Reassurance is only useful for a party that wants to be reassured. Beijing finds it more convenient to not accept our expressions of restraint and prefer to just call us liars. A second, talking about the capabilities and deadlines and whatnot lets remember taiwan has a say in this and if in 2024 they were to elect a president who was more to beijings liking and who was willing to go back to the sort of situation we had, as difficult as that may be, i think that those issues would disappear because we would be in a zone of more cooperation. To that last point you point out next year as an Election Year not just in the u. S. And you talk about how the window is closing. Do you want to avoid feeling like the window is closing. Is there a series where it makes it feel like the window is closed. Anything is hypothetically possible. Its dangerous to be speculative on stage in front of the hunger of the smart people, but i dont see the high likelihood of that. Taiwan has two major parties running for the election but the incumbent party its candidates, hes a professional politician whos going to appeal to where the majority of the voters are because he wants to become president and win the election and the majority are in a space that is pretty pragmatic that isnt one extreme of independence or the other of unification so i dont think that the people of taiwan are going to provide a publication. They would trigger conflict. Ive gone a little bit long. Let me turn to the audience if you could keep your questions singular, keep your brilliance brief. Right here in the middle. Please identify yourself. This is probably they focused on engaging and then to put the issue outward. My question is do you think in the coming years the Biden Administration will have a broader and substantial relations with taiwan. Will the u. S. Accelerate the convention . I think it is quite likely that the 21st 21st Century Initiative on trade with taiwan will be completed. Thats the first five chapters. There are seven more to go. If it is the most likely thing. I wouldnt say that its low hanging fruit. Theres a few chapters that are going to be very difficult and i think that is doable. I think it is highly unlikely that taiwan is going to be included in the number of tests. In the Pacific Economic framework . Which was. The reason they number a number of those countries that joined would not have become part of it if the United States had included taiwan and that was a tradeoff to do something as the Biden Administration made. If you look at the chapters in the trade agreement you will see that it really mirrors the agreement and probably will become pleaded before. We could be moving towards something that might be Something Like a freetrade agreement with taiwan but as you heard from probably everybody right here, we are in a National Security advisory speech given a few days ago there is still a strong belief in the administration it shouldnt be the litmus test of whether or not a trade agreement is a good agreement. So there will be i think continued development but it may not look like the kind of freetrade agreement we have seen in the past or the agreement that taiwan want santa just one more thing i think we should stay tuned. There will be progress on the devastation agreement because that has gainful traction in the congress, in the administration theres a potential for some progress. There were a couple of hand is here. Lets go front row and then second row and then back there. One. Others 14 letter word that i havent, tsmc and when youre talking about taiwan as a strategic interest i would think that that would be one of the main reasons for taiwan being in such a interest particularly given the fact they are making a major investment but we should keep in mind at the percentage of the investment in the u. S. Is about as large as the taiwanese population. It is an asset for the world and why they would resolve to solve this dispute peacefully in the hopes that it would get access to the technology and talent that comes with tsmc and a lot of other companies that are worldclass. So that can be a stabilizing factor. I think it makes perfect sense for them to diversify a little bit. Kf mc has been one of the most conservative Taiwan Companies in transferring their technology and operations to china because they know those are the crown jewels and its better to keep them in taiwan or some other safe place. Yes sir. Comparing for the 2024 that is coming and all parties are considering their candidates. From europe is being the last of the United States and other words what kind of message that washingtons would like to hear from the candidates . Right before when i was the chairman we sent to get this message. Number one the United States has no preference. Its the taiwan voters who should decide what their leader is and whats important. At the leaders overlap and coincide with those in the United States. In terms of this election, i look at it a little more broadly and i think what is very important is that the taiwan voters. They are presented with two or maybe three policy approaches to the many different problems that taiwan is facing and that these policy packages be detailed, comprehensive, substantive and smart. The people of taiwan deserve to have a good choice. And if they are denied a good choice because of politics or other things, it would be a shame. Do you want to jump in . Its wonderful to have a representative laughing with questions. So there is hope. At a deeper level i would say its in americas interest for taiwan to have strong governments that provide hope for the future of taiwan. People asked me this question all the time. Stacy does not have a preference. We would like to have a leader in taiwan and the administration with us but we do not like surprises for just as taiwan does not like surprises from the United States. Went to have good consultations. Particularly given the risks now and the tensions in the Taiwan Strait peru just really want to have an administration that represents the opinions of its people as will be democratically elected. And we have been chattels. That will be the minimum. Cracks go to this side and then one for online. Never mind. All the way in the back. Folks i am author and editorial contributor on technology to the hill newspaper. Im sorry to drag you back into a discussion about a New York Times bestseller with but whether you are a news for the news hour for the president of the United States one of the issues in the back of everyones mind is how important is this discussion . The word should i devote one tenth of 1 to it or should i devote 10 of my attention to it . The end of that question really is what is your assessment of the present course and speed were not your preference but your assessment are present course and speed of likelihood taiwan will declare independence. China will militarily respond and the United States will militarily respond bring us into a war between the night stay tuned chided her it started put you on the spot. That is on the back of everyones mind. Is a combined question. The second or appear the gentleman is very patient thank you. It will come by the question for. Thanks so much for doing this but robert slaney. Quick question about the Biden Administration engaged in a lot of activity with japan, with south korea, with the philippines recently. What is come out with access to military bases in the philippines, japan upping the amount of military spending in last week the washington agreement with south korea. To what extent can we consider all of this deterrence in terms of china making a connecticut moving in taiwan . What extent is the deterrence without the reassurance we were talking about, thank you. 200 verse from . Okay. You take the first one will jump in on the Second Period the bottom line how close are we to work . Consume many scenarios that could lead to crisis. When you articulated is probably the least likely. That taiwan absently declares independence. I think it is more likely the developments internally in the poc potentially lack of trust in the United States the prc has. Maybe a prc assessment taiwan is heading towards independence. Whether it declares it or not. There are many different variables are china attack. I dont think of a star is declaration of independence. The Taiwan Strait is really the only potential trigger of a major war between the United States and China Nuclear project weve never seen go to work no confidence. Escalation could be controlled. This is the most worrisome scenario going forward. Certainly the prospects for war on growing. Not being more diminished. How much percentage of time do you spend i do not know. I think what needs to be done isnt effort by people lied about journalists, authors, people speak on these issues to bring facts to these issues and to bring some sense of sanity to have an informed debate on what is necessary in order to prevent that war from happening. Believes the three of us believe this is a war that is avoidable. Im sure you want to answer that but also about last word with the idea these regional moves abydos demonstration is worked hard on is quite proud of. And beijings perspective give preference to be to issue insulate taiwan. To deal fit on their own. They felt they can isolate the problems of that cent they can impose their will on people of taiwan. They do not like this being an annex of the u. S. China competition they really do not like i wont be embedded broader region or global framework. That means others around the world have a stake what happens in the Taiwan Strait. As richard observed this is abundantly a global issue in the fight administration is done a commendable job helping to turn taiwan thought into it annex of china competition but to an issue upon which countries around the globe have a stake in preserving peaceful stability in the Taiwan Strait. Us armor questions online but importantly i run out of time. I apologize to those who are on mine and i apologize for trying to ask a question here. One thing to try to do here is keep the ship on time so thank you very much for all of you for being here. 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