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recession. maybe because the economy is so strong and the fed will have to be really aggressive to try to cool it? >> i think that is a big part of it. i think there are some people who think that all the aggressive actions last year really haven't been fully felt in the economy yet, that we're still going to feel those at a lag and that will help to slow down the economy this year. i think there are people that the fed will have to go into super aggressive mode in order to get these things under control. and i think there is a third camp who think that consumers who look fantastic right now, confusingly look great in all the data, will eventually have to crack. you can only buy so many couches. you have to stop spending eventually. and that might happen with a vengeance. so i think those are the three scenarios that lead us to a recession. again, all very uncertain. >> yeah, that consumer piece, for months i've been waiting to see the signs of cracks. and you talk to the credit card companies and say no, people are still spending money.