Decision. And seth marion is here over worries about characterizing volatility. Jon lets get a check on the markets for you. Futures positive, dow futures up 41 points. Over in europe, after the gest weekly drop since euro weakness, switching of the board, eurodollar was on a fiveday losing streak. 1. 1389. In there at and then nymex crude, up two full percentage points. It is seen as a tussle between the news over the weekend, the new oil minister in saudi arabia, and what is happening in canada with the wildfires spreading over there. I want to go live to the city of london and get the latest with bloombergs will kennedy. Lets talk about the immediate the spread of the wildfire, the reality that one Million Pounds of oil a day, production, has come off. How shortterm is this . That is a very good question. At the moment, it is a Million Barrels. Even if the fires calm down, which it looks like they are doing, it will be at least a week before they get back online. Many thousands of workers have been forced to flee, and it is a question about how quickly they can get back. Maybe overly optimistic. We always knew at some point that he would have to step down. I want to gauge with the Market Reaction would be off the back of this. But muddying the waters a little bit, what do we see out of saudi arabia . More of the same . The new guy has been at saudi aramco for years. He knows the Saudi Oil Industry inside out. I would not expect radical changes in the short term. However, he is very much aligned with the new policy of saudi arabia. Mohammed binose to salman, who is driving policy. Theres a reason to think that saudi arabia will change its policy. I think they are hawkish. They are willing to let oil prices level, and that may be bearish. The final question, as we spin forward into the june opec meeting, through the chances of an output freeze diminished somewhat . Will i think that was off the table as soon as i do not think there is the time needed Building Blocks in place. Kennedy, thank you very much. Amanda . Amanda disappointing trade data sent shares in china sliding. Lets go live to hong kong to get the very latest from enda curran. Enda good morning indeed. There was some tepid trade out of china this weekend, and there was not much in it for the bullish outlook. Chinese economy stabilizing, but it is not really turning the corner. Perhaps there is some weakness in demand as well which can be a concern. But on the import side of thing, we saw the old issue of trade invoices flare up again. We saw imports from hong kong rise almost 204 . Economists that they are using fake trade invoices to get out of china and india hong kong because they are fade that they are afraid the yuan will weekend. I think people are disappointed and concerned on the import side. Amanda we also have this theaordinary morning from peoples daily from an authoritative person, a spokesman for the government, about that levels in china. What do you make of that . Enda this is quite a powerful message today. When you see this person turn up in the front page of the peoples daily, we pay attention. The warning today is that chinas economy cannot continue to depend on this drip of cheap credit and debt to keep things going. They will have to push through painful reforms that are needed to put the economy on a more broad footing. The markets are reacting by interpreting this interview today of saying perhaps the easy credit and the megastimulus will be eased off in the coming months, and the authorities will focus on the hard things like, the coal factories. Some of the hard reforms are on the way, and that is why people reacted the way they did. Thanks so much, amanda. Dont become upset, not yet, at least. That is even after the somewhat is appointing numbers we got on friday about jobs. That is what two or three influential economic advisers are advising us. Did we asked too quickly . Michael there is a fascinating faceoff between the fed and the bond market. The bond market has been saying there is little chance of a fed rate increase even though fed officials are saying do not count us out yet. We spoke to a couple of old veterans of the bond market who told us remember the old maxim, dont fight the fed. I am not sure that june is out. We have heard from bullard, from stanley fischer, from williams in San Francisco, and they all seem to get it. They all seem to know that at some point they should be raising Interest Rates in order to preserve some semblance of profitability for savers and Insurance Companies and the like. Hikes, seeing one to two one certainly, maybe two. The fed has learned it has a window. Financial markets, relatively calm. The dollar has depreciated. Remember, when the fed looks at whether to hike a market, it looks at the famous equation that bernanke set out in 2010, about benefits, costs, and risks. Michael that is the same message that new york fed president bill dudley has given in an interview in the New York Times this morning. Will tell youan the same thing bill dudley does. If we continue along the same path, do not write off june. Is the fed trying to keep their options open, or do they really think they may hike in june . Michael they want to raise rates. They feel the mandate on employment, and now they are starting to see some inflation out there. 160,000ages rise, and jobs is enough to keep the Unemployment Rate still going down. If this continues, we will see more fed speak suggesting they are getting ready to move because they would like to get this out of the way. They would want to raise rates. The only thing that would keep them sideline, even if the numbers are good, is the possibility of a brexit mode in june. David we will have an interesting six or seven weeks ahead of us. That is mike mckee. Surveillance radio host. Will or willthey not, i think the market has answered that question pretty loudly. Matt check out the world interestrate probability count interestrate probability calculator we have here. The probability of a rate hike. N june is only at about 8 here in red, you can see the probability of a cut. Here in blue is the prediction that we will stay the same, 89 . And in white you see the probability of a rate cut really has come down, especially after the jobs number. If you pull down on this yellow are come you can check the possibility of other meetings. The december meeting, that is when the market things there is the possibility of another rate cut. If you look at the Morgan Stanley index, and they have a custom index for this. You can check this out on your bloomberg. This is thethat average hourly earnings, and a lot of people are saying janet yellen is more concerned with what people are getting paid and the inflation there then she is with the headline number. That rose to 2. 5 . It has been strong and continues to stay fairly strong here. The Morgan Stanley index comes down now to only one month until the next rate hike. So that is weathering nexis calculating. Amanda time now for your first word news. Here is vonnie quinn. Vonnie it is british Prime MinisterDavid Camerons latest attempt to sway voters not to leave the european union. In a speech, he warned that it would affect the british economy of the countrys edition. David cameron i understand why many people are wrestling with the decision and why some peoples heads and hearts are torn. And i understand and respect the views of those who think we should leave. Even if i believe they are wrong and that leaving would inflict real damage on our country, its economy, and its power in the world. Vonnie the british referendum on the e. U. Is june 23. Firefighters battling the wildfire in western canada may get a break. A cold front moving through the and may bring rain, forecasts show the fire moving east away from the oil sands operation of canadas Biggest Energy company. It also lead to 80,000 people fleeing the city of Fort Mcmurray. Russia marks the 71st murder theversary russia marks 71st anniversary of the defeat of not to germany. Germany. I global news 24 hours a day, powered by our 2400 journalists in more than 150 news bureaus i am vonnieorld, quinn. Jon breaking news on lending club. The ceo has resigned after an internal review. Review sales of 22 million of loans to a single investor, violation of actresses, unacceptable, and some are not aware that the ceo has resigned after an internal review. You see the stock getting hammered, down 11 . David and it was already down substantially and they had a lot more competition in this space. They do not need these they do not need this news right now. saudi arabias new oil minister is expected to stay the course on keeping rates high. Jon good day to you all from new york city as we kick off a new trading week. We are talking about the weekends news out of saudi arabia. This is bloomberg. New oilabia putting a minister. The move is part of mohammed bin wider rebound. Jason shanker joins us live from austin, texas. You have followed the oil markets for years. The chief guide used to be to listen to saudi arabia. That really meant listen to z alnaimi. There were stories that he was going to retire, that this might be his swan song. T is not to Bank Surprising that at 80 years old there is now a replacement for him. Alfalih is a solid choice. Amanda is the expectation that he will keep on on the same track, keeping promotion levels keeping production levels where they are . I think some of the stories naimihe weekend were that has been sacked and that would be a change in policy. That ish is that remaining the same. Lso expect prince abdullah one of the sons of the king i expect him to also still be there. There is going to be a lot of continuity in terms of how the delegation is composed. So anyone who views this change of guard as price bullish can find themselves burned ahead of the next opec meeting. David i wonder about the leadership. I wonder whether and i would like your view on this is this really a message from the deputy crown prince that he is in charge, he is putting his people in place . I do not necessarily know about that. There have been a lot of different changes of minister. There was an unusual circumstance where it was quite tense between iran and saudi arabia and the iranian minister was replaced and they sent in the minister ofs the minister of sports in order to be a temporary placeholder for the ministry of oil. That was quite precarious and sending a bit of that was quite precarious and it was sending a bit of a message for it i do not think that is what this is here. I think this is more continuity, and you can expect that the saudi stance is not going to yield or change in less there is a concerted agreement among all of the opec members at the meeting on june 2. Jon david i want to bring in matt miller. Matt my question is, will the new minister change policy . The oildecide that price action is more important than market share action . We know the saudis get 70 or 80 of their oil of the revenue from oil. This shows how other stocks move in relation to oil. This is a correlation chart that shows you that all of the other stocks, the other businesses in saudi arabia, are correlated 80 to the price of oil. There could be impress for them to move the price because it decides basically everything in saudi arabia. Jon i think you get ash david you cannot see the chart, jason, but you get the point. Fed, thest fall, the fdic, and the occ issued a warning on november 5 that was largely ignored by everyone which warned about the leverage and the oil and gas debt of the United States. It reached almost 400 in a year, largely ignored by the market, and at that point we warned our clients that cash was going to be king, or access to credit will be king in the oil batch. Arabia,s like saudi where you have saudi aramco and other select ones, will fare much better than iocs simply because they have more cash or the ability to raise debt on a sovereign level. The ability to for saudi arabia to go out and raise debt on the markets or to do an ipo partially as saudi arabia is going to be something that could keep the going way longer than a smaller or mediumsized independent, which will be at risk of default, bankruptcy, and the like in the next couple of quarters because oil prices are low. The saudis are leveraging their position of strength, access to capital and credit. Jon a quick question to talk about the opec meeting the alnaimi with opec was that he could strip out the political noise in the region. Has it become more political . If the deputy crown prince can put a new oil minister in place without jason i think there is always politics with these meetings. You have 13 different sovereign nations always being represented, other members of other nations, i would say at the last meeting it was particularly tense. There have been a number of intense meetings. That set a political statement. I will be curious to see what their attire is during the in june in vienna. It is the first time i have seen that and i have been going to these meetings for over a decade. I think that is important, and i think this will remain very much a political situation to be worked out. Jon economics president jason shanker. Amanda the worlds Jon Bloomberg this is. This is bloomberg. Im Jonathan Ferro. Positive six points on the s p 500. Over in europe, a decent session in mainland europe. 200, 9. 4 almost higher. Switch up the board. Eurodollar, a fiveday retreat. Down. 2 of 1 . Dollaryen, what a retracement. Almost one for percentage point. The crude market, it is that tussle between the wildfire in canada and the shutdown in production. And the longterm implications of a new oil minister in saudi arabia. The market is trying to work it out. I have to say, elsewhere in the commodity market, copper and other metals are matt getting hammered at the moment. A doubledose dose of that news this morning. As iron ore slumps severely, with thetry to china trade data, it jobs another 10 today as it slows in stockpiles hit a one year high. They have too much of it, the prices coming down, and they have also bidded up. Deutsche bank is looking at 50 outperformance to the European Market this year and says the stocks are due for a pullback. Deutsche bank says metals are vulnerable to move to the dollar. So bhp, rio tinto, Anglo American all down and dragging on the ftse. Lets take a look at what the leading markets are up overseas. There are gainers pulling stocks. European drug stocks, big stocks , really boosting the index there. You can see that roche is up 2. 5 . Novartis is up 2 . , up almost 3 . A lot is going on in europe, but it is to the upside. Amanda it is time now for bloomberg friends, a look at the top stories the readers are looking at on the bloomberg. I love this company because i get a read on the Global Economy, not just on demand but on supply. One of the things that has plagued this company is overcapacity. I have sat down with the ceo several times, and it is his comments on negative Interest Rates, the idea that negative Interest Rates are deflationary because it carries on promoting capacity. The companies that should have shut down, that should have gone on with others for consolidation are not because of negative Interest Rates. I think that is an important discussion. David the misallocation of capital we have been talking about. Amanda he started complaining. He was a cap he was an opportunist. David the question were coming back to throughout the show is the fed on course to raise Interest Rates in june . It is the most read story on the bloomberg this morning. Looking at a Beautiful Day in london today and markets are doing beautiful there. Im amanda lang in new york with david westin and Jonathan Ferro. Heres what you need to know this hour. Areks in europe rallying as crude rises above 45 a barrel. Have knockedfires production of the mix well saudi arabia has moved oil ministers. Disappointing trade data in the peoples daily is warning about the countries rising debt in a frontpage article there. International Monetary Fund officials will meet today to decide whether greeces government has done enough belttightening to gain another aid disbursement. Time to see what is making headlines outside of the business world. Lets check in with vonnie quinn. Vonnie greece has taken another step to unlocking the next round of bailout money could th. The Greek Parliament has approved payments for the tax system. Leaders will decide if that is enough belttightening to give greece more aid. If north korea wants to improve relations, they will have to give up Nuclear Weapons. The south was responded to comments from kim jongun. He says he will use Nuclear Weapons of his country comes under attack. Wall street is giving a financial bridge to democratic president ial frontrunner Hillary Clinton. Received 53 nton of donations from Financial Services executives. That is up from 33 in january. Many donors shifted their support from republican candidates who dropped out. Dayal news 24 hours a powered by journalists in more than 150 news bureaus around the world, i am vonnie quinn. Jonathan call it federal confusion. We get a soft data point and a miss on payroll on friday. 200,000 and bank of america and Goldman Sachs throw in the towel on the june rate hike. Muddying the waters is bill gross of janus capital. Take a listen to what he had to say. I think they should raise rates in order to give savers tha a break at the bank and the money markets. At the same time, the fed probably has to support the arket that is the long bond market. This has to be a slow and delicate process if they are going to raise rates and there cannot be a lot of volatility. I think qe has to come back at some point only to provide funds for fiscal spending. Jonathan joining us to weigh in on this is