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Obama 17%. fascinating. in his second scenario, the opponent is romney but the economy in america is improving. the probability of winning in these circumstances, romney, 40%, obama's probability of winning, 60%. in the third scenario, obama's opponent is rick perry, and the economy is improving. in this case, the probability of winning the popular vote is perry, 17%, obama, 83%. in the fourth scenario, fascinating, the most fascinating, the opponent is perry and the economy is stagnant. perry, probability of him winning, 59%, probability of the president getting re-elected, 41%. mike feldman,...

President obama getting re-elected, i think we're probably pretty close to that. but at the end of the day, presidential campaigns are dynamic. we're a year out. there's a lot we don't know now and nate silver doesn't know now. and if he does know, i want to know who will win the eagles/bears game on monday. >> nice diversion. do you think the president can win re-election in a stagnant economy, yes or no? >> absolutely. >> as bad as it is now? >> yes, absolutely. >> okay. john, feehery, can the president -- can your party blow it if the economy is this bad? >> chris, the reason why this is a ...

Scenarios, we basically say there's a 50/50 chance of president obama getting re-elected, i think we're probably pretty close to that. but at the end of the day, presidential campaigns are dynamic. we're a year out. there's a lot we don't know now and nate silver doesn't know now. and if he does know, i want to know who will win the eagles/bears game on monday. >> nice diversion. do you think the president can win re-election in a stagnant economy, yes or no? >> absolutely. >> as bad as it is now? >> yes, absolutely. >> okay. john, feehery, can the president -- can your party blow it if the ec...

Its interest rate a quarter of a point, sending the euro on a roller coaster ride. on stocks, a broad-based rally, four gaining for every one declining. we had solid earnings from qualcomm and kraft foods. and after the closing bell, robust results from starbucks as it expands into instant coffee and "k" cups. and directv posted its best quarter ever, adding more than 900 subscribers in north and south america. that's it from cnbc, first in business worldwide. now back to "hardball." welcome back to "hardball." out in arizona, the new census figures mean the state gets a new congressional di...

I cover redistricting around the country, chris, and i haven't seen anything like this, where a governor of any party has gone in and tried to take over an independent commissions process. that's where this is really new and unchartered territory in terms of redistricting. at least in this cycle. what isn't new is that politics is inserted into this process. redistricting is one of the most political processes out there. >> what would be a fair assessment? how many seats did arizona have? it had, what, eight? >> yes. and now it has nine. >> what would be a fair delineation, a division, if you ...