Some signs of nervousness is also showing for the banks. Bonds are rallying a little bit so that means yields come in and that weighs on the bank so thats a little bit of a pause in the cyclical rally. How does the market really react to what the economists are seeing . They say we will be good in the second half of next your but have a really tough spot between here and there. Have the markets price that in . Abigail the markets do not appear to be pricing it in all that much. As you know, some of the longer term charts are starting to show the possibility that equities in particular are stretched and there could be some sort of sharp pullback for the end of this month or the beginning of next year. That could very well reflect the air pocket the jobs report for november is very disappointing suggesting december and january could be worse. It appears theres some sort of awkward middle ground in the First Quarter of 2021 and maybe beyond. The optimism that the vaccine will bring to the second half of next year and there are nascent signs of some choppy or volatile trading action and had perhaps. Theably a big dip bonds and yen. David thank you so much. We had more encouraging noises from washington about the compromise stimulus package. Mitch mcconnell is still apparently studying it. Wonderful to have you with us, do we know whats in this proposal . We do know whats in it was that i suspect he is studying to see whether they can get Something Like this through and get passed and signed but we know its a 908 billion and is the result of months of work from this Bipartisan Group stop there are things that republicans and democrats dont like in the bill which makes it truly a compromise. Bailoutsns dont like for the states and democrats dont like the fact that there is no 1200 relief checks like the cares act but congress is up against the pending deadlines in the next few days and few weeks. I would suspect we may see maybe not this week but maybe in the next week in terms of an agreement on a covid really wreckage. David if they come up with something in the next 10 days or two weeks, how quickly can some of that money be distributed . Thats one of the big things we still dont know. One of the sticking points about this in terms of the distribution of the to states and localities is the distribution formula. It is not only when the money would get out and how it would be distributed. Those are things that have to be debated and figured out. This Bipartisan Group thats been working on this has been trying to iron some of this out. Leadership has got their hands on it and it may change in the next few days. David what are the politics of this . Who comes out the hero and who comes out the goat . Leadership is getting numbers on this because of covid has gone up and people are suffering. We got federal unemployment ending the day after christmas on the moratorium on evictions ending new years eve. Those things are putting pressure on congress. Somebody said sums like students studying for a final exam, they are up against a deadline and thats why we may see something out of this. I dont think anybody in Congress Comes out will given the fact that its been several months of people suffering for them to potentially come up with a really package. In any case, it will probably not be big enough according to democrats and probably too big according to republicans. David all eyes are on georgia and the runoff election. Over the weekend, we had a lot of activity in georgia including donald trump going there at a rally once again condemning the election and condemning the republican governor of georgia for not convening a special session of the legislature to overrule the results. What do you make of that . Tocondemned the governor challenge the 2020 primary. This is what republicans fear is that the president will remain after he leaves office, powerful enough to impact their primary races. The big concern for republicans this now is who wins decides who has the power in the senate for the next two years. Is all the president s focus on the election being stolen going to dampen turnout amongst republicans and hand this thing to democrats . Tight whenbe fairly we look at the polls, both of these races are tight at this point. David everyone says its a matter of turnout and we often hear that. It is a complicated message that the president is trying to deliver. On the one hand, he says about again. A little contradictory and a hard case to make. Has got republicans wringing their hands. They do any people to get out and this is a race for turnout and they are spending a lot of money to get their voters out and theyre also being given a contrary message which is dont bother coming out to vote because its rigged anyway. Weve and heard the president trying to make the case at the rally. Candidates,senate three of them debating and senator perdue who did not show up at the debate over the weekend. Ans a really odd picture at empty podium where purdue should have been. Then Kelly Loeffler and warnock were out there debating this weekend. David what happens when somebody doesnt show up for a debate . Is there a percentage in that one way or the other . I assume the incumbent decided that he wanted to give more attention to his opponents . They said he would have more to lose by showing up so it can be a dangerous calculation. Insaw that with joe crowley 2018 when he didnt show up to debate. He sent a surrogate in that case and that is a dangerous proposition. I was surprised purdue did that but we have to say he was ahead in the general election and didnt get over the 50 in the polls remain tight. He made a calculation we will see if it pays off. David lets turn to the president elect for a moment. Team announcing his health led by the designee for health and Human Services, how the air becerra, the attorney general from california. ,ts an interesting combination a crackerjack scientist coming back, dr. Fauci, weve got him and weve got people who just know government were not necessarily scientists. Becerra has really led the effort to defend and protect the Affordable Care act from his position as attorney general in california. That is something that joe biden and democrats talked about a lot during the election cycle. More appointment matter during the pandemic when you talk about health and Human Services and the cdc and these other positions he is appointing because we are in the midst of a pandemic and what to me is important is that he is really making his appointment based on the question of expertise. Its also a combination of that and insider understanding of how washington works to move policy. Very different appointments then we saw in the early stages of trumps administration. David thank you so much. Its always a treat to talk to you. In the meantime, we will talk about reddish negotiators who say they are down to a matter of hours to get a deal done on brexit. Is balance of power on Bloomberg Television and radio. David this is balance of power on Bloomberg Television and radio. We turn now to Mark Crumpton for the first word news. Mark americas top Infectious Disease expert is warning that the Christmas Season could be worse than thanksgiving in terms of the spread of covid19. Dr. Anthony fauci joint new York Governor Andrew Cuomo edit news briefing today and said january could be a dark time for our country. The United States has had 14. 8 million cases according to Data Collected by Johns Hopkins university and bloomberg news. The United States is slapping new sanctions on 14 chinas officials over there crackdown on dissent in hong kong. Andmeasure bands travel freezes assets which is part of President Trumps effort to file pressure on china and the Ruling Communist Party in the final weeks in office. President elect biden has said he expect to keep pressure on beijing over hong kong. The u. S. Supreme court is planning to take up an appeal from some oregon parents who say transgender students should use locker rooms and bathrooms of the gender they were assigned at birth. The federal Appeals Court in San Francisco had upheld the policy that allows transgender students to use facilities that align with their gender identity. Parents sued over the policy in 2017, saying it caused embarrassment and stress. Minutes,he last few this is concerning brexit and we have news concerning whats going on over there. Monitor ittinue to and bring you that information in just a few minutes. Back to you. David lets pick up on that theme. The European Union says they will have to get a deal by this wednesday if they have a deal at all and british negotiators say that may be too long a time. They want to get it done today if they can get it done at all. To give us a sense of whats going on, we welcome sarah huhn. Thank you so much for being with us. You have the inside scoop on this. Where is this negotiation now . Do we have a sense . Beennestly, things have stuck and going around in circles for quite a long time. The issues that are the stumbling blocks are not new issues. They are issues that were discussed last month, issues being discussed in october, september and before them. And before then. Its a question about a living about a level playing field. Is something the eu is distressed about. They are also talking about fisheries and tied up with all this is how you can ensure that the u. K. s sticks to what it says it will do. The News Headlines we have been receiving over the last few days and the last few hours have been indicating that a deal may be done or the deal may break down. It wouldnt surprise me if we continue like this beyond wednesday. The eu is asking for a resolution by wednesday because we have the eu summit coming up at the end of the week. Negotiationsh eu and i think particularly in this case, there is every chance that things could go all the way to the wire. We are talking about the end of the year. With a pinch of salt any headlines that suggest a deal is just about to be done. They have to have ratification, dont they, with the countries . They cant literally go to midnight on december 31, can they . Argumentas always the why a deal had to be done by september and why a deal had to be done by october to allow time for legal text to be drawn up. This is a big treaty and it needs to be translated into the eu languages and then ratified by the European Parliament and by the u. K. Parliament as well has signed off by the eu heads of state. Isknow the u. K. Parliament already thinking about pushing recess. Ir christmas we know that European Parliament is thinking about quitting right at the end of september the end of december. The deadline is not fixed and 11 onallete 00 or 10 to the 31st of december is a little late. I think its entirely possible that we do get things dragging on the on this week even though both sides have indicated they want to get a deal done this week. David are the two sides prepare for not getting a deal done . If they go to a wto will they be in a position to do that on january 1 . If there isnt a deal by this thursday at the summit, that will be part of the summit discussions is putting in place no deal preparations. For the u. K. , i would argue that the u. K. Is not even organized for a deal because we still have a big question over what happens at the border. We dont really have the border infrastructure to deal with the regulatory checks that will need to be done even assuming a deal is done. If, on top of that, you are tariffs,otas and thats the difference between getting a deal and not adding a deal is that without a deal, tariffs would be imposed on eu exports and imports. Then it really adds to the sense of chaos that has been threatened at the end of this year. David whether or not the United Kingdom and europe on the other hand are prepared for a no deal brexit, are investors really prepared for that possibility . We had seen the pound strengthening and the London Stock Exchange was strengthening. Caughtr if they will get if there is not a deal. I think the markets have made the assumption that there will be a deal. We have seen that reflected in the stronger pound over the last few weeks against the euro. There are some nerves about whether a deal is forthcoming. Our assumption is that if it ends up being no deal, then there will be something of a market upset and that will take the pound somewhat weaker against the euro and against the dollar. Also, there will probably be an impact on the ftse. Sterling is generally positive for the ftse. Overall, the negative of a no deal would be damaging for u. K. Stocks. Investors are understandably cautious. We still feel that on balance, a deal is likely but for a long time, we have had a 50 chance of a deal, a 30 chance of no thisand a 20 chance that can get kicked further down the road and we continue to have negotiations in 2021 which i dont think anybody wants to see. David i should say thats right. Lets bring it right back to home in the sense of banks. People who watch and listen to bloomberg are involved in the big banks. There was a lot of concern about what would happen in the city of london but i dont hear about that as much anymore. What will happen with the major banks . Warnings aboutig massive job losses in the city as a result of brexit. To be honest, we havent seen that. We have seen perhaps 1000 or so jobs being lost to the continent and certainly there have been many jobs created in centers like frankfurt, dublin, paris, madrid, luxembourg to address the issues. Early on, the Financial Center understood the u. K. Would no longer have access to the eu Single Market stop they would need to rely on equivalents. There is still a lot of uncertainty. The city of london has shown itself to be quite resilient. Europe is a massively important moret but the city is much than just being the Financial Center for europe. We run international, global Financial Center and benefiting asiathe rise in markets in and in other emerging regions. David thank you so much, great to have you with us. She is Standard Chartered head of europe and america research. Still ahead, codec surges back, its our stock of the hour and that is next. This is balance of power on Bloomberg Television and radio. David this is balance of power on Bloomberg Television and radio. Shares of kodak are serving are surging today. They have been cleared of any wrongdoing in obtaining a government loan to produce chemicals to be used in pharmaceuticals. Our colleague in london has the full story. Rise of around 80 per kodak at the high, taking the shares at twice. The once photography giant turn pharmaceutical ingredient manufacture that transformation of the company is a big story. Back in july, it was announced kodak had been awarded 706 he 5 million loan from the u. S. Government to help with that transformation. It was awarded on the defense the drugs act for that were in short supply during covid19. The stock surged on that news back in july but then there were thetions asked about how ceo received a huge number of Stock Options before multiple investigations were launched in one of the investigations we are hearing was from the Development Finance corporation is a federal agency and we are hearing that has wrapped up and found no evidence of wrongdoing. Thats why we are seeing a surgeon the stock but there is a question that remains. Thats whether or not loan that was awarded and then spent will actually make its way to kodak. David not to mention whether they can make the chemicals. Its a huge change for kodak stop they have been known forever, just for photography and now they will make chemicals for pharmaceuticals . Emma and thats the other question and not many analysts can say how the company will make that transformation. David its a fascinating story, thank you so much. Up next, a surge on top of a surge. How some people are characterizing the covid crisis and we will talk with Johns Hopkins about how bad its likely to get and what we can do about it in the meantime. This is balance of power on Bloomberg Television and radio. When you switch to xfinity mobile, youre choosing to get connected to the most Reliable Network nationwide, now with 5g included. Discover how to save up to 400 a year with shared data starting at 15 a month, or get the lowest price for one line of unlimited. Come into your local xfinity store to make the most of your mobile experience. You can shop the latest phones, bring your own device, or trade in for extra savings. Stop in or book an appointment to shop safely with peace of mind at your local xfinity store. David this is balance of power on Bloomberg Television and radio. We go now to Mark Crumpton for bloombergs first word news. Mark president elect biden is naming some of his most prominent allies to be part of his cabinet. He has picked James Clyburn for the chairman of the january 20 swearingen. The inaugural will also in vail for cochairs, michigan governor gretchen whitmer, Los Angeles Mayor garcetti, congresswoman lisa blunt rochester and louisiana congressman cedric richmond. The pandemic is expected to keep the inauguration far smaller than previous years. States including new york and nevada used outdated federal estimates during their planning for