[inaudible conversations] good evening, everyone. Can everybody hear me okay . No. Its not on. How about now . Thats better. Okay. Thank you for coming. Im laurie gillman, coowner of east city book shop and im really happy to welcome everybody e everyone here tonight. Anyone the crowd who is here for the first time . One person. Welcome. Were very glad youre here. Normally we have at least half the crowd who is here for the first time but this is very much a hometown crowd this evening so i hope everybody buy behaves for you. Were happy to have repeat customers back and some of you we see in here often and i just want to aheartfelt thank you for toe everybody for supporting the book store. Before we get started a few logistics. First, please silence your cellphones. I forget when i forget to do that eye say that i always regret it so please do that. Ill do that, too. Okay. Books are for sale upstairs for anyone who missed that at the cash registers. He you havent purchased a book yet and would like to, youll have time after the talk to purchase and come back down for signing. Carl will be signing right after the talk right here and final important detail, restrooms are upstairs to the left and past the registers at the back of the shop. Okay, moving on to tonights re event i think the majority of your here know carl. So im going to stick with the very short and sweet bio. Carl is chief washington correspondent for the New York Times. He also served as the washington editor of the times and chief congressional correspondent. He has reported on washington for morning three decades and still somewhat sane. Right . Carl has been a resident of capital hill for more than 30 years and is devoted to our neighborhood. He asked me to say that. His books confirmation bias leads us through the machinations and senate on both sides that brought is to present fraught system for judicial confirmation and well have time for audience questions. Please join me in welcoming carl hulse. [applause] wow. I have to say this is the kind of odd experience, to look out and know almost everybody in here quite well. So, sort of a very hometown, as she said, crowd. So its great. Im sure many of you are surprises ive actually written a book. Lots of familiar face us. Also want to know that cspan is recording and will air this show, so fugitive from justice or other problems, make sure you stay away from the camera. So we can all be on tv. Thank you, cspan. Im a huge cspan supporter, and do a lot with them. Theyre great people. So, talk about the book. Called confirmation bias and people have being asking be mountain the title and it was proposes by one modify agent, matt, who is a very good writer myself and when we were brainstorming title useds and had a whole bunch of them, some were terrible, and we settled on this one if thought it was perfect for a couple of reasons. Its snappy, people look at it and go, what does that actually mean . But it actually is also sums up what i think is a complicated aspect of this whole fight i talk about in the book. Both parties, democrats and republicans, feel they are aggrieved in these confirmation fights that have been going on since basically late of 60s, and to some degree theyre right. Both parties have been treated badly by the in confirmation process. Theyve been doing inflicted a lot of damage on each other. The nomination process, the senate and the government of the United States. I think its a big problem going forward. She messengered fraught. Thats a good way of thinking. Im going to talk about that later. But what happened here, everyone seize this on capitol hill from their own point of view. Everybody thinks theyve been taken advantage of, treated badly so what happened when they get the chance to do this to the other side, they do it, and thats what has happened here. Just become a corrupt process. What has happened since february heightened that bias through an extraordinary set of circumstances. When i say in the book i say this several times, when i say a snap decision on february 13, 2016, changed the course of history. Im not exaggerating and im going to prove it to you here tonight. February 13th, was very eventful day for a lot of reasons. The saturday before valentines day. It was during a congressional recess. I was at band practice. And that was, as we knoll now the day that Antonin Scalia died or was found indiana a luxury Hunting Lodge in west texas, under strange circumstances. I will say people always ask me about scalia, was he murdered or was there some Conspiracy Theory related to this . And ive talked to people at the highest levels of the u. S. Government at the time, none of the suspected any foul play or youll find this on the internet but he was an older guy, he liked to smoke and drink and wasnt very healthy, and no one suspected any foul play there. So, he is found dead in his room. The president ial suite at this resort, and that set up a lot of set off a lot of activity, as i said i was at band practice we finished. My phone blew up. What happened . Mitch mcconnell, the kentucky republic and majority leader of the senate at the time, was in the caribbean on what turned out to be his annual beach visit. I was surprised to hear that mitch had an annual beach visit. I think is a wife liked the beach. The secretary, and i say in the book, mitch just kind of isnt the guy you see hanging out at the resort and around the pool. But at the beach he was. So he got early word, as i describe in the book, kind of via the scalia family that this the justice had died. And so normally in these cases, its such a big figure on the national stage, theres a mourning period and everybody wants to talk about justice scalia, his cases, his life and work and leave the politics out of it, but of course, a lot of people here who have worked in congress and know about this, thats on the outside. On the inside everybody is talking about the politics and thats just the way it goes, but everybody usually theres a little its like good taste to hold back and not immediately Start Talking about politics and even in the media we kind of do it. Im sitting at hem trying to digest this and its like, can we really Start Talking about filling the vacancy now or have to wait a day . So, as it turns out, this was not one of those cases where anyone was willing to wait. Ill read a little bit about this from the book. So mitch is down in the caribbean. As he sat in his hotel room transfixes by report scalias odd death, mcconnells first thoughts with0 of his own accommodation we anyone know schoolarch beginning whiff day as lowly staffer in the shadow of three impressive officialed in department of justice. Of the otherwood were Lauren Silverman and robert bork. I remember just being completely dim integrated diintelligence and wit of these guys interacting with each other every morning. Mcconnell told me is in an interview about a year and a half ago the first person that i interviewed for the book because i knew i had to have Mitchell Mitchells story. Ten years later he was in the senate, enable to enthusiastically support scalias nomination by reagan. The two developed a warm personal relationship would dine together occasionally. For mcconnell the death of scalia represented a huge lot, quiet, clearly someone of the Oliver Wendell holmes, Thurgood Marshall class. A big deal. This being Mitch Mcconnell he quickly put a side personal emotion and could pragmatic include zero on another what matter, who and what would could. Next him i Second Thought was to turn to politic offered the situation, he said. The first thing that came into my mind was that i knew if the shoe was on the other foot, they wouldnt fill this vacancy. I knew it for sure. They, the democrats, pitching sitting mitch is sitting there in this caribbean suite, thinking if this happened and republican president , democratic senate, 11 month left in the president s term, the democrats would obviously not go along with it. Now i get asked this question a lot. What do i think democrats would have done in the same situation, because as we know it came up, biden, schumer, had in earlier talks kind of suggested they wouldnt do it which became a big talking point of the republicans during the whole fight. And my experience is the democrats would have totally caved because what that democrats do. They would not have been able to sustain this blockade. Just wouldnt have done it. Democrats are pro government. And well never know what would have happened and maybe im wrong but barny frank said, putting the republicans in charge of the government is like putting me in charge of the miss america contest. Ill do it but i wont be into it. So, i dont know what would have happened. Mitch mcconnell is thoroughly convinced that it would have been the same result. I dont think so. But he is now set in motion a really extraordinary chain of events. A lot is going on that night. This is a big night. Saturday night. So much going on. This is why things happen. So im sitting there at right before 6 00, and get this now famous email from the Majority Leaders Office that says, scalia died, we need to appreciate his service, but we Mitch Mcconnell says we also need to recognize that the democrats arent going to be able to fill the seat. So close to the election. We need to let the people decide who is going to fill the Supreme Court seat. 11 months left. February, obama is leaving january 20th the next year. So its not like the moving vans are in the circle of the white house. Theres a lot going on here. So, this night is extraordinary and everything that went on really explains hough this all played out. So, mcconnell is down there, there is a republican primary debate that night in south carolina. And this is a huge thing that drove everyones decisionmaking that day. So, as hes trying to weighing his choices on how to do this, mcconnell talks to josh holmes, who was his chief of staff, super sharp political operative. Now runs a private Strategy Firm here. He is on he phone with mcconnell and says, if youre going to do this strategy and totally prevent them from going forward, you need to do it really fast because theres a president ial primary debate that night, ted cruz is in it. Ted cruz is a former Supreme Court clerk, a lot of the judicial area committee, a lot of experience and if this becomes cruzs idea to block the nominee, the republicans arent going to want to do it because nobody wants to do ted crews bidding for him so thats why mcconnell acted so quickly. He needed to get out in front of this. So everybody is looking at scalias death, knowing its going to be a big thing at this debate and trying to strategize around it, and so another person who is strategizing around this debate is donald trump. So, don mcgahn, who is a major character in the book, very interesting guy, don mcgahn was Trumps Campaign attorney, used to be on the fec. He was appointedded by george w. Bush and put on there with Mitchell Mitchells help because don mcgahn, ive anyone him a long time and call him a radical libertarian. An antiburkeic antiburcratic person and when he got on the fec, he shut down the federal Election Commission and stopped them from doing some of the regulation to liberals here that sounds bad. To don mcgahn that was exactly what he wanted to do and exactly what Mitch Mcconnell wanted him to do. So he is trumps attorney in the campaign but he knows a lot about the nomination process, having been through itself himself, and he knows a lot about conservative juris prudence, and so he is talking to trump, but don also in a band, by the way, and a very good one, and he had a weekend gig. So hearings what happened between trump and don mcgahn. Don mcgahn Trumps Campaign lawyer was driving along route 50 to ocean city, maryland, his car packed with band gear for a weekend give was guitarrest with a group called scotts new band. Scotts new band, big beach bar cover band, really good he glanced at an incoming text from his wildfire, shannon. Scalia died, she wrote. Mcgahn pulled off theship a park can lot o a wawa gas station and convenience, shocked, shaken and saddened by the news and then like mcconnell turned to the political implications up mcgahn now miss candidate might be at a disadvantage against senators who had more experience with judicial politics and was worried but cruz, the on streppous texan who sender on the Judiciary Committee and checked for chief Justice William rhenquist, cruz was hanging on as a rival and potential conservative alternative to trump and would try to capitalize on the political implications of scalias death. Mcgahn called trump to warn him not to be the first politicize cal yas passing. What but putting out names . Recognizing that specific perspective nominees might go over well with the conservative audience he was courting. Mcgahn agreed that was good idea and quickly ran through possibilities. Brett kavanaugh is the first name that came to his mind, promoting promoting the judge recognize inside washington as a rising conservative star of the federal bench. He and trump kicked around a few others including the appeal court jumps William Prior jr. Of alabama, and diane sykes, two favorites hardline conservativeses. As they weighs the pros and cons the candidate and his lawyer concluded it wasnt the best time for trump to embrace kavanaugh, washington insider and a george w. Bush appointee to the court that produces chief Justice John G Roberts in disfavor for upholding the healthcare law. The moderator opened the debate with a moment of silence for scalia but the silence didnt last long he asked trump if with 11 months to go in the hypothetical his hypothetical president ial term, would bow to democratic demands me not put forward a nominee. Quote from john i would want to try to dominate a justice. Im sure that frankly im absolutely sure that president obama will try to do it if hope our senate is going to be able, mitch and the entire group, is going to be able to do something about it. And by doing something about it, trump meant doing nothing about it. So this was right from the getgo. Right from the get to go with brett kavanaugh. Ing and. Interesting. So, mcgahn when we was sworn in on the fec was sworn in in kavanaughs chamber by kavanaugh in 2006. And hes walk out with shannon, i his wife, who ive known for a long time. He said that guy is going to be on the Supreme Court some day but didnt know he would be the go to put him on the Supreme Court. So, this was the beginning of the famous list for trump. The idea of putting forward some names to reassure conservatives. Conservatives were really worried but trump. Been a democrat in new york, contributed to plant parentedhood, his sister was federal judge in the new jerseypennsylvania district had ruled on some abortion rights issues that were so cruz was running around, spreading the idea that trump was going to either appoint his sister, who is proabortion, or somebody like his sister and he was using this pretty well in south carolina. So trump and mcgahn are trying in figure out a way to stop this and one way to stop it was to start throwing out names of conservatives. Trump, because after his sister being there he kind of got the federal judiciary and get a little more than he got other parts of the government. Trust me. At that point. He didnt understand it perfectly. I have a quote from him talking about the bills his sister had signed as judge. So that didnt happen. But this was the book really makes the case that this vacancy and trumps ability to use the list and do some other things was crucial and probably instrumental into this election. Thats what i mean by making history. Think if this hadnt happened, i think theres very good chance that trump would not have been elected and ill talk more about that. And you would have a completely different situation on the Supreme Court. Obama would have gotten his pick, maybe hilary would have won. Were talking about complete opposite. Some other dimension somewhere this is happening. So now its on the Obama Administration. Heres this vacancy. Theyve got to figure out a way to get their guy in there, and the debate and the news cycle is affecting obama, too. He is out in Rancho Mirage playing government, holiday weekend. Everybody is gone from washington and so theyre getting the news out there and theyre astonished that mcconnell has come out so quickly and said, were not going to let you fill this vacancy. And they also, a little thing here that they had to scramble and get him some decent clothes because he is playing golf and the so theres a debate whether they should just issue a statement or he could shoo go on video because this is really quickly getting out of control, because Chuck Schumer called denis mcdonough, the chief of staff at the time in d. C. At his kids soccer game if ask everybody where they were when they got new news scalia died. It was interesting because everybody is scatter. Heels at his kids soccer game and his phone rings and Chuck Schumer says watch out the republicans will say you cant fill this vacancy. And dennis is like little what are you talking about . They were having a hard time accepting how radical the republicans would be in this one. So, important part of the book, theres meeting that wednesday after scalia dies at the white house, where they brought in some people who were with real experience in doing judicial nominations, including ron kline, who worked for gore, worked on a lot of nominations and also the guy who in tallahassee was in charge of the recount for al gore. Really experienced person. So, they have a meeting, and denis is like, lets go through all the motions. Were going to go through these interviews, interview the people. Weve done this twice before success live with kagan and sonia sotomayor. We have a big book that tells us how to do this and hell go by