scenarios, we basically say there's a 50/50 chance of president obama getting re-elected, i think we're probably pretty close to that. but at the end of the day, presidential campaigns are dynamic. we're a year out. there's a lot we don't know now and nate silver doesn't know now. and if he does know, i want to know who will win the eagles/bears game on monday. >> nice diversion. do you think the president can win re-election in a stagnant economy, yes or no? >> absolutely. >> as bad as it is now? >> yes, absolutely. >> okay. john, feehery, can the president -- can your party blow it if the economy is this bad? >> chris, the reason why this is a brilliant analysis is also because it's blindingly obvious. if the economy is still stagnant, the president's going to lose. if the economy comes back, he's probably going to win. there's really not much more you can do about it. i think that silver's probably right. >> i'm with you on this one, although i don't know who's going to win. i think the probability's leaning your direction. the president could pull a rabbit out of his hat. he is the luckiest man in politics i've ever known. when you get to run against alan