Secretary clinton represents the establishment. I represent, i hope, ordinary americans and, by the way, who are not all that enamoured with the establishment. I dont think it was particularly progressive to vote against the brady bill five times. I dont think it was progressive to give gun owners immunity or vote against ted kennedys immigration reform. Rose then the 50th super bowl between the Carolina Panthers and the Denver Broncos and who better to talk to than jim nantz of cbs sports. You know, they changed coaches which means they changed schemes and went from being a task heavy, shotgunbased offense where were going to dink and dunk and occasionally beat you down the field a little deeper than you expected through the passing game. Now they wanted to go physical and gary kubiak came back to denver. Hes a great coach. They were going to learn to dominate the line of scrimmage and be primarily a team that pounded you. To clayton had to change what his whole career would be like and it didnt click till he came back from injury in the season. H he brings respect to the locker room. Rose we continue with i. S. I. S. And libya and what the United States should do. We talk to Alan Kuperman, Frederic Wehrey and jeanmarie gueehenno. You have a very fragmented country. There are two competing governments which have no control over the whole country, and you have the Islamic State with the main strong hold in syria which used to be the strong hold of the caliphate, so at the moment theres an effort to bring all the various political actors together, but i believe its a long way off. Rose i. S. I. S. Is growing . I. S. I. S. Is growing. There are more fighters coming to libya. I. S. I. S. Has been attacking Oil Facilities and theres a fear that i. S. I. S. Could expand and thats why there is so much talk about the military option in libya. Rose politics, football and foreign policy, when we continue. Funding for charlie rose is provided by the following . Rose funding for charlie rose has been provided by rose additional funding provided by and by bloomberg, a provider of multimedia news and Information Services worldwide. Captioning sponsored by Rose Communications from our studios in new york city, this is charlie rose. Rose we begin this evening with with election 2016, the first oneonone democratic debate took place in New Hampshire last night. Hillary clinton and Bernie Sanders sparred over their records as progressives among other issues. This whole discussion began because i commented, not make an overall evaluation about the secretary. He was in ohio, i think, in september or november, and she got up and said something like, i have been paraphrasing i have been criticized because people think im a moderate. Well, i am a moderate. Thats where this came from. Thats where this came from, not me phrasing her, its what she said. There is nothing wrong with being a moderate but you cant be a moderate and a progressive. In terms of president obama, i think if we remember where this country was seven years ago, 800,000 jobs being lost every month, 1. 4 trillion deficit, the worlds Financial System on the verge of collapse, i think that president obama, Vice President biden and the democratic leadership in the house and the senate have done a fantastic job. We are in much better chain today nan seven years ago, although my republican colleagues seem to have forgotten where we were seven years ago. Thats the fact. But we still have a very long way to go. You know, in the very first debate, i was asked, am i a moderate or a progressive . And i said im a progressive who likes to get things done. And cherry picking a quote here and there doesnt change my record of having fought for racial justice, having fought for kids rights, having fought against the kind of inequities that fueled my interest and service in the first place, going back to my days in the childrens defense fund. It certainly didnt stop me from taking on the Drug Companies and the Insurance Companies before it was called hillary care i mean, before it was called obamacare, it was called hillary care because we took them on, werent successful but we kept fighting and got the childrens insurance program, and every step along the way i have stood up and fought and have the scars to prove it applause so, again, i think its important that look, i understand senator sanders is really trying to distinguish himself rose the next Republican Debate takes place this saturday. Abc news announced seven candidates would participate including donald trump and ted cruz. Joining me mark halperin, John Heilemann of bloomberg politics, gerald seib of the wall street journal, john cassidy of the new yorker magazine, glenn thrush, chief Political Correspondent for politico. Tell me what it looks like on the ground if terms of the conversation and what are the surprises we might expect . Well, on the democratic side, i think its a pretty broad agreement that senator sanders is ahead. Polls show him 30 ahead. No one thinks those are right but he does have a sizable lead. I think this has to do with what the margin is, how its framed by the press and candidates, if senator sanders leaves with a little or a lot momentum. People will look on Election Night to see if he dominates with young people, does he draw independents, et cetera. On the republican side, ive never covered a primary like this. There are six people fiercely contesting to leave here with some momentum. Donald trump is ahead still in all the public and private polling. The other campaigns believe he is vulnerable to not winning this big or maybe not at all and the one candidate who does have momentum thats clear is marco rubio and you have people like john kasich, jeb bush and Chris Christie who have been trying all week to find out how to stop the momentum rubio took out of iowa and brought here. Rose i assume that would be brought to bear tomorrow in the debate. This is probably the most important debate of the entire campaign because of its proximity to New Hampshire and those six candidates. I think everybody agrees not all six will go from New Hampshire to South Carolina in the next contest the republicans have. That debate will also feature choices to make. Do people go after the frontrunner donald trump who is leading here in most every state coming up or after ted cruz the winner of iowa or most likely look for ways to contrast themselves with marco rubio who is positioned to leave New Hampshire positioned third in iowa as not maybe the establishment favorite by the favorite for the nation depending on how he finishes and depending on whether the old rules apply. Rose second in New Hampshire gives him huge moment snm. Second here, first here or third here, if he finishes behind as he did in iowa, trump and cruz. Any of those three i think make him the clear establishment favorite which he had been edging becoming over the last few weeks and months as he moved up in the National Polls and many members of the establishment looked at christie, kasich and bush and decide they didnt want to bet on them. Rose John Heilemann, what happened in last nights debate that night affect the democratic side . Charlie, i dont think much in the sense that nothing changed the fundamental dynamics of the race in New Hampshire. There was a lot of pyrotechnics on the stage last night. It was a very fun, interesting, luminating, dramatic, electric debate, having Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton on stage together one on one for the first time in this race. When i say all those things in the sense that i think, for a democratic voter who wanted to understand the clear, distinct differences on policy and on philosophy that divide the two of them, and there are many, they were made more clear and drawn in chapper relief than any point in this race so far. There was a half hour where two of them went one on one in a way a lot of people wish most debates were mostly talking about Campaign Finance but mostly their theory of change. If you were watching as a democratic voter you could get what was the difference between Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders. But there wasnt a big moment that changed the fundamental contours of this and suddenly made Bernie Sanders lose momentum or Hillary Clinton gain. So i think hes been ahead for a long time here as mark suggested and i think hes still ahead here in the same way after last night. Rose glenn, what did you think about last night . Well, you know, whats interesting is there is really no race here. I frankly have been wondering for about a week why the Clinton Campaign has been playing this as if there is an actual o contest. Were trying to determine how much shes going to lose by. What i thought was interesting last night is both of them were speaking to their biggest vulnerabilities nationally. Hillary clinton has been campaigning here today. She campaigned with a bunch of female surrogates. She was really speaking to the issue specifically about her role as a gender pioneer, as a breaker of glass ceilings and Bernie Sanders who obviously has issues with latino and black voters was talking a lot about flint, michigan. I think what were seeing with New Hampshire is in the absence of a really redhot contest, it is essentially being used as a way for both of these candidates through free media to speak to the voters directly about what they perceive as their vulnerabilities in an attempt to shore them up. Enough is enough. If you have something to say, say it directly, but you will not find i ever changed a view or a vote because of any donation that i ever received. And i have stood up and i have represented my constituents to the best of my ability, and im very proud of that. Rose gerald, you said in the democratic debate it was a contrast between clinton the doer and sanders the dreamer. Who benefits from that definition . You know, im not sure, but i was up in New Hampshire for the debate. I was in the hall. I agree it was electrifying in the sense of actual political theater and i dont know that it changed anybodys votes either but i think it defined the difference in the way i tried to describe it this morning. The Hillary Clinton pitch is im a realist, an achiever, i get things done, i get out progressive goals and achieve them, Bernie Sanders dreams about them and doesnt have a clue how to get there. Bernie sanders says essentially if you dont dream big, you dont change things. We have been listening at the washington establish meant to chip away at things, you need a revolution. You cant have a clearer contrast in styles and approach other than that. You get to pick which you want but you do get a choice in the democratic primary. New hampshire was friendly territory for Bernie Sanders. That hasnt changed. I think people are playing hard in New Hampshire because they want to reduce the margin of victory for Bernie Sanders in that state and if they do that the narrative will be she did better than we thought, on to friendlier country for clintons in the south and nevada and thats a new ball game, so i think theyre trying to shape it in a way to make it better for people who want to vote for Hillary Clinton in the end. Rose whats the new populous. Bernies obviously burst on the National Scene in the last few months, but i think you have to go back a bit to see where he comes from. I think there is been a populous movement growing for about a decade, starting with the Antiwar Movement in 2003 and 2004, then after the financial crash, the occupy wall Street Movement gained very popular, seemed to disappear but really didnt disappear. The young progressives were that, Elizabeth Warren took up the mantel for a while but decide not to run. Bernie sanders enhearted what i call the new poplism which we see in other countries, the rejection of establishment parties like you had in greece, spain, in the u. K. To some extent, and now we have an american version of this poplism. Rose how strong a movement is the new poplism . I think theyre trying to drag the Democratic Party as far left as they can. Then there are a new group, mostly young, not previously drawn into politics, being drawn into the Bernie Campaign and feeling the berne. Rose mark, who could drop out after the New Hampshire primary . Obviously depends on who wins and loses, but who has to do well in New Hampshire or do better than expected to stay in the race . Well, based on resources and attitude and poll position, i think governor christie is probably the most vulnerable though pushing as aggressively as anyone. Most to have the public and private polling is in sixth place. If governor christie doesnt improve his lot he would tell you. Jeb bush is interesting. His chances to finish in the top two or three at this point dont look great, although i dont rule it out. But he and others suggested he will go to South Carolina where the bush name means a lot, his superpack has a lot of money. Trump, barring huge collapse, trump, rubio goes forward and leaves john kasich. Kasich will look more surprised. Hes one who because hes not running a particularly negative campaign, because he appeals to independents, spent a rot of time on the ground, he may move up but if he doesnt he made it clear at breakfast the other day that he, too, will think of getting out. Bush, kasich and christie are the main ones you may see have to make tough decisions after tuesday night. Rose donald trump, did his nonappearance in the debate leading into Iowa Caucuses and the fact that he did not do as well as expected in the Iowa Caucuses do anything to slow him down in a way that might not be decipherable in the poll results . If youre up here on the ground, there is no doubt that all the other republican campaigns, there is a sense that trump and private data, everyone has a sense that some of the air has come out of the trump balloon. The public data doesnt show it much and he is still in the lead by all accounts but he is clearly deflate ago little bit. Theres a political and psychic element with trump. I think it matters a lot if he wins or doesnt. If he finishes second or rubio surpasses him, you could see a lot of air come out of that bubble real quick. If you look at what happened in iowa, the core trump vote didnt diminish, it just didnt grow. The late breakers moved to cruz or rubio. If you look at New Hampshire, i dont think that core trump vote is going anywhere, but a lot of New Hampshire people decide late. Almost half voters last time around decided in the last week. Are the late breakers going to move somewhere else than trump . If thats what happens, the mass doesnt look so great. He can win but not impressively. Rose is he campaigning differently in iowa than i mean, in New Hampshire than iowa . More rallies, more appearances, more everything . First of all, hes not been in the state consistently since the Iowa Caucuses. Today he canceled an event because he got snowed out. He had to cancel a town hall meeting. Hes been doing more traditional New Hampshire smallscale for trump retail events here, both like visiting the Manchester Police headquarters yesterday, town Hall Meetings with a couple hundred people rather than multiple thousands. I think responding to criticisms that all he does is hold rallies, so hes going about things differently in the last few days. I think hell go back to the mega rallies to close this thing out. He clearly seems a little defensive and hes responding to a sense that everything he did in iowa didnt quite work. I totally agree with john. Its a trap. He got to where he was by being an undeluded commodity. He was going to be as brash as anybody. He was going to say to hell with the way the system worked. He tried it. When he skipped the fox debate, i think a lot of people in iowa viewed that as contempt for iowa. Have him do sort of conventional politician stuff is shrinking him down to size. I think in the long run hes contributing to his own deflation by changing his rule book. I think eventually you are going to see him revert to the same old trump because thats the thing that got him here. Rose whats the success of marco rubio at this point . What happened in iowa that might affect his own momentum . New hampshire . What is he doing . What are the issues propelling him forward . Well, its been my view, i think he is succeeding first of all by not being donald trump and, second of all, hes succeeding by being phenomenally disciplined. You know, the rap on marco rubio now is hes too mechanical and robotic, but he doesnt miss his mark. Every debate is a good for marco rubio, maybe not great but good, and hes got a message that cuts across three or four different lanes in the Republican Party. He can fish out of different ponds. That makes him singular right now in this field, and i think that works to his benefit. Rose where can he win a primary . Thats the great question, isnt it . And we dont know the answer to that question yet. I think under the right circumstances, its possible he could win here, South Carolina, michigan, ohio. Florida. If he could get the other establishment candidates out of this race, the mass sets up nicely particularly a threeway between trump and cruz. Hes being himself. Hes being likable, relatable, about the future, not engaging in attacks but pushing back when hes attacked. As we saw in iowa, hes good at surfing the wave and having success to get success. He has a skilled team around him, good at creating the perception of momentum and taking the actual momentum and making it more and building it up. So i think if there were another candidate in this race in his lane who were having success, we might see a different situation, but i think hes poised to do what he did in iowa which is to consolidate a lot of the vote in his lane and it was suggested he plays in several different lanes. There is something almost of a consensus among republican campaigns up here that trump is falling a little bit and rubio is rising quite a bit and that the question doing forward again, this is kind of consensus view among all the campaigns based on what theyre seeing in their numbers is marco rubio could bin the New Hampshire primary. The question is whether trump declined now which is small but steady and whether rubios momentum keeps going upward. The debate is going to matter a huge amount and the closing ads the campaigns put on this weekend but there is a chance the lines will cross and rubio could shock people and end up winning tuesday. The other thing is the other point, piggy backing on john, rubio has the most to gain from the other subsidiary candidates dropping out. He is likely to pick up 2 to 4 there, those numbers add up. I think one of the interesting story lines that will be developing at the debate is this rivalry between bush who used to be rubios mentor and rubio. I think bush will go after rubio hard. Theres been a suggestion in the rubio camp that bush ought to step aside so rubio can emerge as the consensus candidate to cruz. Rose any consent to bush. Very much in the negligent saturday night live does ms. Bush have any impact . Older women vote reliably here as elsewhere. I think theyre up for grabs a fair amount and i think jeb bush needs attention. Trump gets attention whenever he wants, rubio gets attention, cruz because hes aggressive. Just won iowa. Yeah, so youve got bush and kasich and christie struggling for attention and i think for one day jeb bush got attention and that the not nothing with just a week between iowa and New Hampshire. Rose what economic whats the difference in policy in terms of Economic Policy . Within the Republican Party . Rose yeah. There really isnt that much. Theyve so far adopted an Old Fashioned taxcutting strategy. Rubio is trying to distinguish himself a bit by expanding the earned income tax credit. Trump broke on trade. Hes saying hell impose tariffs which is a revolutionary thing for a republican to do. But the core tax policies are still reaganite. It will be interesting to see if trump got the nomination whether he would reverse course on that as well and be more populous. The polls show support for raising taxes on the risk and earned income tax expansion, a mark for which bernie and hillary are talking about. You would think trump wouldnt have anything against that but hes adopted a main stream tax policy and made everything about trade. Rose what is the argument about christie and bush and maybe kasich will make against rubio in the debate tomorrow night . Christie is making the most effective one now which is essentially whats the achievement, the record, the substance that makes this guy a plausible president. Theres an element coming from jeb bush as well. The boy in the bubble with the wonderful christie phrase to describe this in a nutshell, but thats the essential argument that this is barack obama, you know, redacts, which is to say freshman senator, impressive, but not much there and i think thats the best argument to make. The rubio response to that is essentially its a generational one and thats working in the democratic primary, there is an element in the republican primary as well. The other effective rubio response, is hey, guys, im the one who looks like i can beat Hillary Clinton in the fall and i think that has some resonance in the party as well. Rose i think electability has some resonance. Let me close asking about ted cruz. I read a column in the New York Times saying ted cruz really does have strengths in the long run. Whats his campaign fro from hee and are there that many evangelicals in New Hampshire to come to bat for him . Charlie, i think that even ted cruzs people would acknowledge there is a real feeling on his support here. No one, even the mott bullish on cruz think he can finished four, maybe third in the New Hampshire primary. But he gets a buyout of New Hampshire. He will be a main contender in South Carolina along with the winner of this race and maybe a couple of other people who come out of New Hampshire. But hes a guy because of the evangelical support and Tea Party Support and antiestablishment support he has, he will be in the grouping, the top three, whatever you want to call it, in South Carolina. In the march 1 s. E. C. Primary, hes done a lot of organizing and has a support and hes a player for the next three or four weeks unless somebody takes wind out of his sails down the line. Weve seen santorum, huckabee and paul exit, for ted cruz, its a dream situation, the opposite of what republicans usually face in the republican nominating contest. The cruz lane is now just cruz. You have the establishment lane crowded with trump floating in his own lane. Rose the takeaway is expectations, one, can rubio do better than expected and maybe even win and, secondly, does hillary have a possibility of exceeding expectations and narrowing the race in New Hampshire, maybe gaining 5 or 10 points beyond expectation . Is that the takeaway i should have here . Exactly. There is a reality and expectations game and theyre equally important now on both sides. I think if hillary comes within 10 points it will be seen as a relative victory for her. Rose and the clintons know how to say were the comeback girl. Thank you all very much. Rose super bowl 50 is almost here on sunday. The n. F. C. Carolina panthers will taken to the Denver Broncos. Led by cam newton, the panthers were the top scoring offense, facing the best defense and one of alltime best quarterback players in Peyton Manning, will happen in levi stadium in santa clara, california. 180 Million Viewers are expected to be watching around the world. Joining me on the phone from pebble beach is jim nantz. He will announce the fourth super bowl for cbs for him. Pleased to have him back on the program. Thank you for doing this. I know this is a busy time for you. Any time with you is a good time, charlie. We have a little tradition going talking on the eve of super bowl broadcast. So im very, very excited and honored to be back with you. Rose i want to make a couple of points. Im showing to my audience a picture of you and your lovely wife courtney on your left and two daughters and your new son, Jamison George nantz. And there was some notion he might be born a little bit later, which would have made it a problem. Yeah, he was born on monday, and thank you for that. He was born monday, february 1. What a way to start super bowl week. And, yes, courtney is there with our little baby girl finley, and i have our oldest daughter caroline and there is jamison. He was due three days after the super bowl game. We have been fretting about this for seven months what are we going to do . And lo and behold, monday as im getting set to leave the house and make the twohour drive to San Francisco to begin super bowl prep, you know, courtney says, huhoh, i think my water broke. I think i may be going into labor. Ten hours later, we had our first son. What a blessing. Rose congratulations. Also congratulations, this is the 50th super bowl. Youre there. It was the 50th ncaa final four, you were there. It was also the 50th masters when Jack Nicholas won at age 46. Yeah, maybe the most memorable Golf Tournament of all time, jacks epic sixth green jacket and that was my first masters broadcast. 30 masters broadcasts ago for me back in 1986. I didnt realize at the time it was the 50th. Kind of stumbled across the fact ive now gone with the 50, 50, 50 club and it means a lot to me to say i was there for these golden anniversaries. If this was anything like the 50th masters or the 50t 50th final four i broadcast in 1998 when Danny Manning and jayhawks made the run, well be in store for a great game sunday. Rose how do your colleagues see this game in terms of the matchup and this great offense and unique player cam newton and all of his athleticism and his ability and his football savvy and his size and his capacity to pass or run against a very good defense that shut down essentially i think touched him more than any quarterback this season, tom brady. Yeah, tom brady got hit a bunch by the denver defense last week and that has really been what has gotten the broncos to this point, theyve rode this incredible defense. But theyre going against a special talent. Hell be named the m. V. P. Saturday night, talking about cam newton. Hes just 26. Youve got to think this is first of multiple trips to the super bowl. Hes a tough guy to defend. Hes an exciting player to watch. I admire his talent. I also happen to like the joy with which he plays when hes on the field. Rose i do, too. People have tried to make a big issue out of the dab, the dance he does in the end zone and all that, but there is something to be said for someone out there wearing a smile on their face all the time and making a game feel like, you know, its a backyard game and youre a child and youre in love and you have this passion, youre in love with the game. Look, i dont see why anybody would have a beef with that, and cam, hes a special talent, i think hes a special person. Ive done a number of gamesnr through his five years, and its a big stage tomorrow. I dont think its going to be on sunday. I dont think its too big for him, but he is going to go against a defense that beat tom brady and the patriots twice, pittsburgh during playoffs, beat cincinnati when the bengals were one to have the best teams in the league. To break it down, i think were going to be in store for a lower scoring game that comes down to the wire. Who knows. This is the 50th one. Amazingly, charlie, there has never been an overtime super bowl game and maybe well have the first one on sunday. Rose panthers are a 6point favorite, i assume mostly because of cam newton. It is. I think also people have watched these two performances by carolina in the playoffs when they jumped out in front of seattle 310, held on to win after that because seattle made a comeback run at them in the second half. Nonetheless, they got off to this explosive start and turned around and had the same kind of start against arizona. A team i felt was maybe the most wellrounded team in the league this year but certainly got stumped hard by the panthers. I think a lot of it has to do with just the carolina looks like right now, its hitting on all cylinders on both sides. Rose i love the way they put this team together, too. They knew they had to go out and drafted first cam newton i thinu in 2011. They put together under their general manager really a very strong team. Theyve got the right coach for this team. It really has so much to make it an admirable team. It does, and i think its a team you know, everybodys looking to wear a chip on their shoulder when they take the field or the basketball floor and try to use that as an edge. Do i think this team, even though they come in here, thats a pretty sizable favorite, by the way, when you get to a super bowl game and one side is favored by six points. But they, at 17 and 1 on the year, i still dont think they have been given their due, maybe by those of us in the media who cover the sport. Its always been, yeah, theyre good but somebody else is better. And you really look at it, if they win on sunday, they will be the fourth team to ever win the super bowl with one loss or fewer. Of course, the fewer being the miami dolphins, the one and only Undefeated Team to win a super bowl, but the bears of yesteryear, of 30 years ago a this past week, they were the last team to win with only one loss, before that the 49ers. Its been 30years since we had a one loss champion. They dont get put up in the challenge with the mike or much less even back in the undefeated dolphin days, they dont get talked about in the same breath, but if they win sunday, you can bet that context is going to be brought before the nation during our broadcast. Rose lets talk about number 18, Peyton Manning. Well, for peyton, everybody, you know, is trying to figure out is this the last rodeo, has he whispered a possibility into the year of tom brady and Bill Belichick walking off the field at the afc championship game. I dont have any insight to that, but playing a hunch here, i believe this would be it. Rose win or lose . Well, listen, if you win, you know, theres only been one hall of fame quarterback in the history of the game whos ever walked away and retired after nning the super bowl, and that was his boss john elway. If you think about all the other legendary quarterbacks, they didnt go out with the win in the last game. So it would be a fairytale ending. If he didnt retire after that, i think that would be a real mistake. Youve written the perfect script. Now, if he loses, i dont see tremendous downside for peytons legacy. At the end of the year, he had to come back from injury as a backup, gave the team a spark in the last week of the regular season, won the last game, big advantage, played turnover free as far as he wasnt picked off during the playoffs, he had one turnover to win against new england on the backwards pass, but he look, you know, a lot of people didnt see him being in this game, the way, you know, his season was going. I think in the end he turns 40 in march, a month away, and its been a magnificent ride for him, and i think it would be really hard to come back and try to figure youre going to be in the same spot next year. Rose what does he bring to the broncos . Well, first off, he has taken them all season. He missed six and a half games because of injury, but he had to come in and learn a completely different way of doing business. You know, they changed coaches, which meant they changed schemes and went from being a passheavy, shotgunbased offense, where were going to dink and dunk and occasion by beat you down the field a little deeper than you expected through the passing game. Now they wanted to go physical around gary kubiak came back to denver, hes a great coach, they were going to learn how to dominate the line of scrimmage and be primarily a team that was going to pound it at you. So now baiten had to change what his whole career has been like and it really didnt start to click till he came back from injury on the last week of the regular season. He brings leadership and respects to that locker room and i think its virtually rose you know what else he brings . I know you know this better than i do, but he brings intelligence to the line of scrimmage. Absolutely, more than anything. And i would just add to that, when he steps up after breaking huddle and he looks across the line, hes like a bobby fisher, a chess master who can look at the board that is, look at the defense and he can figure out exactly where the soft spot is in that defense and he changes on the fly. Thats why you see all the hand gestures and the audibles and all that, hes been able to read and identify a defense better than anybody in the history of the game and that is a huge strength to put his team in the right position. Rose my friend, thank you so much for joining us. This is a tradition i am proud to be part of. I look forward to the game you will call sunday. It should be great, as someone from North Carolina and has a certain affection for the panthers, at the same time i have an affection for excellence and Peyton Manning has certainly been that. Eth shoulthat. It should be a very special football game. I think it will live up to the hype and expectations that come with a milestone game like the 50th. I cant wait to call it and as far as im concerned the broadcast began with you. So thank you, charlie. Rose thank you, jim. Back in a moment. Stay with us. Rose we now turn to libya, concerns of mining over the Islamic States growing foothold in the country. U. S. Officials are reportedly weigh ago military respofnlts secretary of state john kerry addressed the situation in a conference in rome this week. As everybody knows, that country has resources. The last thing in the world you want is a false caliphate with access to billions of dollars of oil revenue. Rose joining me from washington is Frederic Wehrey of the Carnegie Endowment for international peace, Alan Kuperman of the Lyndon Johnson school of public affairs. Jeanmarie gueehenno, president of the International Crisis group. I am pleased to have them all here. Jeanmarie gueehenno, tell me te status on the ground in libya today. The status such a very fragmented country. There are two competing governments which have no control over the whole country, and you have the Islamic State with the main stronghold in syria which used to be the strong hold of caliphate, so at the moment there is an effort to bring all the various political actors of libya together, but i believe its still a long way off. Rose and i. S. I. S. Is growing . I. S. I. S. Is growing. There are more foreign fighters coming to libya. I. S. I. S. Has been attacking Oil Facilities and theres a fear that i. S. I. S. Could expand, and thats why there is so much talk about the military option in libya. Rose let me read today from the New York Times. Eric schmidt had a piece there and opened by saying president obama is being pressed by some of his National Security aids including top military advisors to approve the use of American Forces in libya to open another front against the Islamic State. But mr. Obama, wary of embarking on intervention in another Muslim Country told his aides to redouble efforts to help form a unity government in libya, at the same time the pentagon refines its options. How are they going to about trying to define and put together a unity government, frederic . Well, the factions have signed an agreement that was brokered by the United Nations in december. The problem, though, is that this government is really just a government on paper. It hasnt been able to exert its authority on the ground yet and i think thats the real concern in washington and other european capitals is who are they actually going to work with on the ground to combat the Islamic State. Rose and whats europe doing . The italians are very concerned about, because of their relationship to libya. Theyre absolutely part of the effort. My understanding is they are poised to help out with a possible stabilization force. I think the brunt of the counterterrorism effort, however, would be carried out by the british and the french. Rose the brunt of it and including the United States . Absolutely, and including the United States. Rose the president i mean, clearly, we all know and were familiar with his understandable desire not to be drawn into too deep certainly with combat troops and looking for what people call a kind of small footprint, what are the military options being presented to him, alan . Well, i think that hes made clear that there isnt going to be a big intervention of u. S. Combat forces on the ground and, in the absence of that, no country is going to put a large presence of u. S. Combat forces. So what youre talking about is the same mix that you see in iraq, syria and afghanistan, which is special operations forces, air power and drones, essentially. And the problem is that you need to partner with somebody on the ground, and as your other guests explained, there is no unified Libyan Military force to partner with. So if we partner with militia a, then militia b is going to view us as the enemy and theyre going to actually ally with the Islamic State and strengthen the Islamic State. So most people think that, if you really want to crush the Islamic State, first you need a unified government, then you need a unified Libyan Military, and only then can the western military intervention help that local military force actually destroy the Islamic State. In the absence of that, if we intervene, were basically just going to be hitting a hornets nest. Well scatter the Islamic State but not destroy the Islamic State. Rose so how do we get the unity government, then . Its really hard because the only reason that the opposing factions in libya are even thinking about a unity foft is because of the threat of i. S. I. S. If we go in and damage i. S. I. S. , the competing factions in libya will have less incentive to unify. So its a little bit of a game of chicken and its not that different from what was going on in iraq, the same sort of thing. If we had attacked i. S. I. S. With full force, then the government in baghdad would have had no incentive to make a deal with the sunni in iraq. Its a very similar sort of thing. You obviously dont want i. S. I. S. To seize large swaths of territory or oil fiends, but you oil fields, but you dont want to be the army that deindustries i. S. I. S. Because there will be no unification in libya and will actually foster i. S. I. S. In the long run. Rose National Security advisors and those advising some response in the organization of a unit government have to be fearful of what i. S. I. S. Might do. How do they see the threat . Well, i think i. S. I. S. At the moment does not have the capacity to have a major expansion. What we have seen recently of i. S. I. S. Is that they have attacked Oil Facilities, but its hit and run operations, its suicide bombers. A major ground offensive, i think its hard to see. What could happen, and there are some places in libya with very weak forces where i. S. I. S. Could attack, but i agree with the previous speaker, the war against i. S. I. S. Is not going to be won with bombs. Its going to be won by people who are on the ground and prepared to fight and those people have to be libyans. When you look at the politics today, they are very divisive figures. You have in the eastern part of libya, you have a general who is seen as antiislamists, but he doesnt have the capacity to defeat i. S. I. S. If you want to defeat i. S. I. S. , you need to peel off some of the islamest group. If you have a big military operation with bombings, you might have the opposite results. You might have people who join i. S. I. S. Instead of being peeled off i. S. I. S. So i understand president obamas hesitation. Rose some people argue that including Vladimir Putin that this is the problem with overthrowing the Libyan Government and supporting it the way we did. I think even bob gates was opposed to doing what we did at that time. Is there some resonance in that argument when his historians lot whats happened in libya . Alan . Anyone. Yeah, certainly. This libyan situation, unlike iraq and afghanistan where president obama could argue this was a negative legacy left to him by his predecessor george w. Bush, the libyan catastrophe is of president obamas own making. Here was a country that was led by a leader that was actually an ally in the war on terror. It was not a perfect country. It was reforming, and but it was not a safe haven for terrorists, and what president obama did is he went in and he adestroyed libya. He created anarchy. He created a failed state and, in that vacuum is where i. S. I. S. Comes in and presents a threat not only to the region but u. S. National security interests. The great irony is president obama ran his campaign in 2008 or the main part of his campaign was criticizing president bush for destroying iraq and creating a threat to the region and National Security. And eight years later president obama did almost the exact same thing in libya. Its being historians will puzzle over for decades. Rose there were a whole lot of threats coming from gadhafi that he was going to go to benghazi and kill everything in sight. The french were arguing we had to go in on humanitarian grounds, and i think the president had some advisors saying you have to do this on humanitarian grounds at the time. He did indeed, most prominently susan rice and Samantha Power was saying there was an insipient genocide in benghazi. Even some of us at the time thought this was unlikely to be the case, but now that we have more and more evidence, we have a u. N. Investigation of what was going on, it is clear that gadhafi was not repeat not targeting civilians. He was targeting rebels, and the war was about to come to an end because the rebels were losing and were about to be chased out of the country. At that moment the rebels said if we can claim there is going to be a genocide, we can get the u. S. And n. A. T. O. To come in, intervene on our behalf, overthrow gadhafi and well have our own country. Unfortunately, president obamas advisors including Hillary Clinton fell for that propaganda and the president fell for that propaganda. Its like the whos on. We should not get fooled again. Rose but there is a great sense, people are arguing in washington that theyve got to do something now. You cannot allow i. S. I. S. To grow because to have the oil revenues that are possible there and all of that, that youve got to do something. Thats the argument of the moment, is it not . Yeah, and i think the real mistake in 2011 wasnt necessarily the military operation, it was the absence of a political followup. Rose right. And today we run the risk of making the same mistake. Rose and the whole notion is gadhafi the notion is what kind of government can you build in libya. And the focus on the hardwear, the focus on the bombs i think makes people forget about what can be done on the politics, and on the politics, much more can be done. I would say libya was never a real country. Its a combination of tribes. And if you want to have political success in libya, you need to work from the bottomup. The situation in benghazi is not the situation in syria, is not the situation in tripoli, and thats what you need really to work out. To be honest, i think there is been a bit of neglect of libya in the last two years and that needs to change. Rose frederic, my impression is that the president go ahead, you may want to comment on that before i come back to you. Libya, under gadhafi, there were no real estate institutions so there was no state to destroy. The army was virtually nonexistent under gadhafi so i think the real problem was not necessarily the decision to intervene which was not, you ague, was the europeans ass arab well, but the followup. There was the crucial first year where i think the International Community and the west was so focused on helping libya with elections that they neglected the the security situation. They neglected the buildup of the militias, building a strong army and police, the spinal cord that you really need to ensure a successful democracy was neglected and comes to me from acknowledgements of the United Nations and other dimmatics, so thats the real problem, but we are where we are now and i think the real challenge was, as stated, building viable institutions a government, police, democratic rule of law i mean, these are the things that are going to ensure extremism doesnt come back, and the Islamic State cannot be defeated through bombs alone. Rose but and, obviously, the president understands that and has said that often in forums about the whole campaign against the Islamic State and defending what hes done in syria. Yet, at the same time i mean, hes concerned about i. S. I. S. And hes concerned about i. S. I. S. s territory because territory is a recruiting tool for i. S. I. S. Right. Rose and the idea becomes, you know, what kind of footprint footprint, what kind of military operation without socalled boots on the ground and all of that, so what kind of footprint could he do that might have some impact, whether its commandos, special forces, whether its some kind of paramilitary c. I. A. , whether its advisors working with i think what is going to transpire, if it does, is commandos working with militias. And i absolutely agree with the other speaker that there is a huge risk when you start partnering with militias that youre going to further fracture the country and create warlordism. But i think what they may be calculating is they will only give assistance to factions on the ground that support this new unit government. So the president probably believes and i think his advisors are saying we cannot wait for a libyan army to form because it could be years, it could be a decade. They cant wait that long to have a credible partner on the ground, so theyre going to war with whatever they have on the ground and try to mitigate the damage to unity and political stability. Rose how long before you think well see a decision by the president . I dont know what the calculus is on this. I firmly believe theyre really trying to get a settlement, to get this unit government to agree on the formation of its military structure. The real sticking point, going back to your other speaker, is the inclusion of this general in the east considered a rogue general by many quartz that has launched his campaign and very polarizing, so the question about what do you do with him is really holding up the formation of this unit government. Rose you were one of the people quoted in the New York Times article. Right. Rose is there Division Within the administration about this . I mean, the military the secretary of defense and the chairman of the joint chiefs seem to be the people recommending a military response. Is there division at the National Security council and within other advisors to the president at state or wherever they might be . Im not aware of that. I dont know that, no. Rose okay. So essentially what the president said, i hear the problem, give me more options and lets see what we can do about getting behind some kind of unit government. I think thats right. The militarys job is to prepare for contingency. We know there are reports of special ops troops on the ground figuring out who they can work with and theyve probably given the president a menu of options andeth up to him to decide when to execute. Rose for more about this program and earlier episodes, visit us online at pbs. Org and charlierose. Com. Captioning sponsored by Rose Communications captioned by Media Access Group at wgbh access. Wgbh. Org the following kqed production was produced in high definition. [ music ] its all about licking your plate. The food was just fabulous. I should be in psychoanalysis for the amount of money i spend in restaurants. I had a horrible experience. I dont even think we were in the same restauran