LESSWRONG 51 Cross-posted from Putanumonit, I will likely keep the post more up-to-date there than on here as my estimates change. This was also intended for a non-LW audience, since smarter people than me have provided their estimates here and you shouldn't overweight me because I have my own blog. I am including some new info and analysis that wasn't in Zvi's post, so update accordingly. There is evidence of a new highly-infectious strain of COVID-19 emerging in the UK and other countries. This post is an elaboration of my current model of it, as promised in my this post by Zvi, the links from it, and comments. Read those if you haven’t yet.