Transcripts For CNBC Squawk Box 20170501 : vimarsana.com

CNBC Squawk Box May 1, 2017

And nasdaq up by 12. This comes after a big up week for the markets where nasdaq was up 2. 3 across 6,000. Closed the week at 6,047. The dow was almost up by 2 . Closed very close to 21,000. Were going to continue to watch, as we get closer to the opening bell. Take a look at crude oil prices as well. Crude oil was down about 29 cents. The big story was it was below 50 for many days last week. This morning, its down another 16 cents to 49. 17. Let get you ready for the first trading week of may. The agenda chockfull of Economic Data and earning reports, the ism manufacturing and construction spending, tomorrow, april auto sales, Paychex Small Business jobs and wednesday, adp, Service Index and fed decision at 2 00 p. M. Eastern time. Thursday, q1 productivity and factory orders, friday, april jobs reports. As for earning, more than 100 companies in the s p 500 reporting. The big names to watch, include conocophillips, merck, apple, facebook, tesla, kellogg and cbs. More than the holdings of United States and canada. Yep, you could buy netflix and tesla. 90 of that is still overseas. Brings us back to the question we keep talking about again and again which is tax reform will it will be something that allows repatriation in a temporary or ten days. How important is that, bob . Its huge. I think, maybe if we get tax reform, repatriation is 100 likely. Do you believe that apple is sitting with all of that cash overseas, not bringing it back, not buying anything because of it . Not necessarily. Look. Apple is very stingy with their money. We know that. I dont know they bring the money home and all of a sudden, theres some major acquisition. Just gives them norflexability to buy a little more stock back. And its not apple specific. Theres a lot of money that youll be waiting to see what industries yeah. Technology and health care by far are the two biggest beneficiaries of this. Theyre among the sectors doing the best from an earnings standpoint. From a future development standpoint. I think the sectors can be overweighted in portfolios. Regardless of is this, this is icing on the cake. Be looking ahead to the marketing next weekend the second and final round of the French Election. Wednesday is the last debate. Marine le pen, far right and independent centrist emmanuel macron. Friday people head to the polls to elect the next president. You can expect an indication of the winner in the afternoon sometime in the United States on sunday. That will give us a big expectation for monday, with the markets. For the most part, bob, people are expecting the centrist le pen to pin. But i have heard other reports some of the left labor unions being unhappy with him. Saying hes too market centrist. Too much of a capitalist. As a result, they may not vote. What happens if he didnt get enough votes, if Marine Le Pen wins . That will be a lot of problems for a lot of things, starting with the marketing and the euro. I agree. Some people might sit home but other people are going out. This is not going to be close. Breaking overnight, the big story that may be moving the markets, lawmakers reaching a deal for the final five months ago of the fiscal year avoiding a Government Shutdown. Eamon javers joins us with more now that we passed 100 days. Thats right, andrew, were on of the second 100 days. Negotiators are working through the weekend to try to pin down the deal. We got word late last night that they have in fact reached a deal. We havent heard from all of the parties yet but were waiting for lawmakers on capitol hill to make sure everyone is in fact cheering the deal. Heres what we know so far about whats in the deal specifically. Democrats got a lot of what they were looking for. Donald trump got some of what he was looking for, including an additional 12 billion in defense spending. A permanent fix to fund coal Miners Health care. 1. 5 billion for border security. Thats less than what donald trump wanted. 295 million for puerto ricos medicaid program. And now take a look at whats in the deal. This is as important as what was in it. No funding for the border wall. Nothing for a Deportation Force as democrats have called it. And democrats have said there are no cuts in funding for sanctuary cities. The New York Times is reporting there are millions of dollars in here for additional security funding for donald trump own personal travel. That has been a Sticking Point because the president travels a lot to new york and florida. That costs some of those metropolitan areas a lot of money additionally. That funding will be taken care of in the bill. That means were headed for passage likely this week. It looks like that will keep the government open until september and well do this over again. Eamon, we werent there this year, we need the highlights from the washington Correspondents Dinner. You know, it was great. We missed you guys. To me the highlight was you missed us or you missed trump . Well, i missed trump and you. Maybe equally. To me, the highlight was woodward and burnstein. They brought them out. They look great. They sound great. They delivered a forth right lecture on journalism and the things that we value. And it was a funny, loud, interesting night. But ill tell you what, the big theme has changed from Obamas White House Correspondents Dinner to trumps Correspondents Dinner is we just didnt have those hollywood celebrities in the crowd. No jonas brothers. No kardashians, nothing like that. In many ways, personally, my take is that dinner had gotten a little brit out of control. And maybe a little bit of a reset was not a bad thing. Knocking it down a few pegs is all right. Eamon javers, great to see you, sir. We also have big Corporate News to bring you this morning, twe 21st century fox reportedly in talks with blackstone for tribune. The largest station operator, we should tell you the bidding deadline for tribune is this week. Under the terms of the deal, 21st century fox would contribute its 28 owned and operated stations. Blackstone has partnered with Media Companies before. Blackstone partnered with cnbc, nbcuniversal to buy the Weather Channel a few years back. A couple other stocks to watch today as well, fitbit issuing a statement after a woman claimed that her fit by the way flex 2 exploded. The company says that the initial investigation conclude chad the device did not malfunction. Testing showed external forces caused the damage, according to the company. That stock right now down about two cents about 5. What forces . Maybe somebody was banging on it, smashing on it. Thats what i read between the lines on it. She said it exploded something internally caused it. Theyre saying, no. U. P. S. Air maintenance is threatening to strike pushing the workers to settle a threeyear contract duty saying it would seek clearance to strike. Coach is looking at a potential 1 billion deal for jimmy choo. The telegraph reports that coach is on the hunt for Luxury Brands after last years failed attempt at taking over burberry. And the paper says that coach recently hired former jimmy choo boss joshua schulman. The big box retailer signing a lease to open up a development in essex square. As we start the countdown for fridays job report. Joining us is rob martin. Hes barclays u. S. Senior economist. Doug voyeur, and the guest host, of course, bob doll, chief equity strategist at levine asset management. Gentlemen, lets talk about the economy, whats been happening because were coming off that weaker than expected weak gdp quarter for the First Quarter. Were looking at the friday jobs numbers. Rob, why dont you tell us what you think. Is the economy weak here . This slump is different than the last sulumps weve seen in the last five years. This is the week were going to find out if that was a temporary slump. We think its a temporary slump. Well get manufacturing tomorrow. Of course, friday, well get the april employment report. March was very weak, 98,000 jobs. Were expecting a big swing back from that, from 2005. We think all of the data from here on out will improve coming this spring. We felt that temporary factors held back growth in the First Quarter. I have heard anecdotally from companies that they saw weaknesses in january and february. But things seemed to pick up a bit in march . Things definitely picked up in march. I think the biggest things january and february was the delay of the tax refund. We have 55 billion behind in tax refunds. Thats a lot of money considering the ordinary valuation in retail sales is about 4 billion a month. We started to see that go back up in spending. It was weak in the First Quarter with Motor Vehicle sales. So, hopefully, when we get that data on tuesday, well see a bounce bounceback as well. How much of it is the economy . How much of it is earnings . How much is the Headline News youre hearing out of the washington . First of all, fundamentals and compliments joining forces. I expect manufacturing to be positive this week. Not just in the u. S. Its around the world. And its all been positive. Then you have the payroll report. But you have to look at corporate earning. It does seem nearly in the coal mine, it drives markets. Right now were in double digits in the First Quarter. Yeah, its not dying. Yeah, this is continued for 12. 5 q1 expectations. Top line revenue is three quarters in a grow of positive top line revenue. This is a sign that the Global Economy is doing well. And if you want to position for this, you need to broaden out your portfolio you mean broaden beyond ek equi u. S. Equities . Beyond u. S. Oequities. Many investors have been playing u. S. Lap cap or cash or fixed income. You need to get into not only emerging markets but global reits and across the board. I think thats, over the next five years, weve been in a very narrow market of u. S. Only. Now emerging markets when they start to run, they run. Im seeing most investors are very narrowly invested. Broaden out into large, mid, small. How large . Emerging markets, international. You look at the some of the emerging economies. India just had huge tax reform. You have brazil, more conservative candidates. Argentina, more conservative candidates. You have france that will elect macron. You think . I think. But well find out. But im seeing a conservative shift, not just in the u. S. , but around the world. Thats why i believe the Global Economy is getting going. Catching fire. And i think its going to continue. And it that will keep corporate earnings growing. Bob, youre usually focused on u. S. Stock. What do you think about that . For the first time in eight years i said dont only own u. S. If youre fortunate enough, lucky enough, smart enough to do big time, do some dollars outside of the u. S. Its not instead of the u. S. , its in addition. Are you talk emerging markets . European markets, japanese . Yes. Everywhere . Yes. A broad base. You said for the first time youre pushing usa. Youre pointing out that so many people are u. S. Centric at this point. I think there are a lot of people not comfortable beyond the u. S. Borders. Slowly and surely. You dont have to be brazen about it. Just start dollar cost averaging elsewhere. If you cant handle the emerging values do developed markets. But again, youre not saying sell your u. S. Holdings . No, just dont be only u. S. Centric. What are your favorite picks outside of the United States . So, i prefer the emerging markets to be developed. While we continue to get a good trade out of europe and japan, the populations are declining. You cant grow your economy if there are fewer people around. The emerging market is going to be good. This is what youre going to see this year, youre going to actually lower your risk by asking risky afterclasses to your portfolio. Youre going to see risks going down. Thats diversification, i would get right in. I would position right now. I see this trending through the year. Having said that, where do you think you can expect gains for u. S. Stocks . Are you talking single digit gains . Youre not talking losing ground . No, no, no. Still Single Digits in the s p 500. But i would say midcaps and small caps if you want to be more u. S. Centric could see doubledigit returns. I think emerging markets and international, yeah, im seeing doubledigit returns. Why be in singledigit s p 500 when you can be doublie digit everything else. Rob, what do you expect on friday with the jobs number . I think its absolutely critic critical. We always look at jobs to judge where we are in the company. Some what weve seen over the last quarter, a slowing in supervises employment in the United States. So kind of that edge coming off the services employment. We need to see that come back. Im looking for it to come back in the big states where its been weakest in ohio, pennsylvania, indiana where its classic manufacturing midwestern states i want to see a return in services. I expect to see it. Well see if it comes through on friday. Well, im looking at the Second Quarter. The average swing in the last ten years from first to Second Quarter is more than 2 . Thats right. Can we get that this year . I think we will. The First Quarter gdp came in 0. 7 . Were expecting 2. 5 in the Second Quarter. The big difference this year, we dont think the primary target in the First Quarter was the residual own residual seasonality that weve been talk about. We talked about confidence earlier, confidence is up. I dont think we can get those levels of confidence without some good things happening in the household sector, so, i think well see that rebound. I think the interesting part of gdp was business fixed investment jumped to doubledigit growth. We havent seen that in a long time. And thats where weve seen such problems . Yes. So its a very important thing here. Doug, rob, thank you for coming in. Bob is going to be with us for the next two hours. Its Small Business week in america. Our kate rogers is traveling the country to talk to entrepreneu entrepreneurs. Kate what is coming up . Reporter hey there, andrew, were talking to millennials and what is coming up in new ventures. Coming back after the break. Still to come, a cnbc exclusive interview with the former fed chair ben bernanke. The state of the u. S. Economy. Deregulation, tax reform and the fate of doddfrank. No top sick off tic is off the exclusive interview at 8 00 a. M. Eastern time only on squawk box. 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Just decided that i wasnt going to allow that to hold me back. Even with the little debt that i had, i knew that i would have the opportunity to really pay it back in full through the success of this venture. So, rather seeing it as a weakness, i saw it more as an opportunity. Reporter now, the key is to get the next generation behind the millennials interested in becoming their own boss. And here in the atlanta metro, theres a chapter of the National Program called Youth Entrepreneurs looking to do jut that. Over the past ten years, they worked with over 600 students including this High School Student who has caught the entrepreneurial bug. I was thinking of being my own boss. Not having someone tell me what i can and cannot do. I want to be able to make my own rules. Reporter programs like Youth Entrepreneurs are very important here in atlanta. And of course in the broader state, georgia which has one of the highest Unemployment Rates in the country. Students who go through that go through high school at a 99 ra

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