Going to lose. Tonight, our bipartisan list of the candidates we cant believe have a real shot at winning. Senator jackson claims to be for the people. All in starts right now. That comment is not politically correct. Good evening from new york. Im chris hayes, its election have no america which means tomorrow is election day and millions of people across the nation are greeting that news with a giant collective shrug. That thick line at the bottom, the blue one there, that is the interest in tomorrows elections charted against the previous two, which, as you can see, is much, much lower than it was in either of the last two midterms, and i get it. Are watching the least Productive Congress in u. S. History, it is in fact hard to get invested in the used that four or five senate seats changing party will make that much of a difference. So, i think a lot of people understandably have come to the conclusion that it doesnt really matter what happens tomorrow. The next two years will be the same more or less no matter what, and it is tempting to believe that. But it is not true. In fact, it is a dangerous dilution because which party controls, United States senate, matters a lot. Its four of the Nine Supreme Court justices in that photo there are over the age of 75. So there is a very real actuarial possibility of a vacancy on the court in the next two years, and the senate needs to confirm whoever fills that vacancy, which means tomorrow the Supreme Court, a third the branches of the u. S. Government, is then oballot and not. Should add, the Supreme Court in some abstract sense that building there with the columns and the justices firing questions. There are specific big cases we already know about right now that are very likely headed to that building you see there on the screen. Like the case, for instance, that threatens to destroy the new obamacare insurance exchanges in 36 states. Or the case that it will decide whether texas can potentially disenfran chines some 600,000 voters, many over them black and latino, under the states new voter i. D. Law, or the biggs case on abortion rights since roe v. Wade was decided to determine if its okay for states to regulate abortion clinics out of existence, as texas has just done, passing a law that shutterrerred 80 of the clinics. So Voting Rights not just in texas but across the south and throughout the country, abortion rights not just in texas about throughout the country, theyre headed to the court and the court is on the ballot tomorrow which means all of those are very much on the ballot tomorrow. Also up for vote tomorrow, the way the government spends money. Which sounds banal or whatever but is more important than you might think. The real victory have 2010 tea party wave, let us recall the wave brought into power during the last midterms when conservatived voted in far greater numbers than liberals and progressives, the greatest victory of that election was take together hatchet to the part of the government that spends money on public goods and people who dont have much power. The congress produced by that election, congress cut 8. 7 billion from the food stamp budget. The National Institutes of health alone lost 1. 71 bill during sequestration, process put into play in 2011 after those conservatives were elected. Those cuts, they were big and real, and they might just be the start. Because if republicans control the senate theyll have two key pieces of leverage the night time they want to go after programs they dont like and cut them. Theyll be able to pass spending bills with a simple majority through a process known as reconciliation, and that is important because it means they dont have to meet the 60vote filibuster threshold. Hey they just need a simple majority. Number two, they will be able to control the amendment process which sounds on secure and boring but is the most powerful thing you can do in the United States senate, because they can add whatever they please to a spending bill and send it right to the president s desk, and the president will then be presented with a choice, veto a bill chockfull of g. O. P. Amendments and thereby risk a big messy Government Shutdown that hurts millions of people, many of the people that are his supporters, or sign a bill chockful of g. O. P. Amendments and do damage to his agenda and americans who are counseling on him. This isnt my pet theirry. Mitch mcdonnell made a proke preliminary to do exactly, presizely what im describing if republicans get a Senate Majority tomorrow, saying, obama, kuwait, needs to be challenged and the best way to do that is threw a funding process help has to make a decision if theres more he likes than dislikes. Like adding re lakeses to the epa. The regular layings on coalfired power plants the most important thing the government is doing right now. The biggest part of the obama domestic policy legacy since he was rodriguez elected and those regulations are set to reduce emissions and could permanently alter the trajectory of American Power generation towards renewables and away from coal and the Carbon Pollution that is threatening mass catastrophe and all civilized life, and that, that signature achievement, hangs perilously in the balance. Thats very much on the ballot tomorrow. The republicans have told you it is. Joining me now is senator shell don whitehouse. You work in the United States senate. I want to hear from you, given the fact that very little seems to get dub, given nance consent, the filibuster, all the way from the minority to block and obstruct, how much does it matter for Sheldon Whitehouse when he wake up the day after the republicans control the senate and goes into work . Well, it matters a lot. I sit, for instance, on the environment and public works committee, and having Barbara Boxer be the chairman of that puts news a very good direction. Having jim inhave from oklahoma, who claims that the entire Climate Change thing is just a big hoax, having him in charge, that really changes things for the worse. When the gavel changes, the ability not only to control legislation but to investigate changes, and one of the things we can clearly see coming is the intention of the republicans to torment the president , either with the kind of mishmash of poison republican pills attached to mustpass legislation, that you talked about, or just flat out investigations, candidates or using the word prosecute about the president and you can get a sense where theyre likely to go. Those are two of the things they can do. Walk me through this in the more granular fashion. Talking about inhofe as the chair of the committee, guy who is probably the number one climate denier in all of congress, very proudly so, says its a hoax, a big sort of cause of his to deny the scientific consensus. What does it mean when epa appropriations come up . What can he do holding that gavel to actually impact the agenda . Well, he can refuse the easiest thing is to refuse to reauthorize epa because the chairman has a lot of discretion about what goes forward. Once the substance of something comes the committee, then every senator has a bit of involvement but where the really strong stoppers are for them is without a Committee Chairman you really cant get a bill out of committee, and if you cant get a bill out of committee to the floor, the only way to bring it to the rule is under rule 14, where the majority leader brings it directly to the floor and with a republican majority leader you wont get it that way either, so you can shut down legislation. You can imagine a scenario, not far fetched particularly republicans of have been railing against the epa regulation saying were not going to reauthorize the epa until you tell them to stop doing this and to hold it hostage. They could bill a undo the restrictions on carbon coming out of existing power plants and attach it to, say, the highway bill, and just dare the president. What are you going to do . Shut down the Highway Program . And i think theyre less avers to government being broken because of the nature of their philosophy. So if they break it, i think they mind less. Even though its our american government. And particularly in the environmental area. Bear in mind on the house where they control it already, they have passed more legislation attacking environmental regulations than theyve passed to repeal obamacare. Theyve actually jives you think they hate obamacare a bigger gettish of theirs. Absolutely. Lets talk about the judiciary. Youre someone who has been passionate about this, has been outspoken, i think it often can feel abstract and remote because were not just talking about the Supreme Court, although the possibility of a vacancy exists but the entire jude dish area federal judiciary, faceless group of people, as we have seen in the Affordable Care act case, all of that which came up through the lower courts, the decisions can last for 60, 70, 100 years if you get bad court decisions. And remember, the republicans in the senate, even when they were in the minority, were so obstructive and so objectionable about the president s nominees that majority leader reid was forced to change the rule so that we could clear judges at least below the Supreme Court level by a simple majority vote, and then they all had fits that had taken place so you know that in the majority they would shut down the president s judicial appointees unless they met a test of rightwing conformity that this president i think would not be comfortable with. Senator Sheldon Whitehouse, thank you very much for your time today. Appreciate it. Thank you, chris. Good to be with you. The big storyline of this election is republicans possibly gaining control of the senate, as i just mentioned. Isnt as simple for them to do that theres a catch and nate silver will be here to break it down. A 2. 7 gigahertz turbo processor. Kevlar fiber durability. 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Call Liberty Mutual for a free quote today at see Car Insurance in a whole new light. Liberty mutual insurance. The prize for the most disturbing election merrill in its come bepettive race goes to a Political Action committee in alaska and will seriously creep you out. And its perfectly legal. More on that ahead. [ narrator n to get richard to his campbells chunky soup. Its new chunky beerncheese with beef and bacon soup. I love it. And mama loves you. And mama loves you. [mony mony by billy idole she cokicks in on car stereo]y. Dont stop now come on mony come on yeah i say yeah yeah yeah yeah yeah yeah yeah cause you make me feel like a pony so good like your pony so good ride the pony the sentra, with bose audio and nissanconnect technology. Spread your joy. Nissan. Innovation that excites. [singing] mony mony you know. Theres a more enjoyable way to get your fiber. Try phillips fiber good gummies. Theyre delicious and an excellent source of fiber to help support regularity. Mmmm. These are good the tasty side of fiber. From phillips the bat 8 for the senate is right now according to that forecast, more up for grabs than the presidency was in 2012. So this election cycle i much closer than that one. At heres comparing them using the same model. The possible path for the republicans to gain control and the democrats are is growing clear with open seats expected to go republican, the g. O. P. Needs to pick up three out of step close races, ones in yellow to reach a majority of 51 seats. All seven seats are held by a democrat right now. If a republican wins in three of them the g. O. P. Is highly likely to get the 51seat majority. But theres a catch. Runs might lose a seat in kansas, georgia, or maybe kentucky, and if republicans lost any of those three, theyd have to bin more than three of the seven seats in the democratic column. Joining me now, nate silver, great to have you here. You guys are projecting the most likely scenario is 53 republicans. 52 or 53, could be higher, could be lower but there are seven or eight races still in play. Were skeptical about kentucky. It looked better for grimes for a while but she is down by seven or eight points in the polls. Theres not a lot of history of candidates winning when theyre down that much on election day. Mark pryor in alaska, polls broke against him, too, so two states more certain for the g. O. P. Kentucky lets remove from the equation. Talk about the seven, right . The one that is most what would you say the kloseest of the democratic. The closest is kansas. You had the undecided vote has grown as election has gone on. Were not sure what is going to happen there. Kansas obviously is held bay republican incumbent, pat roberts, and you guys are projecting that as the closest race. 52 for orman, a potential so a coin flip. Part of what make that difficult to model theyre not a ton of precedent. One good thing is that states which are not ohio and pennsylvania are get something attention, and voters who have not had a competitive race have chance to make an impact the poll stores dont have that much practice surveying close races. Kansas is redleaning and where the polls stand and how those resolve is not clear. Kansas and alaska and louisiana, all these states that arent normally competitive are important. Lets talk about alaska. A strange race. Begich got in over ted stevens when he was indicted. He sneaked in there. A tough race against the a. G. Dan sullivan but its been difficult to get a good finger on the pulse because theres not a ton of pulse. People complainve iowa, fivepoint range in alaska you have 20 range. The one thing to keep in mind is historically, republicans have done better than their polls in alaska on election day and the fact that democratic incumbents are likely to lose in arkansas but he supposedly invested more per capita annie candidate in history. When you look at building this model you have the average of polls. Anybody can do that. Now the other question is do you look at the history of these states in which on a statebystate basis, whether one party or other seems to outperform its final polling. Partisanship is a powerful variable. We rev has found that in red states republican does bert in polls on Election Nights than democrats in say that again. In red states, republicans outperform their polling margin on Election Night bit a greater margin than democrats outperform their polling margin on Election Night. Right. But we dont have any blue state races. Its purple and red. So its tough for democrats. You dont necessarily expect Michelle Nunn in georgia, which is becoming more purple to perform toward the higher end of her polls, or states like alaska or arkansas. Its close enough where if you do have socalled skew in the poll, then democrats could barely hold on. Theres a big question about the turnout machine. One place is in alaska and also in georgia. Theres been a lot new registrations in georgia. Michelle nunns polling average is two or three points down, its a red state. How do you cant for possible changes in who the voting pool is. We are hoping the pollsters do it for us and they have a lot of incentive to get things right. Sometimes theyre slowed by the cycles or overa react and the bias in polls bounces back and forth. Every state has different kirks, colorado has gone to nail voting. Never that hat occur statewide before. With that said, saying trust the polling average, and the best poll is the poll in iowa that has braley down by seven. What do you do on election day . Must be an exciting affair. Election days themselves are really boring because youveve already built the model. Sacrilege to talk too much until polls close. Were prepared for a long night because of the importance of alaska which doesnt close until 1 00 a. M. Eastern time, and then the g. O. P. Has 5775 chance to win eventually but might rear recounts, runoffs, and greg orman deciding who he wants to caucus with so might be an election week or mock but not election day. Theres a possibility of recount, so we dont know who wins, who greg orman is going to caucus with, and two states, georgia and louisiana could end up in runoffs. Its kind of like if when a jury is convening, a quick verdict means guilty. Democrats want voters to take as longing a possible the longer the night goes. The longer we have to wait for fishermen in alaska, the better chance for people for people to look for when they tune in. Thank you so much. With all the way donors can get around who they are and who theyre giving mow, to whats the point of having an agency that supposedly regulates money in campaigns . Ill ask one of the commissioners that runs that very agency next. Bring expertie from across ge, like lean process engineers we asked who does what, when, where, and why that step first . 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