stated power for over 20 years not by being a reckless gambler but rather by being careful, even rational. trenen points out that putin has watched four waves of nato expansionism since he took power. his military incursions have usually been reactions to events rather than grand initiatives of his own. in 2008 it followed georgia's decision to retake the separatist province of south acetia. in 2014 it came on the heels of an uprising in ukraine that drove the president out of office. his one significant military intervention in an area that was not historically part of russia's core security sphere, syria, has been limited mostly using russian air power. in the case of the invasion of ukraine, putin's first effort was to bribe ukraine with an offer of $15 billion in loans and lower prices for gas, a