To them at the end of their presidency they all had to deal with the house and the senate being in control of the opposite party bill clinton was a democrat in his second term election, he did not lose the Senate Majority because it was not theirs to lose, but they stayed in the minority in both the senate and the house. Every twoterm president of the modern era has had to serve the last two years of his presidency with both houses of congress being controlled by the other party. This is what happens to second term presidencys. Every time. At least over the course of my lifetime, this is how it goes. And before, even if you do want to go back further than that, it was true of eisenhower, as well. This has now proven to be almost a historic inevitability of what happens to president s when they get to their second term and second midterm election. The other guys in charge of congress. It must be a huge drag if youre president to know thats coming. But even though that is the history, nobody knows for sure if thats going to be president obama in elections, as well. Republicans will certainly hold the house. Nobody yet knows if they will take the senate. Republicans will seem very account e confident that they will take the snats. The repub licans. In midterm e lerkss, the president s party loses an eave rang of four senate seats in each midterm election. If, however, you focus in on just the second midterms, just the mid temples on a president in his sixth year of office, the number of senate seets loses on average is 5. 8, lets round to six. The historical average levels in tomorrows election, the Republican Party tomorrow will take six senate seets from the democrats. And, coincidentally, six senate seets happens to be the naex e exact number of seets they need to take from the democrats in order to take control of the United States senate. All they have to do is hit the historical eave rang and they will get what they waj e want. E if they dont, theyll have some explaining to do. So far. So that context is not about any one race. That doesnt tell you whats going to happen to any one individual candidate tomorrow or any individual state tomorrow. Thats just the historical precedent for what happens in elections like the one we are about to have. And if past is prologue and tomorrow does follow that very clear, historic pattern, well, then, the next thing to consider is what happens once republicans do have control of the United States senate as well as the United States house of representatives. If they have complete control of congress, what are they going to want to do with it . No idea. Texas senator ted cruz dipd a Washington Post interview whether he said hes already not sure whether he will vote for the majority republicans in the senate. Theyre already fighting over the booty when they havent even raided the castle yet. If republicans do meet historys expected tagszs and they do take complete control of congress tomorrow, well, okay. This is the legislative record u the quantitative legislative record of achievemented for what is known as the donothing congress. After world war ii, 1948, harry truman branded the congress that year the donothing congress. In that famous picture holding up a newspaper, dewey got the Election Results wronk. Other than that headline, do you remember anything else about tom mass dewey . Are you even sure that his first name was tom mass . No, nobody remembers anything about thomas dewey. Harry trksz ruman didnt everyone bother running against him. He basically ignored the republican candidate. He ran against the donothing congress and he won. And that will forever be known as the donothing congress. Its the historic benchmark in our nation for the failure of a political institution, right . For the failure to act. That congress did nothing. Forcomparisons sake, the 112th congress there, thats the legislative record of the last congress we just had. They say theres nothing new under the sun . Bull puckey. We are setting new records for congress doing less than it ever has done before. Usa, zurks u usa,e usa. Its officially the least Productive Congress in the history of congress. And, now, this is the record of the Current Congress that were in right now. The kushCurrent Congress, their record so far. We might even beat the record, which we set last year. Congress has never done less in the history of the yiet e United States of america than it has done since republicans took control of the house in 2010. If the Republican Party also takes the senate, though, i think its reasonable to expected that that record of doing absolutely nothing will change. Republicans in control of the two houses of congress will probably find a way to agree with each other enough to pass things. Because they will be able to do it with all republican votes. Once they can act in washington without having to deal with the democrats at all, my guess is they probably will start passing stuff. Democrats will not be able to stop them in the house or in the senate, barring the filibuster. If the republicans take control of both of thoer parties, democrats will not be able to stop them in congress at all. They will leave it up to president obama himself. President obama alone will be the counter weight to the allrepublican congress if the republicans take the senate tomorrow. And that is going to be a lot of fun to cover. When this same thing may happen to president obama tompl happened to jorjs bush in 2006, when the democrats took control in both houses of congress, george w. Bush, at that point, had only vetoed one bill over the entire time he had been pet. After 2006, after the opposite party took control, he issued 11 vetoes in his last two years in office. Heading into tomorrows elections, pet obama, so far, in this presidency, has only vetoed two pieces of legislation. Neither of which are things that anybody remembers. One of them was basically a t o typo. Congress passed a stock e stopped gap thing because they thought they were not going to be able to pass a spending bill. But then they passed a spending bill, too. It was just kind of a screw up. It was a nonevent. Only one of those things could be lost. The headline in the New York Times today, president obama issued his very first veto as president is this. Veto from obama does not stop presses. Its not the most important thing. The only other thing he has ve e vetoed had to do with who im kidding you im not kidding you. It had 20 do with who is allowed to notarize your mort gant e gang documents. Now, no offense to notaries or mortgage documents, but that veto was not exactly an earth h eshattering political move. All of the politics and the kimpblt e different types of political excitement that we have had during the obama years, we have had pree precisely zero excitement over president ial vetoes. It has only happened twice so far and neither time did et e it even make the frount e front section of the pam e paper when he did it. But if his ri is right about whats going to happen in tomorrows election, that whole veto thing is about to get a lot more exciting. Were about to have a whole big new thing to be controversial and kbieting in our politics. Looking ahead to how tomorrows election may or may not change your life if you are interested in politics, you were aboare ab have a lot more barack obama in your politics if they can get it together to as e pass legislation through the house and senate. President obamas desk is going to become a much more swresibli interesting place than it has been. That is an exciting pros pekt. The other thing that we know is going to happen after tomorrows election is that president obama is planning on doing stuff without congress. Felt president obama has said that he will take executive action without congress on the issue of immigration. If you want to know what else is going to happen, if history is right and the republicans have a great day tomorrow, if you want to know what else that is going to mean in your life and as a political life as a nation, our friends at fox news are already s so excited about the pros pekt of president obama acting on the issue of em e immigration what theyre going to do if republicans get control of both house of Congress Starting tomorrow. Theyre already talking about what theyre going to do in response. I dont want to give it away, but itsd initials are impeople e peachment. Theyre already talking about impeachment. White house has basically said hes going to, right after the election,the midterms, he is going to issue abe an executive action in his talk. There was a big thing in the wall street georjournal this wed that, in effect, would not give legal slaigs eization to up to 4 million people. I promise you, if he does that, if he, by executive action, goes goeng e gen goes against congress and legalizes 4 million people. Youre going to see calls for impeachment. Impeachment. Theyre already calling ffr e for it. Theyre already planning on it. Blank blaeng. If the republicans do capture the senate, theres no more excuses about impeachment. See what weve heard so far is we cant do that because we can never get it through the senate. The house can impeach him, but the senate would never convict. It would gijust be a waste of time. Well, if they have control of the senate, it wont be. Well see how they deal with this e e, postelection, if they happen to win control of the senate. Thats tony perkins from the Family Research council. Over at world net daily, your source for wheres the birth certificate. Its our olt friend roma daily banging the drum for impeoplement there u as well. Blank bla blank. So on fox news, theyve already got it in motion as best as they can. Tomorrow, they take the senate. The day after that, they start working to waerd impeachment. Remember the summer republicans in the house came up with a plan that was supposed to drain some of the energy away from the calls on the right to start impeaching pet obama from something . House peep e speaker joan boehner said he would file a laut against president obama instead of filing impeachment proceedings. This is supposed to day vert energies into this lawsuit against president obama, instead. Since then, that supposed lauts has never been filed. Two different law firms have now kwit after being hired by the house speej e speaker to bring case. They just didnt ever bring nick with it. And the fire on the right, and in the conservative media and on fox news to impeople r peach president obama for something, sm e sometime soon, that fire on the right is burning hotter than i think the beltway realizes right now. Nob nobody knows fr sure in e if republicans are going to take the senate tomorrow. History suggests that they will. As you can see tonight, im at a different desk, were at the big new deszing. Were at big, new set. Lots of head room. Were set up for Election Night tomorrow night. The best we can tell from this Vantage Point is that the next two years are going to be not just a big deal, theyre probably going to be a big mess, which makes this business a very fun place to work. Joining us now is an dree ya mitchell here on msnbc. Great to see you. Great to be here. Nice i dont think i get to keep them. This election might go until january. I feel a little bit like heading into these elections, that theres two interesting things i cant get my head around. One of them feels like its very close. You look at things like the jell n jeller in generic. It seems like theyre very close. History tells us it wont be close. How do you approach Something Like this. Very, very cautiously. It is close. Akording to all of the polling. Polling can be wrong. But in every place we look, all the data show that its very close, we dont tee e see signs of this republican wave. Else specially in the nbc news wall street journal poll. Which show e now shows it neckinneck with people who say we want a Democratic Congress and a republican congress. Our best thinking, in looking at this is that people are so upset. So turned off by the deadlock, the gridlock, the argment, the commercials, the plun thats been spent. They are angry at the incoupe ie bents and they really righthand turn decided or havent decided up until now which way too express that anger. Do they stay home, in which case it basically advantages the people who are committed voters and midterms that often more older voters or does it inspire the space e base. Democrats getting angry enough and fearful enough about what they say will happen if the republicans take over if the young people will come out. And weve got ermly voting and keystate kroe kro, which is mailin voting. For the first time. For the first time we deent nope in a really important, close election in north carolina, what kind of voter intimidation is going to take place. Thats been ground zero, as you have reported, more important listenly than anyone else. I feel like looking ahead. I feel like else specially looking at previous, twoterm president s, they all had to deal with congress having control by the opposite party. Thats part of what makes it feel like a historic inevitab inevitability. Is there any way to look ahead toward what changes in washington, if the republicans do take control . I mean, policymaking, no policy is being made in congress, anyway. Presumably, no policy made in congress controlled on both sides because president obama will veto anything that they bant to pass that he wants to disagree with. Is there nigd based on what those last two years would be like and how theyd be different . If you look at Ronald Reagan, both of whom were struggling in their second terms with scan dalt. One impeachment, the sex scandal. The other iran contra. Bad scandals. The presidency was almost going down. It was saved by houf aerd baker and other people who came in as new chiefs of staff. But if you look at them, they didnt have to deal with an obama e Opposition Party which is controlled by the wings as this Republican Party. It was pretea party. It was preted cruz. And there was an accommodation by the Opposition Party and the second term pet, Ronald Reagan got stuff done. Bill clinton got important stuff done. And they were able to work across even poeszscandal. Even without e with opposite Party Control in the congress. Exactly. So the question is which Republican Party is going to be in charge. You already saw ted cruz saying todd in alaska, im not sure i would vote for Mitch Mcconnell. Does Mitch Mcconnell have to deal with president shl candidates among his colleagues taking shots from all sides. Is ill e it going to be rand paul who said he thinks things can be done. Is it going to be the acomet dags who might try to reach a mill and do something on tax reform, do something on trade policy that, ironically, president obama has tried to do but democrats have stopped him. Or is it going to be a divided Republican Party in three parts. Candidates, very rightwing tea party, members who are not running for pet and more moderate people who want to prove that republicans can get something done, can govern to position themselves for 2016. This is going to be fascinating. Seeing them fight over the spoils before theyve attained them. And one key thing, take a look at the chairman ships that. Is the key. Joan joan mechanicccain is going to over armed services. Greatest hoax every perpetrated on mankind, he says. So youve got a very interesting agenda. An droo ya mitchell, weekdays another noons tern here on msnbc. I cant wait to help cover this with you. And ill have a big guest tomorrow on my show. Who do you have . Oh, rachel maddow. Ill have to get up in time to see. All right, just a few hours away now, for walltowall coverage tomorrow night, msnbc is lucky enough to retain the services of the great steve r i got this. [thinking] is it that time . The son picks up the check . [thinking] im still working. Hes retired. I hope hes saving. I hope he saved enough. Who matters most to you says the most about you. At massmutual were owned by our policyowners, and they matter most to us. Whether youre just starting your 401 k or you are ready for retirement, well help you get there. Its not about how many miles you can get out of the cmax hybrid. Its about how much life you can fit into it. The ford cmax hybrid. With an epaestimated range of 540 miles on a tank of gas. And all the room you need to enjoy the trip. Go stretch out. Go further. Go stretch out. Can you start tomorrow . Yes sir. Alright. Lets share the news tomorrow. Today we failrly busy. Tomorrow were booked solid. We close on the house tomorrow. I want one of these opened up. Because tomorow we go live. Its a day full of promise. And often, that day arrives by train. Big day today . Even bigger one tomorrow. When csx trains move forward, so does the rest of the economy. Csx. How tomorrow moves. You know what americans love . Americans love pot. Legalizing not just medical marijuana, but just sitting and getting high marijuana. They legalized marijuanas use and made its sale a legal, regular lated tax i believe di t regulated tax industry. In those two states, they have got reel pot already. And, tomorrow, two more may choose to go the same way. Washington, d. C. Will vote on it tomorrow. But theres also the prospect e pekt that congress will overrule because citizens of the District Of Columbia are second class citizens who are not allowed to make decisions like other people are in every other part of the contiguous United States. In florida, they will be voting on marijuana tomorrow. In florida,its not for recreational use. Its for medicinal use. And, as such, under florida law, it will actually take a vote of 60 in favor. 60 of the population instead of a simple majority would be needed to pass that medical Marijuana Initiative tomorrow in florida. Overall, its a really interesting question. Because americans love pot so much, its an interesting question as to what that Marijuana Ballot Initiative might do to the election overall. Florida governor is very too kroes to call. And, same question for alaska. In alaska, both the senate race and the governors race are super, supertight. Tomorrow x theyre voting for legalizing it for recreational use. Everybody expecteds that to be of great interest to alaska voters. Nationwide polling has nearly 4 in 10 americans saying they would be much more likely to vote if legalization is on the ballot. Now, thats nationwide. Will it drive turnout up above where it might other wise be if voters didnt have the chance to vote in those states on pot. Which we love. As a country. Like mom and apple pie. If youre mom or apple pie, also made you want to eat funions and watch cartoons. Nobody knows the answer. Theres a lot of speculation about it. Theres a lot of speculation to watch. Also, the same question and the same potential dynamic in work but in a more pronounced fashion, in these states, because in these four states tomorrow, theyre voting on something that is even more documented in terms of people supporting it and it has an everyone clearer track record. That is not the issue of pot. Its the issue of money. Its the issue of raising the minimum wage. Alaska, arkansas, nk e nebraska, Second Degree zed, theyre all red states. Theyre all places where theres no way the republican legislatures are going to boost the wage in the states. Raising the minimum wage is really, really popular. They are their top of the ticket races that are really close. The minimum wage vote is not close. In arkansas, the ballot measure is leading by nearly 3to1. In south dakota, their measure to raise the minimum wage, leading by nearly 2to1. In alaska, in that generally red, lib e libertarianish state is up by 20 points. Raising the min e minimum wage is a really, really popular idea. Yes, we like pot as a country. We love pot as a country. But we also like the idea of giving a wage thats the lowest by law. The red state folks who live in those places, they support that wage. Its a historical, proven winner. So far, where ever the question of raising the minimum wage has appeared on the ballot, people have always said yes. And by very large margins. Just speaking in historic terms, raising the minimum wage has been undefeetble. And, historically, it also drives upturnout. People come out to vote for raising the minimum wage even if they wouldnt turn out to vote in that minimum election at all e all. And the scandal around the Republican Senate where everybody thought was going to be a shoe in. Putting pot on the ballot and raising the minimum wage on the ballot have the potential to change the elector rat. Alaska is doing both of them at the same time. And nobody knows what thats going to mean. Nobody knows. Theres a lot of speculation as to what thats going to mean. But nobody knows. A lot of whats going to happen in tomorrows elections is pretty certain already. But a lot of it is completely, really, really high up there in the air. Hold that thought. Here we go, here we go, here we go. Fifty omaha set hut losing feeling in my toes nothing beats that new car smell chicken parm you taste so good nationwide is on your side mmm mmm mmm mm mmm mm mmmmmm [mony mony by billy idole she cokicks in on car stereon[sing dont stop now come on mony come on yeah i say yeah yeah yeah yeah yeah yeah yeah cause you make me feel like a pony so good like your pony so good ride the pony the sentra, with bose audio and nissanconnect technology. Spread your joy. Nissan. Innovation that excites. Vrj. Headi ining into this weeke democratic governor ma loyal has been holding onto his seat there. This week, president obama campaigned for dan maloy, one of the few Campaign Events that the president has asked to take part in late in this election sierkle. Facing a republican challenger, hes also facing an independent candidate on the ballot named joseph visconti. Dan maloy has benefitted from the fact that hes had two candidates. If anything, hes been siphoning off support thats been good news for democrat dan maloy. Or at least it was good news right up until this weekend when e when this happened. A political earth quake today as independent democratic kbov nor suspended. He pledged his support to challenger, tom foley. It wasnt about me. It was, really, about how we were going to take the state back. I had to make the call and pull the trigger. Joe tells me to decide came saturday afternoon after seeing a Public Policy polling poll showing democratic governor ahead of him by three percentage points. The two men in private sard, hes not asking for anything in return for the endorsemented. Did you say mothers house . Yes, moms house. The independent in the race called the opponent over to his mothers house. My mom says youre okay. The independent guy cannot drop out of this race completely, but hes instrukted his supporters to, instead, vote for the republican challenger. This has been one of those weird election cycles where we have lots and lots and lots of tie races all over the country. A lot of the toptiered races are too close to call. Its remarkable, or uninteresting or unviable third party candidates, suddenly, are imbued with the power to change these very important elections. Steve, thank you very much for being here. Can you take us through some of these parts where theres a Third Party Role . Theres some really interesting races for a viert of reasons. You mentioned connecticut dwov nors race. Let eelg es take a look at a libertarian. His name is adrian wiley. This is the third candidate in florida. This is charlie kryst runing against rick skoet. It looks like hes pulling more votes. Why is that . What seems to be happening is voters who have turned down rick scott and dont want to reelect him. Theyre using this as their protest vehicle. Thats why he cemeseems to be d so well. Now, take a look at this. Heres the polling average in north carolina. One of these razorthin areas in north carolina. This e this is a race where the liberer eartarian had confers on the right. A tea Party Opponent in the primary who was endorszed by rand paul. He had some Serious Problems in the primary. Heres shawn ha. That could with significant. This is amanda swafford. The key here is it triggers that runoff which wouldnt be held until january. The key to whether they get to 50 or not is amanda swafford. The expectation is more of this 3. 2 goes to purdue than nunn. The important thing is you might not only have the libertarian candidate going to a runoff. You also have the libertarian candidate being a king maker if they decide to manipulate their support in whatever way they can. Thank you so much. I should tell you in terms of our coverage form night,lots more steve and our coverage starts tomorrow night at 6 00s tern time e time. Ill be here alongside Steve Matthews plus a cast of thousands. Its tomorrow starting at 6 00 eastern. I couldnt be more excited. Weve got lots more ahead tonight. Including a little more election news. Stay with us. Thats ahead. Stay with us. 6 e theres confidence. Then theres trusting your vehicle maintenance to ford service confidence. Our expertise, technology, and high quality parts means your peace of mind. Its no wonder last year we sold over three million tires. And during the big tire event, get up to 140 in mailin rebates on four select tires. Everyone has questions about money. You know, i think about money kind of a lot. Moneys freedom. Moneys always on my mind. Credit cards. Mortgage. Debt. 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For the whole weekend [ snoring ] [ male announcer ] zzzquil, the non habit forming sleep aid that helps you sleep easily and wake refreshed. Because sleep is a beautiful thing. That helps you sleep easily and wake refreshed. Really. Its not worth it. No worries. I got this. A 2. 7 gigahertz turbo processor. Kevlar fiber durability. Turbo charge for up to 8 hours of battery in just 15 minutes. Introducing droid turbo by motorola. New Jersey Governor Chris Christie has spent a third of his second term out thurping. Hes spending his election day eve making it count in four New England States with an additional detour to the midwest. It turns out to be a bpretty interesting one, the democrat is facing backlash from leading lip e liberals over our controversial decision to restructure the states system. The second stop was New Hampshire. Chris christie has gone to New Hampshire five times since june to stump. After New Hampshire, Chris Christie headed to e connecticut. And that was before the independent e dent in that race was dropping out and who drove his support behind tom foles y. Then it was off to maine for governor Chris Christie. Cutle rurks has been running a distant third. With him half in and half out, nobodys quite sure whats going to happen in the main governors race. But Chris Christie was there tonight to try to make it happen for republican incumbent paula page. Busy day in new edge labd e land. Chris christie did not make an appearance in vermont vermont today. That would be futile. But what about mae ma . No Chris Christie trip to try to help charlie baker. In a state like massachusetts, why is that governor ship potentially in a state as blue as massachusetts is. Mar thae cokley has lost a big lead over charlie baker. Yes, in mae ma. And new england, maybe tomorrow, could go from just having one republican governor to having five . New england . Really . Joining us now for the interview is Massachusetts Governor devall patrick. Rachel, i was looking forward to being on. Before your gloomy introduction. Ill look at the races tonight. I see five of them, five out of six, in reach for the republicans. Why is this happening in such a democratic part of the country. I think it may be with due respect, youre paying more atex to tension to polls than whats happening on the ground. Weve got a really strong Grass Roots Organization and have been working them really hard for the last weeks and months. And we have to execute tourm. Were not taking anything for granted. But people beat money and advertising and pollser time. In terms of the mae ma race, fliert one of them has won in the past. What acounts for the democrats starting off this race before the republican primary, right . Starting off this race with such a big advantage. And then seeing it get so close. How do you explain the massachusetts appetite . Well, the first thing i would say to you is we have more unenrolled ind pen dents than republicans combined. Its not what people expected of us, but, in fact, were quiet discerning about who our leadership is in all of our statewide races. We have 16 years of republican governors before i became governor eight years ago. And i think the contrast of what weve been able to prodouseuce the laes agt years, where weve had a series of governors more interested in having the job than doing it. You mentioned that governor christie hasnt been here in massachusetts recently, bud e but his money has been. In fact, the Republican Governors Association spent more money in the last week here than martha cokley has spent in the last year. Its all been about tearing her down. Thats where the grass roots is going to come in handy and raise its righteous head and vote for goef thats about them, about people and not about money. If you were return e running for reelection this year, it seems to me youd be running away with it. What do you want to do next . What do you see as your political future . Youre very kind. Its been a great, fulfilling, challenging eight years. Im proud of the fact that we lead the nation in student achievemented and veter ran services and energy efficiency, that were at a 25year high in employment. Our budgets are balanced and you can marry any knowledge in the state that jowl wish. But this is the first and only elected office i had. I promszed my wife after eight years wed get acquainted again still interested in being acquainted with me. So im looking forward to doing something in the private sector. I dont know if anybodys going to lobby your wife before they lobby you, but you are going to get drafted for something. Weve got lots ahead, including news from wyoming that will make your stomach go flip ety flop ety flip. Come on yeah i say yeah yeah yeah yeah yeah yeah yeah cause you make me feel like a pony so good like your pony so good ride the pony the sentra, with bose audio and nissanconnect technology. Spread your joy. Nissan. 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Open an optimizer plus account from synchrony bank. Visit myoptimizerplus. Com to open an account. Service. Security. Savings. Synchrony bank engage with us. [ highpitched ] nailed it if youre in the news business, and you subscribe to wire services, you dont get a fresh headline for every piece of news that comes in. They lump the latest news under a standard, generic head line, like Oregon Election or iowa weather forecast. And all the news that comes in under that topic gets filed under that generic head line. Heres something thaw dont want to be a whole category of news. Nuclear missteps. Thats a whole category that the ap has had to create in order to keep track of all the news about Nuclear Missteps in our country. Tonight they put that on late breaking news that another two air force commanders in narnl of Nuclear Weapons have been fired. There are three units that maintain our intergalactic missiles. Late toint the air force has announced its firing the commander of the missile squadron. Thats latebreaking news about the air force. If it sounds familiar, its because nuclear mishaps are a thing now, they keep happening. Nine were fired for their role in a cheating scandal. Hundreds cheating on proficiency exams. Cheating on illegal drug use. What could go wrong . The number two officer in charge of all Nuclear Weapons being arrested for using counterfeit chips at a gambling casino . Getting fired for drunken antics on a trip to russia. And it wasnt all that long that the air force accidentally flew six armed missiles from minot in north dakota to barksdale, before anybody realized they were missing. But tonight we have another message in the nuclear category. Two were relieved of duty tonight, reported by the associated press. There are only three bases that handle them in this country. 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I know youre too excited to sleep tonight, but you have to sleep tonight because you have to work late tomorrow night. Ill sleep on thursday. Thanks, rachel. We have new polls tonight, and they dont make it any easier to predict which party will control the fight to control the senate. Midterm madness goes up against the clock. With less than 24 hours to go to the midterms its off to the
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