How Changing the Definition of Pandemic Altered Our World Mid-March 2020 predictions said COVID-19 would kill 2.2 million Americans if allowed to run its course. 1 By the end of March, Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, downgraded the projected death toll, saying we were probably looking at 100,000 to 240,000 Americans dying. 2 April 8, 2020, a new model referred to as the Murray Model 3 downgraded the threat further, predicting COVID-19 will kill 60,000 in the U.S. by August 2020 4 — a number that is still 20,000 lower than the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s death toll numbers attributed to the seasonal flu the winter of 2017/2018.