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buying equipment. if they get a trade deal people it, but will president obama begin to actively campaign for joe biden now and could that are going to be buying equipment turn the tide? , manufacturing is going to go up against we're going to have a boom. >> first of all i think it's a >> we will have a boom and horrendous mistake on the part that's one of the many things the president has in its pocket. of the democrats to beat up on if he can find a deal look at, president obama who remains for democrats the most popular even democrats before he was figure in the party bar none and elected were saying we need to deal with the chinese, on that's why we saw them beat up on him during the debate stage intellectual property, he could say if he successfully completes and the next day start to walk it back recognizing what they it that he has done what presidents weren't able to do had done. i do think president obama is beforehand. he also has other things in his going to hold back on any sort pockets. not that long ago he talked to of formal campaigning until nancy pelosi and chuck schumer people in the democratic primar about an infrastructure ies have a chance to vote. investment. something like that is a big i don't think he wants to get boom for the economy, so he quite out there upfront about this, and let's not forget. still has room to maneuver, timing is going to be key here. joe biden is not yet the nominee david: and gary b., he still has consumers on his side. we had retail sales this week he still has maybe 25 other that were terrific, so they are from the perspective of the man challengers so they haven't on the street, they are going quite made their decision. it's still very very early and out still buying stuff. >> i'm glad you brought that up people like elizabeth warren and , david because it really others are moving up quickly in comes down to which factor do the polls so he does have stiff you think is going to be bigger. competition out there. look, i think even if we reach he does not walk away. david: sticking with you for a an agreement on tariffs, china's second, elizabeth warren is giving bernie a run for his
>> at best we get one in the fourth quarter. they'll disappoint the market in june and not do a rate cut. >> charles: all right. gary b., we've been talking about these things in the headlines, whether they're tariffs or china. it's going to be refreshing to get back too old school market that is sort of relying on earnings forecasts and things like that. if that is the case in the second half of the year, how does that change the dynamics of this? >> well, you know, i think you're right. how long has it been since we focused on earnings? since you and i were in great school it seems, charles. i think it's all going to depend on the china tariffs. i don't think the tariffs have that much an effected on our total gdp. there was an article in the "wall street journal" that individual companies are negotiating directly with china to get around the tariffs. that being said, i think you will see in the outlook that it
strong. if we do get a dip, i'm going to continue to buy them. >> we had a dip in may. it was one of the worst in a long time and followed by the best june. the best june in 80 years. so the volatility might be back to gary's point, feels like investors are grappling with the reason for the market to go higher. >> yes, here's the one thing with the market, which is why i think people can be bullish for the rest of the year, is there's not that euphoric state at this particular time. you're not seeing that euphoric moment with investors. there's down side in the short term because of the fed. i don't think they'll reduce rates. the inversion of the yield curve may have people spooked. i believe buying the dip is the play for 2019. i believe we will finish higher than where we are right now. >> charles: no interest rate cuts for you, right, eddie? >> i'm sorry? >> charles: you're say nothing rate cuts the rest of the year?
buy. >> for people that are not as nimble as you and daniel, would it be worth holding since you expect the market to subsequently rally? we break out these levels that danielle described. get a true break-out. it can really take on a life of its own, couldn't it? >> really can. when you're in these late cycles, it's not abnormal to see these surges happen. investors out there, i would say, if your overweight on exties, it never hurts to take some off the table when you've had a fantastic start in anticipation of volatility. i think you may have some possible brighter entry points at some point in time after we get the next earnings reports. >> charles: we'll see. eddie, danielle, gary b., happy fourth. talk to you soon. >> happy fourth to you as well. >> charles: and from your money to the money rates of 2020, we have an update of who has the momentum right now. what it means for the campaign.
>> charles: stocks taking off in the first half of the year with president trump sounding more upbeat on the china trade talks. investors betting the fed will cut interest rates. will good times roll? let's ask our experts. gary b., i don't think anyone thinks we can match the first half of the year, but maybe we still continue to move higher. >> we could move slightly higher, i suppose. look, it's a dichotomy. we've risen almost 27% from the lows very late in 2018. are we going to tack on another 27%? that would be the greatest year ever. that would be in the head winds of economically we're a little bit flat. retail is flat at best.
greg palkot, terrific reporting. greg palkot in paris. again, gary b, can that happen here? >> i think what you're seeing, on the roots of it it's a protest to the gas tax, but i think it's more a protest of the people don't feel the government's doing a good job. you have a country that is 10% chronic 10% unemployment. what happens when you have a government that has so many input into the gdp, almost 50% of the france's gdp, you get people dependent on what the government does. if you want to preview what the u.s. could look like years from now as the government grows increasingly in size, look no further than what's happening in paris. >> dagen: again, i read that quote from the wall street journal editorial today, john, that the rich are not rich enough to fund a modern welfare state. france is the most heavily
he wouldn't be in the market right now. maybe when he's finally put on the stand and if he is, we have a clear sense of what direction the governments going to go then you start buying but you're absolutely right, dagen. i would say of the things we talked about the tariffs, the fed and the mueller investigation, i would say this is at least the latter is at least 40% of my concern. dagen: wow you've got the final word here, you all are back next hour. john gets the first question i promise him that, gary b., thank you so much john layfield, dan, from the shake up on wall street to the shake up in washington, what's ahead for trump's latest replacement picks? and the battle over the border wall front and center as president trump prepares to meet with nancy pelosi and chuck schumer, stay with us.
enough they could blow the balance sheet up again if they were really buying securities to push money into the system if the fed radicals was really worried about the economy. i don't disagree with what you're saying, however what i do think is happening here is the market is reacting emotionally, to your point john, they've moved away from fundamentals and they seem to have a very short attention span and they're chasing shiny objects, a dangerous place for the market to be. dagen: in terms of the fed removing money, gary b., from the system a lot of these securities, even well known stocks and bonds have become harder to trade and that's kind of an indication of money being pulled out of the financial system. i don't want to sound like the n erd that i am deep down but that's a concern but i want to ask you this i'm going to put you on the spot. how much of the market sell-off may be or the added worries is in relation to the mueller report? and the mueller report potentially coming out? i remember back before the ken starr report was released in
month, missing wall street's expectations of 200,000 and the unemployment rate held steady at 3.7% for a third month in a row and average hourly earnings the key number for investors worried about fed rate hikes came in as expected at 3.1%. one bright spot for investors this week the fed indicating they may take a wait and see approach when it comes to raising those interest rates next year. dagen? dagen: thank you so much, tracy. tracy carrasco, from the fox business network. you just saw investors are so worried about the standoff with china, and it's not getting any better. so should you be worried? let's ask fox news contributors gary b. smith and john layfield along with cpa and market analyst dan geltrude. gary b. to you first what's going on to drive the market down in the way that stocks fell this week? i was watching the dow transport a real clear indicator of maybe how healthy the economy is. they fell 8% this week, gary b., it was the biggest drop for a week in over seven years.
government, even when the government tries to make what they think are smart moves on behalf of everyone else, it gets in the way of private enterprise and now people are dependent way or another on what france does. >> dagen: we've got to go. gary b. see you soon. it's a feeling that's hard to describe... ♪ ...and even harder to forget. ♪ the united states virgin islands.