have changed and democrats are more likely to vote early and less likely to vote on election day so i'm not suggesting that's predictive of any outcome but it's astonishing how many more people are voting this time around than four years ago. >> how much an impact? this is the here and now. this is the president's approval, an average. our poll of polls takes the most recent polls and average them together. the president's approval rating is down to 44% and his disapproval rating is at 50%. >> right. >> if a year from now, the president's numbers are like that, good-bye house, good-bye senate and a lot of governor's races. is that enough to sink ter mcauliffe, the president's approval rating alone? >> well, i don't think so, because at the end of the day virginia is still a blue state and the dynamics, the shift of suburban voters over the last four years to the democratic party there, he's no evidence that that's changed. if anything, whether it's the texas abortion law, the big lie, anti-vax sentiment, if anything voters are even more democratic. suburban majority and minority