Get under his skin that his own running mate is not defending him. Im curious the kind of mood in trump world right now. You know, i have not heard that theyre upset by governor pences performance in any way or that theyre worried that he might have upstaged donald trump. There was a lot of pushback to that reporting from the campaign. But what i can tell you was that before they were deciding on who was going to be Donald Trumps running mate, there was some concern about choosing somebody who would upstage donald trump, somebody like Newt Gingrich or Chris Christie who is more of a politician, a more practiced politician, bombastic politicians who know a lot more about policy than donald trump does. So there is precedent for that feeling, but im not getting anything from the campaign about them feeling like governor pence did too good of a job last night. But what i do know is that ty want to get donald trump better prepared for this next debate coming up on sunday. I was talking to aides last week, and they were talking about getting him a debate coach
perhaps, also standing him behind a podium to see what that would be like. This next debate wont be behind a podium, but just to get him more used to that feeling. Also finding a way to get underneath Hillary Clintons skin in a way that she was able to get underneath Donald Trumps skin, taking her off her game and also pivoting to territory thats more comfortable for him. Governor pence did all that decently, if youre going to look at just style and the way that he was able to compose himself during his debate last night. Donald trump did not do that, but i can tell you this, chris, i have asked the campaign multiple times this week what theyre doing specifically for debate prep, theyre just not answering the question. Theyve gone completely silent on this idea. Hes had a pretty robust schedule. He has a Campaign Rally tomorrow or an event tomorrow in new hampshire. Were going to find out if he has anything else on friday or saturday, but remember before the first debate he had Campaign Rallies up until the days before and that seemed to hurt him
because he didnt seem as prepared certainly as Hillary Clinton was. So were not entirely sure how much debate prep donald trump is doing, but i can tell you the campaign did feel like he needed much more going into this second debate. All right, katy tur, thanks for that update from las vegas, nevada. Joining me now, a political reporter from the New York Times and editor and publisher of the nation which endorsed Hillary Clinton today. Why progressives should vote for Hillary Clinton. Heres the thing i found most fascinating. Donald trump such a maelstrom, the Singular Force and directs such attention, he so bizarrely fit into republican and modern conservative orthodoxy, in other ways hes a rejection of it. But then you forget that theres an entire Republican Party, theres literally thousands of people around the country governing at Different Levels that are not donald trump. This was kind of like whats
going on in that world. A great line today, if pence was a designated survivor o the republican primary, a man held away from the Carnage Trump has inflicted in the Republican Party, its conventions, orthodox es and pieties. I dont think this country will be the same. I dont think either party will be the same after this election. Its an upend the rules election. We saw last night an element of the Republican Party which has been descending, not ascending, even before donald trump thats interesting. Took this by that You Mean Social social conservatism. If you think what has roiled this election year, it has been populism, economic issues, the Class Divisions within parties, it has been economic insecurity and not the social issues which so animated the Republican Party. So we can talk all we want about preparation and this and that. Last night we did see an extremist give really extremist positions a reassuring face. But the big issues facing i think this country and both
parties, disruptive globalization, Populist Nagsablism and the end of party work. How they do it will be central to their future. I think that trump has shown that faith voters are not the faith voters we thought they were. Right. You know, that faith, religiosity, social issues as they are normally constructed are not necessarily any more the main drivers of politics in that part of that party. They have the same appetite on immigration, on populism and frankly on Rage Politics as the peer trumpista. You cant go back to that old model anymore. I remember in 2004 when the whole idea was the first evangelical president george w. Bush, Building America by tom edsel, theres a new rising evangelical base that would support this republican majority. My reminder last night was, look, donald trump, if hes elected president , there are
going to be thousands of mike pence acolytes, people with those Politics On Social Issues who will be in the government. Yeah, but im also thinking we talk a lot about young people, millennials in this election, we see even younger evangelicals, an unwillingness to go with Climate Denialism and which mike pence is, too, and donald trump. Weve seen an opening there. And weve seen, though not as clearly as we thought, Republican Party can no longer be the party of white sanctuary nationally. They think they can abouty. They think they can be. The Economic Security in this country, the bad health outcomes, the end of the Coal Industry which is not due to Hillary Clinton but to fracking. So how we as a country come together to confront these challenges. Donald trump i love we endorse Hillary Clinton. I say that only in the sense that when you see someone heading the Republican Party
poking an eye in the chamber of commerces eye and poking an eye at the orthodoxy of a failed, discredited Foreign Policy and Economic Establishment even while he has failed in a spectacular loser i think is important. This is what i find so interesting. Theres this little seduction to the left. Its not left no, there is, theres a seduction for little parts of the left in donald trump precisely because he has in many respects the right enemies. We endorsed Bernie Sanders because he was about inclusivity. Donald trump is about bigotry and hate. [ many speaking at once ] there are voters on the trail who say my first vote was donald trump, my second choice was sandruss. I likeshaking up a discredited establishment. Bernie sanders did that. Heres the argument right here. The atlantic for the third time is endorsing. So as soon as donald trump went off stage, mike pence sat down at the table and said basically yeah if we have to shoot down russian planes over syria, lets shoot down russian planes over syria. He was extraordinarily hawkish. The reason you see the Party Leaders behind trump is not that hes the president ial nominee, they think that if hes the president , its them in the drivers seat. Exactly. Its the Foreign Policy the usual they think theyre going to get their trade deals. They think theyre going to get their way. Yes. Because he so often but i do think anything we can do to force a debate to shake up the establishment youre [ many speaking at once ] we have toefeat donald trump. Sometimes Establishment Shaking involves figures like donald trump. Thanks for being with me tonight. Still ahead how Donald Trumps Headline Grabbing personality overshadows the larger problems in the Republican Party and how mike pence, governor of indiana,
is a perfect reminder of that. Did trump take advantage of a mistake in the tax code to pay no taxes after this loss. Using 60,000 points from my chase ink card i bought all the framework. Wire. And plants needed to give my shop. A face. No one will forget. See what the power of pointsc. Learmoret chase. Com ink announcer theyll test you. Try to break your will. But however loud the loudness gets. However many cheese puffs may fly. Youre the driver. The one in control. Stand firm. Ju wait. [click] and move only when you hear the click
that says theyre buckled in for the drive. Never give up till they buckle up. Narrator it wasnt that long ago. Years of devastating cutbacks to our schools. 30,000 teachers laid off. Class sizes increased. Art and music programs cut. We cant ever go back. Ryan ruelas so vote yes on proposition 55. Reagan duncan prop 55 prevents 4 billion in new cuts to our schools. Letty munozgonzalez simply by maintaining the current tax rate on the wealthiest californians. Ryan ruelas no new education cuts, and no new taxes. Reagan duncan vote yes on 55. Sarah morgan to help our children thrive. His tax returns showed he went through a very difficult time, but he used the tax code just the way its supposed to be used and he did it brilliantly. How do you know that . We havent seen his tax returns. Bhis created a Business Worth billions of dollars. How do you know that . When tim kaine kept hammering pence about Donald Trumps tax returns, it wasnt just about the tax returns. America has never in its history elevated someone to its highest office with Less Public Service experience than donald trump. But trump, of course, does have a long business career, which is American Public might be able to accurately judge as the entirety of his resume if hed release his tax returns. The New York Times revelation on trumps decades old tax return did shed some light on the subject. He declared a 916 million loss on his 1995 income tax returns, a Tax Deduction so substantial it could have allowed him to legally avoid paying any federal income taxes for up to 18 years. Trump first responded to that news by saying he had brilliantly used the tax laws to his benefit. Mike pence echoed that last night. Its actually the fault of wait for it Hillary Clinton. She complains about how i have used the tax laws of this country to may benefit. Then i ask a simple question. Why didnt she ever try to change those laws so i couldnt use them . You know why . She could have changed the laws when she was in the United States senate, but she didnt. But, as noted by our next guest, it just so happens there was an egregious tax loophole in the 1990s Created By Accident Which was closed by the job creation and workers assistance act of 2002 a bill that then senator Hillary Clinton voted
for and president george w. Bush signed and its entirely possible that is the exact tax loophole donald trump may have used if he did indeed manage to avoid paying taxes for nearly two decades. Joining me the man who wrote about that tax loophole today, josh barro. We should note were speaking in the hypothetical because we dont actually know. We dont know. Weve only seen the first page of this tax return. If wed have seen the whole return, we could talk more concretely about whats in it. How do you lose that much money . People havent quite grasped how big this loss is. Obviously 916 million is an enormous amount of money. But the provision he took, the Net Operating Loss. When your business has losses that exceed all your income, you have a negative income. When you look at all the tax returns in the entire country in 1995, there was about 49 billion of that which means donald trump accounted for 2 of the Net Operating Loss in the entire country. Of the entire gdp of the u. S. Right. All the different firms and places that are operating. Its just individual income tax, but yeah, anyone who has a business like trumps thats owned as an individual company. Did he really have 900 million of his own to lose in these businesses that we know did do very badly, in fact, in the early 1990s, his casinos, his airlines. He had three casino bankruptcies. So he did lose a lot of money, but there was this tax loophole. When youre like trump and you own this business and it goes bust and you lose money and the people who loaned you money also lose lots of money, normally those losses are split. The banks dont get paid back, they take part of the loss and you take part. The part that is really yours, you get to write that off your taxes. But there was an error in the way a specific kind of Business Form was taxed that basically allowed if there was a loss where trump was out 100 million and the banks were out 800 million, he could have written off the entire 900 million off
his taxes even though he really only lost 100 million. This is great. I love this. He could write off the banks loss essentially on the loan. Yeah. It was just a mistake in the tax code. It was a mistake in the tax code. As people started filing their taxes using this provision, the irs looked at this and said, this isnt right. There were years of litigation in the tax courts and it got to the Supreme Court in 2001 and the Supreme Court said the law does say this even though thats stupid. If you want to change it, you have to change the law. Thats how we got this 2002 change. But up until 2002 people, including potentially donald trump, could have used this provision to claim losses on their taxes that they didnt was not their loss. Yeah. So what i love about this story, is, a, its a sort of window into how complicated and screwed up the tax code can often be . Right. But in this case, it was fixed. They realized it was kraedz and they fixed it. This is unusually bad. Usually people with loss of income, this is a particularly
egregious provision which is why it got fixed. Nobody thought this was a good idea. It happened by accident. What i love about the story, this is like from two pages. The amount like eric trump and donald jr. Have at various times sort of let the cat out of the bag that the real reason theyre not releasing the tax returns is because it would we politically damaging. Theyve said as much. Not just the audit. You get a sense how much information would be packed into these returns if we saw them. If what the returnsaid is the story that donald trump has told public which i which is that he built this big empire, lost it, clawed his way back through his own genius and now making more money than ever, you would think hed want to release the tax returns. But i suspect what they say is actually that this loophole is what they use. This isnt the only Tax Information that weve seen. Weve seen this tax return Tax Information on him from nine different tax years going back
to the 1970s. The highest income he ever reported was less than 120,000. That was back in 1977. We know of six years in which he reported no negative income. So the question for me if this was a real loss like mike pence said in the debate. He had a bad year. When did he make all that money . Great point. Weve not seen any tax return that says oh, donald trump made 200 million this year. Thats a great point. Josh barro, thanks for explaining that. Sure. New battleground state polling, how the seemingly unprecedented volatile campaign is falling into a familiar pattern. Ill explain, ahead. The Paris Agreement alone wont solve the climate crisis, but this agreement will help delay or avoid some of the worst consequences of climate change. Today President Obama announced that enough nations have now signed on to the Paris Climate agreement for it to be implemented beginning in 30 days. The first of its kind global treaty requires each nation to set specific targets for carbon emission reduction, then report its progress publicly. It just so happens that earlier today t president was meeting with fema officials to prepare for hurricane matthew, a massive storm that has already claimed 25 lives that made landfall yesterday. After moving through the caribbean, it is expected to hit or come dangerously close to the southeast coast of the United States where Emergency Evacuations are well under way. Joining me now is bonnie schneider. What is the latest for the path of this storm . The track hasnt changed, chris, but we have a new position statement. Right now the storm is still a
category 3, its weakened just slightly. The problem is the storm was likely to strengthen to a category 4 before it becomes very close if not making landfall somewhere near the space coast in florida. Thats why we have Hurricane Warnings impacting 9 million americans at this hour. Just incredible. The hurricane watch extends all the way along the georgia coast because we are anticipating those strong winds and really dangerous storm surge. The category 4 storm comes perilously close north of melbourne by the time right around 2 00 on friday, but its really going to ride the coastline whether it makes landfall or not. Were going to see really just dangerous conditions all across the southeast. The track eventually taking it further out to sea but may do a loop. That will be next week. We have to get through the next few days. The dangerous rainfall and flood threat that were seeing from matthew were likely to see especially here in South Carolina where we could get ten inches of rain. Thats one of the reasons weve seen these evacuations happen in the charleston area particularly in the low lying areas. Look for the impact continuing right now in the bahamas with 15 feet of storm surge then as we get closer to the florida coast unfortunately that storm surge will build in and thats going to be a really dangerous threat as well as the winds coming through from Savannah All The Way to charleston. Keep in mind this is a dangerous storm and may be catastrophic for florida. Bone, thank you for that. Nbc meteorologist bonnie schneider. Mike pence comes off as the sensible voice of the republican ticket. What that means about the Republican Party as a whole, next. And make you ill. Wow announcer but you can keep bacteria from ruining your day with 4imple steps clean. Im ready for the rinse cycle announcer separate. All woah announcer cook. Fire in the hole announcer and chill. Chipmunk we chipmunks are notoriously tidy. Announcer check your steps the roadchip to food safety starts at foodsafety. Gov. Chipmunk whoo this is awesome
i am very underleveraged, i have a great company, tremendous income. The reason i say that is not in a bragadocious way. Its because its about time that this country had somebody running it that has an idea about money. I have to tell you, im A Small Town Boy from a place not too different from farmville. I grew up with a cornfield in my backward. I dream of representing my home town in d. C. , but i honestly never imagined id have an opportunity to be governor of the state that i love let alone be sitting at a table like this in this kind of a position. With his outside poll rising in personality and utter disinterest in politics donald trump breaks the mold for either party. Not often that we get the running mates views on a beauty queen tweeted out at 3 00 a. M. Behaving like a reasonably competent politician with a decent grasp of policy and political norms. Its a low bar but appears to have made an image of the public. 53 said pence was more likable than tim kaine who took a much more combative approach. But if mike pence representing the kinder, gentler gop that party is as extreme and far right as its ever been. Its pushing an agenda thats not especially popular with the American Public. A flurry of recent controversies have dimmed his hopes for reelection. In past months federal courts have struck down two of pences key initiatives. In june a court blocked banning abortions based on fetal anomalies that mandated funerary services for aborted fetuses. Think about that one for a second. Just two days ago an Appeals Court halted pences attempt to
bar Syrian Refugees to be settled in indiana after he took federal money to do just that. Then there was the indiana law that would have protected discrimination of Business Owners by lgbt americans. After sparking a backlash, pence signed a modified version of the bill into law. Joining me now,congressman andre carson who is a democrat from indiana and knows congressman mike pence. I wanted to get your reaction. A lot of people think this is the first time they saw an extended mike pence and i will say he has a very kind of avuncular sort of manner about him thats easy to watch. What kind of governor has he been . Well, he hasnt been that popular. He and i worked together in congress. We went to lunch quite often. Personally we have a pretty good relationship, but hes been unpopular in terms of his policies. And i think what you have seen as you referenced the freedom and restoration act. During that debacle, the height of the debacle, we were hosting we were hosting the ncaa tournament, and also it cost the City Of Indianapolis over 60 million and lost opportunities to host future conventions. I think also one has to remember that governor pence voted against a minimum wage increase in 2007. And so i think that once one did submit deeper. He is likable personally, but i think his policies, he tends to be a bit too dogmatic. So i was pleased to see tim kaine firing back and being aggressive in terms of refuting the governors claims about mr. Trump. There was a long extended part of the debate about abortion which is something that has not been foregrounded by the Trump Campaign. Donald trump didnt mention abortion or life once in his rnc speech which i found remarkable. This governor has been, i would say, at the front edge of the
antiabortion Movement Across the country. Is that a fair characterization . Well, certainly i think hes been very pronounced in his statements and his actions. Mr. Pence is committed to his religious identity and principles and i respect that wholly. What we have to be concerned with, as some of my colleagues on the other side love to quote the Founding Fathers, as complicated as they were, the Founding Fathers wanted to get away from a theocracy, and i think those of us who are elected officials and i think tim kaine outlined very clearly when he had to deal with an issue regarding the death penalty, as an elective representative, he had to put his religion aside and govern for the people. He recognized that he represents muslims, christians, jewish brothers and sisters, sikhs, hindus, nontheists even and he
has to uphold the United States constitution and state constitution. So i think we have to be cautious of politicians who use their religiosity in a way thats dogmatic and an attempt to politicize and even proselytize to other people which to me is unacceptable. Congressman andre carson of the great state of indiana. Appreciate it. Thank you. Thing 1, thing 2 ahead. But first a funny thing happened at the trump rally in nevada tonight. I pronounce it nevada and thats how you pronance it. Do not pronounce it as nevada, people from nevada hate that. Meth overdoses are surging in nevada. And you know what i said . You know what i said . I said when i came out re, i said, nobody says it the other way. It has to be nevada. And if you dont say it
correctly, and it didnt happen to me, but it happened to a friend of mine, he was killed. Is it a professor who never sts being a student . Is it a caregiver determined to take care of her own . Or is it a lifetime of work that blazes the path to your passions . Your personal success takes a Financial Partner who values it as much as you do. Learn more at tiaa. Org no, im scheduling te to go oto the bank to get a mortgage. Ugh, youre using a vacation day to go to the bank . I know, right . Just go to lendingtree. Com. Get up to five loan offers to compare side by side for free. Wow, thats great. Wait. How did you get in my kitchen . Oh, i followed a raccoon in through your doggie door. [raccoon chattering] [gasps] get a Better Mortgage on your schedule. Not the banks. Lendingtree. When banks compete, you win. Just think of him a big cat [raccoon chatter] with rabies. Donald trump was retweeting insults about tim kaine looking like a batman villain. The same with russian connections, trump has repeatedly praised putin and the Trump Campaign chairman resigned after questions arose about his Business Ties with russia. Donald trump tweeted Hillary Clinton is the one with connections. This morning the clear winning example, the constant interruptions by tim kaine should not have been allowed. Mike pence won big. Just take a wild guess as to what were going to play as tonights thing 2 in just 60 seconds. You were there. You were financially secure it was glorious. How do you know that . I work at ally its my job to know about finances. What else did you see . Did i have a speedboat or anything . Toss me back in, ill check. Hes finding out if i have a speedboat nothing stops us from doing right by our customers. Ally. Do it right. Negati on the speedboat. [text message alert rings] [texting keystrokes] this morning donald trump praised his running mates performance but offered up constructive criticism for the debates moderator. The constant interruptions by tim kaine should not have been allowed. Let that sink in as we go back in time exactly nine days ago. Theres nothing crazy about not letting our Companies Bring their money back into their country. This is secretary clintons two minutes. A million new jobs, i wrote
about that. You called it the gold standard. I wrote about that so it is President Obamas fault . Is it President Obamas fault . But in education you dont even have a plan. Oh, i do. I did not do that. I do not say that. There is youre wrong. No, im not. Didnt say it. Women, men support that. Not. Donald supported the invasion of iraq. Wrong. That is absolutely. Wrong. Proved over and over again. Wrong, wrong, wrong. And the national have a playing a really. Would you like to hear. Why is your judgment. Wait a minute. Theres a person with a temperament thats got a problem. Secretary clinton. Woo, okay. And bans edibles that appeal to children. Smart provisions to safeguard our families. Learn more about the safeguards at yeson64. Org. Fox news is no stranger to warranted critique over its racial politics. Now the network finds itself facing an actual firestorm of controversy over a segment featuring one of its correspondent. The koerpt was dispatched to new
yorks chinatown to ostensibly discuss the 2016 election. But segment that aired had little to do with political discourse. Instead it trotted out a host of tire and offensive asian stereotypes half edited together with movie clips. How much trolling, antiasian racism can you pack into one news segment . More than i ever thought possible. Am i supposed to bow to say hello . I like these watches. Are they hot . Jcpenney. Do you like donald trump . Yes. Hillary clinton basically is an extension of obama. Who are you going to vote for . Clintons wife. Clintons wife has a name. What is it . Oh, man. I forget it. Snap out of it. This kind of shtick was played out and racist decades ago. Today lawmakers and civil rights orgazations are expressing anger over the segment. The Asian American Journalist Association is demanding an apology from fox news. Quote, its 2016. We should be far beyond tired, racist stereotypes and targeting an ethnic group for humiliation and objectification on the basis of their race. Sadly, fox news proves it has a long way to go in reporting on communities of color in a respectful and fair manner. Interestingly enough, fox news has not defended the segment. In fact has not commented on the matter. As for the comment he commented on what i dont think was meant to be a joke, as a political humorist and defended his segment my Man On The Street interviews are meant to be taken as tongue in cheek and i regret if anyone found offense. In completely and totally unrelated news, Asian Americans are the Fastest Growing racial group in the u. S. And could influence key Battleground States in the election cycle. The Asian American vote in president ial elections has gone from being solidly republican to being solidly democratic. In fact, new polling shows Hillary Clinton up 41 points among Asian Americans. In fact, that same survey found that Asian Americans are more than twice as likely to identify as democrats than republicans. And maybe, just maybe because they are completely repulsed by a Political Movement whose most high profile voices think its hilarious to punk and humiliate their grandmothers. Trump has been beating up on china. How does that make you feel . Speak, speak, speak, why dont you, speak. Boy, it really is impossible to figure out how donald trump came to be the republican nominee, isnt it . Using 60,000 points from my chase ink card i bought all the fruit. Veggies. And herbs needed to create a popup pickyourown juice bar in the middle of the city, so now everyone knows. We have some of e freshest juice in town. See what the power of points can do for your business. Learn more at chase. Com ink
to improve blood sugar in adults with Type 2 Diabetes wh used with diet and exercise. Trulicity is not insulin. It suld t be the first medicine to treat diabetes or for people with Type 1 Diabetes or diabetic ketoacidosis. Do not take trulicity if you or a Family Member has had medullary thyroid cancer, if youve had multiple Endocrine Neoplasia Syndrome type 2, or if you are allergic to trulicity. Stop trulicity and call your doctor right away if you have symptoms such as itching, rash, or trouble breathing; a lump or swelling in your neck; or severe pain in your stomach area. Serious side effects may include pancreatitis, which can be fatal. Taking trulicity with a sulfonylurea or insulin increases your risk for low blood sugar. Common side effects include nausea, diarrhea, vomiting, decreased appetite and indigestion. Some side effects can lead to dehydration, which may make existing Kidney Problems worse. With trulicity, i click to activate whats within me. If you want help improving your a1c and blood sugar numbers
with a noninsulin option click to activate your within. Ask your doctor about onceweekly trulicity. Nine days since the first president ial debate, the polling has not look good for donald trump. Hillary clinton has gained a point and a half while trump has lost a tenth of a point. Over that same period of time forecasting sites like fivethirtyeighth have taken her chance of winning at 70 . On its face the 2016 president ial contest has at times seemed unpredictable. Thats largely because of the presence of donald trump and partly because Hillary Clinton is one of the most uniquely polarizing figures in american politics. But when you widen the aperture a bit, the general shape of things doesnt look that much different than 2008 and 2012. In 2008 it happened after sarah palin, then democrats gained the upper hand and obama pulled out a pretty sizable win. In 2012 it happened in october after which romney was seen as the consensus winner. That race remained pretty close into the final stretch with Obama Holding a consistent edge. We saw tightening a few weeks ago when clinton had her worst week of polling after she referred to Trump Supporters as, quote, in a basket of deplorables and fell ill at the 9 11 memorial service. The question now will the basic fundamentals reassert themselves and does that mean democrats are on a glide path to victory . Joining me now a former National Press secretary for the Democratic National committee and former Deputy Campaign manager for romney 2012 and an msnbc contributor. I remember listening to david
pluth give interviews and he was unflappable. His whole thing was you guys are all freaking out. The fundamentals are the fundamentals. We know how many votes we need in each of these counties and swing states, we know what the composition of the electorate is. Dont worry about it. That to me seemed unpersuasive then but maybe looks better now . Yeah, well, i think hes right. The fundamentals are the fundamentals. The map is the same and the math is the same. Its a much harder road for him to get 270, but more than that donald trump isnt doing what he needs to do. He hasnt invested in data and kate can tell you how much strong data program is going to help on election day, or on gotv or on field. Now romney had 17 of the white vote in 2012 and he lost. Because of the demographic changes in the country, trump would need 22
you mean a lead of 17 , above the yeah, im sorry. Margin. If donald trump was getting 17 of the white vote wed be looking at a 9010 kind of election situation. Just so people are clear on that. Romney won white voters by 17 points. Demographic change says that trump would have to win by 22 . And he has 13 . So thats where my confidence in the fundamentals of this campaign are really high. And the biggest fundamental of this campaign that Hasnt Changed Is Donald Trump makes every single day about donald trump, and if its a referendum on donald trump, hes not going to win. Haris point about white voters, theres been so much emphasis on race and donald trump and race and the idea that he can essentially boost his performance along white voters perhaps at the expense of nonwhite voters by sort of
embracing this line on immigration or the muslim ban. But romney, romney was did better than donald trump is currently doing among white voters which is pretty remarkable. Well, thats the fundamental problem, and youre right, the fundamentals of the race are, as david pluth said, these Battleground States are tough places for republicans to win. You know, in spite of some of the mistakes that we made as a campaign in 2012, we did do most things correctly in terms of ground game in terms of get out the vote. And its just hard. Its hard in most of these states for a republican to win. You dont have any margin for error. And donald trump seems to be going out of his way every single day to alienate exactly the kinds of voters that you need to get you over the threshold. The problem with his whole strategy is these socalled Reagan Democrats that crossed party lines back in the 80s, theyve been voting republican for the last two decades. So those arent new voters. Those are the same voters that voted for john mccain and george w. Bush and mitt romney. We had to have the politics of addition if we want to win that nationally, donald trump is failing that math. Theres a more sophisticated version of that argument which is the David Wasserman missing white voter thesis, which he wrote in 2012. Which he points out, and this is factually true, there are millions and millions of White Noncollege voters who just dont vote. Theyre either not registered or theyre registered and they dont vote. There was some sense that maybe trump would be the person to bring those voters sitting Offline Online and theres maybe some evidence in states like wisconsin or ohio where he is sort of overperforming where you would think hed be that he is but it still doesnt look like its going to be enough. Yeah, i think thats right. The other problem is i do
believe hes energizing voters in certain demographics, but the problem is he hasnt been vested in Registration Efforts or get out the vote efforts, so sort of these Fallout Voters or the sporadic voters who dont vote every cycle that youre talking about are going to need extra help getting registered and getting to the polls and he hasnt invested in those programs. So those showing up to cast votes for him will be much harder to do that makes the challenge in swing states very difficult. Just yesterday i was in farmville, virginia, which by the way, absolutely lovely place, longwood university, farmville, could not be a more lovely pristine Idyllic College town. Talking to obama veterans, my brother was Field Director for the state in 08 for obama, at the time making a strong play in virginia seemed a real stretch. Were two cycles later and in both virginia and colorado you have states that have seen stretches that are pretty solidly i mean, virginias
remarkably performing for Hillary Clinton in a way i wouldnt have predicted. That stacks the deck even more. What you see in places like virginia and colorado is that for every voter that you were talking about that maybe hasnt been energized to vote in the past that is, you know, working class white voter, that may be coming out for trump, theres one or two suburban white republican women like me who have voted republican their entire life and cant stomach voting for a candidate like donald trump. And so again its just the politics of basic math. If youre losing a voter or two or every voter youre bringing in, the math just doesnt add up. On top of that, theres this sort of Ground Game Question which were going to sort of get a sense of. Hari, very quickly, do you think its possible for Hillary Clinton to do something like, say, lose ohio and end up winning, say, North Carolina . Yeah. I do. Andhe thing is, she can do that. The fundamental here is that
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