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New mathematical model predicts the spread of COVID-19 Scientists at the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Brookhaven National Laboratory and the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign (UIUC) have developed a new mathematical model for predicting how epidemics such as COVID-19 spread. This model not only accounts for individuals' varying biological susceptibility to infection but also their levels of social activity, which naturally change over time. Using their model, the team showed that a temporary state of collective immunity--which they termed "transient collective immunity"--emerged du...

Carl R. Woese Institute for Genomic Biology, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign Scientists at the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Brookhaven National Laboratory and the University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign (UIUC) have developed a new mathematical model for predicting how epidemics such as COVID-19 spread. This model not only accounts for individuals’ varying biological susceptibility to infection but also their levels of social activity, which naturally change over time. Using their model, the team showed that a temporary state of collective immunity–which they termed “tr...

Share Scientists developed a model showing that a fragile, temporary state of immunity emerged during the early epidemic but got destroyed as people changed their social behaviors over time, leading to future waves of infection Scientists modeling the spread of COVID-19 showed that a temporary state of immunity arises due to individual differences in social behaviors. This ‘transient collective immunity’—referring to when the susceptible or more social groups collectively have been infected&mdashgets destroyed as people modify their social behaviors over time. For example, someone who ...

 E-Mail IMAGE: An illustration of physically confined spaces in a porous bilayer silica film on a metal catalyst that can be used for chemical reactions. Silicon atoms are indicated by the orange... view more  Credit: Brookhaven National Laboratory UPTON, NY--Physically confined spaces can make for more efficient chemical reactions, according to recent studies led by scientists from the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE) Brookhaven National Laboratory. They found that partially covering metal surfaces acting as catalysts, or materials that speed up reactions, with thin films of silic...