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ground game and organization payoff? the assumption is always that trump has the most ardent supporters, but if they also assume that trump has it in the bag, will some decide to stay home? we have real insight on these questions, with real numbers from the gold standard in campaign polling. the person who always gets it right. so let's get right to her. joining us now is the pollster behind what's considered, again, the gold standard in polling in iowa, president and founder of -- company jay and seltzer. and it is good to have you. top line numbers, donald trump still leads by a historic margin. explain that, and explain the slippage that you are seeing? >> -- well his numbers surely are ones to be proud of. he's 48% of the first choice votes. but that's down from our december poll, which hadn't at 51%. and really, it's only a few percentage points, but they are symbolic down there. he was above 50%, and that is