Yevgeny Prigozhin, flamboyant Russian warlord and head of the Wagner Group, was killed in his private plane on August 23, along with Wagner’s second-in-command, Colonel Dmitry Utkin, the chief of combat operations. The puzzle of how Prigozhin met his end—reports suggest an air-defense missile, a bomb, or even a problem with his plane’s mechanics—is less important than the path Wagner and Russia will take in the aftermath of his death.