Transcripts For BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Surveillance 20150114 :

BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Surveillance January 14, 2015

Holding a sign that says je suis charlie and the words all is forgiven about it. Wrong material on the bloomberg commodity index, the index now at its lowest level since 2002. Meanwhile, the world bank has cut its forecast for Global Economic growth once again this time, saying they see 3. 4 growth for 2015. World Bank Economists say the Global Economy is being pulled up by the u. S. , but that is not enough. Oil is extending its losing streak. Prices fell for a fourth straight day, down almost 2 . West texas intermediate trading for a little more than 45 a barrel. Wti briefly traded higher than brent crude yesterday for the first time in a year and a half. Uae and kuwait both predict this will last until the second half of this year. Government reports it is likely to show that u. S. Oil stock prices rose last week. House republicans are taking aim at president obamas immigration policy today. Lawmakers will vote on an amendment to bill funding Homeland Security. House Speaker John Boehner says the vote really is not about immigration itself. We are voting to block the president s overreach. His executive overreach, which i believe is beyond his constitutional duty and frankly violates the constitution itself. The senate is likely to reject that approach. It would force congress to pass a Homeland Security bill without any immigration measure. Pizza hut is raising the stakes in a fight for your dining dollars. It is adding who wrote this . It is adding glutenfree pizza to the menu i know, the words do not make sense. You will be able to order cheese only and Pepperoni Pizza with glutenfree crust. It is estimated that 2 gazil lion americans have celiac disease, disorder that makes it possible to make everybody at home happy because one person needs this damn diet, and the other person needs the other damn diet amen to that. Is anybody at your house glutenfree . No. We try to eat less bread, but that is a weight loss thing. The glutenfree i really think this is about weight loss, any deal is if you are really interested in avoiding things that cause weight dont eat pizza right. 2 of the population is actually celiac and has this legitimate and balance. Americans are interested in being glutenfree because it is the latest bad indicting. When you go the latest fad in dieting. When you go out oh, yeah, restaurants all around our rolling out glutenfree mnenus. I went to a place in michigan, and they had burgers and there were three dollars more. This stuff is complicated, it is full of science, so we will blab on to anything we think will make us healthier, but it is probably right some of the suspicion but everybody is not chronically overweight every deadly something happened with copper. We are cutting into time with jon ferro and glutenfree beer in london. Equities, bonds, currencies, commodities. Futures have improved from where they were two hours ago. It is now ugly now negative 6 days away from the ecb momentous decision. Oil cannot get a bit, yes, it is not a 44 dollar handle, but 45. 56 on american oil gets your attention. The vicks above average, 24. 56, euro yen shows weaker euro, stronger stronger yen and the ruble back above six he six dollars with important russian headlines about three hours ago about 66 with important russian headlines about three hours ago. This is inflation adjusted copper back to when no one was glutenfree. China boom again the headline when we go to prechina, we go back to 1989. We are looking at demand as well. Everything has been driven by the price of oil. That is a supply issue. When we pick out what is happening in the underlying commodities in the commodity index, i would say right about here is where Family Friends in argentina had problems maintaining the phone line because the copper kept being stolen. Richard sharma joining us and Jeffrey Currie of Goldman Sachs to make you smarter on commodities in your wallet as well. He headline this morning is the same but different than the past few days. A flight to quality today is tangible. Crist for whalen joins us this morning as we look at the big banks, Jpmorgan Christopher whalen joins us this morning as we look at the big banks, jpmorgan, interesting markets. Right now, Jonathan Ferro is in london. Are you glutenfree in london this morning . Tom, i am italian, what do you think . [laughter] very good. I think these are different markets than the last few days. Why is today different than tuesday or monday or last wednesday . It is still a commodity led a selloff, but it is being led by copper and not oil. What you see in copper in the mornings is it falls out of bed, and a narrative does not fit with copper. This is a story that developed off the back of the World Bank Report that slashed global bank forecast. Chinas, global demand, u. K. Time falling out of bed. When you and is although series of headlines about 3 00 a. M. From russia, from their finance minister, from the head of her bank do those russian headlines affect the market . I am not so sure about that, tom. I do not think so. This was a big one led by copper, and following the thing we have seen develop over the last month, a flashing light in the commodity market, similar in the bond market as well. That was very much a continuation of the theme we have seen allthe whole of last year. Record low yields in japan treasury yields struck into a may 2013 low. Pretty much said the bond bears are capitulating, tom. Jon, i want to talk politics in europe. This is an interview with mario draghi and a european newspaper that dropped 4 00 our time this morning, the European Central big was founded in the tradition of the bundesbank, this is what he is saying to the newspaper, but there is a huge difference between because the European Central bank is not for one country but for 19 countries. That is, so to say, the message that a few in germany need to understand. If this mario draghi dropping the mic . Is that what happened . It is mario draghi ready for a fight. You saw him almost sort of given a green light to the unlimited bond price plan. He has got another fight on january 22, and his Council Members that stood around him, he is saying the germans into understanding ecb as a paneuropean mandate full stop i understand there will be germans reminding him that yes, there are 19 countries, but germany makes up about 1 3 of euro zone gdp. Jon this sound like a much more punchy mario draghi than we have heard before. The ecb does monitor policy for 19 countries not one, and the publication was printed in, it does feel like he is laying the groundwork. Is there anything in there that is going to tie his hands to open up the spigot next thursday . It does not seem so. He gives his opinion, so it is not over yet, but he has pretty much rubberstamped the program. I say go back to the press conference in december, the ecb. Mario draghi used the word illegal, he said it would be illegal if the ecb did not follow their mandate, inflation below 2 , we had the story, they are nowhere near it. Jon ferro, thank you so much from london. Greatly appreciate your attendance as we look at the markets. Chris whalen joins us. It is a new volatility. Is it a good volatility or a harmful volatility . Where you sit looking at the banks and finance, which way does it cut . 9 it will be what we will have to live with. About a week ago, the chinese announced another big Infrastructure Program because obviously this notion that they were going to rebalance and shift to a consumer focus, it is not happening at all. I did a piece for natural interest on this you did a piece for natural interest but not for us . Well, nobody has ever asked. [laughter] thank you. What have we got . All of the stuff about mario draghi, i think it is form over substance. Even if he acts i do not think anything will happen. What the central bankers have reuven is that they are done. The whole notion of zero rates, 2 inflation, how do we even talk about this . The history of our finance if we have a great distortion renault which we all agree we do do we have any optimism of a stable path for bill dudley mario draghi, those guys over in japan, do you have any optimism of stability to come out of this . I think they are ignoring lombard street. We have kept rates too low for too long, and what yellen has done innocently i think is create a liquidity trap was up everybody is waiting for rates to rise they are not investing or spending, so income gdp is slowly contracting. I love what you say there, the part of the liquidity trap the real economy come everyone refocuses on banks, banks, banks, but jamie dimon and Brian Moynihan have to focus on a real economy that is not there. You focus on our piece the other day, the chart with the bank reserve, fast as part of the Bank Balance Sheet is the reserves at the fed. If they could make a loan with a 6 or 7 coupon, they would. Brendan greeley, very good on nailing that piece we saw on reserves. After we get done with chris whalen, we will meet adam posen of the Peterson Institute. Jeff currie of Goldman Sachs on that bombshell oil note, adam posen will join is in the 7 00 hour. Stay tuned for chris whalen on jpmorgan. From new york city this morning, this is bloomberg surveillance. Good morning, everyone. Bloomberg surveillance. I am tom keene. Olivia sterns and written in greeley. Futures improves 6. They were worse an hour and a half ago. Bloombergs Francine Lacqua spoke with pershings bill ackman, taking his victory lap it seems over to europe. He talked about anything from tesla to market volatility. Francine, what is your top takeaway . Olivia, we talked about the environment after the great 2014 he had. In 2015, will he be able to replicate these trend we saw . He says it is difficult to predict, the environment is right to do some great deals. We asked about volatility for stop some investors a it is difficult to sift through volatility. He said that is actually a bonus. I do think it is a favorable environment for what we do. Despite the volatility . Volatility is a good thing. If you are a longterm investor and you do not have margin leverage, then volatility is a positive. So we talked about 2015, and he has a very nice problem. He says my main problem is i have 4 billion to 6 billion to spend, five to find the right company to put my money there. Francine, when hes become it is often a market moving phenomenon. I heard you talk to you about tesco, a british retailer. This is the Third Largest retailer in the world even Warren Buffett has a stake. What did he have to say on tesco . This was surprising. He came on and said that Pershing Square does not get enough attention here in europe because investors do not know what it is. He came to do a bit of a pr exercise because he thinks his stock is undervalued. I asked him, olivia, why not come after a big company here in europe because if you are bill ackman, you are probably one of the bestknown activists in the u. S. , a little less known here in europe. If you have a big deal, the networks will stop he said he did look at tesco in the last six month, but retail has not been his strong point. He says he has been burned before. He says it was something that he was not that keen on, but the share price moved on it, so maybe investors think he might come back to it. There is a touch of futility here, and that is always good to see with bill ackman. You see has bang up year, and you compare and contrast that with mr. Paulson, who i believe was down some 30 or so. What did bill ackman say about the battles yeartoyear of making and not losing money . He was actually quite humble. Of coarse was keeping the cards close to his chest for 2015, but he said this is a great environment to be in just because of the international landscape. The funding that he is seeing is actually quite easy because of what Central Banks have been doing, sans terms of the economy, he is very bullish on the u. S. Economy, tom, and he is bullish on his model of funding. All right, francine, we will leave it there. Francine lacqua joining us there with her conversation with bill ackman. We want to hear your thoughts come out twitter question of the day is market volatility good for the big banks . Obviously there is a good lot of trading. We want to hear your thoughts. Tweet us that is todays company news. Tweet us bsurveillance. This is bloomberg surveillance. My answer is used to be. Possibly the Research Report of the year. It is a young year so far. Without question our most important interview of the day Jeffrey Currie he is with Goldman Sachs, his team changed the early the oil markets earlier this week. Dr. Currie will join us. Looking forward to that on oil and for that matter on copper. Good morning from new york city. This is bloomberg surveillance. I am tom keene. With me Olivia Sterns and Brendan Greeley. What do you have . Might come from jamie barlett, writing in the Financial Times this morning, writing i just think as it is really interesting. It gets to everything going on gets to how a hasthtag on twitter was shared 80,000 times. If you are dick costolo you have a lot of problems on twitter. What are you doing cooperating with the u. S. Government how are you surveilling things, how do you get jihadis off of western social media . I actually asked of them this. They came in for an editorial meeting five years ago, and i asked to them that question for some i said what do you do when what you do becomes a way of releasing press releases for really bad people, and they said well, we are really there for our whole community. If this was world war ii, you would shut down twitter in germany. We need to draw a distinction between propaganda and cyberattacks. Cyberattacks are very difficult to carry out. You need a lot of understanding knowledge propaganda is more dangerous. We kill the jihadis with drones, but they live on. This is and more all a lucky this is Anwar Alawlaki that you are talking about. It should be a goal of the western governments to shut them down online. You can get rid of the stuff online if you want to. That is true chris. I really think it is hard to we are very good come of the u. S. Government is very good at countering real attacks. We are very bad at the dealing with propaganda precisely because the exact same mechanisms that you would use to shut this down for the exact same measures if you have an ip address you can shut them down. Breaking news this morning, libya, the breaking news is that yemen al qaeda is saying they have something to do with terrorist right, they are claiming the other breaking news is we have photos, the sadness of burying people. Does anybody have a handle on what the next step is . What is the next it to do . I thought was interesting when al qaeda in yemen claims response ability because there has been a while and the connections that the New York Times traced fell very loose and that felt to me like al qaeda in yemen going ok yeah that was us. This is very difficult with people becoming in spite of their own, working on their own, looking to the propaganda of people like Anwar Alawlaki this is not even what we had five or six years ago but look, this is on the arabian peninsula. If the saudis want to do it, they could. They are funding these people. The strand of islam that is the saudi kingdom all right. I am so glad you brought this up. This idea of propaganda versus the alternatives. I mean, propaganda is propaganda, so what, but the other outcomes are really ugly. Countries have ways of shutting down propaganda. China is really focused on shutting down messages that it does not like and it is really bad at doing it for longer than five minutes. You are advocating the United States become more like china no i am saying china has done it and really worked hard at it and has not done a particularly well. I think this stuff is hard to do. At the same time, opposition Democratic Forces come i thinking of russia also using the western social networks to advance the ideals of the United States, it is sort of a doubleedged sword. Headlines out of ukraine which just percolate here. We have not talked in the last couple of days about ukraine turning, and this is the ruble weekends and the headlines the ruble weakens and the headlines of the finance manager. Almost like they are setting themselves up for an s p rates cut. I am not protecting that but they are managing the story right now. Interesting stuff. Coming up, tom keenes thoughts on Keira Knightleys dress of the golden. And we get a preview with chris whalen. Flight to quality. The yen and a full big figure, a 1. 16 handle. There is fear out there expressed with a stronger against a good morning everyone. Bloomberg surveillance. About 1 3 of to publics mexican restaurants have stopped serving pork. They are running low on port after they suspended suppliers for violating chipotle standards. The issues are connected to have the pigs are treated. To pulley requires a suppliers to raise the animals inhumane conditions with access to outdoors rather than in pens. They are still serving glut4nen. And a smart phone in india that runs its own software and not the search giants android operating system. The samsung has a 3g capability in a liquid crystal display. Samsung is the Worlds Largest maker of smartphones. And a russian billionaire is ready to cash in as his 80 state of the Brooklyn Nets heads to market. The nets franchise is called another picasso that could bring in a price above and beyond the record of 2 billion the former microsoft c

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