Mr. President , and you are not in saudi arabia, you are in the United States of america, it is a democracy. I have a pretty good idea of the method of his madness and what he might do to undermine the constitution. Hes trying to have the constitution of the United States swallow clorox. That he is. And his apologists. Its really its fascinating really. You have a president doing what no president has ever done before, and you have his apologists say, at, i dont know, the washington journal editorial page this morning going those democrats are freaking out. Of course the president shouldnt do this. But the democrats are freaking out, theyre going crazy. This really hurts american democracy so he shouldnt do it. But those democrats. Willie, oh my god. Its like democrats talked about Herbert Hoover for 50 years after Herbert Hoover was president. Poor, poor Hillary Clinton. Long after we are gone the three remaining republicans who were elected to dog catcher in rural mississippi will be blaming the outbreak on the common tick on Hillary Clinton in 2070. It is really sad and pathetic. It also explains were going to show some polls, willie. It also explains why this party is getting beaten so badly right now with a month before the election. Well walk through a bunch of polls that show we talked about the National Spread being 10 points between biden and trump. But if you look state by state swing states and states that democrats probably long ago didnt think were swing states getting tied in some cases theres reason for concern. Youre right. Theyre going back to Hillary Clinton. They want Hillary Clinton to be the nominee. Theyre trying to pin this on Hillary Clinton this talk about elections. Its amazing. Unbelievable. The president is still at his rallies doing the lock her up chant, talking about the emails. You get the sense he would like to replay 2016 and hes struggling to find his footing against joe biden. Yes. This is about as effective as those asia reunion tours where they sing the line and now you find yourself in 82. Were not in 82. Were not in 2016. Hillary clinton is not president of the United States. Hillary clinton is not the first president in the history of this great republic, to refuse to guarantee a peaceful transition of power. Heres the amazing thing, willie. Its kind of crazy if you think about it. The really stupid jackassery going on out there by people trying to stay close to the president of the United States where they dont realize what they write on editorial pages, what they tweet on their tweet machines. What they say on their internet like sites and i dont know whatever you call those things, podcas podcasts, those are forever. Like those are forever. So those words are going to be with them forever. And it just doesnt look good. You know, defending a president you know who really is sort of the winner in sort of the sweep stakes for trying to make nothing of something very significant. Again, a president who refuses to answer whether he will have a peaceful transfer of power had to be ben sasse. You know, the man of great public virtue ben sasse. Hell let you know hes a man of great public virtue, he always has. Did he say what john thune said . No, he didnt. John thune was courageous enough to say we want a peaceful transfer of power. John cornyn also, straightforward, said it. Even Mitch Mcconnell said were going to have a peaceful transfer of power. Ben sasse, he just says crazy things. He just says crazy things. Like donald trump is telling a knock knock joke. It really is disappointing. But again, that stays with him, that stays with the washington journal editorial page. It stays with other people in defense of the president acting like a dictator. That stays with them forever. But willie, well go ahead and open this thing up to everybody else. Mika is not here. And alex is yelling in my ear. I was just thinking maybe we could talk baseball, we can talk 30 rock, we can talk about peacock or do you want to get to im thinking of alex in control, hes freaking out. Well save it for later. With us this morning we have katty kay, Michael Steele, kasie hunt shes doing an incredible job. Its so good. Seriously. An incredible job. Willie, let me ask you im sorry to report yeah. Go ahead. I was just going to say that unfortunately way too early is no longer a yankees friendly program, willie. I apologize. You have bill karins still representing you, but i grew up with a love of the baltimore orioles, which has been a journey, but that also means you grow up really hating the yankees, sorry about that. I didnt realize that. We have to reevaluate this. The way too early brand stands for al east red sox yankees talk and nothing more. Exactly. I hate to say this, i think we have a brewers fan with us, jim vandehei, whats that about . How are the brewers doing this year . Were still in the hunt. If we can sweep the cardinals we can make it to the playoffs. And we do it the real way. Playoffs. This is kasies fault, she brought baseball up, we didnt. Lets hop into the polls. We have a lot to show you. Battleground state polls, lets start in pennsylvania where the latest franklin and marshall poll finds joe biden and President Trump statistically tied within that polls nearly 8 point margin of error, biden at 48 trump at 42. Fox news giving biden a 7 point lead in pennsylvania, 51 to 44. In ohio a tie, biden at 48, trump at 47. Fox news has biden with a five point lead. In iowa, a statistical tie there with biden at 45 President Trump at 42 . And in georgia, the New York Times poll shows biden and trump tied at 45 . The second poll this week that shows that state tied. In nevada, biden ahead by 11 points, 52 to 41. And texas, President Trump and joe biden in a statistical tie, donald trump leading 46 to 43, within the margin of error there. The latest quinnipiac poll has President Trump up in texas by 5 points, 50 to 45. Joe, take your crack at all of those, where do you want to start. Obviously weve seen over the past cutouple weeks since kenos, whats happened, joe biden has pulled ahead in wisconsin in some polls 7, 8 points. So the states everybody has been talking about, wisconsin, michigan, pennsylvania, and really ohio wasnt a part of this. Ohio and iowa comfortably fell in Donald Trumps campaign, but all five of those states across the upper midwest have obviously been part of the heartland battle. But you look at these polls. Lets start in pennsylvania, biden up 48 to 42 in one poll six points. The fox news poll biden up 7 points there. Then you go to ohio, this is a real surprise, ohio and iowa firmly for donald trump and there you have biden up, again statistically tie, 48, 47. And the fox news poll, biden up 5, 50 to 45. Obviously, if ohio is close on Election Night, this is going to be a blow out and joe biden is going to likely win by a landslide, if ohio is close. Iowa, 45 to 42. Again, a state that, you know, trump people told me a year ago wasnt even going to be close, thats a three point lead, 45 to 42. Then you go beyond that, Michael Steele, look at georgia. Georgia tied 4545. Nevada, which the trump people went to because theyre desperate to pick up another state because theyre losing states they never thought they would lose. He goes to nevada and his numbers just absolutely plummet. Hes losing there by 11 points, 52 to 41. Who knows, maybe going out there acting crazy, putting peoples lives at risk. I dont know. Maybe thats not a 90 10 issue breaking your way. Maybe that actually hurts you. And then in texas, we have a couple of polls, Michael Steele in texas, like all the other polls weve seen this year that are basically a dead heat. Donald trump up 46 to 42 in the q poll, but michael, thats a statistical tie. So as youre looking through these numbers and you look for good news for donald trump, man if the i were running his campaign i wouldnt know where to go, iowa slipping out of site, georgia, texas still tied. Youre not going to pick up nevada, stop pretending youre going to pick up nevada. Its not going to happen. Then ohio. Obviously pennsylvania looks like biden is starting to make some space in pennsylvania. But i think of all the numbers that stand out to me, its the fox news poll number in ohio that has joe biden up five points in ohio. Again, its almost like the craziness of the past week hasnt helped him. So a couple of things there, joe, your analysis ohio in particular is spot on in terms of where this campaign not only is, but where its trending and has been trending for quite some time. What i think contributes to some of the manic behavior of trump at this point, specifically his notion that all of a sudden now with more emphasis this election is going to be rigged. The internal numbers of the campaign are not just reflecting what youre seeing on these sort of broader big polls by fox and others but its showing a trend that is troubling and problematic for the president. Particularly when you look at the republican wall, iowa, georgia, and a texas. And when you look at those states, texas should be a blow away for trump. I mean, this shouldnt be a conversation. It should be over. Right. It shouldnt even be a conversation. Same in iowa and georgia for that matter. Whats happened is, as reflected in ohio, is that the voters are settling and have settled for some time away from trump. And trump has not done anything to broaden that base vote that he needs to hold these states in line. So the problem becomes even ohio is reflective of this, is even greater in places like missouri, michigan, wisconsin, pennsylvania, and nevada, where they were planning to create a new beachhead. So the polling out today, again a snapshot, we get it. But these are state polls, this is not a national snapshot. These are state polls so this gives you a better sense, joe, of where the campaign is beginning to settle. And the wall that donald trump needed to breach is not only getting tougher to do so, its getting higher and more difficult at every turn. So, jim, you come from packer country. Lets talk about the midwest for a second here. After Ruth Bader Ginsburg died, Dave Wassermann pulled out some polls which didnt surprise me at all but are pretty stark. I looked at them originally as being real concerns for candidates like joni ernst. This is what he wrote, although trump down played abortion in 2016 voters with mostly prochoice attitudes made up about a fifth of his support in battleground states in iowa 25 of Donald Trumps supporters in iowa identified themselves as prochoice. This iowa poll taken mainly after Ruth Bader Ginsburgs death shows donald trump down now three points in iowa. Florida 24 . Pennsylvania 24 prochoice voters who voted for donald trump and, of course, we see whats happening in pennsylvania. But lets go to ohio. In this ohio poll by fox news that was taken days after Ruth Bader Ginsburgs death. Donald trump now down five points in ohio, thats a state where 20 of voters that voted for donald trump in 2016 considered themselves, prochoice voters. And the prospect. The very real prospect now that donald trump is going to ensure that roe v. Wade is overturned, ive seen it. Voters wont make that the top issue if for the most part on the democratic side some do. But if youre really at that point where donald trump is going to be responsible for the overturning of a 50year prochoice precedence, thats going to have an impact. And look at the bidpolls where biden is moving ahead, seems to be the case. A cutchouple ways to look at this, if you talk to strategists on both sides, both saying theres a chance to win but only one can win in a blowout, thats biden. Youve gone through all the numbers, all the states that could easily go for biden if youre looking at the numbers, i think obviously thats what democrats are rooting for. Another way to look at it, go down each of the polls you showed, almost all of them are in the margin of error despite the things that donald trump has done and said, and the number you have on your screen, 204,000 people dead because of the coronavirus and hes still within the margin of error in all of these states so it will become a turnout battle. I think the worst possible outcome for the country is a razor thin margin on election day. We cannot emphasize enough about donald trump is saying the last couple days i may not accept the results of the election and turn over the federal government to joe biden. A lot of the states you talked about, pennsylvania, wisconsin, all of them are having disputes either legislatively or legally about how are you going to count votes . How is your vote going to be counted and validated . And the worst thing when you have all this misinformation, and all this partisanship flowing through the system would be people not trusting the outcome of the vote. So all of those things being within a margin of error, it does give donald trump a chance. The fact hes still sitting at 42, 43 . If hes right, he would say, what youre missing in those polls is 3 to 4 of people who are going to hang up the phones, theyre not going to tell you what they think, but at the end of the day theyre the ones who are going to turn out and vote for me because they like the economic side of my policies and tolerate my behavior because they like the economic consequences of it. I think the polls are interesting, i think the bigger story, the one you guys are going to hit onto are his comments about i might not trust the results of the election. Even though republican senators are saying we will, this has never happened before in our history. I cannot think of a single time in history that a sitting president has said you the public may not be able to trust the vote. Thats all democracy has. Its what made us great from beginning to end. If you say no longer you cant trust it and you know that he has this ability to get people to think what he thinks. At least 40 of the country moves with him when he believes something. I dont think its hyperbolic for us to plan what happens if 40 of the country doesnt believe the results. And katty, the president reiterated the position yesterday saying hes not sure we can have an honest election. He wont answer the question about honoring the results and transferring the power if he were to lose the election. So the answer to the question of why hes doing all that lies in these polls. If texas is tied, if georgia is tied, if hes tied in iowa, he has real reason for concern and to sow doubt about the outcome. What do you see when you look at these numbers put together with the National Polling of this week that shows a ten point spread in a couple of different polls between joe biden and donald trump. What does this signal to you about five and a half weeks to election day . Weve had the most tumultuous Election Year i can remember. We had the pandemic, then the black lives matter movement, then law and order, then fires outwest, then hurricanes in the east, then we had the death of Supreme Court justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg. And what happens . The polls stay the same. The actual race between joe biden and donald trump doesnt seem to change very much. Whatever is happening, whatever external factors are going on. So donald trump is looking at these polls, looking particular at georgia, at texas i imagine as the race is tightening, and thinking what can i do to minimize peoples votes. We dont know whether donald trump is really planning after election day to hang on whatever happens to the white house and refuse to leave. Hes probably planning some kind of litigation if theres a close race but in a sense hes already doing the job he wants to do, which is depressing voter turnout. Because there have been polls shown when democrats believe the vote is going to be fraudulent or they believe its going to be stolen in some way, its more lick li likely to make democrats not turn out to vote rather than republicans. Look at what president putin wants to do when he meddles with elections. What he really wants to do is sow doubt about the process. He wants to undermine the democratic process itself. He wants it to make it look weak and chaotic and corrupt. When donald trump says im not going to respect it or i may not leave or theres going to be a fight. Hes doing almost exactly the same thing, sowing doubt in peoples minds. And then you think am i going to turn out and vote, its a long line, i have to be at work. Theres the coronavirus, im not sure its safe. And anyway, the president said its going to be corrupt and not going to work. Maybe i dont want to vote. You know, kasie hunt, i was talking about ohio being a big surprise that joe biden is ahead by five points in ohio. Again, thats certainly just a snapshot of the electorate, just one moment in time, but that one moment in time happens to be immediately after the death of Ruth Bader Ginsburg and donald trump and Mitch Mcconnell saying they were going to shove through another Federalist Society nominee. Which again, if you look at the swing states and the numbers doesnt seem to work out very well for them in the end. Especially because the areas, and i know youve been reporting on this all year, the areas that donald trump and republicans have the biggest problem are the loss of suburban voters, women, more educated voters. But heres another state if youre on the Trump Campaign, they should have the alarms flashing. Thats iowa. Can we put up those iowa numbers, alex, that show donald trump losing 45 to 42 . Again, lets just say this is in the margin of error of iowa. 45 to 42 . Those are likely voters, Ruth Bader Ginsburg died on the 18th, so the night of the 18th, 19th, 20th, 21st, 22nd, five days they talked to iowa voters. You take this poll in tandem with anns poll this week