>> at best we get one in the fourth quarter. they'll disappoint the market in june and not do a rate cut. >> charles: all right. gary b., we've been talking about these things in the headlines, whether they're tariffs or china. it's going to be refreshing to get back too old school market that is sort of relying on earnings forecasts and things like that. if that is the case in the second half of the year, how does that change the dynamics of this? >> well, you know, i think you're right. how long has it been since we focused on earnings? since you and i were in great school it seems, charles. i think it's all going to depend on the china tariffs. i don't think the tariffs have that much an effected on our total gdp. there was an article in the "wall street journal" that individual companies are negotiating directly with china to get around the tariffs. that being said, i think you will see in the outlook that it