Page 364 - Composition News Today

>> they tend to live in the same areas, so theyre around people who support donald trump. it doesnt make sense. >> mary katharine, what about the people in the suburbs of philadelphia or northern virginia who might be trump supporters but dont want to be judged? >> there can be marginal differences about that. anytime polling is within three points in a lot of these states it can be often. it doesnt have to be because of a giant hidden vote. if there is a hidden white worki working class vote th...

Ohio, up until now -- >> up until now. >> has always been a big battleground state. what do you look for there? >> ohio has become a must-win state. it is a state where noncollar white voters will be in the electorate, maybe more. again, it will measure how bad the blue collar erosion is for hillary clinton, how dominant donald trump is. it will measure african-american turnout. if its very close, it will tell us we probably have a lot of close state also in the maecidw. >> is it no longer the b...

Her to really rely very heavily on places like north carolina and florida to shut trump down because michigan is the wall. >> do you want to see david do that? so give her michigan. >> give him michigan. >> thats what i mean. give him michigan. >> this is where the groundwork that the hillary clinton campaign has done kicks in. >> theyre doing their operation. i get it. >> that matters. >> it does, unless you have a wave of enthusiasm that overwhelms organizations. so if he wins michigan and he ...

What it will take to heal, to have something positive come out of this? >> there is a lot of evidence we wont heal. because the polarization comes out of the electorate rather than just from donald trump for example it will continue. in 1964 when barry gold loses in a landslide election that conservatism doesnt go away in the republican party. it is remade through ronald reagan about a decade later. im not sure we will heal these divisions. i think they are real and deep rooted. >> a lot of peop...

Nevada and florida. it seems like were seeing similar trends in both those states when you compare what the numbers say in early votes, versus lets say a model or polling would predict about the composition of the electorate. spell it out for us. >> were seeing far greater early vote numbers than most of the main stream models are predicting. latinos in particular in florida, but nevada are overperforming what the polls are reporting. but theres also dan smith at the university of florida, 30% o...

States when you compare what the numbers say in early votes versus a model or polling would predict about the composition of the electorate. spell it out for us. >> absolutely. were seeing far greater early voting numbers than most of the mainstream models are predicting latinos, in particular, in florida and also in nevada are overperforming theres also the data polling from dan smith at the university of florida put out that 30% of the latinos were either new registrants or no voting history. ...

Republican nominee in the history of polling. he is potentially facing a record gap among hispanics, and of course all republicans usually have big gaps among african-americans. so, any change in the composition of the electorate has a huge impact on the result. if youre talking about north carolina or florida it really is the same equation to a large extent which is the democrats are counting on improvements relevant to 12 among college whites, and latinos to offset some signs that african-amer...

Electorate is the single largest factor and it is partially because the divergence between the key groups is so big. in the abc/"washington post" tracking poll by more than ronald reagan beat walter mondale and that is astounding. every additional point of turnout he generates from that group is really significant. on the other hand, hillary clinton has a really big advantage among latinos and minorities and running better than any other democrat nominee. even small differences in how large of t...

Divergence in this election between the vote of noncollege whites. in 08 president obama ran seven points among college whites and its the biggest gap ever. its probably going to be double or more. shes going to run 15 points better. so, in a state like north carolina where you have a white collar suburban vote that is trending democratic outside of raleigh and charlotte, how does that compare to the rural parts of the state where donald trump may set records in this election? the composition of...

Were five days. donald trump and hillary clinton making their final pitches to these voters in the days left in the election. what are their strategies? lets bring back our panel of political experts david gregory and ron brownstein. ron, lets look at voter composition. thats something you like to do. theyre, both, obviously, trying to appeal to minority voters. lets look at where the challenges are. lets first look at african-americans. as we have been talking about, the early voting suggests t...