triumphant moment is perilously close to turning into a political disaster. the likes of which we haven't seen in 100 years. that's because kevin mccarthy, the clear favorite to be speaker, is still short of the 218 votes he needs to actually win the position. if he fails, republicans would have to keep voting until someone does get the votes but it is anyone's guess who that might be. i want to bring in nbc's garrett haake, basil smeilkle, executive director of the new york state democratic party and with us, former florida congressman and msnbc analyst. garrett, first to you. where do things stand right now? >> well, there is nothing about that exchange with my colleagues predicted a ton of confidence from kevin mccarthy and it is easy to see why that is the case, he has been moving backwards over the last 36 hours or so, he started this past week, or the new year, if you like, with about five republican hard no votes against him. the number that needed to get down to four. well, last night, a group of