the promotion of acting defense minister would actually strengthen their resolve to stay and fight. and so another lesson learned was the need to plan early and extensively for low probability, high risk scenarios. i should note here that our experiences in afghanistan informed our decision to set up a small group of experts for worst-case scenario planning on ukraine, which included simulation exercises and our ability to forcefully and plainly speak publicly about the risks we saw of a pending invasion now, look, there's always going to be tension between highlighting warning signs that a country may collapse and under undermun undermining that same government that's a difficult balance to are strike but in ukraine and before that in ethiopia for that matter, we prioritized earlier drawdowns of our personnel when each of those capitals were under threat in fact, months before russia's