Sir Keir Starmer is on course for a humiliating defeat in Hartlepool's by-election as a new poll shows the Tories have a seven-point lead. Conservative candidate Jill Mortimer is set to win with 49 per cent of the vote at Labour stronghold Hartlepool in next month's by-election, a Survation poll has revealed. Meanwhile, Labour's Candidate Dr Paul Williams is set to take home just 42 per cent, a rise of only four points on the share won by Mike Hill in the 2019 general election. Mr Hill resigned last month in the wake of reports that he used taxpayers' money to fight a staff member's claim of unfair dismissal, sexual assault and harassment. He has denied the allegations.