That you have. We do this out of respect for our panel and each other. We do not want these things going off in the middle of our meeting. I am when to start by introducing our four panelists in the order in which they will speak. On this, socided there is no significance to be read into the order in which they will speak. Our first speaker is to my immediate left, david bender. He is well known to many Conference Attendees for his involvement in public issues and political activities. He also has been a broadcaster and an author. One of the things you may not know about david is that his interest in politics goes way, way back. And he, in seventh grade, took a leave of absence to participate in bob kennedy, Robert Kennedys president ial campaign. So [applause] [laughter] it is called truancy. [laughter] i was trying to be diplomatic, here. Leave of absence. Second is mary hughes. Mary is a seasoned political strategist and author, who has focused her efforts on increasing the number of women in congress and state legislatures, especially california. [applause] fromhould know that 19842008, in the nine bay area counties in california, they sent six women to the house of representatives, 2 to the u. S. Many of us know, celebrated the selection of nancy pelosi as speaker of the house. Mary had a hand in many of those campaigns, and she continues to be involved in working on an urging women to run and win. Escalchi,have daniel od a known voice and face to many who attend the conference. He is a political consultant and campaign strategist. He has worked in many emerging countries and tradition in transitioning countries, including Eastern Europe and the middle east. He also has worked on Many Political campaigns in the United States. He has a longtime interest in politics. When asked what got him into politics, he said, i was a somewhat nerdy kid, and i really loved politics. So thank you, daniel, for that. So glad you said that. I was afraid of what you were going to say. [laughter] i am trying to censor this just slightly. Last but not least, we have ana a cnn contributor and political strategist with expertise on latin america and hispanic issues. [laughter] sure you do. Stop ijacked it will it. She served as National Chair of john mccains Hispanic Advisory Council in 2008. She has worked on several other state and National Political campaigns, as well as serving as your as ambassador of the u. N. Human rights commission. You can see we have a very versatile panel. David is going to pick us kick us off. Thank you for being here. I also want to thank cspan for joining us today. I think cspan is probably one of the rare things i can say that has been great about television and democracy. Let us give a hand for cspan. [applause] television in the era of the bysecond spot, funded independent expenditures, largely undocumented money, has not done democracy a favor in recent years. Inception, since its has done something incredibly valuable, which is to bring an unfiltered view of our government to people. That was the intention. A lot of people were terrified at what it would do. To this day, since it started, every day it may be boring some, but it is invaluable. I encourage everyone to make sure their local Cable Provider includes cspan, because it is important to all of us. Having said that, let me say that this mornings paper asked all of us on this panel to comment on what we saw in the political crystal ball. The quote i gave is what i say to anyone who asks about forecasting the political future. They usually will start off with some polling data which says, if the election were held today, always think, this person has never worked in politics. It is the election is never held today unless you are actually asking the question the first tuesday after the first monday in november. We have early voting, so extend that in some cases to october. Truly, it is impossible. Ask some of the former president s, like former president , or former president , formernton president al gore, or former president Hillary Clinton, who wonthe popular vote, and the Electoral College as well, but did not get to serve. Nevertional wisdom is what ends up playing out. We are sitting here in 2014 and are going to have a discussion, appropriately i think, about what will happen in these midterm elections in november of this year. Still, a lot of variables. A lot of things will happen that we cannot forecast. People will tell you what they think they know is going to , but are smoking something that is not legal here in colorado. I will say there are some clues. There are some clues. What i am going to officially dug the Sheldon Adelson primary. It was held a few weeks ago in las vegas. You can tell by who chose to participate in that primary who is looking not necessarily who is favored, but who is looking at 2016. These are people who went to a Forum Sponsored by the worlds eight richards eighth richest adelson, whose principal interests are israel and the prevention of internet gambling. Which will of course cut into the fact that he is the eighth richest man, largely based on casino gambling in las vegas and macau. The people who went to las vegas to see Sheldon Adelson included a man you may have heard of, chris christie, governor of new jersey. Anyone heard of him . He has been out of the news a lot lately. I wanted to remind you he is the governor of new jersey, which includes part of the George Washington bridge. Of the George Washington bridge, as my good friend points out. Not the new york cap, which has behaved a little bit better. A number of other people went to participate in the adelson pri mary. They included scott walker, the governor of wisconsin. They included john kasich, the governor of ohio. They did not go because they needed a trip to las vegas. And scott walker did not explain what the hebrew pronunciation of his sons name is because he was uninterested in Sheldon Adelson s support. Shamelessat we call pandering, which is what was going on in las vegas. But they understood that this was, as was the case four years visit when they came to donald trump, they needed, if they received the nomination for president three years hence they needed Sheldon Adelsons support. He almost singlehandedly kept Newt Gingrichs candaces candidacy alive in the last election cycle through continuing to infuse money. He plainly intends to be a participant again. He is 80 years old. He shows no signs of slowing up. The Sheldon Adelson primary, to me, is some part of what we might call the political crystal ball, if we are looking for signs, tea leaves to read. The most interesting part of that, and i will look to our colleague on the payroll today, who has worked for former isa governor jeb bush the fact that jeb bush went and participated. I think that is a very interesting indicator. As a lifelong democrat, i will tell you that the person that i believe has the strongest possibility to both win the nomination and be elected president in 2016 is jeb bush. [indiscernible] you will ruin his chances. It is an assessment. And if i can ruin his chances, i have more power than i think i have. I will tell you that out of respect i do believe he believes he brings the strongest credentials to the apparently weak field. But he would give a great run. Whether he wants to run his brother has said, we have had too many bushes already. I will tell you, i think the fact that he went to las vegas shows he is at least looking at it. I do not think anyone, including Hillary Clinton, has made up their mind as yet. Maybe a few have. Maybe Rick Santorum knows what he is doing again in 2016. Most people are looking at it, trying to get the lay of the land and figure it out, but it is interesting to me that former , hasnor bush was present made some early trips. If you want to follow this, i will tell you follow the money. Household broke famously hal holbrook famously said in the garage scene in all the n, follow the money. See if anyone is locked up for a particular candidate. And follow the travel. Ask people in iowa, new hampshire, and South Carolina who they have met lately. That will give you some idea of how the 2016 field is shaping up, at least in the minds of people who think they are credible candidates. Does not mean they will be. It means they are testing the waters. Pointedlleague daniel out, if you were doing the same exercise early on, when then former mayor Rudy Giuliani was considered the frontrunner for the republican nomination, you would have thought he had it locked up. Conventional wisdom does not exist in this process. We will prove that by sharing our unconventional wisdom today. Thank you very much. [applause] mary, go ahead. Wonderful to be with you. My crystal ball is a little bit error. It reads in headlines. I will share six this morning. Agree that welso will see how it goes. The funny thing about predictions is, you help enough time has passed no one remembers them. We will see. I am happy, because as you might guess, there are things that perhaps are things we might want to see, or some of us might. The first is, the northeast, which led in new england, in new hampshire, with a suite of women in all of its statewide offices again the will lead region in the renaissance of women governors. Havehe last decade, we gone from nine women governors to the current five. Lead states and one democrat, Maggie Hassan in new hampshire. Pennsylvania, allyson inwartz, Martha Coakley massachusetts i think they will run strong. Theink we will increase number of women governors significantly, and that will be a major story in the 2014 midterm election. The honestys will be much in your headlines over the next dyanasties will be much in the headlines over the next year, and possibly for years. You will watch michelle nine in georgia in what is emerging as a very interesting race. She has a clear field against him unruly field of republicans who are repeating competing for their nomination. Her father, sam nunn, search 24 with in the house distinction, an expert on the Armed Services committee. I would keep my eye there. Well. Dall you know him that is another one that people will be watching closely. Sam pryor in arkansas. I think this is important, for reasons that have been alluded to. I do not know how much tolerance families tonvest in lead us. And it is hard to know whether the value that we come to know about them are so clear to us that we have confidence and or whetheris earned, we are a lazy electorate and it is easier to go with the brand they know. I think this election cycle and the next one will put us to the test. Aether you are looking for generational change or a shift in perception, some different approach to how we evaluate the generations that come after. And i think we are going to have an opportunity to do that. Hampshire,o new where we all know all politics in america is rooted. Contest in ther last 48 hours. Scott brown moved into new hampshire. Let me assure you, Jeanne Shaheen will make short work of that. [applause] i can imagine no voters in the you, live free or die are going to come into our state, tell us you are going to represent us. I thought, really interesting. Is ot know what it i am sorry. It worked for Hillary Clinton. The one thing you want to watch about that move is, who is behind it . And for what reason related to the president ial election coming up . I think that is an important thing to watch for. My crystal ball stops there. , where theyors race mayor it is unclear to me, from the left coast, what exactly was underneath this. It always troubles me when Law Enforcement officers bring charges so close to an election. I think a lot of information came out late in that election. And a woman councilmember beat the sitting mayor running for reelection. In the lasteen, months, in various pockets of our country, prominently in my own, unfortunate scandals. Not really scandals. Just crimes. Just people charged with crimes. I know the mayor of charlotte was indicted. We have a state senator in San Francisco who was indicted, following the indictment of two other state senators for unrelated crimes. I do think we are reaching a tipping point. Itask ourselves, what is that allows for this to go on and on and on. Antidote . E historically, the antidote to this problem has been elect women. I think you all remember, i arizona,the 1990s, in and the state of arizona said, are you kidding me . They had a governor who i think he was indicted. Women swept all the top offices. We call that, in our work, the virtue advantage. It has prettyu, much as women have become more prominent as leaders, that advantage, in many ways, has fallen away. But in some sense, for some voters and voters skew older, as you know there is some vestige of it. Whether that election heralds a trend it is not probably the beginning of a big trend. But i would ask you to watch how voters react in the next election to the issue of fast and loose. Point, to my colleagues , there is a great deal of foot with jeb bush. Bush, and ih jeb hope ana will illuminate more on this point. But the one i am interested in and i hope heralds a good discussion for the country is the acceptance of Immigration Reform as something that we must do, that we should do for a host including a compassionate one to keep families together. I think republican congressional candidates will be grateful to 12, 24, 36is next , because the language the debate has devolved into is divisive, and no one can move off their position. And he has come straight at it. He has said, we have to do this. We have to do it at her. There are great reasons for doing it. That gives everyone else cover to have a place to talk about the issues in a constructive way, and that is terrific. A simple shuffling of the lingo we end up in a highly partisan place on the issue yet again, with no progress. But a hopeful sign in the crystal ball. Think the decision by the Supreme Court recently on Campaign Finance reform is unfortunate. , and here istent what i mean. Thatu agree with buckley speech and money are the same, this was a consistent decision. Consequences of that decision, we live with in the concept forest mess between policy and money. It is unhealthy. It is unwholesome. Legislations our legislatures and or congress. I would just say to you, while i do not see in my crystal ball a short Term Solution for this, it is the one thing that will make a huge difference to the way we do public policy, and probably have a big effect on all of the other issues. So i will stop there. [applause] good morning, everybody. I had a crystal ball and i was going to bring it with me this morning. As i was looking at it, i did not see a reason to. I saw marion barry and the mayor crack, and itking got all cloudy. It started to dissipate a little bit, and i saw a tweet from anthony weiner, who lost the primary to glossy oh in new york, and i was afraid to read it. So i am going to abandon that. However, i want to up broach this panel a little differently today. I know we have many panelists here who are going to talk about the candidates and the playbyplay. I am going to step back for a moment and talk about something that i feel is going to affect the midtermn, election as well as the president ial. And it is going to affect our politics here in this country and abroad pretty significantly. And that issue is the fact that Many Americans today feel threatened. We feel threatened. Are threatened. Our standing in the world is threatened. Realign notgoing to just the electorate, but how politicians react to this electorate. It, i think about actually worked for doc Kaufman Hoffman when he ran. He was the First Tea Party candidate. I saw, in a sense, a reaction to this. There is a fear among the elect a writ of where americas place is in the world today. Its is going to have very is shifting the politics in this country. But i will also step back even further for just one moment. Democracies and those countries that associate themselves with it, we are seeing this in those countries as well. Hungary just elected a Prime Minister again and gave him a greater far right majority. We know what is going on in israel. We see this going on in france and germany, in the netherlands. People are feeling threatened. Act to america. Let us talk about how this is going to affect the politics, the politicians, and the policy they are going to start promoting and elections. Spoke about the tea party panel yesterday. I do not know how many people were there for that. You already see that a lot of those pushbutton issues that fomented the anger within the tea party more issues that are now being coopted by the Establishment Republican Party fiscal responsibility, school choice, issues like that. See thate going to major parties are going to start to adopt it, and so are the candidates. They are going to adapt a portion of that. It is very understandable. Unemployment is still rather high. Making a lot of money, because they are more productive. But they are being more productive with fewer people. They are not hiring back a lot of people we let go during the recession. On the economic front, how our candidates are going to address these issues is going to have a major impact. I am glad you brought up immigration. The immigration report Immigration Reform this is why you had people like john mccain. In the very early stages, all for the dream act. The Establis