Bowe s boxilai. Andrew. Thank you, becky. We have a little bit of Corporate News this morning. Citigroup has suffered a significant decline in trading revenue. It threatens to decline the earnings. Theres a market wide earnings. Shares of blackberry today, the Company Warning on friday that it expects to report a huge quarterly operating loss. It plans to cut more than 1 3 of its global work force. Thats big, big news in blackberry land. Microsoft expected to announce a new surface tablet computer today, including a version with a smaller screen to compete with googles nexus 7. An event is scheduled in new york. Microsoft began selling surface tablets last year but sales have been slow. The changes to the dow are official. Visa, Goldman Sachs and nike are jumping into the blue chip index. Alcoa and hewlettpackard and bank of america, goodbye, youre exiting. Goodbye. If you went to sleep early last night, there are a few highlights from the emmys that you missed. Hbo dominated with the most trophies. 27 in total. Abcs modern family won best comedy. Amc grabbed the best drama prize for breaking bad. Speaking of walter whites saga, guess who got a shoutout in last nights episode . Youre aware that there are people who suggested the motives. Andrew l. Sorkin of the New York Times wrote a column suggesting that the grant was a kind of publicity maneuver to shore up the stock price on technologies because of your association with walter white. Well, thats not exactly so to speak of having a methamphetamine kingpin as cofounder of your company. Did you hear it . Did you hear it, a. Drew l. Sorkin. It mentioned your column. If you didnt understand if you are watching, do you feel like its been spoiled . I hope not. I dont think it was spoiled there. He got his hair back. Number two, hes a methamphetamine kingpin so apparently he gets caught. Stop. Stop. Stop. They said it. Hes not a kingpin where i am in the third episode. In the third season. If youre in the third season youre behind. Thank you for that. But they did show him at the beginning of the season with the hair. Very cool, andrew. Thank you. Yeah. The beginning of the kurcurrent season. Im in the third season, fifth or sixth episode. Trust me, to get from where you are and to there theres so much good stuff you have to keep watching. I will. I will. Didnt ruin it that much. This is the same screen writer for too big to fail. Peter gould who is one of the executive producers of the show also wrote too big to fail. There was cameo galore. There was charlie rose just then. There was mario batali who played the bartender. I havent seen the episode. Mixy drexler was in one episode two or three episodes. Is he doing the sequel to too big to fail . We havent gotten there. Were working on that last week with the no tapering. Right. Were trying to set up the failure first which we saw how well the market responded. And, you know, did you see theres a piece that intel, cisco, one other stock is now irrelevant in the dow. Ge because its a 23 or 24 stock. Its 1 now. That was the article. Are you kidding . Intel, cisco, ge. Theyre irrelevant because their Price Movement is so small compared to the big movements. Wow. Then we had that nice day on friday. See, i think the fed would say were not trying to pump up the stock market because that just is wealth, disparate. They dont want to do that. Were trying to work on the underlying economy Mortgage Rates. I can see how they would say that. If you think about it who are you . We have to welcome you. At the beginning you said miles nadal. You did . I had mine off. What about beltway ben. No, we did not introduce ben. There i am on the screen. Nobody has any idea who i am. I would be happy to talk breaking bad the whole time new would like. I thought you were injured. I could do that. Im not happy with the newsroom. Did you see the white house ask everybody to start supporting janet yellen . No. I did see that. Yes, sir, here we go. Shes tough. Shes shes very competent, comes prepared. Shes theres actually some criticism in there, too. Yeah. Read the whole thing. It comes across and says shes imperius, too harsh. Not a consensus piece. Its a positive. That was to suggest that shes tough and that shes like bernanke, shell go her own way if she needs to. I suppose. There was also a hint in there that she might be even more difficult to deal with than Larry Summers would have been in terms of consensus building thats not what the street believes but i know its not, but its in that story. I was going to say though, that the fact that the fed is behaving the way it is and its only expected to be about 10 billion of tapering to begin with, its only 12 , it means that the stock market appreciation is not being driven by the feds policies going forward, that it is going to be selfsufficient for the most part, the market, and it will be driven by Earnings Growth and liquidity. Well, lets get to global markets. Ross westgate is standing by in london. Its all about its all about merkel, i guess, this morning, ross. Yeah. Good morning, jay. Angela merkel is going to serve as chancellor for the third time. Her party almost getting her grouping almost getting an overall majority which would have been a huge surprise. Just around two, three seats short of achieving that. Waiting for the official count. Nearly 42 of the vote. Her junior party, the fdp, failing to get seats in parliament for the First Time Since weve had the federal republic. So Angela Merkel going to have to work with coalition partners. We think theyll talk about trying to form a grand coalition with the sdp who department be do as well as some thought. Those talks will take place over the next few weeks. We may not get a new coalition formed until the end be of october. Market reaction to that, it was fairly sort of muted this morning. There would have been a big reaction if she had gotten an overall majority. Six to four decliners outpacing advancers. Were about in the middle levels of the session. We have been up and down. Were a little bit weaker now ahead of the u. S. Open. The ftse 100 down. 2 . The xetra dax, absolutely flat right now. Were only modestly high for the french and italian markets as well. We also had some data today. Lets show you where we are as far as sectors are concerned. Telecoms and autos doing fairly well. Basic resources doing well despite china pmi coming in at 6 month high. We did have a tick up in the composite pmis as well today for the eurozone. Up for the seventh straight month. Manufacturing pmis in germany were a little bit weaker than we thought. Some sense that we havent quite got the export orders out of germany. Were looking for a. 4 indicative growth rate for germany in the Third Quarter. Thats the sort of growth rate that Angela Merkel will be taking as a new chancellor. Bond yields are slightly higher on the back of that auction result as well as are treasury yields today in european trade, too. Back to you guys. All right. Ross, thank you. Finally we have some answers to whats happening in germany. Back here in the United States, there are still some massive questions. One of them hanging over the markets is the threat of a Government Shutdown. Ben white is politicos correspondent and cnbc contributor. What are the odds that well actually see the government shut down. I think the odds are good at this point giving the small time frame that we have. History would tell us that we always get a deal at the 11th hour. We tend to do that. Theres a short time that that needs to happen. The senate needs to take up the cr. Thats not a guarantee that there will be 60 votes to do that. Then theyll send it back to the house possibly with more spending in it. House republicans, what do they do at that point. Theyll be up against shut down the government or be true to their roots of defunding obama care. They wont accept more spending. They may send it back to the senate which gets us well into next week, close to the deadline. Id say the chances are pretty good wed go past that. They come back and see the poll numbers. My guess is republicans get blamed for it. They come back and do a deal. Id say the odds of a shutdown are pretty decent. Theres a lot that needs to happen between now and the week from now. The lead of politico today was citing steve leaseman of cnbc and the poll theyve done that shows the majority of americans have no interest in defunding obama care, particularly if its linked to defunding the government. Yeah. Both the shutdown and a debt ceiling crisis in that poll. Theres moderate support among republicans for defunding obama care. Not a huge amount of support, but there is a majority support. If you say the price for defunding obama care is shutting down the government, possibly having a debt ceiling crisis, that support plummets among republicans who dont want to see that. The only group that is supportive of shutting down the government or forcing a debt ceiling crisis is the tea Party Faction in the Republican Party which is powerful and probably the most powerful faction. It is a minority within the Republican Party and its a minority in the the country. Are they going to shut down the government over obama care, probably help themselves in republican primaries next year but take a big hit nationally. I dont think they want to take that hit nationally. They havent figured out how to sell something to the Tea Party Wing that can get through and get past the crises. They want to keep the obama care front and center. You see the articles about whats going to be spent on both sides. I think the white house will spend a billion dollars promoting it and then you have whatever, whats cokes group, citizens for prosperity. Whatever it is, theyll spend money on the other thing. I like this piece that your paper did. Andrew l. Sorkin of the New York Times. You are not of the New York Times. Theyre talking about the column. You are of squawk box. They could have said that. Did you see this, lower premiums to come at fewer choices. They talk about, i dont know, it will be a lot cheaper. Apparently you have to go see veterinarians most of the time for a lot if you have did you read this, beltway ben . I have not read that. To see a real doctor there will be a under obama care, is that the deal . Its interesting that the times decided to write that piece. Republicans want to keep it front and center. To see a specialist is going to be my dad go go to a vet. He did go to a vet . The dog was there for limes disease. What kind of pills what dosage would you give for a dog that weighs 180 pounds. Cramer did it on seinfeld. He had a cough. They gave him some kennel cough. He started itching, laying on the couch. He ran away from jerry like a dog would. The biggest concern among ceos is Health Care Costs. Youre looking at 30 appreciation based on current expense ratios. Its a big problem and its not an expense that can be transferred to the consumer. Right. I think the deal is that people are concerned about. Theyre concerned about obama care, costs of it, implementation of if. Not so concerned that they want to see the defunding. Theyd rather see lets fix what needs to be fixed. Lets do tweaks to help employers or keep the costs down. The majority of the country is not in favor of shutting down the government, threatening the full faith and credit of the United States over obama care. Do you think even if its a short term shutdown it has a longer term impact . I think it has some impact. Its one of the situations where once again the numbers seem to be doing fairly well. The real economy is healing and doing better. Washington, once again, is going to threaten to knock that down. I dont think a short shut down would take a huge hit on confidence or any of the other measures of the economy. If you get a longer one, ten days, two weeks, that starts eating into peoples paychecks. People get money from the federal government. Its not like its a smaller employer. The bigger question is the debt ceiling. If he would cant get close to a deal before we hit the zero date in october, thats a problem. Highlights were ben bernanke may have done what he did with not tapering. Precisely. Wait out the washington storm. Millers point is youre making it easy. Its easy for them to do it. All right, beltway. Dude. Thank you. Beltway ben. Thanks. Its not its Advertising Week. Its not like fashion week. Seventh avenue. Are you leaving the jacket on because that might be too much if you took it off . Im leaving the jacket on because the shirt is too much. Show me a peek. I had a dry cleaning problem. Show my peek. A dry cleaning problem. He looks like madmen. He looks like john hammond. I was running out of shirts, the honest answer. At home i was running out of shirts. Its okay. On camera, that looks good. I dont see a problem. The collar is so spread. It actually goes around. No, no, no. Thats high fashion. I was thinking the jacket would give a little bit of comp. Andrew, im looking on camera. It looks good. Plus, you want the pecks out. You look like jon hamm. Thank you. You can come up every day. Sucking up big time. In the old days collars used to come off. I know. They would detach. Does that come off . That does not. Maybe it should. It is a little too wide. Thats a spread, dude. It was a purchase that only i appreciated after. Purchase in the loosest sense of the term. Did you pay for that . I think actually i did pay for this shirt. Thats not one of ours . No. Thats not from adam . Brian. Brian. That guy. Yeah. You guys get free shirts . We have people who youre a contributor. You should help them up. That looks like a free one but you paid for that . All right. Thousands of attend december that actually looks good. Are gathering in new york city. She wants to Say Something nice about rutgers because they beat arkansas. I forgot about that, but thank you for bringing it up. Big win. Didnt look like they were going to. Are you going to the big ten . Yeah, next year. You have to start this is something winning some big games. You have to be able to play arkansas. Its still nerve racking and its still nail biting. Ugly uniforms. The black ones. Its ad week thats why miles nadal what were you, ad person . I dont remember. You drew a lot of awards. Miles nadal, chairman of nbc partners. Does it happen on madison avenue . It happens throughout the whole city. Its a big deal. It really is a big deal. Tell me for people who dont know. First of all, advertising is the seventh largest industry in america. Its about a 650 billion industry globally. 325 billion in the United States. Growing 3 to 5 in the year. I think the big highlights of ad week is the growth of mobile. So mobiles about 20 billion of ad spent. Its expected to triple. So go up to 60 billion by 2017. Some interesting facts. So facebook, 41 of all of their advertising is now mobile up from virtually zero, you know, 18 months ago. Twitter, its ad revenue has gone from 288 million to 512 million over a 12month period. So mobile is the big issue. When you think about what our economy is today. Manufacturing, hopefully it comes back, but its all about things like social media, which really at its core is based on advertising. All of the media we talk about, were in the media, whats going to happen with dvr play back, thats about advertising. Its all about advertising is a huge part of everything we speak about, every company. Think about where we were before. You didnt have a twitter account two years ago. No. I dont like it. How many followers do you have on twitter now . He has a lot. Not like katy perry. No. How many does she have . 44 million. More than obama. 44 million . More than obama. I thought i was doing well. More than obama. These are little mini media outlets. Justin bieber has about 40 million. The super bowl only attracts 130 Million People so this is peoples money how much money do they make as media brands can they make off their twitter feeds . I dont think its about their twitter feed, its about the application to other things. Its about other brands that they build around it, etc. It is very powerful. I think its the one area that people underestimated was the power of social media and its growth. 36 of all companies now have a dedicated social media group in their marketing areas and it is growing very, very rapidly. You know, social media, weve learned from social media is weve learned as much from the brand evangelists as we do from the brand detractors. One of the things clients are looking at is what information are we finding out quickly in a timely basis about what consumers dont like . Advertising spending is strong. It usually reflects gdp growth. So Third Quarter i think youre talking about 1 1 2 gdp growth going to 2 in Fourth Quarter. Ad spend will probably be 2, 2 1 2 this year and probably grows to 3 next year in line with gdp growth. Its the shift thats important. Its the shift toward social media, online spend overall will grow double digits. And i think youre seeing a Huge Movement of the integration of campaigns, like super bowl. Youll start seeing super bowl activity in december and january linked toward super bowl ads on so youll have, you know, contests and special events and youll have online campaigns starting well in advance, and my bet is that youll see a 5 to 10 increase in the cost of a super bowl spot in 2014 over 13 and last year was about 3 million bucks a minute. Po second ad. I was listening to a game on my iphone. Using an nfl. Com application that allowed me to listen to the radio and i heard the bengals beat the packers on this crazy play. First time in nfl history that a team was up by 14, down by 16 and then won the game. 140, then it was 3014, then they won 34 when would you have thought that you would use that mobile device for watching a special event, sporting event . Its my life. Hey, those craft berry nation people, i havent heard from them. Theyre big, loud, obnoxious. Black berryians. Mention me. The company may have thrown in the towel on friday. I saw that. Be a little sensitive. They are canadian. The more arrogant they get, then you know its coming. Boy, did it come. Call me maybe. If youve ever dropped your smartphone, becky did that