Page 172 - Methodology News Today

Wins thats a much bigger problem than the polling being amiss. thats my personal view. >> the stakes here are more important than the polling methodological stakes. >> if i had to trade a polling miss for trump not winning, that would be an easy call. but i feel very confident in the polling industry. the polling in the primaries, which is tougher, really only had a few misses. you have so many outlets that are polling, so many resources dedicated to getting the polling right. so many outlets co...

Confident that polling as an industry has the tools and the infrastructure and the emphasis and prioritization and methodology to do a good job of predicting. coming up a historically black church burns with the words vote trump painted on the side.

>> one thing you are not using are these state by state polls of candidates, one candidate versus the other candidate. its economic conditions and more general political conditions in the country. >> yeah, exactly right. this has nothing to do with the polls, a totally different methodology, coming at it from a completely different angle, i am an economist, its the economy, stupid. we use the state of the economy in ohio, in florida, in wisconsin. and based on that, we, and accounting for politi...

Surprising at face value, when you dig in deeper, and you look at these early voters and see this crossover, i will say, these are voters who are actually, weve seen evidence that they are returning to the republican fold down ticket. we did look at the u.s. senate race, and thats still a very close race, but we are seeing these republican voters crossing over and voting for secretary of state clinton who are then going back and voting republican in the senate race, so it really is an interestin...

Key and it goes to the third party. what is your level, what is the level on your key for a third? the collective 30 party vote and at a 5% frethreshold and that mt be the that might flip it for you if it did fade? >> check, as usual you are right on point. obviously we dont know what gary johnson is going to poll. its just gary johnson. my typical methodology they will use is to take the highest polling numbers for a third party and cut it in half. that worked invariably. gary johnson was polli...

Methodology, coming at it from a completely different angle, i am an an economist, its the economy, stupid. we use the state of the economy in ohio, in florida, in wisconsin. and based on that, we, and accounting for political dynamics, we predict who is going to win each state. >> lets take a look at one of the charts thats easy to make sense of, even for non-economists, and thats the gasoline prices, how gas prices affect a presidential election. so you look at 1980, and thats jimmy carter run...

Trump movement that weve been seeing, really, from the outset of this general election, and for that reason, its not as surprising as you might think. >> and tom, just quickly, before you go, i know people are tweeting all over the country right now and texting this. the methodology of how you know the early voter has voted. >> so the department of elections actually produces a report every day saying heres a list of people who have voted. people often hear this and get a little frightened. it d...

At is imaging computers, recovering deleted files. when they image it, its essentially making copies of it and preserving the original for court evidence. and once they work off the copies, what theyll do is use sophisticated software or in the old days we used to call it search terms to try to narrow down what e-mails may be of interest to them. >> there might be duplicates within the 650,000 e-mails and theyll just automatically throw out because they have nothing to do with anything? >> exact...

Explain to people the methodology that survey monkey uses. >> sure. so the key to any good survey these days is a good random sample, and we have the luxury at survey monkey of having 3 million respondents a day to the survey that are sent out by friends that you may have, kind of, what to bring to a barbecue. what to bring to another party or your employer or some company you buy something from. and what were doing is doing random sampling on the back of those surveys and getting estimates on a...

Through all of the breaks. >> can i read from franks column or do we not have time? >> steve kornacki, youre one of the few people on the face of the earth last week that said it isnt over and say theres still a pathway forward. you look at the polls and even look at the polls before this blew up on friday, and it looked like there was a natural tightening, whats it looking like now? >> we got this abc news/"washington post" poll overall at one-point race. looks like what seems to be driving tha...