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BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Real Yield July 14, 2024 - Vimarsana News

BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Real Yield July 14, 2024

There is a little bit of a split in the dots. They are honest differences of opinion and how vulnerable the u. S. Economy is. On one hand, certain parts of growth, especially domestically, that are holding up. The economy is doing well viewed well. You can make the argument that the fed should not do anything. On the other hand, you have trade war, geopolitical risks. Capex spending is going down. The fed was too tight. You will find more and more divisions in the committee. Want to see more cuts by the fed. Jonathan joining me here in new york city, priya misra, diana amoa, and krishna memani...

BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Real Yield July 14, 2024 - Vimarsana News

BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Real Yield July 14, 2024

A fractured fed meets a wall of skepticism. There is a lot of dissension in the ranks. A division 73. I am surprised bullard went as far as to dissent. There is a little bit of a split in the dots. There are honest differences of opinion in how vulnerable the u. S. Economy is. On one hand, certain parts of growth, especially domestically, that are holding up. You can make the argument that the fed should not do anything. On the other hand, you have the trade war, geopolitical risks. Manufacturing is slowing down. Capex spending lower. You will find more and more divisions in the committee. The...

BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Real Yield July 14, 2024 - Vimarsana News

BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Real Yield July 14, 2024

Huge rally in the bond market. Huge inflows, onesided trades. Insatiable demand for yield. The message is that things are slowing down. Slowing down. Growth is slowing everywhere. Slowing Global Growth. The fed is not cutting fast enough to keep up with the falling growth outlook. They are actually behind the curve. Likely to be behind the curve. The market is crying out for more. We are looking at extraordinary times in bond markets. Jonathan joining me from london is james athey. In new york, greg staples, priya misra of td securities. Priya, what a month it has been. The 10year treasury, pe...

BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Real Yield July 14, 2024 - Vimarsana News

BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Real Yield July 14, 2024

What you are seeing is the pricing out of recession risk. We dont see recession coming right away. Maybe august was that peak fear. Chomped a lot of wood in august, sentiment horrible. Sentiment is incredibly bearish. Maybe we are coming out of it. I think the fed needs to confirm that but maybe we have had a mini cycle. We are set up perfectly for a rally in risk assets into the fall. If we could just hold earnings, we get a valuation story in equities. That is the pain trade. If you want the bull market to die, show me a recession. Until you can produce it, you have to take me over. No reces...

BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Real Yield July 14, 2024 - Vimarsana News

BLOOMBERG Bloomberg Real Yield July 14, 2024

Cycle. Fears about a u. S. Recession are not showing in this report. Very hard to get a recession in the next 12 months. Higher wages. The labor market is holding in. We were worried about manufacturing and we saw the numbers are hanging fine. The jury is out in the manufacturing sector. Maybe there are some budding signs of some weakness in the employment sector at the fringes. The question is where it goes from here. Jonathan joining me around the table, my guests. If the payroll report doesnt change what you sour carless of what you thought going into the payrolls report, not a game changer...