presumption among us in the west that the arab spring means authoritarian regimes transitioning to something else. there's an enormous amount of economic pressure on brittle democratic regimes as well. particularly about the european periphery, greece, hungary. those are places we could seed a lot more social discontent, populism that moves them in an authoritarian direction. they shouldn't lose sight and presume arab spring is just about countries we don't like. >> that brings us to europe. easy question. will the euro survive in its current form with all its members in 2012? >> i think there's probably now about a slightly just about even chance that it will survive but very uncomfortably large possibility that it won't. i say "uncomfortable" because the precipice that that represents for europe is a very scary one. >> i would probably give it a little better odds than that, more in the 60% to 70% range. i think it's striking all the people have been predicting it