The careful counting of every ballot. Mr. Biden asks for every ballot to be counted, mr. Trump says he will go to the Supreme Court. Good morning. The news flowing every hour. Francine lacqua, it is pretty much as we expected, and we have not only seen the political results but the market gyrations in the last 24 hours. Francine tom, there are two outcomes the markets were fearful about, and those outcomes can much more possible in the last 24 hours. First, the joe biden presidency with a Republican Senate. We could have that. It is still mathematically possible. The other one, of course come a very contested election. If you listen to what President Trump said about an hour and 10 minutes ago, it is very clear that he wanted to go to the Supreme Court, ask that the Supreme Court step in, because unclear why, tom, because we are still counting votes. There is absolutely no evidence that something has been done wrong, but certainly fighting words from President Trump, and that will put the markets on edge. Tom we welcome you all worldwide, markets and the green pure and the nasdaq a little bit better, a huge tech surge coming off what first looked like a trump wave, and that has reversed nicely. Let us listen to the two candidates in the last hour. Pres. Trump we will be going to the u. S. Supreme court. We want all voting to stop. Anyont want them to find ballots at 4 00 in the morning and add them to the list. We will end this. Mr. Biden we believe we are on wisconsin and michigan. Way, it is going to take time to count the votes. We are going to win pennsylvania tom really quite something to see come and i cannot emphasize enough the originality in this moment, for the nation, you go back to 1888, Grover Cleveland losing to harrison and what was an incredibly close election, and of course 1960 as well. With futures up 19, i want to step away from the markets right now. Yields, yes, they moved income other than that, it is turning, waiting to see the news workout. I am working bankers hours, they are working political hours. Kevin cirilli come our chief washington correspondent come of course providing huge value, rick davis, republican perspective, who served with senator john mccain. I want to go to one thing, kevin, that i saw from chip at the New York Times, 13,000 mailin ballots in erie, pennsylvania, the ratio was 51 biden. Does april like you assume that all the mailin ballots will have a start ratio like that . Kevin well, every county was a county that was flipped in 2016, that trump was able to beat Hillary Clinton in that obama carried, so erie county incredibly important, and the data that has come in from the early mailin ballots have suggested that typically democrats were trending to have cast their early votes in advance, compared to republicans. Just within the last halfhour, though, the Biden Campaign releasing a statement, President Trumps statement was outrageous and unprecedented, but i can tell you from my own reporting is that President Trump might leave washington, d. C. In the next couple of days, tom. You can expect to see him back in battleground states, like pennsylvania, like North Carolina we still dont have a result. Georgia come another key battleground state, michigan, wisconsin. All of these types of dynamics now as we head into overtime, essentially, for lack of a better phrase. Both of the campaigns will be meeting with their legal teams, and this is reminiscent of 2000. I would say this if you are trying to figure out where this thing is going, for how long this could take, in 2000, it took until december 12 of 2004 the Supreme Court to issue a ruling. So while we might wait a couple of days to get a result in the battlegrounds, tom, like in erie county, it could take a couple of weeks for it to make its way through the courts. Francine rick davis, when you look at the latest electoral vote count and i am looking to make sure i have the latest 238, trump 213. We are expecting the account in michigan, georgia, to take a little bit of time. Is it all at play now, or do you have a hunch of who could become president . . Rick i think both of these candidates could become president today. Right now, donald trump leads in georgia and North Carolina. All four of those states have not been officially called, but they probably get divided up, which means the winner of this win two of the three miss white midwestern states up for grabs. This is a tight race in the Electoral College, they have been tight race is inside the states, and even the National Numbers are not that far apart. Race,s is a pretty close and it is far from being over. There are millions of votes in key battleground states that have not been counted yet. Start with mr. Davis, because he is better looking than us and Kevin Cirilli. Would say that the president is doing better in the National Popular vote than he did four years ago, he took 46. 1 percent, final count, and now he has 48. 5 . That may come down a little bit, but can you state that mr. Trump has done better this time around, with a national vote, than last time . Rick yeah, and i think in this case, everybody voting floats all the boats. In other words, we have had a massive voter turnout today, and it has been building over the last month with these early votes. So what you are seeing is people who have not voted in two president ial elections, three president ial elections came out and voted in this one, and that help donald trump it helped improve his numbers with voters areas,r, people in urban votes that he did not get last time, but it also helps support joe bidens race, and joe biden over performed with the elderly, which allowed him to compete in places like arizona so well. Tom with kevin, i am going to go to nevada. I know you have been covering that. Aaron kessler reported for bloomberg. 67 counted. 1. 5 7 million early balance. They have the same 1. 0 9 million counted so far, and just 30,000 between the two candidates. That really shows, kevin, the tension of these mailin ballots, isnt it . Kevin it is harry reid versus Sheldon Adelson and clark county , where, just specifically, overwhelmingly, that states population, where las vegas will be so incredibly important to turn out there. I would bring out the senate spread, tom, in particular, because regardless of what we know this morning is that the senate is going to be much more close. We do not know the precise numbers. We actually will not know the precise tally because of the runoff until early january, but what we do know is that people like senator joni ernst won. She is the republican incumbent in iowa. Steve gaines in montana, a he won. An incumbent, Lindsey Graham was able to win his seat in south carolina. Defeatingark kelly republican senator Martha Mccann sally martha mcsally. Trending too far to the left as of now could we still come of course, have a handful of seeds remaining. Kevin, what happened in florida, and what happened to the latino vote . Catholicll, cuban and americans clearly vote for President Trump, and the dynamics of the hispanic vote, as republicans have said for quite some time, is not a monolithic community, and that was on display with regards to florida. The president was also able to perform well in the more inland parts of the state. He was also able to make some inroads, quite frankly, with senior citizens, a constituency that joe biden has been trending for for quite some time here state for mustwin President Trump, and if you did not win florida, we would not be having any if he did not win florida, we would not be having any of these conversations are his path to 270 still exists. Francine rick, so, you know, President Trump has that he wants the Supreme Court to step in. What would he ask them to step in on . He will probably resurrect a case that was brought to the Supreme Court last week, originally from pennsylvania, but likely would include North Carolina and a couple of other states, and what that was was a request to not kil count ballots that arrived after election day, in other words, you mailed it, there was a delay in getting it there, and it arrived on the fourth or fifth. The Supreme Court chose not to hear that case. Now, they also said if it becomes a problem, bring it back to us, so there is no doubt that donald trump is going to bring that case back to them. The reality is it does not stop the counting of the votes that are already underway in any of those states, but it would actually put into play any of those votes that came in after the election. The reality is that that is usually a very small amount compared to the seven or eight or 10 million ballots that will be counted as part of the normal election day activities. Tom rick davis, Michael Grimm bomb over at the times, Chris Wallace at fox was involved in the first debate as well. Here is mr. Wallace, this is an extremely flammable situation, and the president just threw a match into it. He has not won those states. Rick davis, these are the comments made an hour ago by the president. Withinvis, how republican politics is the president right now . Rick you will see a lot of distancing from officials in the republican who are still at risk in this election. As Kevin Cirilli pointed out, there are a number of senate races that have not been finalized. Veryd trump staking out a lonely position, but it is a place he knows well. He has gone it alone as president since the day he was elected. He really does not care about other peoples attitudes, relevant to his actions, and he will prosecute what he can to try to preserve power for himself, and the rest of the party sort of be damned in the process. Francine thank you both are to our chief washington correspondent Kevin Cirilli and Bloomberg Contributor rick davis. Tom, we will also look at the polls, what they are telling us. I have seen some analysis actually predicting this very outcome. We will have to see what the margin of error was. Coming up next, we will speak with mark, ubs global chief investor. We will put the market in context we will put the election in context for the markets. This is bloomberg. This is bloomberg. Francine this is bloomberg surveillance. Tom and francine from london and new york. We are following election coverage, President Trump has claimed victory, saying he will go to the Supreme Court. Joe biden saying he still has hopes. Biden then of course winning arizona, the first state he has flipped from President Trump. There is a bit of movement on the treasury. I also wanted to show you what is happening with the renminbi two currencies that could move the most on the back of a Trump Presidency win, if he gets another four years. I want to talk about the reinert tweet, trump claiming victory this early is like disembarking which we do not recommend. Haefele,s is mark global chief Investment Officer at ubs. The Market Driving a sentiment they did not want to see come a very contested election, which we could have, or a joe biden presidency with a Republican Senate. What is the mood of the market right now . Mark well, look, i think if you take one step back from this historic and very interesting race, which looks like it is all about the path to the Electoral College, really what the market theocused on is the path to covid recovery, and, you know, it looks like, when you look at futures, the way the nasdaq is trading up in the russell is trading down, the way treasuries are moving, it looks like there is still a lot of faith that banks support will continue to support risk assets, but that the recovery could be a little slower, and so the stayathome trade might be working a little better than some of the more cyclical stocks right now. Do,cine what do you though, if you focus on the election come what do you do with renminbi and other emerging currencies, such as the mexican peso . I think that right now, we are getting this dollar safety trade, but we really think come over the medium term, that will start to abate, because the dynamics in the United States and the recovery path for the United States are such that we think that, you know, china is a winner here. They are on a recovery path, and also, europe is going to be stronger. Will look context, we to fade certain overtime especially some of the Dollar Strength we are seeing. Francine mark, if we have a joe biden president with a Republican Senate, does it mean that we may get very little stimulus, you know, if any at all . Mark i think that is one of the things that the market is looking at here, is less stimulus than we would have had to molest fiscal stimulus than less fiscal stimulus then we would have had, so that is one of the factors that is playing in here. All of that is based on we thought that the campaigns were likely to do, so this is going to play out much more on what kind of a stimulus bill could get through, given whatever with. That we end up tom mark, as we move through this process, we have to look at the overall economy and the debt buildup that we see. We do not know what the stimulus will become a etc. , but have you guys changed your view for 2021, or aren electoral gas, you frozen as an institution until you see the outcome . Kailey i would say mark i would say that the mediumterm picture has not changed all that much. It is rare that an election in and of itself matters so much for what the markets are doing in a global sweep of the economy, and, you know, it looks like that is going to be less of a chance now, but when you look out to the middle of the year, we are looking at a world that is more digital, that is more local, and the world overall is one that is moving more towards sustainable assets. So in that picture, things have not changed that much. The debt dynamic is not going to change, however, this outcome plays out, and therefore, that is one of the reasons, if you are concerned about the debt side of the equation, that is why a dollar weakness is something to play into next year. Tom mark, thank you so much, mark haefele with us, from ubs wealth management, a relatively short visit this morning. We have got much more coming up, dovetailing markets into the movable piece of political news we see from america. Joyce chang of jp morgan will join us, chair of global research. We will do that at 5 30 new york time. Red and green on the screen. Nasdaq 100 up 2. 6 . Stay with us, election 2020. Election 2020. Tom we continue our coverage of the american election. Francine lacqua and tom keene, a quick data check here, and we will get back to more good conversation. Yields move, curve flattening, and there is a broader real yield, a deeper, negative yield. I notice as well, francine, the german 10year yield has worked down a more recent, larger, negative yield. It is off the radar, but to me, that is important. Red and green on the screen. Nasdaq 100 with that huge serve, what was it, i lost track of time, 12 hours ago, a pullback, and nasdaq 100 showing a Huge Movement versus a flat Dow Jones Industrial average. One other thing, francine, know you want to comment on, oil with a lift two days in a row. Francine actually what i picked out this morning are two currencies that can really move. I know a lot has been baked in, a lot has been priced in, but i want to show you the renminbi and the mexican peso. They could move if we have President Trump for another four years, and just in general, tom, if you look at, you know, the two election scenarios i could actually haunt the market, and we have been talking about it for quite some time, is a contested election, or a joe biden presidency with a Republican Senate. These are two things that look more likely that we need to keep an eye on. We look at states where we can vote file or taken while, tempting for the moment, the Electoral College so far, biden still seems to be safer, but of course, it is very close. Coming up on bloomberg surveillance, we speak with david herro, Harris Associates chief Investment Officer. I am looking forward to that interview, coming up one hour from now, 6 30 a. M. In new york, 11 30 a. M. In london. This is bloomberg. Don. This is bloomberg. Francine this is bloomberg surveillance. Here is the latest on the u. S. Election. Democrat joe biden has won the usual republican state of arizona. He has a small lead in the Electoral College, but there are still key battlegrounds yet to announce. President trump has won the swing states of florida, ohio, and held onto texas. Pennsylvania may not report final results for days. Biden is optimistic and confident of a victory. On biden we believe we are track to win this election. We are feeling real good about wisconsin and michigan. Way, its going to take time to count the votes. Were going to win pennsylvania. Francine President T