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The African Union is delaying its troop withdrawal and government tactics are questioned after its anti-Al Shabaab offensive suffered a heavy reverse, Nine months ago, when President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud announced a pause in its hitherto successful anti-Al Shabaab offensive, prospects were good. Unusual clan alliances and pressures from the drought combined against the jihadists, and the President believed one more military heave would bring success. ....
Despite marked successes in its war against Al Shabaab, the government s campaign has been weakened by the regional authorities competing priorities, While the combined offensives against Al Shabaab in Hirshabelle and Galmudug have been drawing attention, the Federal Member States (FMS) and the Somali Federal Government (SFG) gathered for a National Consultative Meeting in Baydhabo on 14 March to take stock of its counter insurgency campaign. ....
The anti-Al Shabaab offensive has the wind in its sails, but maintaining its momentum presents the President with deep problems, The humanitarian situation will remain dire in 2023. Any rains that do come cannot restore an already devastated ecosystem and emergency aid to the starving will still be hampered by military operations in rural areas and terror attacks by Al Shabaab in the urban centres north of Mogadishu. Only Somaliland and Puntland can rely with confidence on obtaining food aid. ....
The recent bomb attack in the capital reveals weakness in Al Shabaab, which is at its lowest military ebb for years, The horrific Al Shabaab bombing in Mogadishu on 29 October which killed 100 and wounded more than 400 showed the jihadists defiance in the face of President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud s new government, which has promised to redouble the counter-insurgency campaign, intelligence sources are saying. ....