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the pandemic and those extra restrictions which everybody is expecting to be put in place. how do you think businesses are feeling and how do you see the future unfolding? our view is that the recovery will come to a complete halt in the fourth quarter of this yet. the forecast we have at capital economics is that gdp will not increase at all in october, november or december. that is due to a combination of the factors that you mentioned, further restrictions, some concerns about the possibility of a no—deal brexit as well. so we have had the very vigorous recovery from the coronavirus recession for the first few months, but we think it is going to peter out to a standstill within the next few months. looking at morale and speaking to businesses all the time, how do you maintain that morale when things are looking so dismal for so many people at the moment?

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