speech when obama was first a candidate. but a lot of spending by the democrats in the ads coming out, and you don't know what caused it, but the speech was very well received. >> bounces don't last, be but does it give some reason for optimism? >> well, in politics you want to be ahead rather than behind so that the obama people are better off now than going into the conventions, and they are pleased. about i'm sure that romney's people wish they were in that situation. >> and we have fascinating information about foreign affairs and we talk about politics is all local, but there are major events moving the numbers from the high of 9/11 to bin laden's death and we are not saying that what is going on right now in the middle east is the same as the invasion of the persian gulf, and having said that, could this move numbers? >> yes, we call it is a rally event. when there is a sharply focused event internationally, then