Have very strong borders and we have to change our laws and were working on doing that. We had a trade deficit of almost 500 billion last year with china. We cant continue to allow this to happen where hundreds of billions of dollars is taken out of our country and our system. I want to get out, i want to bring our troops back home. I want to start rebuilding our nation. We will have as of three months ago 7 trillion in the middle east over the last 17 years we get nothing, nothing out of it. Talk about going back to campaign mode. Today he resurrected comments that launched his campaign. Lets watch. Remember my opening remarks at trump tower when i opened, everybody said oh, he was so tough. I used the word rape and yesterday it came out where this journey coming up women are raped at levels that nobodys ever seen before. They dont want to mention that. Trump seems to be returning to the guiding principle that got him into office in the first place he alone can fix it. Theyve given you nothing. I will give you everything. I will give you what youve been looking for 30, 40, 50 years. Nobody knows the system better than me. Which is why i alone can fix it. I alone can fix it. According to several sources who spoke to the washington post, the president s telling advisers that hes finally expediting the policies that got him elected and is more comfortable without a number of aides around him who are tempering his instincts. Hes feeling more confident in his job than at any other point in his 14 months as president and feels empowered to act upon things he has long wanted to do. Part of that confidence comes from recent polls. According to the Associated Press and the cnn polls the president has seen a sevenpoint increase in popularity since february. However, some of his actions have had unintended political consequences. Brewing talk of a trade war with china could devastate rural voters who backed trump, providing an opening for vulnerable democrats in red stateth sta states. For more, im joined by eugene robinson, column list for the washington post, and an msnbc news contributor. Michael steele, former chairman of the Republican National committee and, ashley, lets start with the News Analysis here. Trump seems to be thinking if i raise the heat, its good for me. Is he riding off of his higher poll numbers . Whats about this steaming up of his politics in every direction no china, mexico, everything. Well, the president is coming into his own as the president. He was a little tentative and hesitant at the beginning and he would defer more to his advisers, especially on issues that werent gut visceral issues for him. Now west wing aides tell us he feels more comfortable, he feels emboldened and this is someone who always wanted to play to his base. If there was ever a debate or a question of where hes going to go, hes going to go to that read meat, that base, those lines that got him huge applause during rallies and thats what were seeing right now. Is there any difference between him and his base . In other words, is he honestly against stupid wars . A phrase a lot of us liked hearing back in 16. Is he really for tough trade policy . Is he really against illegal immigration from across the border to the south . Does he feel those issues as well as his base does or is he playing to his base . All of those issues youve mentioned are the three core issues where trump is not particularly ideological but on those three issues, especially immigration, and especially trade these are things he, like a lot of his base, feels at a gut core level and its not stuff he started talking about on the campaign trail but stuff hes been talking about for decades. So if theres any ideology to him, its on these issues. Gene, hes going back to steve bannon country. This is economic nationalism, ethnic nationalism if you will, certainly on the big three we just talkeds about, stupid wars, china and immigration, its pure trump. It is. In terms of management style, hes starting to run the white house the way he ran the Trump Organization which is basically a oneman show. Now i dont think you can run the United States of america like that but he seems determined to try. And what can go wrong . Well just these core issues can backfire on him, if you look at the trade issue, he is he has his view of our trade deficit is that such that is basically launching a trade war with china and china is going to target its retaliation, already has, specifically at those groups that form trumps base so they will know how to inflict pain, political pain, on the president. This is going to be fascinating and i dont think this is a great idea for him. The chinese, i wouldnt underestimate them, theyre longterm planners but when they go after the soybeans, tell me about that. When you go to a Chinese Restaurant in this country you have soy sauce or whatever. You have soy sauce, but do you think they picked that out because it was a way of getting at the iowa voters and screwing trump in the Iowa Caucuses in 2020 . Absolutely. Absolutely. It absolutely is a way of screwing trump. China is a big importer of u. S. Agricultural products and soy beans is thats a big deal. So if you look at the whole line of items on which china is retaliating are like a political map of the trump base and clearly and obviously and very smartly designed to cause himmi people behind trump wanted to see he has the same attitude or they care about results . Are they happy if he just screams and shows he doesnt like Illegal Immigrants from across the border from mexico, if he screams against the chinese and acts tough and tries to get us out of the middle east, its just the exercise of trying to do those things, do they win votes and keep votes with him and his base . I think thats partly right, yeah. There is this desire to reconnect with them when the wheels seemingly come off. We saw that just this past week with his daca position being exposed, if you will, to the base by ann coulter and others who were blowing a gasket of where the president seemingly was ending up on this daca thing. What did he do . He doubled down, the rhetoric heated up and it was his way of reassuring his base through his words that im still with you. Heres the test, though. The test will become one of action with respect to the border, daca, for example and on maybe other Economic Issues like instruct possibly. They turned that corner a little bit, chris, on tax reform, but thats had mixed results so far because of what the president has said on trade and other things impacting the economic progress that has been made. So the president is sandwiching himself in between his red rick and the actions he knows hes going to have to take on some of these thorny issues, which is why youve seen the reread ttre and renaming the border wall looking at a fence going, well, thats a wall, too. Ashley, you covered the white house and this whole political whatever it is. When i keep hearing people on the Progressive Side or even the moderate side of politics, center right or center left and theyre giving public advice in their columns to trump, i keep thinking they dont like trump, they want trump to fail so why should he take their advice . He s he skeptick is he skept people who dont like him and what does he think of the advice he gets from the left . Its an interesting question because hes someone who is very skeptical, for instance, of the republican establishment in getting advice from them. Hes almost likely to willfully disregard it but at the same time he takes advice from very unlikely people, people who arent necessarily qualified to advise him on policies. Hell talk to an old friend, a longtime billionaire, someone who has been quite successful but may know nothing about Border Security and hell take their advice. He talks to celebrities or fox news personalities. So hell take advice from a wide range of areas but theyre not traditional ones and theyre rarely the mainstream or even the republican establishment. According to the walk, President Trump is discovering that the policies he once described as easy fixes for the country are more complicated in reality. Look at donald trump the candidate versus donald trump the president. Youre going to have such Great Health Care at a tiny fraction of the cost. And its going to be so easy. Now, i have to tell you, its an unbelievably complex subject. Nobody knew that health care could be so complicated. If china does not stop its illegal activities i will use every lawful president hey, look, this is very easy, this so easy. The wall is peanuts. Thats going to be one of the easy negotiations, believe me. We intend to get along with china but we have to do something substantial about the trade deficit and with that nothing is easy. Reporter have there been any more efforts to get mexico to pay for the wall . Well, yeah, i believe that mexico will pay for the wall. As you know were negotiating nafta, well see how that goes. I do well with congress, ive worked with politicians all my life. Theyre easy. I said to the republicans and these are good people, they really want and i know they get hit hard, the senators, the congressmen, but theyre all working hard, its not so easy. Its complicated stuff. Gene, he came in like the man on horse back, the frightening figure of the right weve always been afraid of. The guy who comes in and says im going to solve all your problems, just give me all the power. I think on some level he did think it would be easy and that comes from his having had zero experience in government and zero experience with the issues and, frankly, zero inclination to learn the issues in any sort of depth or details so he still doesnt know immigration policy in detail. He still doesnt know what it would take to actually negotiate getting his wall. He had opportunities to do that and he couldnt do that and part of it is just unfamiliarity with the issues. Well, the president s remarks just today about rape harkening back to comments he made when he launched his campaign. Lets listen to this stuff. When mexico sends its people, theyre not sending their best. Theyre bringing drugs, theyre bringing crime, theyre rapists and some i assume are good people. Ashley, hes back to that. Yeah, he is, i mean, that was sort of the basis i mean, it was as you said, that was how he launched his campaign. It was the basis in part of his rise. Those comments, offensive comments about Barack Obamas birth certificate and when in doubt the president often returns to those read meat lines that really riled up his base. He has a couple metrics for success. One is the stock market but another is remembering what it felt like to stand in front of huge crowds at rallies and get that thundering applause. That was one of his lines so its not surprising to see him returning to something hes comfortable with and gets him adulation from a certain core of supporters. Thats well done. Gene, both you and michael, talk about how much of this is the standup comic or anyone who performs before crowds just wanting to hear that feedback, that roar of approval and how much of it is calculated to get himself reelected . Hell need to be in the high 40s to be elected . He needs the roar of approval. He feeds on that. How much is calculated to get him reelected . He desperately wants to get reelected. He doesnt do calculation in terms of a long range plan or strategy. I think he does see in not in a programmatic way but in a real way i think he sees some of where he has to be politically to get reelected on some level but its not like he has a step by step plan for what to do today, what to do tomorrow, what to do in six months. I think for him its all visceral. Its a gut check, a gut feel. He has an inextricable link to his base supporters as ashley and others who cover this president know. Its intangible in many respects. He senses when they need him. They sense when he needs them and that works, but the broader question you ask as we get ready to go through the 2018 cycle, chris and into 2019 and 2020 is how do you build and grow that . Because republicans right now need not just that base. Theyre going to need the center left, center right voters to come out this november if they want to hold the house and grow a seat or two in the senate and thats got to be the setup for 2020. The president , while he may have this instinctual relationship with his base, he has to grow that instinct for the rest of the country as well because hell need that 48 to get out there. Does he need an Elizabeth Warren or the memory of Hillary Clinton or the pocahontas number of his and all that something his people will have a nasty attitude towards for him to win . He will. But who is that going to be . Theres a short shelf life for an Elizabeth Warren and certainly i dont think theres much left in beating up the Hillary Clinton making that case so theres got to be someone else who steps in and thats why democrats i think at this point, chris, have been holding back not getting out in front of the whole president ial bid because they dont want to be the fall guy, they dont want to be the pincushion for this president at this point. I agree. Smart, because he has to have a foil. He has to have somebody to beat up, thank you eugene robinson, Michael Steele and ashley parker. Coming up, the russia investigation. New reporting about a key cooperating witness in the mueller probe, george nader. Remember him . He helped set up that secret meeting in the seychelles between the russians and a top trump adviser, that sneaky meeting in the indian ocean. Tonight were learning much more about him and his very deep ties guess what to russia . Plus as epa administrator scott pruitt is on the chopping block, it looks like it despite the bad headlines. Hes holding on but trumps recent comments about pruitt arent exactly a vote of confidence. And with republicans facing a potential wipeout this november, Party Leaders are sounding the alarm. Senator Mitch Mcconnell says the party could be in for a category five hurricane at the poll this is november. Is the situation as dire as it seems for republicans . I think so. Finally, let me finish with what i think and how i expect things to end this year. This is hardball, where the action is. Ine, but we know a lot about drama. From scandalous romance, to ridiculous plot twists. gasping son . Dad we also know you can avoid drama by getting an annual checkup. So were partnering with cigna to remind you to go see a real doctor. Go, know, and take control of your health. It could save your life. Doctor poses dad cigna. Together, all the way. Dad birds tweeting this is not a cloud. This is a tomato tracked from farm to table on a blockchain, helping keep shoppers safe. This is a financial Transaction Secure from hacks and threats others cant see. This is a skyscraper whose elevators use iot data and ai to help thousands get to work safely and efficiently. This is not the cloud you know. This is the ibm cloud. The ibm cloud is the cloud for smarter business. Late this afternoon during a gaggle with reporters on air force one, President Trump answered a couple of questions about Stormy Daniels. Lets watch. Did you know about the 130,000 payment to Stormy Daniels . No. Then why what else . Why did Michael Cohen make that payment . Youll have to ask Michael Cohen. Michaels my attorney and youll have to ask michael. Reporter do you know where he got the money to make that payment . No, i dont know. Well be right back. Laura can clean up a retriever that rolled in foxtails, but shes not much on articles of organization. Articles of what . So, she turned to legalzoom. They helped me out. She means we helped with her llc, trademark, and a lot of other legal stuff thats a part of running a business. So laura can get back to the dogs. Would you sit still . This is lauras mobile dog grooming palace and this is where life meets legal. A hilton getaway means you get more because you get a break on breakfast get an extra day by the pool get to spend more time together get more from your spring break getaway with exclusive hilton offers. Book yours, only at hilton. Com im actually closer to my retirement daysing. Than i am my college days. I just want to know, am i gonna be okay . I know people who specialize in am i going to be okay. I like that. You may need glasses though. Schedule a complimentary goal Planning Session with Td Ameritrade. Welcome back to hardball. New reporting today Sheds Additional Light on the collusion part of the russia probe and may explain Robert Muellers interest in a mysterious International Businessman with ties to the middle east. The Developments Center around george nader, a lebaneseamerican adviser to the United Arab Emirates whos cooperating with the special counsel in exchange for immunity. As we reported last month, nader is best known for setting up a key meeting in the remote Indian Ocean Island of the seychelles just before the inauguration in january of 2017. That meeting brought together trump adviser eric prince with a Russian Oligarch reportedly for the purpose of establishing a back channel between the Incoming Trump administration and the kremlin. Well, that same month, nader met at trump tower with steve bannon, jared kushner, and according to the New York Times, a Hedge Fund Manager with business ties to kushner and the uae. The New York Times reports that nader has more previously unreported ties to moscow. Quote, naders dealings with russia date at least to 2012 when he helped broker a controversial 4. 2 billion deal for the government of iraq to buy russian weapons. While the dell fell through, mr. Nader has returned frequently to rush on behalf of them ratty government, even has his picture take within mr. Putin. In an indication that as a cooperating witness nader could be more valuable to mueller than we previously knew. Im joined by barbara mcquaid, a former federal prosecutor and msnbc legal analyst and shane harris, an intelligence and National Security correspondent with the washington post. Shane, put this together when you put this set of characters together. Connect these dots. George nader, was he setting up the meeting between the russians and the trump guy, eric prince . Thats what i think bob mueller is looking at. And if you look at the meeting in the say shells, you have people from the United Arab Emirates, youve got a russian, youve got eric prince. Whats the connective tissue . It might be george nader. He knows the trump people, he works for the emirites and thats what mueller is focusing in on is what naders roll was in the seychelles meeting which has been reported and may have been a back channel set up between the Transition Team and the russians as a way of communicating outside of normal channels. Barbara. Back to the collusion front, theres a lot on obstruction but now were back to the collusion with russia during the campaign. What does this teal us about a deal or conspiracy involving the trump folks and the russians . I dont know that we know yet but mr. Nader seems to be a key person. Often times you can tell a lot of things from documents, getting bank report, phone records, other kinds of things that can help you connect people. In the end you need a human witness to explain how the dots are connected and it could be mr. Nader is providing that role for Robert Mueller. Why do you think he got immunity . Well, he may have some exposure, he at least perceives he has exposure. Immunity comes when someone says im going to take the fifth when you ask me questions because i believe i have criminal exposure so immunity is given in exchange so you say i wont use your statements against you, tell me what you know. So he at least perceived he had criminal exposure. Now comes this, a cnn report that according to sources familiar with the probe, muellers team has taken the unusual step of questioning Russian Oligarchs who have traveled in the United States, stopping at least one and searching his Electronic Devices when his private jet landed at a new york area airport. They reported that investigators are asking whether wealthy russians illegally funneled cash donations directly or indirectly into Donald Trumps president ial campaign and inauguration. Shane, i guess thats the gold pot the pot of gold if youre investigating the trump operation, if they were taking money from not just overseas to win the election but from russia. That would be an absolutely huge revolution if that were true. And there have been rumblings about this. Weve seen this in previous reporting and talking to my sources, the Intelligence Community becoming aware in the spring of 2016 that russian money was somehow making its way into the u. S. Election. Weve never exactly known how that happened, what were the conduits, precisely where it was going but when you see this cnn report that muellers team is stopping russians at airports and looking at their Electronic Devices, what are you getting . Possibly emails, texts, records of phone conversations. We know what we can pete together about somebodys contacts by looking at their phones. I think this is a Significant Development and tells you Robert Mueller has some very specific questions he thinks these individuals that were stopped can answer either by telling him or searching their equipment. Barbara, how does this operate . People working for mueller had the help of the fbi, obviously. Is that does the fbi have the ability to stop somebody at the airport with a russian name at kennedy or anywhere else and say i want to look at your laptop . Actually, there is Border Search Authority to look at Electronic Devices without a search warrant, its one of the few exceptions to the search warrant requirement and the idea is i can look into anything youre bringing into the country because it might contain contraband. They can do a basic search, they cant hook it up to machines and analyze it but they can look through it as shane just said, looking for emails and the like so were seeing this tactic which is very aggressive but were seeing this tactic by muellers team to catch people by the element of surprise when theyre arriving in the country and minimizing the risk and searching their electronics. So they say igor, give me your password . Is it that aggressive. Can you just say i want to go through at the airport a little side room, i want to take the clothes off your operation in terms of your social media. Can you do that . You say you cant go deep, how far can you go into somebodys laptop . You can look. You just cant make an image and analyze it. If the person doesnt want to show it to you, the remedy is you can turn them away and so go back home. Thats a requirement of admission to be available for that kind of search in. Yes. This is serious business. Thank you barbara and shane. Every time i hear more about the bob Mueller Operation the more i think of the iceberg. Deep, big, really powerful and we have no idea how big it is unless it surfaces. Up next, will epa administrator scott pruitt will the latest trump official to get axed by the administration . Hes mired in scandal. Lots of drips. And trump isnt exactly giving him a major vote of confidence. This hardball, where the action is. Little things can be a big deal. Thats why theres otezla. Otezla is not an injection or a cream. Its a pill that treats psoriasis differently. With otezla, 75 clearer skin is achievable after just 4 months,. With reduced redness, thickness, and scaliness of plaques. And the otezla prescribing information has no requirement for routine lab monitoring. Dont use if youre allergic to otezla. Otezla may cause severe diarrhea, nausea, or vomiting. Tell your doctor if these occur. Otezla is associated with an increased risk of depression. 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Pruitt defended himself in an interview with fox news. Lets listen. Is draining the swamp renting an apartment from the wife of a washington lobbyist . I dont think that thats even remotely fair to ask that question. Okay, so why did you then accept 50 a night to rent a condo from the wife of a washington lobbyist. Lets talk about that. That has been reviewed by ethics officials here, they said its market rate. Youre wenting irenting it wife of a lobbyist. Who has no business before this agency. Thats kind of a sweetheart deal no, its not. The epas top ethics official clarified his initial signoff saying he lacked some key facts when concluded it didnt violate gift rules. The epa Inspector General is now reviewing the allegations. The daily beast reports during a call to pruitt on tuesday, chief of staff john kelly impressed upon pruitt that though he has the full Public Confidence of President Trump for now, the flow of negative and damning stories needed to stop soon. Heres what the president himself said about his epa chief earlier in the week. Reporter scott pruitt, sir . I hope hes going to be great. Going to be great. Today trump went further saying i think scott has done a fantastic job, i think hes a fantastic person. Meanwhile, late today came more problematic news for pruitt. The New York Times reported at least five officials at the Environmental Protection agency, four of them highranking, were reassigned or demoted or requested new jobs in the past year after they raised concerns about the spending and management of the agencys administrator, that being scott pruitt. Should trump change his mind and fire pruitt, he wouldnt be the first member of the greatest cabinet to be fired or forced out. Health and Human Services secretary tom price was removed last year, secretary of state Rex Tillerson was reportedly fired by a tweet last month. And v. A. Secretary thats veterans administrator David Shulkin was forced out just last week. For more im joined by howard fineman, msnbc and nbc news analyst. Howard, this is a very busy guillotine very busy and the president is madam dufarge here. How does pruitt look . Ive been talking to peep yay people and heres the bottom line. I was told by somebody very close to the president that its not a question of whether with scott pruitt but a question of when whenning it sounds like to me they know more than has been made public, that theyre concerned about what other things can come out. The bottom line is this, chris. Its not really about any corruption in office per se. Its not even i think the thing with the lobbyist and rental on the hill is less important than the fact that scott pruitt has been behaving like a sun king. Hes got the 18person security staff. Hes got sirens when he goes across town. Hes got valvish spending in his office, hes got his own prepresident ial Campaign Going that made it on the front page of the New York Times last year in a Family Business named trump and an administration named trump there can be only one sun king. There can be only one person acting like that and thats donald trump, not scott pruitt. The scariest thing i think and the most annoying thing to the president about scott pruitt is hes behaving like a man with his own agenda, with his own career ahead of him, with his own base in the hard right and that hes the only guy who can bring changes in the epa. The president doesnt want a cabinet of people who say theyre the only ones who can do it. Remember what donald trump said at the beginning when he was in cleveland at the convention, he said i alone can do it and scott pruitt is not behaving the way donald trump wants him to. It seems almost like one of the things you learn in physics where the same charges repel each other. Exactly. And it takes a guy with trumps ego and need to spot another guy like that in his cabinet and from the beginning scott pruitt has been otouting himself, touting his own role. Yes, praising the president when necessary but talking about what a great epa administrator he is, going to conservative republican gatherings and touting himself, telling stories about how he might want to run for governor or senator of oklahoma and then president. Put on top of that the turmoil within the epa that the New York Times is talking about, thats been going on for months and months, really from the beginning. The spending on his office, the spending on his travel, the spending on his security detail and gaving raises through a technicality in the epa water law to two of his trusted advisers against the specific judgment of the white house, he tried to get those raises approved through the office of Personnel Management and the white house. The white house said no, pruitt did it anyway. That kind of thing signals to trump not so much corruption as the threat of another ambitious person in the circle. Unmatchable analysis, howard, thank you so much. I have nothing to add. Great man, thank you so much for that great analysis. Up next, senator Mitch Mcconnell is sounding the alarm bell about a potential wipeout, you know, wipeout, like a tsunami coming at the republicans this november. But can democrats get enough momentum to actually do it for 2018 . Can they get to the 218 they need in the howwhite house to impeach this president . Everybody two seconds dear sebastian, after careful consideration of your application, it is with great pleasure that we offer our congratulations on your acceptance. Through the Tuition Assistance program, every day mcdonalds helps more people go to college. Its part of our commitment to being americas best first job. Im all about my bed. This mattress is dangerously comfortable. When i get in, i literally say, ahh. 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Pg e prunes and removes over a Million Trees every year to ensure that hazardous trees cant impact power lines. And since the onset of the drought weve doubled our efforts. I grew up in the forests out in this area and honestly its heartbreaking to see all these trees dying. What guides me is ensuring that the public is going to be safer and that these forests can be sustained and enjoyed by the community in the future. Our republican majority is one of the most successful in the history of the United States congress. Now we must work to keep our majority in this election. We are fighting to win and we are going to win. Just no reason why we shouldnt win with what weve done over the last year. No reason whatsoever. Welcome back to hardball. That was President Trump last month telling republicans that there is no reason for them to lose in 2018. But not everyone is so optimistic. Lets listen to what Senate Majority leader Mitch Mcconnell said this week. If you look at the history of offyear elections, particularly two years into a new administration, remember clinton lost the house and senate, obama lost the house and almost lost the senate, we know the wind will be in our face, were not sure if its a category three, four, or five. But im hoping we can hold the senate and the principal reason for that, even if we were to lose the house and be stymied legislatively, we could still approve appointments, which is a huge part of what we do. After liberal candidate rebecca dahlet won an election for the supreme court, the first victory for a liberal who season an incumbent, republican Governor Scott walker report that tonights results show we are at risk of a blue wave in wisconsin. The far left is terrific by anger and hatred, we must counter with it optimism and organization. Lets share our positive story with voters and win in november. How likely is that risk of a blue wave in the 2018 elections . 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Welcome back to hardball. 44 republicans are giving up their seats in 2018, creating an opening for democrats who need to pick up 24 seats to win a majority in the house of representatives. Since world war ii, the president s party has lost an average of 29 seats in his first Midterm Election and when that president s job Approval Rating has fallen below 50 , his party has lost an average of 44 seats. In the latest nbc news wall street journal poll 50 of registered voters say prefer a Democratic Congress while 40 want a republican congress. Democrats probably need to be ahead by at least ten points in order to win the house. Will 2018 follow historic trends or could bit a nonsoon of democratic voters like it was in 2010 the other way when republicans won 63 seats . Lets bring in tonights round table, elena schneider, Donna Edwards and radio host chris birskirk. Make your predictions right now. How many democratic seats will the democrats pick up in this november election, elena . Were seven months out but i would say its likely to very possible that democrats will flip the house. More than 24. They need 24, how many do l they get . More than 24. 24 plus. Donna . Im in the 35 to 40 range. I think this wont be a wave but a tsunami. Chris . 12 in the house and republicans pick up three in the sena senate. Lets go to you, chris. Why do you think it will be such a short advantage for the democrats when theres so many open republican seats now. 44 either retired or running for Something Else creating vacancies and therefore an opportunity. The fact that the pattern has been that when the president is under 50 they pick up 40. Why do you say its only 12 . Its structural. I think republicans have a good story to tell. The economy is growing, wages are rising. The other part structurally is that if you look at these districts themselves, when you start to drill down, they have republicans b in terms of registrations. When you look at the numbers of the whole country that tells you one thing but not what happens in the district itself. That was the sunny side of the street. Would you give me an alternative of how they look . Theyre only going to lose 12 would still be a shockeroo. Your store thought . You have to look at the races of v. A. , pennsylvania, and washington and down the line in these sections where you have seen democrats outperform republicans in republicanheld districts and states and thats just a bellwether for whats going to happen in november. Democrats are targeting 70 seats held by republicans and there are thousands of candidates running up and down the ballot which is fuelling the energy in the party but this is going to be a bad look for republicans. They cant run with donald trump and they cant run without him. That spells disaster for them in november. Elena, who has the most enthusiasm . The numbers ive looked at suggest democrats have the edge. They want to vote against trump. I think youre right. We keep seeing in special election after special election that democrats are energized and they want to vote. Take pennsylvania, the specific there, this is a place that trump won by 20 points and a democrat was able to flip that seat in part because democrats in the suburbs showed up for him. In wisconsin this week we saw that as well. Democrats are excited to vote and thats not a surprise in a first midterm year in which the opposite party is in power. Let me go to chris on this. I read that great interview between frank bruni of the New York Times and ann coulter where she whacked trump on not being tough on building the wall across the mexican border. Is there a disease on the heart right against the trump base . Theres an issue there. This puts her finger on the pulse there which is to say that if the president is not able to appease his peace, his base, meaning just fulfill some of your promises, it doesnt have to be all of them, particularly the big ones. If you undermine the confidence then i think you start to look at the numbers that everybody else is talking about 20 or 30 losses. If trump can shore up his base, i think he can do better in the midterms. I guess thats the question. I want to go back to elena to figure this out. What is the Republican Base . Are they hawkish or dovish . Trump ran as a guy against stupid wars but i get the sense theres still cold war thinking in the Republican Party that loves to go to war with russia, loves to get active in the middle east, very proisraeli, almost to the right on those issues and are they trump what is the Republican Base on Foreign Policy . Is it hawkish or dovish . I think the trump base is what trump promised them which was to put america first. To focus on their issues to protect them on the in the global marketplace to renegotiate trade deals to protect them. Were still in syria, still in afghanistan and still in iraq. And i think at this point its not clear whether or not its going to be motivating people or demote separating people. Donna, let me ask you about the democratic base, you know it well, youre campaigning for county executive in Prince Georges County in maryland. Tell me about the women, for example, do you find it easier to get people not just to contribute money but to get out there and work on saturdays and go around and canvass . Are people ready to go now . Is this too early. I think they are and i think what youve seen is the Movement Among women who are fleeing donald trump for a lot of reasons. For his personal character but also because we know that he also doesnt have any ideology at all and so you see women fleeing and i think thats what you saw in you saw in the conor lamb race in pennsylvania, its what youve seen in these special elections, its what youve seen in those races all through virginia. And frankly, you saw it in alabama in that special election, as well, for the u. S. Senate. S so i really see the women are going to be the dreciders in ths election and those are the same people who moved to donald trump and theyll move back in every district. Do not mistake serenity for weakness. Do not misjudge quiet tranquility with the power of 335 turbocharged horses lincoln mkx, more horsepower than the lexus rx350 and a quiet interior from which to admire them. The lincoln spring sales event is here. For a limited time get zero percent apr on the lincoln mkx. Hurry in today to your lincoln dealer. Im the one clocking in when youre clocking out. Sensing your every move and automatically adjusting to help you stay effortlessly comfortable. I can also help with this. Does your bed do that . Oh. I dont actually talk. Though im smart enough to. Im the new sleep number 360 smart bed. Lets meet at a sleep number store. Were back with the hardball roundtable. Elena, tell me something i dont know. Middle Tennessee State university released a poll today about the Tennessee Senate race where senator bob corker is retiring. And they revealed that phil bredesen, the former governor, is ahead of Marsha Blackburn by ten points. This is a state that trump won by 26 points in 2016. So this is granted, its a poll, and the caveat is that phil bresddesen is well known, t its another proof point to show that democrats are really enthusiastic, even in the heart of trump country. I think its bredesen, i was just down there, and i think hes going to win. Donna . The Census Bureau is being sued if by more than a dozen states because they think theyre going to ask a Citizenship Question on the next 2020 census. And the reason that this is important is because many think that its designed to scare away immigrant voters from participating in the census, which could have a deep impact on resources and Everything Else that goes into states and communities. Chris . Ill tell you two things. One is youre going to find out that the trump base, the Republican Base is still deeply suspicious of the neoconservative agenda of unwinnable foreign wars and overseas innovation. The other thing well find out is because china has such a large trade deficit with the United States, it doesnt have as much leverage it thinks it has. Thank you, elena, donna, and chris. When we return, let me finish tonight how we can expect to end this year. My political predictions for november. Youre watching hardball. Hes playno, with us. Hes trying to tell us something. Lets see what forensics thinks. Sorry im late. What did i miss . Wanna get away . Now you can with southwest fares as low as 49 dollars oneway. Yes to low fares with nothing to hide. Thats transfarency. Were all under one roof now. Congratulations. Thank you. How many kids . My two. His three. Along with two dogs and jake, our new parrot. That is quite the family. Quite a lot of colleges to pay for though. A lot of colleges. You get any Financial Advice . Yeah, but im pretty sure its the same plan they sold me before. Well your situations totally changed now. Right, right. How bout a plan that works for 5 kids, 2 dogs and jake over here . That would be great. That would be great. That okay with you, jake . Get a portfolio that works for you now and as your needs change from Td Ameritrade investment management. Let me finish tonight with how i expect were going to finish this year. This november, the entire house of representatives is up for election. And i think about the entire body being dissolved and the question of its future thrown back to the people, the american people. The u. S. House of representatives we have this Time Next Year will be entirely the result of what we the Voters Decide this fall. So with that, i dare to make a fairly acute prediction. I say it on this fifth day of april, with all the possibilities looming this summer and early fall, i believe the democrats will carry the house. They will take control of the speakership, the chairmanship of all the committees, and most importantly perhaps the power of the subpoena. They will claim to an enormous amount of power, and with it, i believe an enormous amount of responsibility. A word first about the math. As i said earlier in the show, the democrats have control now of 194 house seats. They need to pick up 24 to get to the 218 majority. History suggests and the level of this president s popularity suggests they will pick up more than the average 29 seats the party opposing the president gets in the first Midterm Election. I believe theyll do better. Somewhere comfortably between 30 and 40 seats picked up. And so hold me to that. Hold me to that. Hopefully i will narrow it down within that range the week heading into the election. 30 to 40seat pickup. Again, the great question is how the democrats will use this new power to convince voters they have the commitment and judgment to challenge and check President Trump on the Vital National issues in a way that provides those voters with a vision of what the Democratic Party believes in, in its guts, what it sees in its mind and what its willing to fight for with its soul. We need two Political Parties in this country, and right now looking at the republicans, we barely have one. Thats hardball for now. Thanks for being with us. All in with chris hayes starts right now. Tonight on all in. I cant speak to the future of scott pruitt. Engulfed in scandals, trumps epa chief is on thin ice. Youre renting from the wife of a lobbyist. Who has no business before this agency. Hold on a second. Tonight, new reporting on what that lobbyist was up to and whether pruitt can hang on. Have you made mistakes . I think this is something that needs to be corrected. And then the president s first comments on Stormy Daniels. Did you know about the 130,000 payment to Stormy Daniels . No. Why that denial could create more problems for the president. Michaels my attorney and youll have to ask michael. Plus, new details from Robert Muellers investigation and