The anti-Al Shabaab offensive has the wind in its sails, but maintaining its momentum presents the President with deep problems, The humanitarian situation will remain dire in 2023. Any rains that do come cannot restore an already devastated ecosystem and emergency aid to the starving will still be hampered by military operations in rural areas and terror attacks by Al Shabaab in the urban centres north of Mogadishu. Only Somaliland and Puntland can rely with confidence on obtaining food aid.