Us. Gina martin adams from wells fargo. First, first world with Caroline Hyde. Caroline thank you very much indeed, david. Yes, lets look at the stage being set at the moment for the battle between apple and the u. S. Government. Apple is refusing a federal magistrate order to help the fbi unlock the iphone from one of the shooters in the San Bernardino terrorist attacks. Apple ceo tim cook says the company has given the fbi data that is in its possession, but cooks as building a back door cook sayse but 10 buildin him cook says building a back door to retrieve the information would not be good for security for customers. President obama says the senate needs to consider his nomination for the replacement of antonin sculley on the Supreme Court. The Obama Administration had reportedly planned a vast cyber attack against iran if the dispute had led to military conflict according to the New York Times. Disablingas aimed at the power grid and communications. Global news 24 hours a day, powered by our 2400 journalists and more than 150 news bureaus around the world. I am Caroline Hyde. Matt i will take it from there, caroline. Taking a look at futures, you can see u. S. Futures are showing gains across the board about 13 points on s p futures, dow jones up about 100, and they are climbing. If you take a look at my bloomberg, i have got a oneday picture of s p futures. You can see that we were actually down overnight and did not start trading up until just after 4 00 a. M. And then appreciated noticeably. Why is that . I am sure you all know it is oil. Take a look at oil here. Reports or a confirmation that talks would happen with iran right around 4 00. That is when oil started to pick up. If you switch back and forth between my bloomberg and this chart, you can see that the correlation is pretty striking today. It has been of course all year. Lets take a look at the dax index as well, the oneday chart of the dax, you can see strength building as well. We had Credit Agricole earnings out. They were better than the streams were looking for. Banks across europe rose up across the board. Stephanie you have got to remember this is on the heels of the disastrous week from Deutsche Bank. Credit suisse having a tough time. Think about the plight of these european banks. The tier one debt and all of the bondholders feeling panic. When you look at Credit Agricole, who is not even considered a major player, you see stock up 12 . There is such a massive exaggeration in overshoot across the board when we see any sort of headlines. Does that surprise you at all, gina . Gina in a way it does because of the shift in tone from where we have been. This year,r turned and everyone decided to go into panic mode. But given the fact that we have been dealing with it for six weeks it is not, right . After the last six weeks, you get accustomed to these overreactions on both the upside and the downside. Of groundare sort zero, forgive the statement, but ground zero for what is going on with the policy mechanism. It is something of an unknown. Matt that leads me into my next chart here. Take a look at gilt. Stephanie i love looking at gilt. Oneday cart. Chart. Fell. Recall, guk i want to look at the town here come over a fiveyear period, here is the british pound here intraday, but if you look at the fiveyear period, look at the lows. The pound is really weak versus the dollar. It is interesting to look at what is going on in the Interest Rate markets over there. If you get back to the bank, it is fascinating to me that you had the worst week, the last two weeks that we have had in years, and then on friday, at least for u. S. Banks, we had the best day that we have had in four years, so as stephanie says, the swings are really exaggerated, the volatility is in there across asset classes. Thehanie matt, think about investors that got absolutely smoked in 2008, early 2009. Had they held, they would have had glorious 2009s. You have got the same investors in the market to remember that pain, and they simply do not want to miss getting this trait right. Do not want to miss out on the downside as much as they do not want to miss the upside. That is the key. We are now conditioned to expect incredible declines as well is very sharp rallies as a result not only of 2008 but 2000. That is something very new. Investors do not often think about tyneside. About downside. Stephanie what so many investors are doing today, it takes us to our next story, can there morgan is up in premarket trading. After sec filing showed Warren BuffettsBerkshire Hathaway increased its stake in the pipeline company. This is just a snippet very big carl by john carlson, icahn, the list goes on. Lets bring in our own simone foxman. Lets back this up, simone. These 13 filings are telling us where some of the biggest investors out there what they did in the Fourth Quarter. Before everything fell out of bed, walk us through some of the most notable moves. Simone obviously, you have to start off with Warren Buffett. He bought a stake of about 400 million in Kinder Morgan. To ginas point earlier, certainly there are a lot of folks out there looking for energy to bottom and looking to ride the upside. Appaloosa, david tepper getting in on that trade as well. You also have David Einhorn and carl icahn both cutting their stakes in apple, so both of them that has been a big deal. Stephanie before we move on to apple, it is important to note that they bought these positions before the market fell out of bed. Everyone you have mentioned it they do not have to offer monthly or quarterly liquidity is, so they are ok. Simone right. You will never touch the exact bottom. None of these managers will say i will really get this right at the bottom. These are all longterm investors. But the prospect for energy recovering has been a really tough trade for people over the last year. If you said after the end of 2014, wow, Energy Companies are really going to struggle, the valuations to decline well, Kinder Morgan was down last year. You had a rough time. David oil prices were already pretty low. Lets move on to apple that you were going to. Lets talk about tech a little bit. I think there were quite a few Tech Companies that is the one place you saw the largest aggregate inflows for Hedge Fund Managers across the board. You are also talking amazon, facebook, and a lot of these companies have suffered in the market downturn, so certainly i think there were a lot of people hetting in on this traitde, t facebook, amazon, netflix, google stephanie it is interesting because not everyone is on the same page. You see chass omen going and ivd David Einhorn cutting. Doesnt Say Something to you when major investors start to pull out of these banks . Simone not necessarily, not after the incredible rallies we had last year. Gina energy was a clear market laggard, so naturally in decemberjanuary, you see a lot of transitions, shading transitions. The extent of the outperformance and underperformance of energy last year was the big surprise, and that might be a region why you he such a reason why you see such volatile trading. Stephanie people forget that fund existeds before. He was a milliondollar fund. Then when subprime came, clearly his name you would have thought he got gold wrong here. Matt are you calling him a onehit wonder . He did have one big hit. Stephanie a really big hit. Paulsonsan see john holding in the etf, the Worlds Largest etf, and another reduction here right before it takes off. Function. E hcs everyone is holding at a big holding, but it is probably better illustrated just by looking at a oneyear chart of gld. This is the end of the Fourth Quarter when we have his reported reduction in holdings, and here is the 37 rally that he missed out on. He is a very big billionaire. Stephanie he is raising 1. 5 billion for distressed funds, private equity stop your he is investing a ton of money in real estate in puerto rico. Gina a point about the gold etf this is used to sort of backup the hedge funds. Mywas essentially saying investors would rather be in gold than in dollars because were worried about this monetary easing. What it shows is either he got out of that share class or his investors did. This is what is backing up his trade, too. David that is a quick overview. We will come back to it later. Bloomberg news simone foxman, thanks for that. Brent crude advances today as iran and iraq meet to freeze production. Were joined by bloombergs javier blas in london. Venezuela may be meeting with iran right now as we speak or do talked about how important iran was to this deal. Javier it is very important. It is ongoing. It is almost 3 00, 3 30 in tehran. Qatar, iran, iraq, and venezuela are holding a second day of meeting after the meetings we had yesterday involving russia and saudi arabia. What they will try to do is convince iran and iraq that they need to probably iran will get some maneuver to continue increasing, keep output from coming back, but this is really what will make the deal that was announced yesterday work or not really work, and then we will see a fall off and pricing in the 20 range for rent and wti. David javier, what is in it for iran . Just as i get in, you are saying, sorry, do not come in anymore. Javier iran will be offered a special package where they can ramp up production to a certain point. The consolation tehran will have to do is do it to a certain limit and benefit from a price increase, or we continue where we increase one Million Barrels today and we see the price go to 20. That is a difficult consolation because it is not only the economic element of it, but it is also a political calculation where iran wants to have a real approach met with saudi arabia. Moment, diplomatic relations are completely broken between the two countries, and i think the politics here will be as important as the economics of the oil market. When you are looking at the broad picture, we are talking about a freeze in supply. Has that typically proceeded cuts in supply . Talk us through the dynamics and what opec is thinking. Is it a temporary freeze . What should we expect six months down the line . Javier when you think about where we are coming from in december 2015, the last opec meeting, opec abandoned any production limit. It was a freeforall. The country was on a really capitalists, the markets are supplied, we will not interfere with the market. Today, they are talking about freezing output. Whether that goes into a production cut, we do not know yet, but what we know is that previously they were refusing to engage with the idea of setting limits to production. Now they are accepting limits to production. The Saudi Oil Minister said this is the beginning of a project that could require farther cuts. That is code for farther cuts in the future. That does not result in over supplying the market immediately but opens the door for a resolution. Javier blas joining us from london. Thank you very much. Gina martin adams will stay with us. Caroline this is bloomberg. I am Caroline Hyde. Bloombergs access a deal to freeze will not Goldman Sachs says a deal to freeze will have little impact on the oil market. Last week, goldman says prices will eventually drop below 20 a barrel. For the first time in more than 60 years, there will be scheduled commercial flights between the u. S. And cuba. The two countries signed a deal that will allow as many as 110 daily flights. All current flights between the u. S. And cuba are chartered. It is to normalize relations. That is the Bloomberg Business flash. Stephanie thanks so much. Now we will move on to global. We stay in the u. K. Unemployment held at a decadelow 5. 1 , and employment is at a record high, but here is the problem the oneweek here in the u. S. Fell. Wage growth slowed to a want to bring in our own guy johnson. Why is it that way tge growth is not picking up . Guy it is a conundrum they are trying to grapple with right now. There is a number of reasons for it, but nobody can actually nailed this one down. It is a pretty big problem. We are not seeing a wage growth picking up. We are seeing employment continued to go down. Is there more to the labor market than we think there is . D the traditional theories not holdo . There are a number of different competing theories at the moment. But nobody can nail this one down right now. The phillips curve, which you would normally expect to be torating here, ie, you start see inflation picking up, that is not happening. Stephanie are we paying enough attention to the fact that wages are slowing . When you see the overall top number, people start to get very bullish. And you can already see the market should be picking up, but it is not. Look at the way the bank of england is forecasting this one at the moment. It continues to forecast a pickup and wage growth. It has not happened, so the models clearly are not working. What was interesting last time sec,d was the cap on the last time around, he switched that, so no change. The bank of england cannot figure this one outcome of the markets cannot figure this one out at the moment. There are a number of fac factors at play here. At the moment, everyone is confused, that goes to the fed as well. Both sides of the atlantic very similar. That guy, if this is imported and confusing, why is it that the london markets of not reacted to it . E,en i look at the fts it is basically as up as the rest of europe is. Guy first of all, it does not change the bank of englands outlook. The bank of england has made it clear it will be on hold for a long period of time. We are not going to see any change, and that will be the story for one, maybe even two years. We are pricing the height of the bank of england although way out until 2017. The other thing is we have the referendum. That will be a bigger factor for sterling right now than what is happening on the unemployment story. As a result, the attention is over there rather than on the data we are seeing at the moment. David ok, thanks, guys. That is guy johnson joining us from london here it when we come back, glencore stock rallies. We will see what else is trading this hour coming from bloomberg. David welcome back to bloomberg. Time to take a look at the top trending stories on bloomberg. We picked our own. Stephanie, i want you to go first. Stephanie glencore obviously has been in the news for the last 10 months. With Oil Prices Dropping in a massive way, we saw glencore, the premier Commodity Oil Trading house, really take a dive. Glencore getting refinanced. Over 8. 5 billion getting refinanced. Their37 banks refinancing debt, but this is a company who a few months ago some said these guys are going under, they do not know how to operate. Positive. To me, it is no surprise to see their stock up. Gina the reality is the credit markets are still functional. For a few weeks, we have been trading as though there was no credit available to anyone. European banks were going under. So this is great news because it is further evidence that the system is not imploding. We are capable of finding Companies Even in of funding Companies Even in the stress distressed situations. Stephanie i cannot imagine that to turnnk ceos wanting around. David it is part of a larger plan to restructure, recapitalize and get Balance Sheets straightened out. The story for me is china. This is geopolitical risks. They built those artificial sea. Ds in the south china now they are deploying service to air missiles, which is a pretty ominous sign. Stephanie an ominous sign without a doubt. Investors who were feeling uncertain about the situation in china david meantime, the u. S. Has deployed stealth fighters to of northea because korea, so geopolitical risk is coming to be concerned about. Gina quite friendly, geopolitical risk have been around for a while as a concern, most evidently displayed in the s p 500, which has been one of the bright spots, right . Early last year, defense spending increase in the u. S. , and that has been a bright spot for equity investors. Stephanie how sensitive are these stocks to the upcoming election . Gina i would say they are a good place to be regarding the upcoming election because of the geopolitical environment. Dangerous places our health care. David you will buy guns the matter what. Stephanie we will be safe here at bloomberg. Stay with us. David welcome back. We are joined by Gina Martin Adams and Brendan Greeley. We have a couple morning must reads and big charts. Stephanie how about oil, s p 500 index, i would like to give myself credit. I do consider myself a house optimist. David you love green. Are optimistic long enough, eventually, you are optimistic. David we will go to carolyn for first word. Carolyn the u. S. Is making a show of force around north korea and the wake of a Nuclear Attack and rocket launch. Jets flew through south korea yesterday. U. S. Officials say the flight demonstrated the result to maintain stability in the korean peninsula. David cameron is getting closer to a deal over the uks membership of the european union. He has won the support it and goes of micro of angela merkel. They say they will do Everything Possible to keep them in the eu to a keyeron goes summit tomorrow. President obamawill not be succeeding him in the white house, and he says the American People will not collect donald trump. Mr. Obama says being president is a serious job and it is not hosting a talk show. Powered byay news our news bureaus around the world. I am Caroline Hyde. David thank you. Tom keene could not be with us today, so we brought our own morn