With regards to hurricanes and fires and the tremendous forest fires all over. We had very big numbers, unexpectedly big numbers. 25 years, ive been in this business, ive never heard an increasing deficit blamed on hurricanes and forest fires. The president had vowed to bring the deficits down. He started today by ordering his cabinet secretaries to cut their agency budgets, across the board, by 5 . Not clear, by the way, if that includes defense. I want to have a conversation about this, because this is really important, especially right now as we head into Midterm Elections. Jared bernstein joins me, senior fellow for the center on budget and policy priorities and a cnbc contributor. Also with me, cnbc editor at large, john harwood. Now, jared, you and i have talked, particularly after the last recession, when you and many other people felt that there are moments in time when an increased deficit is a good thing. Those moments in time often come when there is a need for government stimulus and when Interest Rates are particularly low, to be able to take advantage of that in some fashion. But thats not a view that republicans shared at the time. Correct. Their view on this is completely upside down, in terms of the economics of fiscal policy. And by that i mean, theyre engaged in something weve never done before, which is really very significant, fiscal stimulus through the tax cuts, also the spending, but mostly the tax cuts s, at a time when e economy is already closing in on full employment. And the key point that i drill down in a piece that i wrote today for the Washington Post is that the republicans have broken the connection between Economic Growth and lower budget deficits, because historically, wherever weve had an Unemployment Rate this low, the budget deficit has averaged at just about zero as a percent of gdp, besides now, at negative 4 . And by the way, john harwood. We had this. We had a time when we actually took in more money than we spent. And had we gone down that road, we may have been able to keep budget deficits at zero. But you know, who knows . Then a financial crisis comes along. Generally, financial crises and wars have led us into bigger deficits. Its unusual, as jared says, to be in a time when we are in relative fiscal prosperity, although its not distributed as well as we would like it to be, relative fiscal prosperity, not war, not recession, to be increasing our deficits the way were doing so under this republican congress. Its completely unusual. And remember, because its so unusual and because republicans have spent so much time ripping president obama for deficits when he was president , they needed to create a fiction that their tax cut was not going to increase the deficit. So President Trump, his treasury secretary, his National Economic council director, the leaders of congress all said, our tax cut is not going to increase the deficit. That was false and now its been shown to be false. And what we saw from the president today with his statement at the cabinet meeting, about 5 cuts, that is simply a political gesture meant to cover the embarrassment of the pledges that theyve made being proven untrue. All right. Jared, you have been on this show with me or with stephanie, where weve had republicans who were arguing for the tax cuts. Stephanie and me have said, these numbers dont make sense. All of a sudden, everyone is going to be more profitable and everyone is going to take the extra 4,000 theyre going to get and its going to stimulate the economy and thats why theres not going to be this deficit. This government decided to reduce the amount of money that the government takes in, largely from corporations, at a time when nobody fully understood why corporations needed this particular discount. And we are seeing exactly what you and i said we would see. Yes. I had these debates ad nauseam. I remember arguing what we were going to see is a lot more stock buybacks, as opposed to some big Investment Program thats going to change the underlying growth rate of the economy. And its kind of ridiculous that we have to have this, you know, breaking news tax cuts lead to revenue losses and much larger budget deficits. We all knew this was going to happen. This is the same supplyside trickledown ferry dust that republicans have been banking on for decades now. And by the way, two historical points that have come out of the conversation. It happens to be the case that the last fiscal year, when Unemployment Rate was 4 was the year 2,000. 20 2018, 4 . Unemployment rate, 4 . In 2000, because the tax code wasnt broken, it was still connected to Economic Growth, we actually had a budget surplus. This year, we have a large and growing budget deficit. And so, yes, it is time to stop kidding ourselves and making up stories about fiscal fairy tales and actually get away from all of this really reckless policy. It would be something if we didnt all see this coming. But economists across the political spectrum all had the same response to what was going to happen. Ali . Guys, ive got to go here, but thanks very much for joining me. John harwood, Jared Bernstein at the center on budget and policy priorities now, while flooding the air waves with several impromptu media appearances, President Trump told reporters, quote, im not going to tell you in response to questions as to whether he has asked the fbi to help investigate the death of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi. He also said this. Why not send the fbi in to figure all of this out . Well, he was ant a citizen this country, for one thing. And were going to determine that. And you dont know whether or not we have, do you . Well, i do you know whether or not weve sent the fbi . Have you sent the fbi . Im not going to tell you. By the way, Law Enforcement in this country deals with everybody, whether youre a citizen or not. So the idea that hes not a citizen so were not getting the fbi involved, he was a u. S. Resident. Those comments came just after he compared the controversy surrounding khashoggis disappearance to the confirmation battle of his now Supreme Court justice, brett kavanaugh. The president continues to avoid directly criticizing the Saudi Arabian government. Saudi arabias been a very important ally of ours in the middle east. We are stopping iran. Were not trying to stop were stopping iran. If you look at saudi arabia, theyre an ally and theyre a tremendous purchaser of not only military quilt, but other things. When i went there, they committed to purchase 450 billion worth of things and 110 billion worth of military. Those are the biggest orders in the history of this country. The saudis are investigating themselves, essentially. What do you think no, theyre just theyre great, very talented people. Theyre not investigating themselves. Okay, theres a lot to unpack there. With me now is nbc newss hans nichols. Two lines of argument that the president is using. That were in a fight with iran and the saudis are our bulwark against iran and they are buying this biggest military deal in history, 110 billion worth of arms, so we cant really be too tough on them, otherwise theyd buy those arms from china or russia. Look, ali, for a president who prides himself on his negotiating ability, hes just signaled what his two big priorities are, domestically and internationally. Domestically, he needs the jobs growth. He says those arms growth leads to nearly half a million jobs here in this country. And internationally, its so clear they need the saudis to count counter iran throughout the globe. So throughout the president s comments, he seems willing to give him an out. That was echoed by his secretary of state, mike pompeo. He spoke to reporters, stopping up for some fuel in brussels. He also seems willing to give the saudis the benefit of the doubt. Told me they were going to conduct a author re, complete, transparent investigation. They made a commitment to, to hold anyone connected to any wrongdoing that may be found accountable for that, whether they are a senior officer, official. Did they say that mr. Khashoggis alive or dead . I dont want to talk about any of the facts. They didnt want to, either. And that they want to have the opportunity to complete this investigation in a thorough way. Do you talk about repercussions in case the saudis are involved . We talked about the importance of completing the investigation. Ali, both the wall street journal and the New York Times reporting that there are grizzly tapes, the final moments of mr. Khashoggis life. If those tapes do exist, and the journal says theyve already been handed over, this studied indifference, this idea that the saudis really have nothing to hide in all of this, thats going to be a lot more difficult if those tapes do come out. One final note. Secretary mnuchin is still scheduled over at the Treasury Department to go to saudi arabia for this big investor conference. A spokesperson telling Bloomberg News hes still planning to attend, but tomorrow they will revisit that. Thats also tomorrow when mike pompeo comes back to washington. The president says he wants to hear from him. Soi so i would look to tomorrow to see whether or not mnuchin does cancel his trip for an indication of what kind of response were going to get from the white house. Hans nichols, thank you for your reporting from the white house. At the heart of this discussion is the rise of saudi arabias de facto leader, crowned prince salman bin salman. Surrounded by yes men who saw surprising suppressing dissent as part of a media war and rattled by the reversal of his dreams for economic reform, mbs moved toward the fateful moment when khashoggi entered the saudi consulate in istanbul. When the brave journalist opened the door, he began a catastrophic process that has now put mbs own future in question. Joining me now is the columnist who wrote that piece, david ignatius, a close colleague of Jamal Khashoggis. David, thank you for being with us here. How do you see this unfolding . Well, i think were now into the decisive phase in which the United States needs to pressure saudi arabia to conduct a real investigation, as complete and transparent as possible. And i think the United States, starting with the president , needs to say, your continued support from the United States, our relationship, which has gone on for so many decades, depends on your you doing your part to get to the bottom of this. Im told that the comments yesterday by senator lindsey graham, in which he said, if im quoting him correctly, he, meaning the crowned prince, mohammad bin salman, got this guy, our correspondent, Jamal Khashoggi, murdered, has become viral in the arab world. Its everywhere. Everybody is talking about the statement that was made by a senator whos known to be very close to donald trump. That shows you the impact that american words can have. And im just you know, were all waiting to see what secretary of state pompeo will say when he gets back about the status of this investigation and what the u. S. Position is. Are you surprised by the degree to which the president seems to be doing saudis pr work in washington and even mike pompeo, who said to those reporters on the tarmac, i dont want to discuss the facts. We werent discussing the facts. We seem to be giving saudi arabia a lot of cover. And by extension, david, we are giving cover to every regime that does not respect human rights or violates press freedoms. Its a scary day for dissidents or critics around the world, to say, we can snatch you in somebody elses country and do something bad to you. So, we take this very personally at the Washington Post. This was our colleague and our friend. And he was kidnapped, seized, and we believe that he was murdered in a brutal fashion. So, for us, its absolutely critical that the u. S. Government take this seriously. But beyond our interest in this, Jamal Khashoggi was a permanent u. S. Resident. That means that in legal terms, he was, i think the term of ours is, a u. S. Person. He may not have been a citizen, but there are certain obligations that our government has when it receives information about a threat to a u. S. Person. Was that information received . What was done . Who acted on it . The beginning of a long series of questions that we want to put to the government, as they think about this. But, second point i would make, briefly. If youre concerned about saudi arabia, as a longtime friend and ally of the United States, its all the more important for the cloud that is now over saudi arabia, thats led every major financial potential investor in the kingdom to pull back from this meeting that was planned in riyadh, that secretary of the treasury, mnuchin, may or may not go to, its essential to remove that cloud if youre going to get the money into the kingdom thats going to keep the place afloat. So theres a profound interest, precisely because saudi arabia has traditionally been an important ally in confronting this directly. David, good to talk to you. Thank you for joining us. David ignatius is a columnist at the Washington Post and a close colleague of Jamal Khashoggi. Coming up, midterms are now less than three weeks away. Democrats are laser focused on taking back control of congress. Steve kornacki joins me to look at the big board. Plus, Recreational Marijuana now legal across canada. Well take a look at the new rules on cannabis that take effect today and a new law that will help people who have been convicted of possession before. Youre watching msnbc. Possessie youre watching msnbc. Hi, im joan lunden with a place for mom, the nations largest seniorliving referral service. For the past five years, ive spoken with hundreds of families and visited seniorcare communities around the country. And ive got to tell you, todays seniorliving communities are better than ever. 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All right. Were just 20 days from the allimportant muchanticipated Midterm Elections. The president is already preparing in the event that his party doesnt come through with the big wins. Hes already told the Associated Press that he will not look at a republican loss as a referendum on his presidency. He added that the people hes endorsed have, according to him, gone up in polls 40 or 50 points. Im pretty sure my next guest can confirm, that is not entirely true. Joining me now, steve kornacki, Nbc News National Political correspondent. So, that put that aside. The president is setting the table for a potential republican loss. We know the democrats need that number, 23 seats in the house. Youve shown us and weve talked about all of those republican seats that they can gain. There are democratic seats in peril. Right. And i think that is the key thing to keep in mind here, ali. Because, again, 23 is the target for democrats. Weve gone through, there are dozens of targets out there for democrats that they could use to get to that number. But one complicating factor is this. That number could also go up a little bit, so heres what we mean. This right here, these are the districts out there where republicans think they have a chance to take democratic seats. You know, its not that deep of a list. Compared to the democrats, this is a fraction of what the democrats think they can flip. But every one of these, if republicans were able to flip any of these, would increase that number that democrats need. Let me zoom in and give you an example here. The eighth district of minnesota. You can see, this is sort of the iron range duluth. Lets go a little bit deeper on that and show you what we mean here. Theres a better map of it. Duluth kind of the anchor city there. And lets see if we can get this to work out. There are some changes to the wall. Wow, its completely dead. Oh, it worked i was coming over to help you. Alis a specialist. Something just happened. I think ali getting out of the chair might have and theres a reason were talking about bob dylan. Born in duluth. The eighth district. A little flavor. So this is the open seat. The incumbent not running for reelection. This is one of those quintessential, obama carried the district by six points. It flipped 22 points in Donald Trumps favor in 2016. So this is a democratic seat that trump won. And you see, this is the matchup for the open seat now. Check this out. Heres the latest polling. Wow, the . Has pulled ahead double digits. And so now theres talk of democrats maybe pulling out some of the financial commitment here. This would be, if this holds, a pickup. And again, from the standpoint of republicans here, if they could get minnesota 8, theres another district like it in the southern part of the state. Minnesota one, pennsylvania 14. Its kind of a conflicted thing, but because of the accounting that came with that new map, this will count as a pickup here. There are a couple of plac