Going to lose. Tonight, our bipartisan list of the candidates we cant believe have a real shot at winning. Senator jackson claims to be for the people. All in starts right now. That comment is not politically correct. Good evening from new york. Im chris hayes, its election have no america which means tomorrow is election day and millions of people across the nation are greeting that news with a giant collective shrug. That thick line at the bottom, the blue one there, that is the interest in tomorrows elections charted against the previous two, which, as you can see, is much, much lower than it was in either of the last two midterms, and i get it. Are watching the least Productive Congress in u. S. History, it is in fact hard to get invested in the used that four or five senate seats changing party will make that much of a difference. So, i think a lot of people understandably have come to the conclusion that it doesnt really matter what happens tomorrow. The next two years will be the same more or less no matter what, and it is tempting to believe that. But it is not true. In fact, it is a dangerous dilution because which party controls, United States senate, matters a lot. Its four of the Nine Supreme Court justices in that photo there are over the age of 75. So there is a very real actuarial possibility of a vacancy on the court in the next two years, and the senate needs to confirm whoever fills that vacancy, which means tomorrow the Supreme Court, a third the branches of the u. S. Government, is then oballot and not. Should add, the Supreme Court in some abstract sense that building there with the columns and the justices firing questions. There are specific big cases we already know about right now that are very likely headed to that building you see there on the screen. Like the case, for instance, that threatens to destroy the new obamacare insurance exchanges in 36 states. Or the case that it will decide whether texas can potentially disenfran chines some 600,000 voters, many over them black and latino, under the states new voter i. D. Law, or the biggs case on abortion rights since roe v. Wade was decided to determine if its okay for states to regulate abortion clinics out of existence, as texas has just done, passing a law that shutterrerred 80 of the clinics. So Voting Rights not just in texas but across the south and throughout the country, abortion rights not just in texas about throughout the country, theyre headed to the court and the court is on the ballot tomorrow which means all of those are very much on the ballot tomorrow. Also up for vote tomorrow, the way the government spends money. Which sounds banal or whatever but is more important than you might think. The real victory have 2010 tea party wave, let us recall the wave brought into power during the last midterms when conservatived voted in far greater numbers than liberals and progressives, the greatest victory of that election was take together hatchet to the part of the government that spends money on public goods and people who dont have much power. The congress produced by that election, congress cut 8. 7 billion from the food stamp budget. The National Institutes of health alone lost 1. 71 bill during sequestration, process put into play in 2011 after those conservatives were elected. Those cuts, they were big and real, and they might just be the start. Because if republicans control the senate theyll have two key pieces of leverage the night time they want to go after programs they dont like and cut them. Theyll be able to pass spending bills with a simple majority through a process known as reconciliation, and that is important because it means they dont have to meet the 60vote filibuster threshold. Hey they just need a simple majority. Number two, they will be able to control the amendment process which sounds on secure and boring but is the most powerful thing you can do in the United States senate, because they can add whatever they please to a spending bill and send it right to the president s desk, and the president will then be presented with a choice, veto a bill chockfull of g. O. P. Amendments and thereby risk a big messy Government Shutdown that hurts millions of people, many of the people that are his supporters, or sign a bill chockful of g. O. P. Amendments and do damage to his agenda and americans who are counseling on him. This isnt my pet theirry. Mitch mcdonnell made a proke preliminary to do exactly, presizely what im describing if republicans get a Senate Majority tomorrow, saying, obama, kuwait, needs to be challenged and the best way to do that is threw a funding process help has to make a decision if theres more he likes than dislikes. Like adding re lakeses to the epa. The regular layings on coalfired power plants the most important thing the government is doing right now. The biggest part of the obama domestic policy legacy since he was rodriguez elected and those regulations are set to reduce emissions and could permanently alter the trajectory of American Power generation towards renewables and away from coal and the Carbon Pollution that is threatening mass catastrophe and all civilized life, and that, that signature achievement, hangs perilously in the balance. Thats very much on the ballot tomorrow. The republicans have told you it is. Joining me now is senator shell don whitehouse. You work in the United States senate. I want to hear from you, given the fact that very little seems to get dub, given nance consent, the filibuster, all the way from the minority to block and obstruct, how much does it matter for Sheldon Whitehouse when he wake up the day after the republicans control the senate and goes into work . Well, it matters a lot. I sit, for instance, on the environment and public works committee, and having Barbara Boxer be the chairman of that puts news a very good direction. Having jim inhave from oklahoma, who claims that the entire Climate Change thing is just a big hoax, having him in charge, that really changes things for the worse. When the gavel changes, the ability not only to control legislation but to investigate changes, and one of the things we can clearly see coming is the intention of the republicans to torment the president , either with the kind of mishmash of poison republican pills attached to mustpass legislation, that you talked about, or just flat out investigations, candidates or using the word prosecute about the president and you can get a sense where theyre likely to go. Those are two of the things they can do. Walk me through this in the more granular fashion. Talking about inhofe as the chair of the committee, guy who is probably the number one climate denier in all of congress, very proudly so, says its a hoax, a big sort of cause of his to deny the scientific consensus. What does it mean when epa appropriations come up . What can he do holding that gavel to actually impact the agenda . Well, he can refuse the easiest thing is to refuse to reauthorize epa because the chairman has a lot of discretion about what goes forward. Once the substance of something comes the committee, then every senator has a bit of involvement but where the really strong stoppers are for them is without a Committee Chairman you really cant get a bill out of committee, and if you cant get a bill out of committee to the floor, the only way to bring it to the rule is under rule 14, where the majority leader brings it directly to the floor and with a republican majority leader you wont get it that way either, so you can shut down legislation. You can imagine a scenario, not far fetched particularly republicans of have been railing against the epa regulation saying were not going to reauthorize the epa until you tell them to stop doing this and to hold it hostage. They could bill a undo the restrictions on carbon coming out of existing power plants and attach it to, say, the highway bill, and just dare the president. What are you going to do . Shut down the Highway Program . And i think theyre less avers to government being broken because of the nature of their philosophy. So if they break it, i think they mind less. Even though its our american government. And particularly in the environmental area. Bear in mind on the house where they control it already, they have passed more legislation attacking environmental regulations than theyve passed to repeal obamacare. Theyve actually jives you think they hate obamacare a bigger gettish of theirs. Absolutely. Lets talk about the judiciary. Youre someone who has been passionate about this, has been outspoken, i think it often can feel abstract and remote because were not just talking about the Supreme Court, although the possibility of a vacancy exists but the entire jude dish area federal judiciary, faceless group of people, as we have seen in the Affordable Care act case, all of that which came up through the lower courts, the decisions can last for 60, 70, 100 years if you get bad court decisions. And remember, the republicans in the senate, even when they were in the minority, were so obstructive and so objectionable about the president s nominees that majority leader reid was forced to change the rule so that we could clear judges at least below the Supreme Court level by a simple majority vote, and then they all had fits that had taken place so you know that in the majority they would shut down the president s judicial appointees unless they met a test of rightwing conformity that this president i think would not be comfortable with. Senator Sheldon Whitehouse, thank you very much for your time today. Appreciate it. Thank you, chris. Good to be with you. The big storyline of this election is republicans possibly gaining control of the senate, as i just mentioned. Isnt as simple for them to do that theres a catch and nate silver will be here to break it down. A 2. 7 gigahertz turbo processor. Kevlar fiber durability. 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Call Liberty Mutual for a free quote today at see Car Insurance in a whole new light. Liberty mutual insurance. The prize for the most disturbing election merrill in its come bepettive race goes to a Political Action committee in alaska and will seriously creep you out. And its perfectly legal. More on that ahead. [ narrator n to get richard to his campbells chunky soup. Its new chunky beerncheese with beef and bacon soup. I love it. And mama loves you. And mama loves you. [mony mony by billy idole she cokicks in on car stereo]y. Dont stop now come on mony come on yeah i say yeah yeah yeah yeah yeah yeah yeah cause you make me feel like a pony so good like your pony so good ride the pony the sentra, with bose audio and nissanconnect technology. Spread your joy. Nissan. Innovation that excites. [singing] mony mony you know. Theres a more enjoyable way to get your fiber. Try phillips fiber good gummies. Theyre delicious and an excellent source of fiber to help support regularity. Mmmm. These are good the tasty side of fiber. From phillips the bat 8 for the senate is right now according to that forecast, more up for grabs than the presidency was in 2012. So this election cycle i much closer than that one. At heres comparing them using the same model. The possible path for the republicans to gain control and the democrats are is growing clear with open seats expected to go republican, the g. O. P. Needs to pick up three out of step close races, ones in yellow to reach a majority of 51 seats. All seven seats are held by a democrat right now. If a republican wins in three of them the g. O. P. Is highly likely to get the 51seat majority. But theres a catch. Runs might lose a seat in kansas, georgia, or maybe kentucky, and if republicans lost any of those three, theyd have to bin more than three of the seven seats in the democratic column. Joining me now, nate silver, great to have you here. You guys are projecting the most likely scenario is 53 republicans. 52 or 53, could be higher, could be lower but there are seven or eight races still in play. Were skeptical about kentucky. It looked better for grimes for a while but she is down by seven or eight points in the polls. Theres not a lot of history of candidates winning when theyre down that much on election day. Mark pryor in alaska, polls broke against him, too, so two states more certain for the g. O. P. Kentucky lets remove from the equation. Talk about the seven, right . The one that is most what would you say the kloseest of the democratic. The closest is kansas. You had the undecided vote has grown as election has gone on. Were not sure what is going to happen there. Kansas obviously is held bay republican incumbent, pat roberts, and you guys are projecting that as the closest race. 52 for orman, a potential so a coin flip. Part of what make that difficult to model theyre not a ton of precedent. One good thing is that states which are not ohio and pennsylvania are get something attention, and voters who have not had a competitive race have chance to make an impact the poll stores dont have that much practice surveying close races. Kansas is redleaning and where the polls stand and how those resolve is not clear. Kansas and alaska and louisiana, all these states that arent normally competitive are important. Lets talk about alaska. A strange race. Begich got in over ted stevens when he was indicted. He sneaked in there. A tough race against the a. G. Dan sullivan but its been difficult to get a good finger on the pulse because theres not a ton of pulse. People complainve iowa, fivepoint range in alaska you have 20 range. The one thing to keep in mind is historically, republicans have done better than their polls in alaska on election day and the fact that democratic incumbents are likely to lose in arkansas but he supposedly invested more per capita annie candidate in history. When you look at building this model you have the average of polls. Anybody can do that. Now the other question is do you look at the history of these states in which on a statebystate basis, whether one party or other seems to outperform its final polling. Partisanship is a powerful variable. We rev has found that in red states republican does bert in polls on Election Nights than democrats in say that again. In red states, republicans outperform their polling margin on Election Night bit a greater margin than democrats outperform their polling margin on Election Night. Right. But we dont have any blue state races. Its purple and red. So its tough for democrats. You dont necessarily expect Michelle Nunn in georgia, which is becoming more purple to perform toward the higher end of her polls, or states like alaska or arkansas. Its close enough where if you do have socalled skew in the poll, then democrats could barely hold on. Theres a big question about the turnout machine. One place is in alaska and also in georgia. Theres been a lot new registrations in georgia. Michelle nunns polling average is two or three points down, its a red state. How do you cant for possible changes in who the voting pool is. We are hoping the pollsters do it for us and they have a lot of incentive to get things right. Sometimes theyre slowed by the cycles or overa react and the bias in polls bounces back and forth. Every state has different kirks, colorado has gone to nail voting. Never that hat occur statewide before. With that said, saying trust the polling average, and the best poll is the poll in iowa that has braley down by seven. What do you do on election day . Must be an exciting affair. Election days themselves are really boring because youveve already built the model. Sacrilege to talk too much until polls close. Were prepared for a long night because of the importance of alaska which doesnt close until 1 00 a. M. Eastern time, and then the g. O. P. Has 5775 chance to win eventually but might rear recounts, runoffs, and greg orman deciding who he wants to caucus with so might be an election week or mock but not election day. Theres a possibility of recount, so we dont know who wins, who greg orman is going to caucus with, and two states, georgia and louisiana could end up in runoffs. Its kind of like if when a jury is convening, a quick verdict means guilty. Democrats want voters to take as longing a possible the longer the night goes. The longer we have to wait for fishermen in alaska, the better chance for people for people to look for when they tune in. Thank you so much. With all the way donors can get around who they are and who theyre giving mow, to whats the point of having an agency that supposedly regulates money in campaigns . Ill ask one of the commissioners that runs that very agency next. Bring expertie from across ge, like lean process engineers we asked who does what, when, where, and why that step first . Ideas for improvement started pouring out. With a little help from us, they actually doubled their output speed. If you just need a loan, just call a bank. At ge capital, were builders. And what we know. Can help you grow. Hard it can be. How. To breathe with copd . It can feel like this. Copd includes chronic bronchitis and emphysema. Spiriva is a oncedaily inhaled. Copd maintenance treatment. That helps open my airways for a full 24 hours. You know, spiriva helps me breathe easier. Spiriva handihaler tiotropium bromide inhalation powder does not replace rescue inhalers for sudden symptoms. Tell your doctor if you have kidney problems, glaucoma, trouble urinating, or an enlarged prostate. These may worsen with spiriva. Discuss all medicines you take, even eye drops. Stop taking spiriva and seek immediate medical help if your breathing suddenly worsens, your throat or tongue swells,. You can get hives, vision changes or eye pain, or problems passing urine. Other side effects include dry mouth and constipation. Nothing can reverse copd. Spiriva helps me breathe better. Sfx blowing sound. Does breathing with copd. Weigh you down . Dont wait ask your doctor about spiriva handihaler. Into one youll never forget. Earn points for every flight and every hotel. More weed, less war. Get haugh, get high, vote john haugh. That acknowledge ad for haugh was brought to you by a nonprofit called the American Future Fund. Who are these hippies calling for more weed and less war . Theyre a selfproclaimed Advocacy Group theyre trying to tilt the North Carolina senate race in favor of republican tom tillis by siphoning off young vote friday kay haggan to sean hauga and if hag yan up less than a few points a few more votes for haugh could make a dis. Theyre a 5014c group, but the group received more than 92 of its revenues from two organizations connected to charles and david koch. A Spokesman Says they have not given American Future Fund any grabs in two years but without any diclosure requirement who knows. We dont know where the funding for the ad came from. Four and a half years after Citizens United outside money is playing a biggest role than ever in this election, on track to be the most expensive election in history, and almost half the outside spending in 11 top senate races, 207 out of 328 million, took place in october alone. And conveniently, the last federal reporting period for election spending ended october 15th. So any contributions made after that date dont have to be disclosed until the election is over, all of which means a small group of big donors could decide tomorrows outcome and we dont know who they are. I want to talk for a second about how this works. I still am a little unclear. I set up a 501 c 4 called americas future fund, right, or americans for americans being americanish. And you like that name . I do. Its good. Catchy. Somebody is going to pick it up. I think so. Americans for americans being americanish. And i can get 100 million checks written to me and i dont have to disclose donors. Deeps on what youre doing. The rules of the fec dont dependon your tax status. The question is it it a group whose major purpose is federal campaign activity, and if it is they ought to be registered with the fec and disclosing all donors. Heres the thing you. Find folks at the fec are the ones who mak the ultimate determination on the question. Aim right . Yes. You but. People work very hard seem to deadlocked 33on every single major question of precisely who falls into what category. Aim correct about that . It has been known to happen. Which means basically, its kind of a lawless frontier of craziness out there. You are dead lock on all the major issues, the rulings of do you have to file, when you have to file, and aim right, the election law seems tangled and unclear at this point . Election law is complicate expelled the Supreme Court created that application indication in Citizens United the court held that independent spending can not cause corruption. The Supreme Court also held at the same time that disdisclosure is important for voters,craft an informed electorate and people will be held accountable for the money. But in this election were seeing, as you point out, an increasing number of outside groups who are swamping the ad campaigns to the point where they outside spenders are spending more than they candidates. Some groups do disclose and other groups not so much. Right. So, heres the thing. Even if i create this group that i dont have to disclose my money. Americans for america, and we get our big 100 million check from some keeping credit donor. I can turn around and give that to a super pac, right . And ive basically anonnized the donation. Wiped the fingerprints off the gun. Isnt that true . Well, that has been happening, and the commission has deadlocked on some of those issues and some are going to court. People who file complaints can sue us if they dont think were properly enforcing the law. I think we should be doing more and groups are suing us and its going to end e end enin courts but wont be resolved before tomorrow. Heres the writing on the wall. You said that outside groups are swamping candidates spending. Isnt that just going to continue to be the case . Because the regulations are so much looser on outside spending. You can raise huge raise 10 million chunks as opposed to doing 2,600 checks at a time. Wont it clearly be the case even by 2016 that the outside groups are running the election and all the regulated fear of stuff, the stuff that is disclosed, that is limited, that was part of that only post watergate reforming are thats going to be a tiny share of what elections are actually about. Well, it could go down that path but doesnt have tonight. Have long felt theres a deal to be had on capitol hill if people want to make one. That would involve increasing contribution limits for parties and for candidates who are the most transparent and most accountable actors in the system and at the same time ensuring that we get real disclosure of the big money players at all levels. How . Similarly, at our commission there are more things we could do to increase disclosure. We are right now accepting comments, and i hope well get lots and lots of comments on this dirks. Heres the problem, though. The Supreme Court has no interest in that. That 54 majority that decided Citizens United and mccutcheon as well, knock down the individual giving limits, they my underring is a lot of them from oral arguments think you have a constitutional right to give anonymously to these groups. I think youre wrong about that, chris. By an 81 margin the Supreme Court has been very strong ton the importance of disclosure and we could do more even at the ec if we get the comment wes need persuade colleagues who are not so persuaded right now we need to do more. I would really welcome all of your listeners to send us comments, google commissioner they can find the link to the comment page on our web site and well really love to hear from them. I think the American Public is in a very different place from decisionmakers in washington, dc are right now. And we in washington need to hear from the American Public on this. Thats a good point. Hall len weintraub, thank you. Dont forget to vote. If you think your job is frustrated, imagine being a federal elections commissioner. The worst candidate on the ballot tomorrow that will probably win, including my own personal nominee, thats next. T on what matters today. At axa, we offer advice and help you break down your retirement goals into small, manageable steps. Because when you plan for tomorrow, it helps you live for today. Can we help you take a small step . For advice, retirement, and life insurance, connect with axa. For advice, retirement, and life insurance, i haits tough, but severive managed. Ease. But managing my symptoms was all i was doing. So when i finally told my doctor, he said humira is for adults like me who have tried other medications but still experience the symptoms of moderate to severe crohns disease. And that in clinical studies, the majority of patients on humira saw significant symptom relief. And many achieved remission. Humira can lower your ability to fight infections, including tuberculosis. Serious, sometimes fatal infections and cancers, including lymphoma, have happened; as have blood, liver, and nervous system problems, serious allergic reactions, and new or worsening heart failure. Before treatment, get tested for tb. Tell your doctor if youve been to areas where certain fungal infections are common, and if youve had tb, hepatitis b, are prone to infections, or have flulike symptoms or sores. Dont start humira if you have an infection. If youre still just managing your symptoms, ask your gastroenterologist about humira. With humira, remission is possible. Im sure you know what this meeting is about. Yes, a raise. Im letting you go. I knew that. You see, this is my amerivest managed. Balances. No. Portfolio. And if doesnt perform well for two consecutive gold. Quarters. Quarters. Yup. Then amerivest gives me back their advisory. Stocks. Fees. Fees. Fees for those quarters. Yeah. So, im confident im in good hands. For all the confidence you need. Td ameritrade. You got this. Thover 65 million years ago. Rth like our van. Yeah. We need to sell it. Hi. Need an appraisal . Yeah. We do. Vo when selling your car, start with a written offer, no strings attached. Carmax. Start here. Just finally, before we let you go we havent had a chance to tub this is only about the president. What debt so, congressman, does not want to talk about some of the allegations concerning his campaign finances. We wanted to get him on camera but he refused to talk to you about that. Back to you. [inaudible] [bleep] [inaudible] ill break you in half like boy. Thats how the year began for congressman Michael Grimm. Threatened to throw the local reporter off the balcony after the report hatt had the temerity question him about a federal investigation, few months later he was indicted. Facing a possible prison sentence, you reside think grimm would be facing a tough bid for reelection but today he found himself among the lucky few to make this list. Eight candidates we cant believe might actually win. Not only is it looking like grimm will be reelected, it is looking like he will be reelected by a wide margin. The latest polling has grimm besting his democratic challenger by 19points. If he comes in at 20 he can go a solid point for every indictment tomorrow. Recchia bagged about this Foreign Policy credits dep shalls, been to israel, been to many countries across the world. Responses like that may have prompted the New York Daily News to openly root for Michael Grimm to win reelection and then good to prison. The democrats fielded a candidate to ill informed that voting for a thuggish republican starts to make rational sense. Should he be convicted grimm will resign. Grim isnt the only republican or candidate to recently threaten physical violence thats don young, alaskas 21term at, large congressman. His race, even though young reportedly threatened his democratic opponent before a debate as dunbar recalled he snarled at me and said, dont ever touch me me. Last guy who touched me ended up on the ground dead. We have not gotten any firm denials from his office whether thats true or not. Despite that, and other recent comments young as has made, like telling a group in the Senior Center their government handouts have led to high suicide rates, looks like don young is going back to congress. And also governor paula page o maine. Seen threatening nurse kaci hickox, who tested negative for ebola, noting, were trying to protect her but she is not acting as smart as she probably could or should. He uses colorful language when he and another person dont see eye to eye. Senator jacks claims to be for the people, but he is the first one to give it to the people without providing vaseline. Without vaseline. Like a boy. So colorful. Its a tight threeway race but we have la page pulling all the victory, which defies belief. And another person is a democrat. He is my governor, andrew cuomo, man who has governed this great blue state of new york with a rerentless contempt for economic progressives and anyone on the left that dares to push him toward making this states economy more just and turning new york into the laboratory of progressive experimentation it should be all rights be. He has managed time and again to stiffarm, doublecross, and betray new york liberals and progressives also every opportunity. He seems to relish. Case in point the working families party. The party that can endorse democratic candidates. He barely won their endorsement over the opposition of many in the part fed up with his an ticks, after cuomo offered a series of prom mys including, the bare minimum of actually working to help get democrats elected to a Senate Majority in the state. Something youd think any democratic governor would want but not andrew cuomo. So no sooner had he gotten the working family partys endorsement he started backing out of all the promises he made and sought to destroy the same party. Cuomos campaign is urging voters to cast his ballot not under the working families line which ensure the Progressive Party gets a ballot line and retains political power, but under a new third party the cuomo camp crated called the womens equality party. You can see, wfp, wep, how voters can be confused and that appears to be fine with andrew cuomo. Cuomo denied taking revenge on the working families party, calling that tortured political thatsing but almost certainly going to win tomorrow, leaving progressives in new york who are ticked off at cuomo few good options. Vote for the green party candidate, wont win, vote for the republican who isnt going to win, or vote for andrew como on the line that the progressive working familys party go endorsed them and then watched as he tried to destroy them. And alas that whats ill be doing tomorrow, as much is a find the situation maddening. This is all a very good reminder that politics doesnt again and end with who you vote for. Casting that vote is just the beginning. Theres a lot more work to do right after you cast it. Ng new . Ng new . Feel that in your muscles . Yeah. I do. Try a new way to bank, where no branches equals great rates. For over 19 million people. [ alex ] transamerica helped provide a lifetime of retirement income. So i can focus on what matters most. [ female announcer ] everyone has a moment when tomorrow becomes real. Transamerica. The hottest trend this Campaign Season in vote shaming. More on that next. To take their medications regularly. So join us as we raise a glass to everyone who remembered today. Bottoms up, america. See you tomorrow. Same time. Another innovation from cvs health. Because health is everything. [mony mony by billy idole she cokicks in on car stereo]y. Dont stop now come on mony come on yeah i say yeah yeah yeah yeah yeah yeah yeah cause you make me feel like a pony so good like your pony so good ride the pony the sentra, with bose audio and nissanconnect technology. Spread your joy. Nissan. Innovation that excites. In alaska this year election mailers have gotten stockerrish. Check out this piece of mail. It asks, in big bold letters, what if your friends, your neighbors and your community, knew whether you voted . Mailer then list as series of names and shows whether or not they voted in past elections with a question mark under november 4, 2014. These socalled public shaming mailers, the Alaska Dispatch report work sent by a conservative group called the Opportunity Alliance pac in a move presumely designed to maximize republican turnout. One recipient said the only thing the 11 people lists on the letter had in common was they were her friends on facebook, which understandably seemed creepy to her. There are three important things to know about mailers like this, first, theyre perfectly legal. While who you vote for is private, whether you vote is accessible to anybody. This isnt just happening in alaska and not just done by conservatives. Its being used by both sides in a number of states, although the level of shaming seems to vary, the North CarolinaDemocratic Party sent out mailers noting that voting records are public and that the party is disappoint bid the inconsistent voting of your neighbors. The mailer stops short of naming names. And heres their third thing to know. They work. Evidence suggests theyre one of the most effective ways to turn people out for an election, as least so long thats dont make people too freaked out to vote. The mailers are based on experimentation that show that substantially higher turnout was observed by those receiving mailings promising to turn out their voting to their neighbors. Getting more of your people to the polls the crucial, central problem, that every political organizer loses sleep over, and its usually important especially for progressives because if the electorate look like the country, the government would lean more to the left. Right now, even though president obamas Approval Rating is low and republicans are widely expected to gain seats in the house and senate, the Democratic Party is far more popular than the g. O. P. Among registered voters. The republican favorable rating is underwater, but if a republicanleaning subset actually come out to vote, that fact doesnt matter. One method that has been used to improve voter turnout is to deploy celebrities and this year is no different. Lil john with the rock the Vote Public Service announcement. Turn out for what. Im darren and im turning out for education. Im e. J. And im turning out for mayor. Im turning out for reproductive rights. Heres the rather unfortunate punchline. The Washington Post did some smart homework and found out at lease five of the celebrities appear in the video, including the one dancing, did not actually vote in the midterms in 2010. Which is kind of funny and ironic, or maybe it suggests they learned their lesson and that people can in fact, change their voting behavior. When we come back, im going to talk to two people who spent countless hours trying to crack the code of voting behafr. What makes people do it . What makes them stay home . Theyll share what theyve learned ahead. A dry mouth can be a common side effect. Thats why theres biotene. It comes in oral rinse, spray or gel, so theres moisturizing relief for everyone. Biotene, for people who suffer from a dry mouth. Wow [ narrator ] on a mission to get richard to his campbells chunky soup. Its new chunky beerncheese with beef and bacon soup. I love it. And mama loves you. Alriwe need to do somethinguble and mwidifferent. Ranch. Callahans . 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Well, chris, thanks. Great to see you. Great to be here. Well, you know, its as we know, historically, Voter Suppression has been around from jim crow until today. Suppressing minority votes, you know, all across the board. And, unfortunately, were still were still dealing with that today. And, you know but wait. Let me ask you this. The thing here, right is it seems theres a tension between whats effective and what scans with peoples sense of whats acceptable. Theres evidence this sort of shaming actually works, right . But people react to it in a creepy way. As a political organizer, what do you do . Do you go with what you think works or listen to peoples sensibilities . I think you got to you got to work where people are, right . You have to really go out there and i think work with peoples sensibility, right . And so were talking about the midterm elections. I think its important to look at these low propensity and sporadic voters that are not known for coming out in the midterm election. Historically they come out for the president ial election and its very important to really figure out, how do you reach these voters. When i talk about sporadic voters, im talking about africanamericans, latinos, young people. I saw that you were playing that video. I think it was the rock the vote video. Clearly they are understanding that, right . They are part of the sporadic voter group that they are literally part of the sporadic voting so far. Some of them didnt vote in 2010. Sothey didnt vote in 2010 and in this midterm election, whats important in 2014 is making insumake ing sure those voters come out. Thats a really difficult task. Its an uphill battle. The thing thats fascinating about this question, theres this deep core social psychological question, which is how do you change human behavior. How do you get someone to switch their brand of toothpaste . Hundreds of millions of dollars over time go into that. What do you know . What does emilys list do to attack that problem . When one of the biggest groups of sporadic voters is young, especially single women and what weve learned is twofold. Women tend to distrust political communications. That means ads in mailers. They want to hear from sources they trust. Theres nobody they trust in their world moire than their friends and neighbors and family. Its important to post an facebook that youre going to vote. When people learn from people they love who understand what their lives are like that voting especial lie in the midterms matters a lorkts that really helps drive people up. I think the other thing we need to consider is that the issues are right for democrats this year. Really across the board. The electorate responds to the idea we need to raise minimum wage and gender discrimination in pay, access to health care. Were fighting a good issue battle right now. You can see from the ads republicans have chosen to close on where they are suggesting they are in favor of equal pay and may be kind of pro choice. They arent comfortable with their messaging. The louder we can spread our message and the more people we can get to the polls, the better progressives will do tomorrow. Let me ask this word of mouth question. Is there a way to scale that . To systematically scale word of mouth to get people to turn out . Absolutely. Are you guys doing that . Are people doing that . We have seen that happen in segments of the electorate. The africanamerican vote being turned out with the souls to the polls. Thats a huge way of talking to voters right away, meeting them right where they live. I think social media has given us a way to expand that. Even since 2010 if you think about the social media advancements, we can talk to a lot more. Our networks have gotten so much bigger and so much more easily accessed than just four years ago. So im excited to see how things change tomorrow. Karine, you worked on the 2012 reelect. It did manage to get a lot of these marginal voters or infrequent voters. What are the big lessons are that you learned . I think its important. I think jess hit it right on the nose there. Its really important to people will listen to their neighbors and to their friends, right . You do like neighbor to neighbor kind of action. You really tell one of the final pitches that a lot of candidates that ive worked for tend to do and tend to say that we really, really push for is you go in there and tell the crowd, you tell people when you go to the polls, you bring someone with you, right . You dont go alone. Bringi your neighbor, your mom, your sister. There is really reaching out to peoples sensibility and really making them understand. We can do this, right . We can really, really make a difference tomorrow in this election. So thats one way is really talking to the folks out there, really touching to their sensibility. Thank you both. That is all in for this evening. Tune in tomorrow night at 6 00 p. M. Eastern for msnbcs special live coverage. The Rachel Maddow show starts right now. Good evening, chris. Thanks to you at home for joining us. There are not a lot of twoterm president s in recent american history. Before president obama there was george w. Bush. He, of course, had two terms. Bill clinton. Ronald reagan. But before ronald reagan, you have to go back to eisenhower to get to a president who served two whole terms. So if you look at these four, the only president s in the last 30 actually eisenhower should be obama there. You look at these president s over the last 30 years to have served two terms, obviously, they are pretty wildly different as president s. They served in different times and have been viewed differently in terms of how theyll go down in history. In this rather elite club, these few people who have had two terms, all of them so far have had the same thing happen to