Testing order and if the federal government would come in and help us out that would be a cherry on top. Announcer this is new day with Alisyn Camerota and john berman. This is new day, tuesday april 28th, 6 00 here in new york. Breaking overnight, new projections for the coronavirus death toll here in the United States. The model used by the white house was updated late last night and it now shows deaths in the United States increase as more states begin to reopen. On april 8th, the death toll projection was 60,000 people, last night it was updated to 74,000 people by the first week of august. As of this morning, more than 56,000 americans have died. Still, the nation is moving forward with a staggered and haphazard approach to rehappening. In texas, the governor announcing an expansive reopening plan that begins this friday. First to open, retail stores, restaurants, Movie Theaters and malls, all at a 25 capacity. Meanwhile, their neighbor, louisiana, is extending their stayathome orders through may 15th, john. So overnight the white house outlined new guidelines for testing that puts the onus on states and designates the federal government as a supplier of last resort. They say they want to test 2 of its residents. Thats well below the minimum level that most Health Officials and economists think is safe to reopen most of the economy. Also there are new developments out of oxford, university, where were getting word of scientists moving forward with a Coronavirus Vaccine trial. We begin just outside of atlanta. Martin, georgia began reopening days ago. I really think the question is how many people are going out even with stuff beginning to open . Reporter morning, john. Morning, alisyn. Well, you know whats interesting . This Shopping Center is divided between those businesses that have its time to reopen and those that say, no, its just simply not safe. It mirrors a divide were seeing across the nation. And as this new modeling suggests, the death toll is likely to rise. So, the message is simple, you can open business back up again, but theres a price. And that price is paid in lives. A growing disconnect nationwide, reopen or remain closed . The country most populous state starting to lift restrictions, texas is letting businesses open at 25 capacities. Barber shops, hair salons, gyms likely come back midmay. Just as we united adds one state to slow covid19, we must come together to rebuild the lives and the livelihoods of our fellow texans. Governor greg abbott could have a battle on his hands for those who disagree. I respect the city of texas operation. But for those things that are permitted, reduced or authorized, my order will remain in place through the end of may. Texas loosening restrictions as is neighboring louisiana while also extending its stayathome order until may 15th. What we cant do right now is create new hot spots when we dont have the ability to adequately test those that we already have. Until we can ramp up that capacity. Reporter similar mixed messages in the midwest where wisconsin says it will ease restrictions on some nonessential businesses this week, even as michigan extends its stayathome order through may 15th. Down south in georgia, some businesses are already opening their doors. The governor defended his decision to start the most aggressive rollbacks of restrictions so far. I simply gave people the opportunity that literally were on the verge, many of them, of losing everything that theyve got. You know, these are tough decisions. So it wasnt a mandate. Reporter widespread testing remains a major issue for states, battling with the Trump Administration for weeks to help with supplies. And, after weeks of pressure from governors, President Trump laid out a National Strategy for increase Testing Capacity last night. But it puts the burden on the states to develop their own plans. If we want to get our country open and the testing is not going to be a problem at all. In fact, its going to be one of the great assets. Our blueprint describes how states should unlock their full capacity, expand the number of testing platforms. Reporter the president also suggesting it could be time to get kids back in the classroom. I think youll see a lot of schools open up even if its for a very short period of time. I think it would be a good thing. Reporter but 43 states and the District Of Columbia want schools closed through the end of the academic year, citing student safety. Even the governor of new york has begun to talk about the possibility of reopening, however, he said that it would be upstate new york that would likely reopen first where there has been less of the coronavirus. John and alisyn. Martin, thank you very much for all of that. Joining us now is the director of the Harvard Global health institute. And Cnn National Security analyst julia, the former assistant secretary of the department of homeland security. Great to see you. Juliet, for weeks day after day all we hear about is testing, how much testing we need, how testing needs to be widespread, and then yesterday President Trump said that the federal government should be the test supplier of last resort. Well, its been four months that governors have said we need more testing. Arent we at the last resort at this point and whose responsibility is it, in your experience . Is it the states or is it the federal government in an International Pandemic to do this . So in this case, it would clearly be on the federal government supply what was necessary to satisfy what the states needs are. Its not that complicated, right . The locals execute, they are testing individuals. But in this case, because the tests need to be certified by the federal government, they need to be authorized tests, so its not like its just a free market here, you would expect in normal times for the federal government to essentially have owned this, right . To make sure that each of the states have their own tests. So the news yesterday was just odd coming from the president. It sort of suggested that there was no new news. The states are still waiting. They dont have they clearly do not have enough, and just make it clear to the viewers, we are opening up under conditions that not even the white house would agree with in terms of their standards. And then and then saying to the states, well, you have to do it on your own already. Thats what theyve been trying to do quite unsuccessfully. The strublicture was no new news. And then the goal was 2 testing which makes it 6 to 7 million people, in all the states, which is according to the Public Health experts like you and economists ive talked to woefully inadequate. Thats not surveillance testing, dr. Shaw. No, the plan they laid out is a bit puzzling because they set this new target which is what were doing now. The way you can think about this, it will take us four years to test all americans, according to the white house standards and goals, right . So thats completely inadequate. And the problem is when americans go back to work, they go back to their coffee shop, the diner, are they going to feel comfortable that the person sitting next to them isnt infected shedding virus . And if we cant test people, we cant know whos infected. If we cant know whos infected, i dont think most americans are going to feel comfortable going back to those Movie Theaters and restaurants. I want to pull up the video weve been seeing of beaches in california, because im confused about how you should behave and distance outside. So heres a wide shot of a beach. And obviously people are hungry to get back to the beach and you see people frolicking around and doing all of their beach activities. But i also see what looks like blankets six feet apart from the other families. I mean, its really hard to tell, obviously, without being there. But if people are just staying within their own family unit and their beach towel is six feet apart, is it generally safe to be outdoors like that . So i think being outdoors is generally safe. And the key is, you know, so i think parks should be open, i think things that a lowe people to go for walks or wiebike ride but when i looked at that picture, i cringed because it looked like there were people getting very close to each other in the is just an issue of risk. The question for people have look, i love going to the beach, but do you really want to put your life at risk by going out to places if youre going to be in any kind of a crowded situation . So if you can have a fairly sparsely populated beach, fine. But looking at those photos, it made me nervous. They have to park somewhere, they have to walk on the sidewalk, whos touching the umbrellas, where are they going to the bathrooms . That shot just looked a little bit off. If you want to know what the real world or at least the mathematical world implications of that are, just look at the new models. Lets put them back up on the screen. People are now projecting that the death toll will reach 74,000. That is with the states beginning to reopen. That is with people going to the beaches in california or going to restaurants at 25 capacity. It increases the probability that more people will die. April 8th is when we had 97 social distancing. People were staying home. Now, when things are being reopened, more people die. But, juliet, the question is, you know, do we have to accept that . Is it something that needs to be accepted . And we just have to come to terms with the fact that there is more risk here . There will be more risk, its a risk reward calculation. No one expects for this to get to zero. And the reason why is because we are going to be living with this virus for some period of time. Were going to manage around it, dance around it, but people will get sick and some percentage of those people will die. That will increase as we let some of these social distancing rules sort of loosen a little bit. And so whats important now is that we when we talk about opening up, we really examine what the specific policy is. Theres opening up thats careless, say for example tattoo parlors. But then open up boating capacity or lakes in michigan. So as the country gradually opens up, in quotes, not everything is the same. And one thing to this model, this model does not count for what were calling excess deaths. In other words, if you compare january, february, march this year to the last five years, these numbers are now terrifying because more people are clearly dying this year, were just not accounting for them in the coronavirus count. So while this number, 70,000, is shocking from the perspective of whats actually happening out there, i dont think we have a handle on and its greater than 74,000. Really good point. Juliette, thank you both for all the information. So the only deaf nafinite way t protect americans is the vaccine. We have new details about a trial thats very early but showing promise. Thats next. The 3 40 midshift migraine medicine. Introducing ubrelvy™. Its the migraine medicine for anytime, anywhere a migraine attacks without worrying if its too late or where you happen to be. One dose of ubrelvy™ can quickly stop a migraine in its tracks within two hours. 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And in an emergency, you need a network that puts you first. That connects you to technology to each other and to other agencies. Built with and for first responders. Firstnet. The only officially authorized Wireless Network for first responders. Because putting you first is our job. A new development this morning in the race to develop a Coronavirus Vaccine. A group of scientists at Oxford University says theyre preparing to conduct large clinical human trials by the end of next month after tests showed their vaccine was effective in monkeys. We have the doctor from the associate professor of medicine at epidemiology at yale school of medicine. First rauf first of all, oxford has great pr people about this study they are doing. They also seem to be ahead of other studies right now in the sense that they are going to a largescale human testing up to 6,000 people soon is their goal to test this. What is going on with their vaccine . Describe what theyre trying and what the promise might be. So good morning, john. So i think what the status of their vaccine is, that initially they had a prototype for mers. As you know, sars was in the early 2000s, then mers a few years ago. So they had this vaccine that was already in the works. So they were able to use that to be able to basically create a new vaccine that could be tested for this new covid19 strain. And they are on the way to roll it out to test in 6,000 people. And part of what theyre trying to do is while the virus is still circulating in england, they want to be able to try to test whether the vaccine is actually protective for some people who get the vaccine versus those who do not. Now, im very hopeful with this, we all are looking for a vaccine. But whether it will work, number one, is the first question. Secondly, even if that does happen, whether theyll be able to roll out vaccine to a broad scale of people still remains to be seen. Dr. Ja, the timeline that the New York Times used was september. Thats nothing like weve heard from other doctors and researchers who are working on vaccine. Is that actually realistic that we can see something by september . So its extremely optimistic, right . Like, my goodness, i think it sort of is on the theoretical edge of whats possible. I think, you know, ive always said that its a 12 to 18month timeline. Until people until we have a broadly available effective vaccine. So maybe by september well have really good data and maybe well be ramping up production, and we do need to do some things in parallel, make some bets even before we know its going to work, lets start ramping it up because at most were going to waste some money, but the upside is we might get a jump start. There are ways of speeding up the timeline. September is very optimistic. Doctorry want to ask you about Antibody Testing here in new york state. Governor cuomo released new figures as to how many people tested positive with antibodies. New york city its about 25 . New york state its about 15 . Its hard to tell if this is half glass empty than half glass full. If more people have what had it it indicates it may not be as fatal as we thought. On other hand, if youre counting on some kind of herd immunity, 75 of people havent had it, thats Fertile Ground for this to spread. I dont think were at the point of herd immunity where that could protect people. I think what this gives us a sense is that in new york city there probably were more cases than originally people thought and getting a sense of the amount of immunity that exists in the population is always very helpful. And i think then we see that outside of the city that degree of immunity is less. But, i think that we have some sense of what herd immunity is there, but its certainly not enough to be able to say that people in new york state are going to be safe, that other people will not get infected. So i think it just gives us a sense of the amount of the population that has been exposed so far. I think the other thing to remember here is the science hasnt quite caught up yet. Were not 100 sure yet that if you have this antibody that, in fact, they are neutralizing antibodies, meaning that you have true immunity and could not get this infection again. And i think wed like to hope that thats the case, and i certainly hope that that is. But i think we still need science to catch up to be able to tillerson for suell us that another number thats caught people by surprise are the deaths, not just deaths from coronavirus. Apparently, according to the cdc, in march and the beginning of april there was a spike in deaths in the country, particularly in the tristate area here, new york, new jersey, connecticut. And were all learning so much during this process, little did i know that you can expect a certain amount of deaths per month, but apparently you can and the cdc scientists and you all know that. And so when they saw a spike of 15,000 more people but that those hadnt been attributed to coronavirus, now theyre looking back and thinking, uhoh, maybe we missed diagnosing this accurately. What are we to make of this 15,000person spike . Yeah. So i think what we are learning is a lot more people have been infected and a lot more people have died of the coronavirus than we know of. And there are a couple of reasons. One, is weve talked about this many, many times, just lack of testing, right . So a lot of people got sick, they were told to stay home because it wasnt enough testing and then they died at home. A lot of people died for reasons that, you know, we dont fully understand how coronavirus might have affected them. But we never tested those people when they died so we dont know. So i think what is going to happen, were seeing this, by the way, around the world. So what is going to happen is when we look more carefully, well find out this was a lot deadlier than we were expecting. Death is a real interesting way to measure pandemics. The 1918 flu is one way they go back and youmeasur measure how was. Jetblue announced that theyre going to require that all passengers wear masks on flights from now on or at least for the foreseeable future. Not a lot of people are flying, but i imagine more people might try soon, and it is an interesting place to be where when you get on a plane, at least a jetblue flight and i imagine other airlines will follow, everyone