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themselves to be independent. rs and ds are tied at 27. it tie as record for an independent showing making them the largest political bloc in the country. but then there is bret stevens who bluntly sums up the state of the race as follows -- barring a political miracle or act of god, it is overwhelming likely that donald trump will again be the republican party nominee for president. and speaking of acts of god, you can also throw into the mix unknowns like the dire iowa weather forecast for money's caucuses. this year shaping up to be the coldest ever with temperatures as low as 15 degrees below zero, worse with the windchill. this is likely to affect turnout where in some rural areas as few as ten people can make a big difference. but what does the historical data tell us? my next guest says it points to donald trump's nomination being pretty much a done deal.